Long-term prognosis of acute otitis media in infancy: determinants of recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion.

OBJECTIVES: Children under 2 years of age with acute otitis media are known to have a relatively poor prognosis. The objective of this study was to assess whether known determinants for recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion after an episode of acute otitis media during childhood also apply to children under 2 years. STUDY DESIGN: prospective study of 210 children under 2, with identification of potential prognostic determinants. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to evaluate which parameters independently contributed to the prediction of both outcome measures (recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion). A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models. POPULATION: children under 2 years of age with an episode of acute otitis media in family practice. OUTCOMES MEASURED: recurrent acute otitis media and persistent middle ear effusion. RESULTS: For the outcome recurrent acute otitis media data from 210 children were used and winter season, male sex, passive smoking and persistent symptoms for more than 10 days at presentation were independent prognostic determinants. For the outcome persistent middle ear effusion data from 190 children were used and winter season, bilateral disease at entry, a sibling history of recurrent acute otitis media, and a previous episode of acute otitis media independently predicted the outcome. No sufficiently discriminatory prognostic model could be constructed for either outcome measure. CONCLUSION: Prediction of recurrent acute otitis media or persistent middle ear effusion in individual young children remains poor.

Penicillin for acute sore throat in children: randomised, double blind trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of penicillin for three days and treatment for seven days compared with placebo in resolving symptoms in children with sore throat. DESIGN: Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial. SETTING: 43 family practices in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 156 children aged 4-15 who had a sore throat for less than seven days and at least two of the four Centor criteria (history of fever, absence of cough, swollen tender anterior cervical lymph nodes, and tonsillar exudate). Interventions Patients were randomly assigned to penicillin for seven days, penicillin for three days followed by placebo for four days, or placebo for seven days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Duration of symptoms, mean consumption of analgesics, number of days of absence from school, occurrence of streptococcal sequelae, eradication of the initial pathogen, and recurrences of sore throat after six months. RESULTS: Penicillin treatment was not more beneficial than placebo in resolving symptoms of sore throat, neither in the total group nor in the 96 children with group A streptococci. In the groups randomised to seven days of penicillin, three days of penicillin, or placebo, one, two, and eight children, respectively, experienced a streptococcal sequela. CONCLUSION: Penicillin treatment had no beneficial effect in children with sore throat on the average duration of symptoms. Penicillin may, however, reduce streptococcal sequelae.

One-year prognosis of primary care dyspepsia: predictive value of symptom pattern, Helicobacter pylori and GP management.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dyspepsia is a highly prevalent, heterogeneous condition with a poorly defined clinical course in family practice. We observed its clinical outcome and identified prognostic factors. PATIENTS: We studied 583 patients presenting to their general practitioner (GP) with a new episode of dyspeptic complaints. METHODS: A validated dyspepsia severity score was used to observe deterioration of dyspepsia. Furthermore, the general health status and the patient's perception of no improvement were registered. As prognostic determinants, demographic characteristics, concomitant conditions, and management were studied. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 518 (89%) patients completed the 1-year follow-up. Of these, 111 patients (22%, 95% CI 18% to 25%) had a negative change in their dyspepsia score after 1 year; 46 patients (9%, 95% CI 6% to 11%) noted impairment of general health; and 122 patients (24%, 95% CI 20% to 28%) regarded complaints as not improved. Frequent dyspepsia (>1 episode/year) and a history of peptic ulcer predicted deterioration of dyspepsia, while smoking and little psychological distress predicted impairment of general health. Eradication of Helicobacter pylori reduced the chance of patient's negative judgement for especially those with frequent dyspepsia. CONCLUSION: One-quarter of the dyspepsia patients had an unfavourable 1-year prognosis, which was predictable because of frequent complaints and previously diagnosed ulcers. Psychological factors need to be identified, since they are related to general health improvement. The observed benefit of H. pylori eradication on perceived improvement of complaints may well be placebo effect.