Prevalence of Mood Disorders and Associated Factors at the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Potocol for a Community Survey in La Manouba Governorate, Tunisia.

Aims: The present survey aims to assess the overall mood disorder prevalence and identify associated socio-demographic and clinical factors in a Tunisian community sample, with special attention to the COVID-19 pandemic. Background: Mood disorders are one of the leading causes of all non-fatal burdens of disease, with depression being at the top of the list. The COVID-19 pandemic may have increased the prevalence of mood disorders, especially in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) and in vulnerable populations. Objective: 1/ Assess point and lifetime prevalence of depressive and bipolar disorders as well as subthreshold bipolarity in a representative population sample of La Manouba governorate and assess treatment patterns for these disorders; 2/Study socio-demographic and clinical correlates of mood disorders 3/ Assess the association between mood disorders and quality of life 4/ Study the impact of the COVID-pandemic on the prevalence of mood disorders 5/ Assess coping mechanisms to the COVID-pandemic and whether these mechanisms moderate the appearance of mood disorders or symptoms since the beginning of the pandemic. Methods: This is a household cross-sectional observational survey to be conducted in La Manouba Governorate in a sample of 4540 randomly selected individuals aged ≥ 15 years. Data collection will be carried out by trained interviewers with clinical experience, through face-to-face interviews and the use of the computer assisted personal interviewing approach (CAPI). The following assessment tools are administered. Results: Structured clinical Interview for DSM IV-TR (Mood disorder section and Screening questions on Anxiety), Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ), Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ), 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12), the Brief-COPE, and a questionnaire about a headache. In addition, socio-demographic and clinical data will be collected. Conclusion: This will be one of the very few household surveys in a general population sample to assess mental health problems and COVID-19-related variables since the beginning of the pandemic. Through this research, we aim to obtain an epidemiological profile of mood disorders in Tunisia and an estimation of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their prevalence. Results should contribute to improving mental health care in Tunisia.

Explaining income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in Tunisian adults during the last decade: comparison of sensitivity analysis of logistic regression and Wagstaff decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is important to quantify inequality, explain the contribution of underlying social determinants and to provide evidence to guide health policy. The aim of the study is to explain the income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in the last decade among Tunisian adults aged between 35 and 70 years old. METHODS: We performed the analysis by applying two approaches and compared the results provided by the two methods. The methods were global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using logistic regression models and the Wagstaff decomposition analysis. RESULTS: Results provided by the two methods found a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in those with high socio-economic status in 2005. Similar results were observed in 2016. In 2016, the GSA showed that education level occupied the first place on the explanatory list of factors explaining 36.1% of the adult social inequality in high cardiovascular risk, followed by the area of residence (26.2%) and income (15.1%). Based on the Wagstaff decomposition analysis, the area of residence occupied the first place and explained 40.3% followed by income and education level explaining 19.2 and 14.0% respectively. Thus, both methods found similar factors explaining inequalities (income, educational level and regional conditions) but with different rankings of importance. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed substantial income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes in Tunisia and provided explanations for this. Results based on two different methods similarly showed that structural disparities on income, educational level and regional conditions should be addressed in order to reduce inequalities.

Premature mortality attributable to smoking among Tunisian men in 2009.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking is a significant public health threat in the world, a risk factor for many diseases, and has been increasing in prevalence in many developing countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the burden of premature deaths attributable to smoking among Tunisian men aged 35-69 years in 2009. METHODS: The number of deaths attributable to smoking was estimated using the population attributable risk fraction method. Smoking prevalence was obtained from a nationally representative survey. Causes of death were obtained from the registry of the National Public Health Institute. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Prevention Study (CPS-II). RESULTS: Total estimated premature deaths attributable to smoking among men in Tunisia were 2601 (95% CI: 2268-2877), accounting for 25% (95% CI: 23.3-26.6) of total male adult mortality. Cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were the major causes of premature deaths attributable to smoking with 1272 (95% CI: 1188-1329), 966 (95% CI: 779-1133) and 364 (300-415) deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is highly relevant and is related to substantial premature mortality in Tunisia, around double that estimated for the region as a whole. This also has not decreased over the past 20 years. Urgent actions are needed to reduce this pandemic.

Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the potential to analyze and compare the effectiveness of very different interventions to prevent future cardiovascular disease. We developed a comprehensive Markov model to assess the impact of three interventions to reduce ischemic heart diseases (IHD) and stroke deaths: (i) improved medical treatments in acute phase, (ii) secondary prevention by increasing the uptake of statins, (iii) primary prevention using health promotion to reduce dietary salt consumption. METHODS: We developed and validated a Markov model for the Tunisian population aged 35-94 years old over a 20-year time horizon. We compared the impact of specific treatments for stroke, lifestyle, and primary prevention on both IHD and stroke deaths. We then undertook extensive sensitivity analyses using both a probabilistic multivariate approach and simple linear regression (metamodeling). RESULTS: The model forecast a dramatic mortality rise, with 111,134 IHD and stroke deaths (95% CI 106567 to 115048) predicted in 2025 in Tunisia. The salt reduction offered the potentially most powerful preventive intervention that might reduce IHD and stroke deaths by 27% (-30240 [-30580 to -29900]) compared with 1% for medical strategies and 3% for secondary prevention. The metamodeling highlighted that the initial development of a minor stroke substantially increased the subsequent probability of a fatal stroke or IHD death. CONCLUSIONS: The primary prevention of cardiovascular disease via a reduction in dietary salt consumption appeared much more effective than secondary or tertiary prevention approaches. Our simple but comprehensive model offers a potentially attractive methodological approach that might now be extended and replicated in other contexts and populations.