Fall incidents in nursing home residents: development of a predictive clinical rule (FINDER).

OBJECTIVES: To develop (part I) and validate (part II) an electronic fall risk clinical rule (CR) to identify nursing home residents (NH-residents) at risk for a fall incident. DESIGN: Observational, retrospective case-control study. SETTING: Nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1668 (824 in part I, 844 in part II) NH-residents from the Netherlands were included. Data of participants from part I were excluded in part II. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Development and validation of a fall risk CR in NH-residents. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the fall risk-variables in part I. With these, three CRs were developed (ie, at the day of the fall incident and 3 days and 5 days prior to the fall incident). The overall prediction quality of the CRs were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC), and a cut-off value was determined for the predicted risk ensuring a sensitivity ≥0.85. Finally, one CR was chosen and validated in part II using a new retrospective data set. RESULTS: Eleven fall risk-variables were identified in part I. The AUROCs of the three CRs form part I were similar: the AUROC for models I, II and III were 0.714 (95% CI: 0.679 to 0.748), 0.715 (95% CI: 0.680 to 0.750) and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.674 to 0.744), respectively. Model III (ie, 5 days prior to the fall incident) was chosen for validation in part II. The validated AUROC of the CR, obtained in part II, was 0.603 (95% CI: 0.565 to 0.641) with a sensitivity of 83.41% (95% CI: 79.44% to 86.76%) and a specificity of 27.25% (95% CI 23.11% to 31.81%). CONCLUSION: Medication data and resident characteristics alone are not sufficient enough to develop a successful CR with a high sensitivity and specificity to predict fall risk in NH-residents. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not available.

Validation of an automated delirium prediction model (DElirium MOdel (DEMO)): an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is an underdiagnosed, severe and costly disorder, and 30%-40% of cases can be prevented. A fully automated model to predict delirium (DEMO) in older people has been developed, and the objective of this study is to validate the model in a hospital setting. SETTING: Secondary care, one hospital with two locations. DESIGN: Observational study. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 450 randomly selected patients over 60 years of age admitted to Zuyderland Medical Centre. Patients who presented with delirium on admission were excluded. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Development of delirium through chart review. RESULTS: A total of 383 patients were included in this study. The analysis was performed for delirium within 1, 3 and 5 days after a DEMO score was obtained. Sensitivity was 87.1% (95% CI 0.756 to 0.939), 84.2% (95% CI 0.732 to 0.915) and 82.7% (95% CI 0.734 to 0.893) for 1, 3 and 5 days, respectively, after obtaining the DEMO score. Specificity was 77.9% (95% CI 0.729 to 0.882), 81.5% (95% CI 0.766 to 0.856) and 84.5% (95% CI 0.797 to 0.884) for 1, 3 and 5 days, respectively, after obtaining the DEMO score. CONCLUSION: DEMO is a satisfactory prediction model but needs further prospective validation with in-person delirium confirmation. In the future, DEMO will be applied in clinical practice so that physicians will be aware of when a patient is at an increased risk of developing delirium, which will facilitate earlier recognition and diagnosis, and thus will allow the implementation of prevention measures.

Supporting clinical rules engine in the adjustment of medication (SCREAM): protocol of a multicentre, prospective, randomised study.

BACKGROUND: In the nursing home population, it is estimated that 1 in every 3 patients is polymedicated and given their considerable frailty, these patients are especially prone to adverse drug reactions. Clinical pharmacist-led medication reviews are considered successful interventions to improve medication safety in the inpatient setting. Due to the limited available evidence concerning the benefits of medication reviews performed in the nursing home setting, we propose a study aiming to demonstrate a positive effect that a clinical decision support system, as a health care intervention, may have on the target population. The primary objective of this study is to reduce the number of patients with at least one event when using the clinical decision support system compared to the regular care. These events consist of hospital referrals, delirium, falls, and/or deaths. METHOD/DESIGN: This study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised study with a cluster group design. The randomisation will be per main nursing home physician and stratified per ward (somatic and psychogeriatric). In the intervention group the clinical decision support system will be used to screen medication list, laboratory values and medical history in order to obtain potential clinical relevant remarks. The remarks will be sent to the main physician and feedback will be provided whether the advice was followed or not. In the control group regular care will be applied. DISCUSSION: We strongly believe that by using a clinical decision support system, medication reviews are performed in a standardised way which leads to comparable results between patients. In addition, using a clinical decision support system eliminates the time factor to perform medication reviews as the major problems related to medication, laboratory values, indications and/or established patient characteristics will be directly available. In this way, and in order to make the medication review process complete, consultation within healthcare professionals and/or the patient itself will be time effective and the medication surveillance could be performed around the clock. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR5165 . Registered 2nd April 2015.