Factors Associated with Housing Damage Caused by an EF4 Tornado in Rural Areas of Funing, China.

Rural areas are vulnerable to natural disasters and tend to suffer severe losses. An EF4 tornado occurred in Funing on 23 June 2016, killing 99 people, injuring at least 846 people, and destroying more than 2000 houses. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, this study explored the influencing factors between housing damage and variables of building conditions, tornado intensity, and village environmental factors. The results show that 2-story houses and masonry houses were more likely to be slightly damaged or be in a dangerous state. Furthermore, the building area was positively related to houses in two categories: slight damage (SD) and dangerous and requiring immediate repair (DR), indicating that the larger or taller the house, the more severe the damage. In terms of tornado intensity, houses classified as SD were more likely to be hit by EF4 tornados than by EF3 tornados, and houses were damaged more by EF1 or EF2 tornados. This finding demonstrates that the level of housing damage was not strongly correlated with the tornado intensity. Slightly damaged houses exhibited the highest correlation with environmental factors. The proportion of slightly damaged houses was positively correlated with the water area in the village, unlike the proportion of houses in the DR and unable to be repaired (UR) categories. Moreover, the larger the water area of a village, the less housing damage it suffered. These findings provide new insights into minimizing housing damage in wind disasters to improve disaster prevention planning in rural areas.

Urban Seismic Risk Assessment by Integrating Direct Economic Loss and Loss of Statistical Life: An Empirical Study in Xiamen, China.

The growing densities of human and economic activities in cities lead to more severe consequences when a catastrophe such as an earthquake occurs. This study on urban seismic risk evaluation is carried out from the perspective of the direct loss caused by disasters in urban areas, including the measurement of both the expected direct economic loss and loss of life in the face of characteristic earthquakes. Aiming to estimate, quantify and visualize the earthquake risk in each unit of urban space, this research proposes to assess urban seismic risk by integrating the direct economic loss and the loss of statistical life in a disaster, with consideration of diverse earthquake frequencies. Empirical research of the proposed assessment framework and corresponding models is then conducted to measure urban seismic risk in Xiamen, China. Key findings of the case study include the expected direct economic losses and the expected number of deaths in three characteristic earthquakes, their estimated spatial distributions, the average loss of the value of a statistical life (VSL) of one average local resident and the overall seismic risk distributions in Xiamen.

How Can Cities Respond to Flood Disaster Risks under Multi-Scenario Simulation? A Case Study of Xiamen, China.

Flood disasters often have serious impacts on cities. Disaster prevention and mitigation schemes for flood disasters must be based on risk assessment. We constructed an indicator system for flood disaster risk assessment from the aspects of hazard factors, sensitivity to the environment, disaster vulnerability, flood disaster prevention, and resilience. Then we add the precipitation factor as a scenario parameter to the assessment of flood disasters, in order to assess the flood disaster risk under annual average precipitation scenarios, multi-year flood season average precipitation scenarios, and large typhoon precipitation scenarios. Xiamen is one of the cities with more serious flood disasters. We select Xiamen as an example and refer to existing indicators of flood disaster assessment. The results show that: (1) the coefficient of variation of flood disasters in Xiamen under the impact of large-scale typhoon precipitation is large; (2) the drainage and flood control capacity of Xiamen is generally insufficient, and the risk in the old city is high; (3) there are many flood-prone locations in Xiamen. Underpass interchanges, underground spaces, and urban villages have become the new key areas for flood control; and (4) the flood risk in the northern mountainous areas of Xiamen is the highest. Based on the assessment results, we further delineate the urban flood control zones and propose corresponding countermeasures. The study expands the research on flood disaster risk assessment, and also provides reference for relevant cities to deal with flood disasters.

How Can Cities Adapt to a Multi-Disaster Environment? Empirical Research in Guangzhou (China).

Urban disaster risk assessment is the most basic and important part of urban safety development. Conducting disaster prevention and mitigation on the basis of urban disaster risk assessment requires an understanding of the relationship between the city and the natural environment. This enhances the city's ability to withstand various types of disasters and achieves the development of a safe city. Based on a review of the existing literature, we propose a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for urban multi-disaster risk assessment. The multi-disaster risk assessment method includes the identification and screening of urban disasters, the assessment of individual disaster risk, and integrated urban disaster risks, the division of urban comprehensive disaster risks into several risk levels, and the determination of coping strategies. Taking Guangzhou (China) as an example, we determined the major disaster risks faced by Guangzhou, assessed the risks of individual disasters, and finally obtained the results of the comprehensive disaster risk of Guangzhou. Second, we analyzed the relationship between the disaster risk assessment and urban safety development, and proposed countermeasures and recommendations for the development of different disaster risk levels.

Urban Resources Selection and Allocation for Emergency Shelters: In a Multi-Hazard Environment.

This study explores how emergency shelters can adapt to a multi-hazard environment by geographic information system (GIS) and takes Guangzhou as a case for analysis. The physical suitability of the overall urban resources was first assessed by aiming to select the suitable resources and safe locations for emergency shelters in the context of multiple disasters. Afterward, by analyzing the scale and spatial distribution of affected areas and populations under different types of disaster scenarios, the demand for different kinds of shelters were predicted. Lastly, taking into account the coverage of the affected people, shelters were allocated according to different conditions in the districts. This work will hopefully provide a reference for the construction of emergency shelters and help form emergency operations in order to mitigate the impact of hazards. The issues identified in the study need to be further studied in medium or small-scale cities.

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

Comparative research on NIMBY risk acceptability between Chinese and Japanese college students.

Along with the progressive acceleration of urbanization, the need to identify potentially troublesome "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) facilities in the city is inevitable. To resolve NIMBY conflict, it is important to know people's NIMBY risk acceptability for these facilities. A questionnaire survey was used among Chinese and Japanese college students to identify NIMBY risk acceptability. LISREL was used to construct a structural equation model to analyze the difference in NIMBY risk acceptability between the Chinese and Japanese college students. Factors that may affect NIMBY risk acceptability were analyzed: "perceiving utility," "perceiving risk," "trust in government," "reasonable compensation," and "procedural justice." The findings show that Japanese students' concerns were greater than Chinese students' concerns. Perceiving utility and perceiving risk were the most important factors that affect people's NIMBY risk acceptability, followed by procedural justice, trust in government, and reasonable compensation. There is a difference between the different cultural backgrounds in confronting the risk: Chinese students focus more on the reputation and value of real estate, while Japanese students pay more attention to environmental pollution and damage to health. Furthermore, cultural influences play a role in students' risk perception. To improve the risk acceptability for NIMBY facilities and provide a basis for resolving NIMBY conflicts, it is necessary to ensure the benefits of the NIMBY facility while reducing environmental pollution. The findings of this study may be of interest for policy makers and practitioners to devise future NIMBY strategies.

Risk perception in Northeast Asia.

Multi-country surveys of the public's perception of risk using the same questionnaire were sequentially implemented from April to December 2006 in Japan, China, and South Korea. Statistical analyses, such as traditional mean tests, rank order tests, two-step cluster analysis, and principal component analysis were used to analyze the survey data. The results revealed that Chinese tend to be more tolerant of risk than Japanese and South Koreans. In all three countries, the threats of global warming, cancer, traffic accidents, and fire were perceived as higher-order risks, while infectious diseases and threats from high technology were perceived as lower-order risks. Looking across the entire multi-country sample, we found that Chinese participants perceived greater risk in typhoons, SARS, and drugs; Japanese saw greater risk from gas explosions and potential threats coming over the Internet; while people in all three countries identified earthquakes as a primary risk. These differences in risk perception reflect the natural and socioeconomic conditions in the three countries. Although the study did not emphasize differences in risk perception within countries based on demographic factors such as education, age, and gender, we found that differences based on education and age tended to be greater in China and South Korea than in Japan. We also found that men perceived greater risks than women in China and South Korea, while in Japan it was the opposite with women perceiving greater risks. A comparison of these results with previous studies reveals a bias in past studies toward student samples and indicates the need for more representative samples in multi-country surveys.

Effects of risk representation and scope on willingness to pay for reduced risks: evidence from Tokyo Bay, Japan.

When applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) in risk reduction studies, some studies report that willingness to pay (WTP) is insensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction while other studies do not. On the other hand, social-psychological research has shown that the affect heuristic biases judgments on probability, relative frequency, and risk. This article examines both magnitude (or scope) effect and affect heuristic (or representation) effect on WTP for risk reduction measures against tsunamis by introducing two experimental (i.e., absolute and relative) systems with four different representations to evaluate public behaviors in two different scenarios of risk reduction. Two common denominators (100 and 10,000) are introduced into absolute risk reduction representation (i.e., "of every 100 persons, from present 2 deaths to 1") to form different formats (i.e., "of every 10,000 persons from 200 to 100," and "of every 100,000 persons from 2,000 deaths to 1,000"). There is little evidence that WTP estimates are sufficiently sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction, but relative risk reduction representations may be better than the absolute one given in CVM mail surveys when the risk is small. There is a statistically insignificant effect of risk reduction representations on respondent frequency, but mixed effects on the monetary values of WTP at the level of 0.05. The representation effect of absolute risk reduction on the WTP value varies with the common denominator. The larger the common denominator, the less the WTP to reduce the risk of tsunamis, and the significance probability is improved to less than the level of 0.05 when the common denominator becomes large enough. The findings suggest that improved methods are required for estimating the rates of tradeoff between fatality risk and other goods among consumers.

Flood risk acceptability and economic value of evacuation.

The economic value of evacuation and its relationship with flood risk acceptability in Japan were studied by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM). Flood risk acceptability here refers to the extent to which people accept the occurrence of floods, in terms of scale and frequency. The economic value of evacuation refers to people's willingness to pay (WTP) for avoiding evacuation inconvenience because of its inconvenience and the potential for certain losses as a result of evacuation. Our main finding was that over half of the people (56%) who actually evacuated in a real flood situation reported inconvenience. The greatest inconveniences were the shortages of information and food. Evacuation inconvenience can be regarded as an important factor causing the low rate of evacuation in Japan. The WTP for avoiding current inconvenience was approximately half of the estimated economic value of evacuation, implying that the current budget for evacuation is too small and should be increased to improve the conditions of evacuation sites. The economic value of evacuation can be taken into consideration in the risk assessment process in order to evaluate the efficiency of risk reduction measures. Flood risk acceptability and home ownership are two major statistically significantly determinants of the WTP. Considering that those who accept flood risk have a lower WTP for flood risk control (ex ante measures) than those who reject it, it is reasonable to think that there may be a tradeoff between the public WTPs for ex ante or ex post measures.

Dynamic efficiency analysis of flood prevention investment in Japan

In Japan, the need for investment in public works, including flood disaster prevention facilities, such as dykes and dams, is widely discussed at present. This paper aims to evaluate the comprehesive efficiency of flood disaster prevention investment from 1955 to 1999 by developing and applyng an evaluation model that focuses specifically on relative success in the prevention of human and economic losses. Results of our analysis have carified some important issues currently being discussed in Japan. Firstly, a one-way-layout analysis of variance shows there to be a statistically significant diffenrence only between the period of 1955-1961 and those of 1962-1967, 1968-1983 and 1984-1999. The average values of normalized flood losses decreased greatly between the 1955-1961 period an the 1984-1999 period. Secondly, the ratio of human loss to total loss caused by floods in Japan may be less than 10

. This ratio showed an increasing trend before 1970 and then stabilized at around 8

after 1970. The proportion of intangible effect to total loss increasedfrom less than 10

before the 1970s to aproximately 20

after that period. Finally, flood prevention investment in Japan effectively reduced losses caused by flooding before the 1960s; however, since the 1980s, investment has changed from an efficient mode, not only from the economic standpoint, but also fom thet of total flood loss saving. We conclude that is necessary to explore the usefulness of the new investments and to develop improved strategies for flood disaster prevention from a risk management viewpoint