Twenty-year impact of fire foci and its relationship with climate variables in Brazilian regions.

In recent years, Brazil has become a major global contributor to the occurrence of national fires and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the fire foci data of the past 20 years to determine their relationship with climatic variables in various Brazilian regions. The variables evaluated included fire foci, land surface temperature, rainfall, and standardized precipitation index, which were obtained via remote sensing from 2000 to 2019. The data were subjected to trend analyses (Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests) and a multivariate analysis of canonical variables for evaluation. The results showed that the Midwest and North regions had the highest occurrence of fire foci throughout the study period, and that the North region had the highest accumulated annual rainfall. Thus, these regions require specific public policies to prevent future fires. Overall, the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions exhibit significant increasing fire foci tendencies. Our results reveal that this trend is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, which alter climatic variables such as precipitation, land surface temperature, and the standardized precipitation index. Finally, the sugarcane growing area had a significant linear relationship with fire foci in the Southeast region, especially in the state of São Paulo, the major national sugarcane producer.

Persistent fire foci in all biomes undermine the Paris Agreement in Brazil.

Brazil is one of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Fire foci across the country contributes to these emissions and compromises emission reduction targets pledged by Brazil under the Paris Agreement. In this paper, we quantify fire foci, burned areas, and carbon emissions in all Brazilian biomes (i.e., Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, Atlantic Forest, Pantanal and Pampa). We analyzed these variables using cluster analysis and non-parametric statistics to predict carbon and CO2 emissions for the next decade. Our results showed no increase in the number of fire foci and carbon emissions for the evaluated time series, whereby the highest emissions occur and will persist in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. The Atlantic Forest, Pantanal, Caatinga and Pampa biomes had low emissions compared to the Amazon and Cerrado. Based on 2030 projections, the sum of emissions from fire foci in the six Brazilian biomes will exceed 5.7 Gt CO2, compromising the national GHG reduction targets. To reduce GHG emissions, Brazil will need to control deforestation induced by the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This can only be achieved through significant political effort involving the government, entrepreneurs and society as a collective.