[Analysis of 28 day-mortality risk factors in sepsis patients and construction and validation of predictive model].

OBJECTIVE: To construct and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of 28-day mortality in sepsis patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. 281 sepsis patients admitted to the department of intensive care unit (ICU) of the 940th Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of PLA from January 2017 to December 2022 were selected as the research subjects. The patients were divided into a training set (197 cases) and a validation set (84 cases) according to a 7 : 3 ratio. The general information, clinical treatment measures and laboratory examination results within 24 hours after admission to ICU were collected. Patients were divided into survival group and death group based on 28-day outcomes. The differences in various data were compared between the two groups. The optimal predictive variables were selected using Lasso regression, and univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors influencing the mortality of sepsis patients and to establish a nomogram model. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to evaluate the nomogram model. RESULTS: Out of 281 cases of sepsis, 82 cases died with a mortality of 29.18%. The number of patients who died in the training and validation sets was 54 and 28, with a mortality of 27.41% and 33.33% respectively. Lasso regression, univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis screened for 5 independent predictors associated with 28-day mortality. There were use of vasoactive drugs [odds ratio (OR) = 5.924, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.244-44.571, P = 0.043], acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II: OR = 1.051, 95%CI was 1.000-1.107, P = 0.050), combined with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS: OR = 17.298, 95%CI was 5.517-76.985, P < 0.001), neutrophil count (NEU: OR = 0.934, 95%CI was 0.879-0.988, P = 0.022) and oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2: OR = 0.994, 95%CI was 0.988-0.998, P = 0.017). A nomogram model was constructed using the independent predictive factors mentioned above, ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the nomogram model was 0.899 (95%CI was 0.856-0.943) and 0.909 (95%CI was 0.845-0.972) for the training and validation sets respectively. The C-index was 0.900 and 0.920 for the training and validation sets respectively, with good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshoe tests both showed P > 0.05, indicating good calibration. Both DCA and CIC plots demonstrate the model's good clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: The use of vasoactive, APACHE II score, comorbid MODS, NEU and PaO2/FiO2 are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. The nomogram model based on these 5 indicators has a good predictive ability for the occurrence of mortality in sepsis patients.

[Short-term survival survey and risk factors analysis of death in sepsis patients in intensive care unit].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the 28-day survival status and influencing factors of adult patients with sepsis, providing reference for early diagnosis of sepsis prognosis and reducing sepsis mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. A total of 160 adult patients with sepsis in the department of intensive care unit of the 940th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force of PLA from January 2021 to December 2022 were enrolled. The general information, laboratory examination results within 24 hours after admission, clinical treatment measures, and prognosis of patients were collected. Univariate analysis and binary multivariate Logistic regression were performed to screen the risk factors that might affect the short-term prognosis of patients with sepsis. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to analyze the predictive value of various risk factors on the short-term death risk of sepsis patients. RESULTS: A total of 160 patients with sepsis were enrolled, of whom 91 survived in 28 days, and 69 died with a mortality of 43.12%. Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group were older, more severe, had higher blood lactic acid (Lac) level, and had more complications such as hypertension and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). A total of 22 related factors were statistically significant: age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, length of hospital stay, Lac, interleukin-6 (IL-6), fibrinogen (FIB), international normalized ratio (INR), ratio of prothrombin time (PT) to healthy people, prothrombin activity (PTA), PT, thrombin time (TT), oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), ratio of AST to alanine amninotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), site of infection, history of hypertension, concurrent MODS, implementation of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), and treatment with vasoactive drugs. Combined with the results of the univariate analysis, variables that might affect the short-term prognosis of septic patients were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The results showed that APACHE II score ≥ 20 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.106, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.003-1.219], Lac ≥ 5 mmol/L (OR = 1.430, 95%CI was 1.041-1.964), combined with hypertension (OR = 13.879, 95%CI was 1.082-178.016), concurrent MODS (OR = 98.139, 95%CI was 18.252-527.672) was an independent risk factor for 28-day death in adult septic patients (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the combination of the four indicators including APACHE II score, Lac, combined with hypertension, concurrent MODS, had predictive value for short-term outcomes in patients with sepsis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was higher than that of the 4 indicators alone [AUC (95%CI): 0.952 (0.918-0.986) vs. 0.745 (0.670-0.820), 0.816 (0.748-0.883), 0.608 (0.518-0.699), 0.868 (0.810-0.927)], the sensitivity was 94.2%, and the specificity was 90.1%. CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II score within 24 hours, Lac, combined with hypertension, and concurrent MODS are independent risk factors for short-term mortality in adult septic patients in ICU. The combination of these indicators can make meaningful early clinical judgments on the short-term prognosis of septic patients, thereby reducing the mortality.