Predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilization: an external validation study.

STUDY QUESTION: Are the published pre-treatment and post-treatment McLernon models, predicting cumulative live birth rates (LBR) over multiple complete IVF cycles, valid in a different context? SUMMARY ANSWER: With minor recalibration of the pre-treatment model, both McLernon models accurately predict cumulative LBR in a different geographical context and a more recent time period. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous IVF prediction models have estimated the chance of a live birth after a single fresh embryo transfer, thereby excluding the important contribution of embryo cryopreservation and subsequent IVF cycles to cumulative LBR. In contrast, the recently developed McLernon models predict the cumulative chance of a live birth over multiple complete IVF cycles at two certain time points: (i) before initiating treatment using baseline characteristics (pre-treatment model) and (ii) after the first IVF cycle adding treatment related information to update predictions (post-treatment model). Before implementation of these models in clinical practice, their predictive performance needs to be validated in an independent cohort. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: External validation study in an independent prospective cohort of 1515 Dutch women who participated in the OPTIMIST study (NTR2657) and underwent their first IVF treatment between 2011 and 2014. Participants underwent a total of 2881 complete treatment cycles, with a complete cycle defined as all fresh and frozen thawed embryo transfers resulting from one episode of ovarian stimulation. The follow up duration was 18 months after inclusion, and the primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy leading to live birth. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Model performance was externally validated up to three complete treatment cycles, using the linear predictor as described by McLernon et al. to calculate the probability of a live birth. Discrimination was expressed by the c-statistic and calibration was depicted graphically in a calibration plot. In contrast to the original model development cohort, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC) and body weight were available in the OPTIMIST cohort, and evaluated as potential additional predictors for model improvement. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Applying the McLernon models to the OPTIMIST cohort, the c-statistic of the pre-treatment model was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) and of the post-treatment model 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.74). The calibration plot of the pre-treatment model indicated a slight overestimation of the cumulative LBR. To improve calibration, the pre-treatment model was recalibrated by subtracting 0.35 from the intercept. The post-treatment model calibration plot revealed accurate cumulative LBR predictions. After addition of AMH, AFC and body weight to the McLernon models, the c-statistic of the updated pre-treatment model improved slightly to 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.68), and of the updated post-treatment model remained at the previous level of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73). Using the recalibrated pre-treatment model, a woman aged 30 years with 2 years of primary infertility who starts ICSI treatment for male factor infertility has a chance of 40% of a live birth from the first complete cycle, increasing to 72% over three complete cycles. If this woman weighs 70 kg, has an AMH of 1.5 ng/mL and an AFC of 10 measured at the beginning of her treatment, the updated pre-treatment model revises the estimated chance of a live birth to 30% in the first complete cycle and 59% over three complete cycles. If this woman then has five retrieved oocytes, no embryos cryopreserved and a single fresh cleavage stage embryo transfer in her first ICSI cycle, the post-treatment model estimates the chances of a live birth at 28 and 58%, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Two randomized controlled trials (RCT) evaluating the effectiveness of gonadotropin dose individualization on basis of the AFC were nested within the OPTIMIST study. The strict dosing regimens, the RCT in- and exclusion criteria and the limited follow up time of 18 months might have influenced model performance in this independent cohort. Also, consistent with the original model development study, external validation was performed using the optimistic assumption that the cumulative LBR in couples who discontinue treatment without a live birth would have been equal to that of those who continue treatment. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: After national recalibration to account for geographical differences in IVF treatment, the McLernon prediction models can be introduced as new counselling tools in clinical practice to inform patients and to complement clinical reasoning. These models are the first to offer an objective and personalized estimate of the cumulative probability of a live birth over multiple complete IVF cycles. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funds were obtained for this study. M.J.C.E., D.J.M. and S.B. have nothing to disclose. J.A.L, S.C.O, T.C.v.T. and H.LT. received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. F.J.M.B. receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Merck BV (the Netherlands) and Ferring pharmaceutics BV (the Netherlands), for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics on automated AMH assay development, and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

BRCA1 mutation carriers have a lower number of mature oocytes after ovarian stimulation for IVF/PGD.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether BRCA1/2 mutation carriers produce fewer mature oocytes after ovarian stimulation for in vitro fertilization (IVF) with preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), in comparison to a PGD control group. METHODS: A retrospective, international, multicenter cohort study was performed on data of first PGD cycles performed between January 2006 and September 2015. Data were extracted from medical files. The study was performed in one PGD center and three affiliated IVF centers in the Netherlands and one PGD center in Belgium. Exposed couples underwent PGD because of a pathogenic BRCA1/2 mutation, controls for other monogenic conditions. Only couples treated in a long gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist-suppressive protocol, stimulated with at least 150 IU follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), were included. Women suspected to have a diminished ovarian reserve status due to chemotherapy, auto-immune disorders, or genetic conditions (other than BRCA1/2 mutations) were excluded. A total of 106 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers underwent PGD in this period, of which 43 (20 BRCA1 and 23 BRCA2 mutation carriers) met the inclusion criteria. They were compared to 174 controls selected by frequency matching. RESULTS: Thirty-eight BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (18 BRCA1 and 20 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and 154 controls proceeded to oocyte pickup. The median number of mature oocytes was 7.0 (interquartile range (IQR) 4.0-9.0) in the BRCA group as a whole, 6.5 (IQR 4.0-8.0) in BRCA1 mutation carriers, 7.5 (IQR 5.5-9.0) in BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 8.0 (IQR 6.0-11.0) in controls. Multiple linear regression analysis with the number of mature oocytes as a dependent variable and adjustment for treatment center, female age, female body mass index (BMI), type of gonadotropin used, and the total dose of gonadotropins administered revealed a significantly lower yield of mature oocytes in the BRCA group as compared to controls (p = 0.04). This finding could be fully accounted for by the BRCA1 subgroup (BRCA1 mutation carriers versus controls p = 0.02, BRCA2 mutation carriers versus controls p = 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian response to stimulation, expressed as the number of mature oocytes, was reduced in BRCA1 but not in BRCA2 mutation carriers. Although oocyte yield was in correspondence to a normal response in all subgroups, this finding points to a possible negative influence of the BRCA1 gene on ovarian reserve.

Ocular sarcoidosis in Thailand.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of pulmonary sarcoidosis in patients with uveitis from the University Referral Centre in Thailand and to report on their clinical characteristics. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of results of radiological examinations of 209 consecutive new patients, diagnosed with uveitis. In patients with signs of pulmonary sarcoidosis, we reviewed clinical characteristics including age, gender, laterality and anatomical location of uveitis, and complications. RESULTS: From 209 chest X-ray (CXR) examinations, one patient exhibited radiological signs typical of stage 1 sarcoidosis. Chest CT of three patients with posterior multifocal chorioretinitis (PMC) revealed abnormalities suggesting the diagnosis of pulmonary sarcoidosis. All PMC patients were females older than 50 years; they had no pulmonary complaints and their CXRs were without abnormalities. CONCLUSION: Ocular sarcoidosis is prevalent in Thailand and our findings suggest that possibly more patients with sarcoidosis would be identified if diagnosis was thought of and ancillary tests were performed.