Developing clinical prediction models for nonrecovery in older patients seeking care for back pain: the back complaints in the elders prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Back pain is a leading cause of disability worldwide and is common in older adults. No clinical prediction models for poor long-term outcomes have been developed in older patients with back pain. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 3 clinical prediction models for nonrecovery in this population. A prospective cohort study in general practice was conducted (Back Complaints in the Elders, Netherlands), including 675 patients >55 years with a new episode of care for back pain. Three definitions of nonrecovery were used combining 6-month and 12-month follow-up data: (1) persistent back pain, (2) persistent disability, and (3) perceived nonrecovery. Sample size calculation resulted in a maximum of 14 candidate predictors that were selected from back pain prognostic literature and clinical experience. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the models (backward selection procedure). Models' performance was evaluated with explained variance (Nagelkerke's R2), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) measures. The models were internally validated in 250 bootstrapped samples to correct for overoptimism. All 3 models displayed good overall performance during development and internal validation (ie, R2 > 30%; AUC > 0.77). The model predicting persistent disability performed best, showing good calibration, discrimination (AUC 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.83-0.89; optimism-adjusted AUC 0.85), and explained variance (R2 49%, optimism-adjusted R2 46%). Common predictors in all models were: age, chronic duration, disability, a recent back pain episode, and patients' recovery expectations. Spinal morning stiffness and pain during spinal rotation were included in 2 of 3 models. These models should be externally validated before being used in a clinical primary care setting.

Natural History of Back Pain in Older Adults over Five Years.

INTRODUCTION: Back pain is a prevalent health problem. Research often focuses on adults. Evidence on the long-term course of back pain in older patients is limited. A prospective cohort study (BACE) was conducted in a primary care setting in the Netherlands. We aim to investigate the 5-year course and medical consumption of older adults (>55 years) presenting with back pain in general practice. METHODS: Patients aged >55 years, consulting their general practitioner with a new back pain episode, were included between 2009 to 2011. Follow-up questionnaires included, for example, pain severity, disability, quality of life, recovery, and medical consumption. RESULTS: A total of 675 patients (mean age ± SD, 66.4 ± 7.6 years) participated, showing a mean (± SD) back pain reduction from 5.2 (± 2.7) to 3.6 (± 2.8) (numeric rating scale, 0 to 10) at 3 months follow-up; disability decreased from 9.8 (± 5.8) to 7.8 (± 6.2) (Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire, 0 to 24). After 6 months, this remained practically constant over time. Medical consumption was highest in the first months; medication was used by 72% at baseline and approximately one-third (25% to 39%) during follow-up. At 5-year follow-up (response rate 58%; n = 392), 43% had recovered; a majority reported persistent or recurrent back pain. CONCLUSION: Clinically relevant improvements in back pain intensity and disability were seen in the first 3 to 6 months of follow-up. A majority of patients does not become pain free within 3 months; this does not improve over 5 years. However, most patients stop consulting health care professionals during follow-up. Current medical strategies may not be sufficient in older back pain patients, where back pain becomes a recurrent or chronic condition in the majority of patients.

Effects of health care interventions on quality of life among frail elderly: a systematized review.

INTRODUCTION: Many health care interventions have been developed that aim to improve or maintain the quality of life for frail elderly. A clear overview of these health care interventions for frail elderly and their effects on quality of life is missing. PURPOSE: To provide a systematic overview of the effect of health care interventions on quality of life of frail elderly. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in Embase, Medline (OvidSP), Cochrane Central, Cinahl, PsycInfo and Web of Science, up to and including November 2017. Studies describing health care interventions for frail elderly were included if the effect of the intervention on quality of life was described. The effects of the interventions on quality of life were described in an overview of the included studies. RESULTS: In total 4,853 potentially relevant articles were screened for relevance, of which 19 intervention studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies were very heterogeneous in the design: measurement of frailty, health care intervention and outcome measurement differ. Health care interventions described were: multidisciplinary treatment, exercise programs, testosterone gel, nurse home visits and acupuncture. Seven of the nineteen intervention studies, describing different health care interventions, reported a statistically significant effect on subdomains of quality of life, two studies reported a statistically significant effect of the intervention on the overall quality of life score. Ten studies reported no statistically significant difference between the intervention and control groups. CONCLUSION: Reported effects of health care interventions on frail elderly persons' quality of life are inconsistent, with most of the studies reporting no differences between the intervention and control groups. As the number of frail elderly persons in the population will continue to grow, it will be important to continue the search for effective health care interventions. Alignment of studies in design and outcome measurements is needed.