Exploring the potential for improving material utilization efficiency to secure lithium supply for China's battery supply chain.

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) is the key technology for climate change mitigation. The sustainability of LIB supply chain has caused widespread concern since the material utilization efficiency of LIB supply chain has not been well investigated. This study aims to fill this research gap by conducting a dynamic material flow analysis of lithium in China from 2015 to 2021. Results indicate that within the temporal boundary, lithium flow and in-use stock grew significantly in China due to the rapid development of the EV market, with lithium flow in domestic production of basic chemicals increasing by 614% to 100 kt, end-use consumption increasing by 160% to 35 kt, and in-use stock increasing by 62% to 195 kt. China has been a net importer of lithium, of which cumulative imports and exports were 343 kt and 169 kt, respectively. In addition, 103 kt of lithium was converted to inventories or was lost during the processing from 2015 to 2021. By optimizing inventory and processing, developing substitutes for lithium for non-battery applications, and improving lithium recycling, China's net import dependency of lithium could be reduced from 27%-86% to 0%-16%. Our study demonstrates that it is urgent to improve material utilization efficiency so that the lithium resource supply can be secured.

Comprehensive assessment for different ranges of battery electric vehicles: Is it necessary to develop an ultra-long range battery electric vehicle?

Some automotive companies develop battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an ultra-long range to address consumers' range anxiety. However, ultra-long-range BEVs have many problems, and whether they can truly solve consumers' range anxiety has not been studied. Thus, we build a technology-rich, bottom-up approach model to evaluate BEVs' performance, economy, and total cost of ownership (TCO) to reveal the necessity of developing ultra-long-range BEVs. The results show that the ultra-long-range BEVs' dynamic, safety, and economy performances are poor compared to short-range BEVs. Based on the TCO analysis considering battery replacement and alternative transportation costs, 400 km is the optimal range of BEVs for consumers. In addition, consumers' range anxiety is essentially anxiety about energy replenishment. Ultra-long-range BEV cannot really solve consumers' range anxiety except by reducing charging frequency. In the case of gradually improving the charging and swapping infrastructure, we believe that automotive companies do not need to develop ultra-long-range BEVs.

[Retracted] MicroRNA­758 inhibits tumorous behavior in tongue squamous cell carcinoma by directly targeting metadherin.

Following the publication of this paper, it was drawn to the Editor's attention by a concerned reader that certain of the Transwell invasion assay data shown in Fig. 5E were strikingly similar to data appearing in different form in other articles written by different authors at different research institutes, several of which have already been retracted. Owing to the fact that the contentious data in the above article had already been published prior to its submission to Molecular Medicine Reports, the Editor has decided that this paper should be retracted from the Journal. After having been in contact with the authors, they accepted the decision to retract the paper. The Editor apologizes to the readership for any inconvenience caused. [Molecular Medicine Reports 19: 1883­1890, 2019; DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2019.9805].

Effects of nine typical technologies for primary autonomous vehicles on road safety in China.

The autonomous vehicle is profoundly changing the future of transportation safety. The reduction in collisions with different injury degrees and the savings of crash-related economic costs if nine autonomous vehicle technologies were promoted to be wildly available in China are evaluated. The quantitative analysis was divided into three main parts: (1) Calculate the technical effectiveness of nine autonomous vehicle technologies in collisions through a systematic literature review; (2) Apply the technical effectiveness to estimate the potential effects on avoiding collisions and saving crash-related economic costs in China if all vehicles had these technologies; and (3) Quantify the influence of current technical limitations in speed applicability, weather applicability, light applicability, and active rate on potential effects. Definitely, these technologies have different safety benefits in different countries. The framework developed and technical effectiveness calculated in this study can be applied to evaluate the safety impact of these technologies in other countries.

Flying cars economically favor battery electric over fuel cell and internal combustion engine.

Flying cars, essentially vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (VTOL), are an emerging, disruptive technology that is expected to reshape future transportation. VTOLs can be powered by battery electric, fuel cell, or internal combustion engine, which point to entirely different needs for industry expertise, research & development, supply chain, and infrastructure supports. A pre-analysis of the propulsion technology competition is crucial to avoid potential wrong directions of research, investment, and policy making efforts. In this study, we comprehensively examined the cost competitiveness of the three propulsion technologies. Here we show that battery electric has already become the lowest-cost option for below-200-km VTOL applications, covering intra-city and short-range inter-city travels. This cost advantage can be robustly strengthened in the long term under various technology development scenarios. Battery energy density improvement is the key to reducing cost. In particular, a 600 Wh/kg battery energy density provides battery electric with all-range cost advantage, and promises high return in business. Fuel cell and internal combustion engine, under certain technology development scenarios, can obtain cost advantage in long-range applications, but face intense competition from ground transportation such as high-speed rail. The findings suggest a battery-electric-prioritized VTOL development strategy, and the necessity of developing VTOL-customized high-energy-density batteries.

Quantifying the Impact of Deployments of Autonomous Vehicles and Intelligent Roads on Road Safety in China: A Country-Level Modeling Study.

Approximately 1.35 million people lose their lives due to road traffic collisions worldwide per year. However, the variation of road safety depending on the deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AV), Intelligent Roads (IR), and Vehicle-to-Vehicle technology (V2V) is largely unknown. In this analysis, a bottom-up analytical framework was developed to evaluate the safety benefits of avoiding road injuries and reducing crash-related economic costs from the deployment of AVs, IRs, and V2Vs in China in 26 deployment scenarios from 2020 to 2050. The results indicate that compared with only deploying AVs, increasing the availability of IRs and V2V while reducing the deployment of fully AVs can achieve larger safety benefits in China. Increasing the deployment of V2V while reducing the deployment of IRs can sometimes achieve similar safety benefits. The deployment of AVs, IRs, and V2V plays different roles in achieving safety benefits. The large-scale deployment of AVs is the foundation of reducing traffic collisions; the construction of IRs would determine the upper limit of reducing traffic collisions, and the readiness of connected vehicles would influence the pace of reducing traffic collisions, which should be designed in a coordinated manner. Only six synergetic scenarios with full equipment of V2V can meet the SDG 3.6 target for reducing casualties by 50% in 2030 compared to 2020. In general, our results highlight the importance and the potential of the deployment of AVs, IRs, and V2V to reduce road fatalities and injuries. To achieve greater and faster safety benefits, the government should prioritize to the deployment of IRs and V2V. The framework developed in this study can provide practical support for decision-makers to design strategies and policies on the deployment of AVs and IRs, which can also be applied in other countries.

An Evaluation of the Safety Effectiveness and Cost of Autonomous Vehicles Based on Multivariable Coupling.

There is a need for in-depth studies of autonomous vehicle safety that evaluate the effectiveness of safety functions and different "atomic" technology combinations for vehicles and roads. In this paper, we provide a crash avoidance effectiveness evaluation model for autonomous vehicles enabled with different sensor combinations based on multiple variables of 14 different "atomic" sensing technologies on the vehicle side and road side, 52 safety functions, and 14 accident types. Meanwhile, a cost-sharing model is developed based on the traveled distance during the life cycle of vehicles and based on the traffic flow over the life cycle of roads to evaluate the unit cost per km of different "atomic" technology combinations. The results clearly show that the cost increases with the addition of "atomic" sensing technologies on the vehicle side, while an increase in crash avoidance effectiveness decreases. It is necessary to switch to V2X and to introduce roadside "atomic" technology combinations to realize better safety effectiveness at a lower cost for vehicles. In addition, a map that covers the safety effectiveness and cost per kilometer of all "atomic" technology combinations is calculated for decision-makers to select combinations under the preconditions of cost and safety.

Modeling potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global electric vehicle supply chain.

The on-going COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns cast significant impacts on global economy in the short run. Their impact on stability of global electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain and thus our climate ambition in the long run, however, remains hitherto largely unexplored. We aim to address this gap based on an integrated model framework, including assessing supply risks of 17 selected core commodities throughout the EV supply chain and further applying the supply constraints to project future EV sales until 2030. Our model results under three pandemic development scenarios indicate that if the pandemic is effectively contained before 2024, the global EV industry will recover without fundamentally scathed and thus can maintain the same growth trend as in the no-pandemic scenario by 2030. We suggest that fiscal stimulus in the postpandemic era should be directed more toward upgrading the quality of battery products, rather than expanding the production capacity.

Global Competition in the Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain: A Novel Perspective for Criticality Analysis.

With the accelerated pace of energy transition, competition in the lithium-ion battery (LIB) supply chain is intensifying across a wide scope of countries. In order to understand the potential risk derived from the competitors, this study quantifies the global competition intensities of 15 categories of LIB-related commodities, which has not been well characterized by previous criticality analysis studies. On the basis of the collected data and designed treatment techniques, the "competition index" is developed for this purpose. Here, we show that lithium hydroxides, LIBs, and lithium carbonates were the focal points of global competition in the LIB supply chain in 2019, and there will be more competition for lithium hydroxide in the future. The competition for commodities related to LIBs among Korea, Japan, and the USA are the most notable. Such insights into the global conflict potential of LIB-related commodities provide a reference for underlying competitors and corresponding transition strategies of regional industrial structures. The index developed by us complements the criticality analysis framework, which could be expanded to assess the criticality of materials relevant with other industries.

Evidence for the Crash Avoidance Effectiveness of Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Technologies.

The Intelligent and Connected Vehicle (ICV) is regarded as a high-tech solution to reducing road traffic crashes in many countries across the world. However, it is not clear how effective these technologies are in avoiding crashes. This study sets out to summarize the evidence for the crash avoidance effectiveness of technologies equipped on ICVs. In this study, three common methods for safety benefit evaluation were identified: Field operation test (FOT), safety impact methodology (SIM), and statistical analysis methodology (SAM). The advantages and disadvantages of the three methods are compared. In addition, evidence for the crash avoidance effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication Systems (V2V) are presented in the paper. More specifically, target crash scenarios and the effectiveness of technologies including FCW/AEB, ACC, LDW/LDP, BSD, IMA, and LTA are different. Overall, based on evidence from the literature, technologies on ICVs could significantly reduce the number of crashes.

Effect of Chinese Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-Credit Regulation on Passenger Cars Average Fuel Consumption Analysis.

The large sales volume and a great number of passenger car ownership in China have brought a series of environmental and energy problems. In response to these problems, Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Dual-credit Regulation has been put forward in China. However, it is found that although the purpose of the Dual-credit Regulation is controlling the fuel consumption and promoting the development of the energy vehicle market, the fuel consumption restriction for fossil-fueled passenger cars is relaxed compared to CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) regulation alone. Moreover, this effect of relaxation is more obvious when the market share of new energy vehicles increases. To quantitatively estimate the relaxation effect of the fuel consumption restriction, a method of quantifying the relaxation effect is designed, and three different scenarios of new energy vehicle market development have been presumed in this paper. It is found that there are three main factors related to new energy vehicles that cause the relaxation of fuel consumption restriction, and the effect might become obvious and severe after 2025 if the market share of new energy vehicles develops very rapidly. These results may affect the development of the automotive industry and needed to be concerned.

Impacts of the New Worldwide Light-Duty Test Procedure on Technology Effectiveness and China's Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulations.

As a main measure to promote the development of China's energy-saving and new energy vehicles, the Phase V fuel consumption regulation is dramatically different from the past four phases, especially in the test procedure, moving from the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) to the worldwide harmonized light duty test cycle (WLTC) and corresponding test procedure (WLTP). The switch of test procedure will not only affect the effectiveness of technologies but also change the fuel consumption target of the industry. However, few studies have systematically investigated the impacts of the new WLTP on the Chinese market. This study establishes a "technology-vehicle-fleet" bottom-up framework to estimate the impacts of test procedure switching on technology effectiveness and regulation stringency. The results show that due to the WLTP being closer to the real driving condition and more stringent, almost all baseline vehicles in the WLTP have higher fuel consumption than that in the NEDC, and diesel vehicles are slightly more impacted than gasoline vehicles. In addition, the impacts are increased with the strengthening of electrification, where the fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) in the WLTP are about 6% higher than that in the NEDC. Engine technologies that gain higher effects in low load conditions, such as turbocharging and downsizing, fuel stratified injection (FSI), lean-burn, and variable valve timing (VVT), are faced with deterioration in the WLTP. Among these, the effect of turbocharging and downsizing shows a maximum decline of 8.5%. The variable compression ratio (VCR) and stoichiometric gasoline direct injection (SGDI) are among the few technologies that benefited from procedure switching, with an average improvement of 1.6% and 0.2% respectively. Except for multi-speed transmissions, which have improvement effects in the WLTP, all automatic transmissions are faced with decreases. From the perspective of the whole fleet and national regulation target, the average fuel consumption in the WLTP will increase by about 7.5% in 2025 compared to 4 L/100 km in the NEDC. According to the current planning of the Chinese government, the fuel consumption target of Phase V is set at 4.6 L/100 km in 2025, which is equivalent to loosening the stringency by 0.3 L/100 km. In Phase VI, the target of 3.2 L/100 km is maintained, which is 30.4% stricter than that of Phase V, and the annual compound tightening rate reaches 7.5%. This means that automakers need to launch their product planning as soon as possible and expand the technology bandwidth to comply with the Phase VI fuel consumption regulation, and the government should evaluate the technical feasibility before determining the evaluation methods and targets of the next phase.

Impact of adaptive cruise control (ACC) system on fatality and injury reduction in China.

OBJECTIVES: The road traffic safety situation around the world is not optimistic. The development of intelligent vehicles has become an ideal way to reduce road traffic crashes. The adaptive cruise control (ACC) system is an effective intelligent vehicle active safety system for avoiding certain types of collisions. This study aimed to assess the safety benefits of ACC in China, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact. METHODS: This study applies a national-level safety impact evaluation model to assess the safety benefits of ACC in China, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact. Road traffic fatality and severe injury trends in China, proportion of different collision types in China, effectiveness of collision avoidance, and market penetration rate of ACC are considered in the potential maximum impact scenario. Furthermore, the ACC activation rate and the technology's technical limitations, including its effectiveness in different weather, light, speed, and road conditions, are discussed in the realistic scenario. RESULTS: With a 100% market penetration rate, fatalities could be reduced by 5.48%, and injuries could be reduced by 4.91%. With a large increase in market penetration rate of ACC in the coming future, the reductions in fatalities and severe injuries are 324-957 and 1,035-2,737 in 2025 and 531-1,579 and 1,604-4,242 in 2030. Considering ACC's activation rate and its 4 main limitations, the adjusted realistic result is approximately one-third of the potential maximum result. CONCLUSIONS: The result clearly shows that the ACC system can improve road traffic safety in China. Technical limitations have a great impact on ACC's safety benefits. Of all of the limiting factors, the turn-on rate provides the most room for improvement, and improving the suitability of the ACC system on curved and sloped roads provides the smallest effect.

Cost analysis of road traffic crashes in China.

Fatalities and injuries resulting from road traffic crashes is always a serious problem. The overall economic losses caused by road traffic crashes are beyond imagination. Including the economic cost of property damage, productivity loss, medical cost, travel delay time cost, legal cost and insurance cost, the total economic cost of traffic crashes in China in 2017 is calculated as 490.1 billion yuan (72.6 billion USD 2017), which is equivalent to 0.60% of the GDP. The cost of productivity loss accounts for the highest proportion of total economic cost, which is 72%. The second is the travel delay cost, accounting for 12% insurance cost, property damage cost and medical cost are followed. The more serious the injury, the higher the unit economic cost. The unit cost of a crash that caused only property damage is 11,274 yuan. The unit cost of a minor injured crash is 20,223 yuan. The highest unit economic cost is the unit cost of a fatal crash, which is 3,181,394 yuan. This study provides important insights into the cost-benefit analysis of China's road safety policies.

Estimate of safety impact of lane keeping assistant system on fatalities and injuries reduction for China: Scenarios through 2030.

Objective: The objective of this research is to assess the number of casualties in China's road traffic accidents that can be reduced by lane keeping assistant (LKA) through 2030, based on the historical data on the number of fatalities and injuries in China and the proportion of LKA planed in China policy.Methods: The analysis was divided into 4 main parts: (1) Predict injuries and fatalities caused by traffic accident in China without LKA through 2030; (2) Apply the methodology to estimate the percentage reduction in injuries and fatalities assuming 100% penetration rate of LKA; (3) Predict the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles with LKA system through 2030 under Chinese government policy planning; (4) Calculate the specific number for the reduction in injuries and fatalities with LKA through 2030.Results: According to the historical accident data, the fatalities caused by traffic accidents without LKA are predicted to be 55,686 in 2020, 51,420 in 2025, and 47,484 in 2030, while the injuries are 188,285, 164,135, and 143,163. The percentage reduction with 100% penetration rate was calculated to be 14.8% for fatalities and 10.1% for injuries. Based on the China policy, the market penetration rate of intelligent vehicle with LKA was predicted to be 44.2% in 2025 and 77.7% in 2030. With the great increase of market penetration rate, the maximum reduction in injuries and fatalities from 2018 to 2030 was calculated. Compared to the previsions without LKA, 3370 fatalities and 7359 injuries will be reduced in 2025, while the specific number is 5465 fatalities and 11,270 injuries in 2030. Considering the three main limitations of LKA, the adjusted result would become approximately 1/9 of the original ideal result to be 375 fatalities and 818 injuries in 2025, while the specific number is 608 fatalities and 1253 injuries in 2030.Conclusions: The safety impact of LKA system on traffic crash fatalities and injuries reduction in China has been estimated. The results indicate that LKA system has considerable potential benefit in China. Interaction design with the driver, setting of the minimum travel speed and adaptability of the harsh conditions of the camera are the breakthrough points for maximizing safety benefits. The safety system of the intelligent vehicle has different benefits in different countries.

Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) System Impact on Fatality and Injury Reduction in China.

The automatic emergency braking (AEB) system is an effective intelligent vehicle active safety system for avoiding certain types of collisions. This study develops a national-level safety impact evaluation model for this intelligent vehicle function, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact. The evaluation model was firstly applied in China to provide insights into Chinese policymaking. Road traffic fatality and severe injury trends, the proportion of different collision types, the effectiveness of collision avoidance, and the AEB market penetration rates are considered in the potential maximum impact scenario. Furthermore, the AEB activation rate and the technology's technical limitations, including its effectiveness in different weather, light, and speed conditions, are discussed in the realistic scenario. With a 100% market penetration rate, fatalities could be reduced by 13.2%, and injuries could be reduced by 9.1%. Based on China's policy, the market penetration rate of intelligent vehicles with AEB is predicted to be 34.0% in 2025 and 60.3% in 2030. With this large market penetration rate increase of AEB, the reductions in fatalities and severe injuries are 903-2309 and 2025-5055 in 2025; and 1483-3789 and 3895-7835 in 2030, respectively. Considering AEB's activation rate and its three main limitations, the adjusted realistic result is approximately 2/5 of the potential maximum result.

Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment.

The majority of transport electrification studies, examining the demand and sustainability of critical metals, have focused on light-duty vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles have often been excluded from the research scope due to their smaller vehicle stock and slower pace of electrification. This study fills this research gap by evaluating the lithium resource impacts from electrification of the heavy-duty segment at the global level. Our results show that a mass electrification of the heavy-duty segment on top of the light-duty segment would substantially increase the lithium demand and impose further strain on the global lithium supply. The significant impact is attributed to the large single-vehicle battery capacity required by heavy-duty vehicles and the expected battery replacement needed within the lifetime of heavy-duty vehicles. We suggest that the ambition of mass electrification in the heavy-duty segment should be treated with cautions for both policy makers and entrepreneurs.

MicroRNA­758 inhibits tumorous behavior in tongue squamous cell carcinoma by directly targeting metadherin.

Numerous microRNAs (miRNAs) are dysregulated in tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC), and their dysregulation has been demonstrated to have a strong correlation with TSCC progression via regulation of their targets. Therefore, miRNAs have potential use in the diagnosis and treatment of patients with TSCC. In the present study, miRNA­758 (miR­758) expression in TSCC tissues and cell lines was detected through reverse transcription­quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and the effects of miR­758 on TSCC cell proliferation and invasion were investigated by using Cell Counting kit­8 and Transwell invasion assays. A luciferase reporter assay was performed to determine the target interaction between miR­758 and metadherin (MTDH) in TSCC cells. The results revealed that miR­758 was downregulated in TSCC tissues and cell lines. miR­758 overexpression restricted the proliferation and invasion of TSCC cells. Additionally, MTDH was verified as a direct target gene of miR­758 in TSCC cells. Furthermore, MTDH was observed to be upregulated in TSCC tissues, and the upregulation of MTDH was inversely correlated with miR­758 expression. Moreover, restored MTDH expression significantly counteracted the suppressive effects of miR­758 overexpression on TSCC cells. These results suggested that miR­758 may prevent TSCC progression and development by directly targeting MTDH, thereby providing evidence that miR­758 is a novel therapeutic target for the treatment of patients with TSCC.

The Dynamic Equilibrium Mechanism of Regional Lithium Flow for Transportation Electrification.

To assess changes in the lithium supply chain resulting from the development of the electric vehicle industry and corresponding impacts, this study established a regional dynamic flow model of the entire anthropogenic life cycle of lithium in China from 2000 to 2050. Based on historical data, this model provides output data including production, consumption and international trade of lithium embodied in five types of commodities. Results indicate that the amount of lithium flow in 2050 will be 13-20 times greater than that in 2015. The lithium applied in electric vehicles will account for the largest proportion of in-use stocks of lithium starting in 2022. Lithium recovery will not play a big role in reducing supply pressure until 2030. Comparing all types of lithium-containing commodities, import dependence on minerals will remain the greatest within the temporal boundary. This factor reflects a nonnegligible risk to the supply demand balance considering the high concentration of mineral import structure in China currently. Several policy recommendations are offered for the optimization of China's flow structure. On the demand side, limited capacity expansion and cutting overcapacity of downstream commodities should be under consideration to distribute lithium import more reasonably. On the supply side, the potential oversupply issues caused by low-grade scrap require further development of recycling technology.

Global Lithium Flow 1994-2015: Implications for Improving Resource Efficiency and Security.

Lithium has been widely recognized as an essential metal for next-generation clean technologies. With the aim of identifying opportunities for improving lithium resource efficiency and security, this study establishes a long-term trade-linked material flow analysis framework to analyze lithium flow throughout the technological life cycle and across national boundaries during the 1994-2015 period. The results indicate that with broader purposes identified, global lithium production and consumption experienced rapid growth over the past decades. A widely distributed, actively functioning lithium trade network has been established, with the United States, China, the European Union, Chile, and Australia playing essential roles. Global lithium in-use stock, which is mainly embodied in ceramics and glass, reached 29 kilotons in 2015. The lithium stock contained in battery-related applications, together with the huge potential production of stock in future decades, represents a major opportunity for secondary lithium recovery. In the context of intensive international trade, international cooperation on lithium waste management is extremely important. It is also suggested that there is a high risk of lithium shortage for countries with strong dependence on lithium import. The establishment of domestic lithium reserves may be an option for these countries.