Optimal Targets of the First 24-h Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in Patients with Cerebral Injury: Data from the MIMIC-III and IV Database.

BACKGROUND: It is generally believed that hypercapnia and hypocapnia will cause secondary injury to patients with craniocerebral diseases, but a small number of studies have shown that they may have potential benefits. We assessed the impact of partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO2) on in-hospital mortality of patients with craniocerebral diseases. The hypothesis of this research was that there is a nonlinear correlation between PaCO2 and in-hospital mortality in patients with craniocerebral diseases and that mortality rate is the lowest when PaCO2 is in a normal range. METHODS: We identified patients with craniocerebral diseases from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care third and fourth edition databases. Cox regression analysis and restricted cubic splines were used to examine the association between PaCO2 and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Nine thousand six hundred and sixty patients were identified. A U-shaped association was found between the first 24-h PaCO2 and in-hospital mortality in all participants. The nadir for in-hospital mortality risk was estimated to be at 39.5 mm Hg (p for nonlinearity < 0.001). In the subsequent subgroup analysis, similar results were found in patients with traumatic brain injury, metabolic or toxic encephalopathy, subarachnoid hemorrhage, cerebral infarction, and other encephalopathies. Besides, the mortality risk reached a nadir at PaCO2 in the range of 35-45 mm Hg. The restricted cubic splines showed a U-shaped association between the first 24-h PaCO2 and in-hospital mortality in patients with other intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral tumor. Nonetheless, nonlinearity tests were not statistically significant. In addition, Cox regression analysis showed that PaCO2 ranging 35-45 mm Hg had the lowest death risk in most patients. For patients with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy and intracranial infections, the first 24-h PaCO2 and in-hospital mortality did not seem to be correlated. CONCLUSIONS: Both hypercapnia and hypocapnia are harmful to most patients with craniocerebral diseases. Keeping the first 24-h PaCO2 in the normal range (35-45 mm Hg) is associated with lower death risk.

The learning curve in blind bedside postpyloric placement of spiral tubes: data from a multicentre, prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to quantify the learning curve for the blind bedside postpyloric placement of a spiral tube in critically ill patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 127 consecutive experiences of three intensivists who performed comparable procedures of blind bedside postpyloric placement of a spiral tube subsequent to failed self-propelled transpyloric migration in a multicentre study. Each intensivist's cases were divided chronologically into two groups for analysis. The assessment of the learning curve was based on efficiency and safety outcomes. RESULTS: All intensivists achieved postpyloric placement for over 80% of their patients. The junior intensivist showed major improvement in both efficiency and safety outcomes, and the learning curve for both outcomes was approximately 20 cases. The junior intensivist showed a significant increase in the success rate of proximal jejunum placement and demonstrated a substantial decrease in the major adverse tube-associated events rate. The time to insertion significantly decreased in each intensivist as case experience accumulated. CONCLUSIONS: Blind bedside postpyloric placement of a spiral tube involves a significant learning curve, indicating that this technique could be readily acquired by intensivists with no previous experience using an adequate professional training programme.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting self-propelled postpyloric placement of spiral nasoenteric tube in the critically ill: Mixed retrospective and prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Equipment-aided or experience-dependent methods for postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement are not so readily accessible in the critically ill setting. Self-propelled postpyloric placement of a spiral nasoenteric tube can serve as an alternative approach. However, the success rate of this method is relatively low despite using prokinetics. This study aims to develop a user-friendly nomogram incorporating clinical markers to individually predict the probability of successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement and facilitate intensivists with improved decision-making before tube insertion. METHODS: Patients consecutively recruited in the stage between May 2012 through December 2016 constituted the development cohort for retrospective analysis to internally test the nomogram, and patients in the stage between January 2017 through March 2018 constituted the validation cohort for prospective analysis to external validate the nomogram. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was firstly performed in the development cohort by a backward stepwise method to identify the best-fit model, from which a nomogram was obtained. The nomogram was validated in the independent external validation cohort concerning discrimination, calibration. A decision curve analysis was also performed to evaluate the net benefit of insertion decision with the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 364 and 119 patients, 52.7% and 55.5% with successful postpyloric placement, were included in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Predictors contained in the prediction nomogram included primary diagnosis, APACHE II score, AGI grade. The derived model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.809 (95%CI, 0.765-0.853) and good calibration. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort also gave good discrimination with an AUROC of 0.776 (95%CI, 0.694-0.859) and good calibration. The decision curve analysis of the nomogram provided better net benefit than the alternate options (insert-all or insert-none). CONCLUSIONS: A prediction nomogram that incorporates primary diagnosis, together with APACHE II score and AGI grade can be conveniently used to facilitate the pre-insertion individualized prediction of postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement in critically ill patients.

Establishing Decision Trees for Predicting Successful Postpyloric Nasoenteric Tube Placement in Critically Ill Patients.

BACKGROUND: Despite the use of prokinetic agents, the overall success rate for postpyloric placement via a self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube is quite low. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in the intensive care units of 11 university hospitals from 2006 to 2016 among adult patients who underwent self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. Success was defined as postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement confirmed by abdominal x-ray scan 24 hours after tube insertion. Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), simple classification and regression trees (SimpleCart), and J48 methodologies were used to develop decision tree models, and multiple logistic regression (LR) methodology was used to develop an LR model for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of these models. RESULTS: Successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement was confirmed in 427 of 939 patients enrolled. For predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement, the performance of the 3 decision trees was similar in terms of the AUCs: 0.715 for the CHAID model, 0.682 for the SimpleCart model, and 0.671 for the J48 model. The AUC of the LR model was 0.729, which outperformed the J48 model. CONCLUSION: Both the CHAID and LR models achieved an acceptable discrimination for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement and were useful for intensivists in the setting of self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion.

Blind bedside postpyloric placement of spiral tube as rescue therapy in critically ill patients: a prospective, tricentric, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Various special techniques for blind bedside transpyloric tube placement have been introduced into clinical practice. However, transpyloric spiral tube placement facilitated by a blind bedside method has not yet been reported. The objective of this prospective study was to evaluate the safety and efficiency of blind bedside postpyloric placement of a spiral tube as a rescue therapy subsequent to failed spontaneous transpyloric migration in critically ill patients. METHODS: This prospective, tricentric, observational study was conducted in the intensive care units (ICUs) of three tertiary hospitals. A total of 127 consecutive patients with failed spontaneous transpyloric spiral tube migration despite using prokinetic agents and still required enteral nutrition for more than 3 days were included. The spiral tube was inserted postpylorically using the blind bedside technique. All patients received metoclopramide intravenously prior to tube insertion. The exact tube tip position was determined by radiography. The primary efficacy endpoint was the success rate of postpyloric spiral tube placement. Secondary efficacy endpoints were success rate of a spiral tube placed in the third portion of the duodenum (D3) or beyond, success rate of placement in the proximal jejunum, time to insertion, length of insertion, and number of attempts. Safety endpoints were metoclopramide-related and major adverse tube-associated events. RESULTS: In 81.9% of patients, the spiral feeding tubes were placed postpylorically; of these, 55.1% were placed in D3 or beyond and 33.9% were placed in the proximal jejunum, with a median time to insertion of 14 min and an average number of attempts of 1.4. The mean length of insertion was 95.6 cm. The adverse event incidence was 26.0%, and no serious adverse event was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Blind bedside postpyloric placement of a spiral tube, as a rescue therapy subsequent to failed spontaneous transpyloric migration in critically ill patients, is safe and effective. This technique may facilitate the early initiation of postpyloric feeding in the ICU. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-OPN-16008206 . Registered on 1 April 2016.