Trend Analysis of Betel Nut-associated Oral Cancer and Health Burden in China.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health based on historical oral cancer patient data in Hunan province, China. METHODS: Oral cancer patient data in five hospitals in Changsha (the capital city of Hunan province) were collected for the past 12 years. Three methods were used to analyse the data; Microsoft Excel Forecast Sheet, Excel Trendline, and the Logistic growth model. A combination of these three methods was used to forecast the future trend of betel nut-associated oral cancer and the resulting burden on health. RESULTS: Betel nut-associated oral cancer cases have been increasing rapidly in the past 12 years in Changsha. As of 2016, betel nuts had caused 8,222 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and close to 25,000 cases in Hunan, resulting in about ¥5 billion in accumulated financial loss. The combined trend analysis predicts that by 2030, betel nuts will cause more than 100,000 cases of oral cancer in Changsha and more than 300,000 cases in Hunan, and more than ¥64 billion in accumulated financial loss in medical expenses. CONCLUSION: The trend analysis of oral cancer patient data predicts that the growing betel nut industry in Hunan province will cause a humanitarian catastrophe with massive loss of human life and national resources. To prevent this catastrophe, China should ban betel nuts and provide early oral cancer screening for betel nut consumers as soon as possible.

[Prognostic factors of early tongue squamous cell carcinoma and neck treatment].

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the prognostic factors and the neck treatment strategy of early tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). METHODS: Total of 152 cases of early tongue SCC underwent surgery between January 1994 December 2003 were reviewed. The patients, according to their neck managements, were divided into two groups, or wait-whach group (n = 32) and neck dissection group (n = 120), and the neck dissection group was subdivided into supraomohyoid neck dissection (SND) group and comprehensive neck dissection(CND) group (including radical neck dissection and modified radical neck dissection). RESULTS: All patients were followed up over 5 years or until death and the 5-year follow-up rate was 94.7%. The regional recurrence rates of wait-whach group and neck dissection group were 34.4% and 14.2% respectively (χ(2) = 6.865, P < 0.01) and 5-year overall survival rates of the two groups were 68% and 79% respectively (χ(2) = 1.699, P > 0.05). There were no significant difference in the regional recurrence rate or 5-year survival rate between SND group and CND group (P > 0.05). The patients with pathologically node positive had a low 5-year survival rate compared to those with node negative. The patients with regional recurrence had a significant low 5-year survival rate compared to patients without regional recurrence (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Occult lymph node metastasis and regional recurrence were important prognostic factors for early tongue cancer. Supraomohyoid neck dissection can not improve the 5-year survival rate, but significantly reduce the rate of neck recurrence. The results suggest that the selective neck dissection for ipsilateral level I-III should be applied to the patients with early tongue carcinoma which does not cross the midline.