Costs and effects of prenatal screening methods for Down syndrome and neural tube defects.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate prenatal screening methods for Down syndrome and neural tube defects (NTD) with regard to costs per detected case and the number of screening-related miscarriages. METHODS: The screening methods compared were risk assessment tests, i.e. serum tests and nuchal translucency measurement (NT), and invasive testing through chorionic villus sampling (CVS) or amniocentesis. Costs, the number of cases detected and screening-related miscarriages were calculated using a decision tree model. RESULTS: The costs per detected case of Down syndrome ranged from EUR 98,000 for the first-trimester (serum) double test to EUR 191,000 for invasive testing. If NTD detection was included, the (serum) triple test had the lowest costs, EUR 73,000, per detected case of Down syndrome or NTD. The number of screening-related miscarriages due to invasive diagnostic tests varied from 13 per 100,000 women for the (serum) first- and second-trimester combined test to 914 per 100,000 women for invasive testing. CONCLUSIONS: Considering screening for both Down syndrome and NTD favors the triple test in terms of costs per detected case. Compared to invasive testing, risk assessment tests in general substantially lower screening-related miscarriages, which raises the question of whether invasive testing should still be offered in a screening program for Down syndrome.

Cost effectiveness of oseltamivir treatment for patients with influenza-like illness who are at increased risk for serious complications of influenza: illustration for the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Oseltamivir is effective in the treatment of influenza. Utilisation in The Netherlands is limited, but increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of oseltamivir treatment (vs symptom relief only) for patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) who are at increased risk for serious complications of influenza. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was used, building on a previously developed model (decision tree) that was applied for evaluating influenza vaccination and pandemic preparedness plans. Three patient subgroups were assessed (elderly patients [aged > or = 65 years] without chronic disease, elderly patients with chronic disease, and chronically ill, non-elderly patients). Inputs for the model were taken from various sources including a meta-analysis. A societal perspective was adopted and costs were expressed in euro per life-year gained (year 2003 values). Life-years lost were discounted at 4% in accordance with Dutch guidelines. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were employed to assess the robustness of the results. RESULTS: For chronically ill patients with ILI, visits to the GP for oseltamivir treatment were cost saving. For non-chronically ill elderly patients, incremental cost-effectiveness was estimated at 1759 euros per life-year gained. Cost savings and favourable cost effectiveness were robust in a deterministic and stochastic sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: Our model-based analysis suggests that at-risk people presenting with ILI to a GP could be offered oseltamivir at favourable cost effectiveness or even cost savings in the Dutch setting compared with symptom relief with analgesics only.

Future costs of stroke in the Netherlands: the impact of stroke services.

OBJECTIVES: In the next decades, the number of stroke patients is expected to increase. Furthermore, organizational changes, such as stroke services, are expected to be implemented on a large scale. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future healthcare costs by taking into account the expected increase of stroke patients and a nationwide implementation of stroke services. METHODS: By means of a dynamic multistate life table, the total number of stroke patients can be projected. The model calculates the annual number of patients by age and gender. The total healthcare costs are calculated by multiplying the average healthcare costs specified by age, gender, and healthcare sector with the total number of stroke patients specified by age and gender. RESULTS: In the year 2000, the healthcare costs for stroke amounted to euro 1.62 billion. This amount is approximately 4.4 percent of the total national healthcare budget. Projections of the total costs of stroke based on current practice result in an increase of 28 percent (euro 2.08 billion) in the year 2020. A nationwide implementation of stroke services in 2020 would result in a substantial reduction of the costs of stroke (euro 1.81 billion: 13 percent cost reduction) compared with the regular care scenario. CONCLUSIONS: A nationwide implementation of stroke services is a strong policy tool for cost containment of health care in an aging population like that in the Netherlands. Policy makers should optimize the organization of stroke care.

Scenarios on costs and savings of influenza treatment and prevention for Dutch healthy working adults.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic implications of strategies for influenza control among healthy working adults in The Netherlands. METHODS: The economic evaluation was based on a pharmaco-economic model from the societal perspective. This model involves the direct and indirect costs of vaccination or treatment and the direct and indirect savings (averted costs) due to the control strategy. Control strategies comprised treatment with oseltamivir and prevention with the influenza vaccine. Clinical and economic parameter estimates were derived from published literature, databases and expert opinions. Several scenarios for age-groups and employment contracts (full-time versus not) were elaborated in combination with Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Consistently, net cost savings are estimated over the range of age groups and scenarios considered. Net savings are smallest for half-time workers. Incremental analysis indicates that on average prevention renders higher cost savings than treatment. CONCLUSION: We found a consistent picture of net cost savings for prevention through vaccination and treatment with oseltamivir of influenza in healthy working adults in The Netherlands.

Modeling the future burden of stroke in The Netherlands: impact of aging, smoking, and hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the near future, the number of stroke patients and their related healthcare costs are expected to rise. The purpose of this study was to estimate this expected increase in stroke patients in the Netherlands. We sought to determine what the future developments in the number of stroke patients due to demographic changes and trends in the prevalence of smoking and hypertension in terms of the prevalence, incidence, and potential years of life lost might be. METHODS: A dynamic, multistate life table was used, which combined demographic projections and existing stroke morbidity and mortality data. It projected future changes in the number of stroke patients in several scenarios for the Dutch population for the period 2000 to 2020. The model calculated the annual number of new patients by age and sex by using incidence rates, defined by age, sex, and major risk factors. The change in the annual number of stroke patients is the result of incident cases minus mortality numbers. RESULTS: Demographic changes in the population suggest an increase of 27% in number of stroke patients per 1000 in 2020 compared with 2000. Extrapolating past trends in the prevalence of smoking behavior, hypertension, and stroke incidence resulted in an increase of 4%. CONCLUSIONS: The number of stroke patients in the Netherlands will rise continuously until the year 2020. Our study demonstrates that a large part of this increase in the number of patients is an inevitable consequence of the aging of the population.

The expected number of hospitalisations and beds needed due to pandemic influenza on a regional level in the Netherlands.

In order to minimise the effects of a potential influenza pandemic on the population, regional authorities in the Netherlands are in the process of development of a plan to be prepared to cope with mass illness and to ensure health care services. The objective of this study is to calculate the expected numbers of hospitalisations and the maximum number of beds needed per day on a regional level. As many uncertainties are involved in this type of studies, we have performed a scenario analysis of the expected number of hospitalisations and beds needed during an influenza pandemic. The analysis gives insight into the impact of the pandemic in terms of how many will be hospitalised, how many beds are needed during the pandemic and in the effect of a possible intervention by therapeutic use of antivirals in terms of hospitalisations and beds needed. It can be concluded that our scenario analysis will be helpful in designing and planning on a regional level.

International comparison of stroke cost studies.

PURPOSE: With the rapid international spread of interventions, there is a need to understand the economic implications of these changes and to interpret these economic implications on the international level. The purpose of this study is to systematically compare total health care expenditures on stroke, the costs of stroke per capita, and the distribution of stroke costs within different countries, with special attention to the allocation of resources among different health care facilities. METHODS: Studies for this literature review were selected by conducting a literature search from January 1966 to July 2003. Key methodological, country-related, and monetary issues of the selected stroke cost studies were evaluated using a checklist. RESULTS: After selection, 25 stroke cost studies were reviewed. Although the selected cost of illness studies used different methodologies, the estimated expenditures for stroke are approximately similar. The proportion of national health care in the 8 countries studied is unequivocal for the more recent studies, ie, approximately 3% of total health care expenditures. A shift is observed from the inpatient treatment costs (in the first year) toward outpatient treatment and long-term care costs (in the latter years). Furthermore, it is remarkable that in the studies, little attention is paid to costs borne by the patient and family or to the costs of comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of studying the economic consequences of stroke and of interpreting the results on the international level. The results of stroke cost studies provide insight into the distribution of the costs of stroke and the impact of stroke on the national expenditure on health care.

Future burden and costs of smoking-related disease in the Netherlands: a dynamic modeling approach.

OBJECTIVES: In this article, we explore the future health gain of different policy measures to reduce smoking prevalence: health education campaigns specifically aimed at keeping (young) people from starting to smoke, campaigns aimed at persuading smokers to quit, and tax measures. METHODS: We drew up different policy scenarios based on evaluations of several health promotion campaigns. Implementing these into the dynamic multistate models, we simulated smoking prevalence, loss of life-years, and costs for several decades into the next century. RESULTS: In the short run, campaigns aimed at potential "quitters" appear to be most effective in terms of health gain. However, their effect fades away after several decades, while campaigns aimed at young "starters" or tax measures in the end yield a larger and more lasting decrease in smoking attributable disease burden. CONCLUSION: Dynamic modeling is very useful tool in calculating costs and effects of preventive public health measures.

Pandemic influenza and healthcare demand in the Netherlands: scenario analysis.

In accordance with World Health Organization guidelines, the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports designed a national plan to minimize effects of pandemic influenza. Within the scope of the Dutch pandemic preparedness plan, we were asked to estimate the magnitude of the problem in terms of the number of hospitalizations and deaths during an influenza pandemic. Using scenario analysis, we also examined the potential effects of intervention options. We describe and compare the scenarios developed to understand the potential impact of a pandemic (i.e., illness, hospitalizations, deaths), various interventions, and critical model parameters. Scenario analysis is a helpful tool for making policy decisions about the design and planning of outbreak control management on a national, regional, or local level.

Pharmacoeconomics of influenza vaccination for healthy working adults: reviewing the available evidence.

A favourable pharmacoeconomic profile has been well established for influenza vaccination in the elderly. For employers relevant benefits seem to exist for vaccinating healthy working adults to avert absenteeism and related production losses. From a pharmacoeconomic point of view it is relevant to consider whether societal benefits of vaccination for healthy working adults is worthwhile given the costs of vaccination for the community. We searched Medline and Embase using the key words influenza (vaccination) in combination with cost, cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, efficiency, economic evaluation, health-policy and pharmacoeconomics. From this primary search, we selected 11 studies concerned with the group of healthy working adults. We reviewed these studies according to several criteria: benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratio;vaccine effectiveness, influenza incidence, number of days of work absence due to illness; and relative cost of the vaccine. Three studies on vaccinating healthy working adults found costs exceeding the benefits (B/C-ratio <1). The remaining eight pharmacoeconomic studies found a B/C-ratio of almost two or more. Cost savings are strongly related to the inclusion of indirect benefits related to averted production losses. After exclusion of indirect costs and benefits of production gains/losses, only one of the eight studies remains cost saving. Considering the available pharmacoeconomic evidence, vaccination of healthy working adults in Western countries may be an intervention with favourable cost-effectiveness and cost-saving potentials if indirect benefits of averted production losses are included. Excluding indirect benefits and costs of production losses/gains, cost-saving potentials are limited. Recent international guidelines for pharmacoeconomic research advise the inclusion of production gains and losses in the preferred societal perspective. Hence, on the basis of the available evidence, influenza vaccination of healthy working adults may be recommended from pharmacoeconomic point of view. Pharmacoeconomics do, however, present only one argument for consideration aside from ethical issues, budgetary limits and psychosocial aspects.