Water-related limits to growth for agriculture in Iran.

Globally, agriculture is the primary water consumption sector. This study used water footprint (WF) as a bottom-up tool and satellite imagery as a top-down tool to estimate the internal water use (WU) in the agricultural sector in an innovative way to show the effects of water-intensive use in agriculture in an arid country. The WF of Iran has been quantified for 19 main crops and for related agricultural products exported from Iran to partner countries. Using a bottom-up approach, Iran's total yearly agriculture net water consumption is estimated to be 42.43 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year. Out of 42.43 BCM total net internal water use, only 1.61 BCM is virtual-water export related to these 19 products, and the remaining 40.82 BCM is for internal use. Our results using satellite imagery show that in case of using all possible lands for agriculture, it would require 77.4 BCM. However, not all these lands are within human reach, and the maximum available water is way lower than this amount. Using satellite imagery, the total evaporation from agricultural lands shows 55.27 BCM for 2020, which agrees with national reports during 2005-2014. This study shows that agricultural water consumption tends to use internal water resources at a maximum level for export and national use, significantly impacting renewable and non-renewable water resource availability, especially in groundwater.

A mathematical meta-model for assessing the self-sufficient water resources carrying capacity across different spatial scales in Iran.

Hydrological modeling, water accounting assessments, and land evaluations are well-known techniques to carry out water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) assessments at multiple spatial levels. Using the results of an existing process-based model for assessing WRCC from very fine to national spatial scales, we propose a mathematical meta-model, i.e., a set of easily applicable simplified equations to assess WRCC as a function of high-quality agricultural lands for optimistic to realistic scenarios. These equations are based on multi-scale spatial results. Scales include national scale (L0), watersheds (L1), sub-watersheds (L2), and water management hydrological units (L3). Applying the meta-model for different scales could support spatial planning and water management. This method can quantify the effects of individual and collective behavior on self-sufficient WRCC and the level of dependency on external food resources in each area. Carrying capacity can be seen as the inverse of the ecological footprint. Hence, using publicly available data on the ecological footprint in Iran, the results of the proposed method are validated and give an estimation of lower and upper bounds for all biocapacity of the lands. Moreover, the results confirm the law of diminishing returns in the economy for the carrying capacity assessment across spatial scales. The proposed meta-model could be considered a complex manifest of land, water, plants, and human interaction for food production, and it could be used as a powerful tool in spatial planning studies.

Improving suitability of urban canals and canalized rivers for transportation, thermal energy extraction and recreation in two European delta cities.

Canals and canalized rivers form a major part of surface water systems in European delta cities and societal ambitions to use these waters increase. This is the first assessment of how suitability of these waters can improve for three important uses: transportation, thermal energy extraction (TEE) and recreation. We assess suitability with Suitability Indices (SIs) and identify which alterations in the water system are needed to improve SI scores in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and Ghent, Belgium. The results show spatial variability in suitability scores. Current suitability for transportation is low (SI score = 1) to excellent (SI score = 4), for TEE fair (SI score = 2) to excellent (SI score = 4), and suitability for recreation is low (SI score = 1). Suitability could improve by enlarging specific waterway dimensions, increasing discharge and clarity, and by enhancing microbiological water quality. The same methodology can be applied to optimize designs for new water bodies and for more water uses.

Ecuadorian water funds' use of scale-sensitive strategies to stay on course in forest and landscape restoration governance.

Water funds are task-specific organisations that conserve and restore watersheds. The funds provide sustained finance and a collaborative space for actors at different levels to improve the water regulation functions of upstream ecosystems, safeguard water quality, and establish ecological connectivity with the aim of ensuring downstream water quantity and quality. However, while implementing conservation and restoration efforts at local level, water funds encounter scale challenges, consisting of mismatches between the ecological and the governance scale and misalignment between governance levels. This study's aim is to identify and unravel both the scale challenges with which two Ecuadorian water funds (FONAG and FORAGUA) were confronted and the scale-sensitive governance strategies that they planned and deployed to overcome them. We collected data through a document review, 48 semi-structured interviews, and participatory observation, and used content analysis methods to analyse the interview transcripts. Consequently, at both funds, we identified a blind spot towards rural livelihood realities, a temporal mismatch between short-term election cycles and long-term restoration timelines, and a spatial mismatch between the reach of restoration efforts and degradation processes. At FORAGUA, we also identified heterogeneity across levels regarding the purpose of restoration, with different spatial implications. We identified a total of 12 tailored strategies that the two water funds deployed or aim to deploy in reaction to these challenges in an attempt to re-create fit with ecological processes and alignment with other governance levels. Some of these strategies caused new scale challenges to emerge. By observing and acting on emerging scale challenges, water funds try to stay on course to achieve restoration objectives. We conclude that the water funds, which are governance arrangements designed to create spatial and temporal fit with ecological processes, have to continuously adapt their governance strategies to maintain cross-scale fit and cross-level alignment.

The edge of the petri dish for a nation: Water resources carrying capacity assessment for Iran.

Different methods have been proposed in population dynamics to estimate carrying capacity (K). This study estimates K for Iran, using three novel methods by integrating land and water limits into assessments based on Human Appropriated Net Primary Production (HANPP). The first method uses land suitability as the limiting resource. It gives theoretical estimates for K. The second method which is based on the first method, uses land suitability and water resources availability as limiting resources assuming highly efficient agriculture, also resulting in theoretical estimates for K. The third method is based on the second method assuming a lower, more realistic agricultural efficiency. The third therefore results in more realistic estimates. Four spatial hydrological scale levels were considered to estimate food production. Also, nine scenarios were defined: a reference one reflecting the current situation, five others for the first method, two for the second method, and finally, one scenario for the third method. Results show severe limitations on food production by the availability of suitable land, water availability, and crop productivity for agriculture. We estimated theoretical values for K using land and water limiting resources separately. Two realistic scenarios considering realistic agricultural productivity and water use at national and local levels were assessed, resulting in 35.5 and 20 million people, respectively. These are alarming values compared to the current population of Iran (84 million). Moreover, our conservative estimations are still higher than any assessment when considering social, economic, or political barriers. This research provides a systematic analysis of carrying capacity in Iran, showing the importance of food import on Iranians' lives, relevant to land, water, and food policies.

Hybrid power generation for increasing water and energy securities during drought: Exploring local and regional effects in a semi-arid basin.

Reservoirs of hydropower plants (HPP) can amend water, energy, and food security in semi-arid regions. However, during severe droughts, the priority of energy demand leads to critical conditions of water availability. To reduce water use for energy, one possible measure is the adoption of solar power, an abundant energy source in semi-arid regions. This study assessed the influence of adding floating photovoltaic power (PV) in the large-scale reservoir of Sobradinho HPP, located in the São Francisco River (SFR), in Brazil, from 2009 to 2018. The simulated scenarios varied the installed PV power capacity from 50 to 1000 MW. For each scenario, water allocation was modified based on the solar-hydro equivalence that restrained the historical outflow of Sobradinho to maintain water in the reservoir. Besides, a diverse operation rule for the reservoirs in cascade of SFR was adopted to avoid ecological impacts of low streamflow. The scenarios were assessed in water security, solar-hydro electricity output, capacity factor of the powerplant, water and energy losses by evaporation and spilled water. Results show that a PV system starting from 250 MW was necessary to improve water security during the severe drought, reserving 0.7-2.3 of the annual water demand. In addition, the capacity factor was optimized from 29% to 34-47%. However, as the HPPs installed at SFR work as one system, the constrain of the river flow reduced the hydroelectricity by 4.4% for 750 MW. We concluded that PV significantly influenced water security and ecological conditions of SFR, with benefits in the range of 250-750 MW. The research provides assessment on substituting hydro for solar power on the operation of reservoirs in cascade and identifies the correlated benefits in social and ecological aspects. This information can support decisions of water and energy supply system operators and public policies focused on integrated resources management in semi-arid regions.

Drivers of groundwater utilization in water-limited rice production systems in Nepal.

Most rice farmers in Nepal's Terai region do not fully utilize irrigation during breaks in monsoon rainfall. This leads to yield losses despite abundant groundwater resources and ongoing expansion of diesel pumps and tubewell infrastructure. We investigate this puzzle by characterizing delay factors governing tubewell irrigation across wealth and precipitation gradients. After the decision to irrigate, different factors delay irrigation by roughly one week. While more sustainable and inexpensive energy for pumping may eventually catalyze transformative change, we identify near-term interventions that may increase rice farmers' resilience to water stress in smallholder-dominated farming communities based on prevailing types of irrigation infrastructure.

Balancing indicators for sustainable intensification of crop production at field and river basin levels.

Adequate tools for evaluating sustainable intensification (SI) of crop production for agro-hydrological system are not readily available. Building on existing concepts, we propose a framework for evaluating SI at the field and river basin levels. The framework serves as a means to assess and visualise SI indicator values, including yield, water-use efficiency and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE), alongside water and nitrogen surpluses and their effects on water quantity and quality. To demonstrate the SI assessment framework, we used empirical data for both the field level (the Static Fertilization Experiment at Bad Lauchstädt) and the river basin level (the Selke basin, 463 km2) in central Germany. Crop yield and resource use efficiency varied considerably from 1980 to 2014, but without clear trends. NUE frequently fell below the desirable range (<50%), exposing the environment to a large N surplus (>80 kg N ha-1). For the catchment as a whole, the average nitrate-N concentration (3.6 mg L-1) was slightly higher than the threshold of 2.5 mg L-1 nitrate-N in surface water. However, weather and climate-related patterns, due to their effects on transport capacity and dilution, influenced water quantity and quality indicators more than agronomic practices. To achieve SI of crop production in the Selke basin, irrigation and soil moisture management are required to reduce yield variability and reduce N surpluses at field level. In addition, optimum application of fertiliser and manure could help to reduce the nitrate-N concentration below the set water quality standards in the Selke basin. In this way, there is scope for increase in yields and resource use efficiencies, and thus potential reduction of environmental impacts at basin level. We conclude that the framework is useful for assessing sustainable production, by simultaneously considering objectives related to crop production, resource-use efficiency and environmental quality, at both field and river basin levels.

Impact of land use and land cover transitions and climate on evapotranspiration in the Lake Naivasha Basin, Kenya.

The Lake Naivasha Basin in Kenya has experienced significant land use cover changes (LUCC) that has been hypothesized to have altered the hydrological regime in recent decades. While it is generally recognized that LUCC will impact evapotranspiration (ET), the precise nature of such impact is not very well understood. This paper describes how land use conversions among grassland and croplands have influenced ET in the Lake Naivasha Basin for the period 2003 to 2012. MODIS data products were used in combination with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets to model ET using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS). The results indicate that conversions from grassland to cropland accounted for increases in ET of up to 12% while conversion from cropland back to grasslands (abandonment) reduced ET by ~4%. This suggests that recently cultivated agricultural lands could increase local water demands, while abandonment of the farms could decrease the water loss and eventually increase the water availability. Also, recovery of ET following re-conversion from cropland to grassland might be impeded due to delayed recovery of soil properties since parts of the catchment are continuously being transformed with no ample time given for soil recovery. The annual ET over the 10 years shows an estimated decline from 724 mm to 650 mm (~10%). This decline is largely explained by a reduction in net radiation, an increase in actual vapour pressure whose net effect also led to decrease in the surface-air temperature difference. These findings suggest that in order to better understand LUCC effects on water resources of Lake Naivasha, it is important to take into account the effect of LUCC and climate because large scale changes of vegetation type from grassland to cropland substantially will increase evapotranspiration with implications on the water balance.