Modelling the interplay of future changes and wastewater management measures on the microbiological river water quality considering safe drinking water production.

Rivers are important for drinking water supply worldwide. However, they are often impacted by pathogen discharges via wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and combined sewer overflows (CSO). To date, accurate predictions of the effects of future changes and pollution control measures on the microbiological water quality of rivers considering safe drinking water production are hindered due to the uncertainty of the pathogen source and transport variables. The aim of this study was to test an integrative approach for an improved understanding of these effects, i.e. climate change and population growth as well as enhanced treatment at WWTPs and/or prevention of CSOs. We applied a significantly extended version of QMRAcatch (v1.0 Python), a probabilistic-deterministic model that combines fate and transport modelling with quantitative microbial infection risk assessment. The impact of climatic changes until the period 2035-2049 was investigated by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model, based on regional climate model outputs. QMRAcatch was calibrated and validated using site- and source-specific data (human-associated genetic microbial source tracking marker and enterovirus). The study showed that the degree to which future changes affect drinking water safety strongly depends on the type and magnitude of faecal pollution sources and are thus highly site- and scenario-specific. For example, if the load of pathogens from WWTPs is reduced through enhanced treatment, climate-change driven increases in CSOs had a considerable impact. Preventing CSOs and installing enhanced treatment at the WWTPs together had the most significant positive effect. The simultaneous consideration of source apportionment and concentrations of reference pathogens, focusing on human-specific viruses (enterovirus, norovirus) and cross-comparison with bacterial and protozoan pathogens (Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium), was found crucial to quantify these effects. While demonstrated here for a large, wastewater-impacted river, the approach is applicable at other catchments and pollution sources. It allows assessing future changes and selecting suitable pollution control measures for long-term water safety planning.

QMRAcatch: Human-Associated Fecal Pollution and Infection Risk Modeling for a River/Floodplain Environment.

Protection of drinking water resources requires addressing all relevant fecal pollution sources in the considered catchment. A freely available simulation tool, QMRAcatch, was recently developed to simulate concentrations of fecal indicators, a genetic microbial source tracking (MST) marker, and intestinal pathogens in water resources and to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). At the same time, QMRAcatch was successfully applied to a region of the Danube River in Austria, focusing on municipal wastewater emissions. Herein, we describe extension of its application to a Danube River floodplain, keeping the focus on fecal sources of human origin. QMRAcatch was calibrated to match measured human-associated MST marker concentrations for a dry year and a wet year. Appropriate performance characteristics of the human-associated MST assay were proven by simulating correct and false-positive marker concentrations, as determined in human and animal feces. With the calibrated tool, simulated and measured enterovirus concentrations in the rivers were compared. Finally, the calibrated tool allowed demonstrating that 4.5 log enterovirus and 6.6 log norovirus reductions must be achieved to convert current surface water to safe drinking water that complies with a health-based target of 10 infections person yr. Simulations of the low- and high-pollution scenarios showed that the required viral reductions ranged from 0 to 8 log. This study has implications for water managers with interests in assessing robust catchment protection measures and water treatment criteria by considering the fate of fecal pollution from its sources to the point of abstraction.