Circular food system approaches can support current European protein intake levels while reducing land use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Protein transition and circular food system transition are two proposed strategies for supporting food system sustainability. Here we model animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein ratios within a European circular food system, finding that maintaining the current animal-plant protein share while redesigning the system with circular principles resulted in the largest relative reduction of 44% in land use and 70% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with the current food system. Shifting from a 60:40 to a 40:60 ratio of animal-sourced proteins to plant-sourced proteins yielded a 60% reduction in land use and an 81% GHG emission reduction, while supporting nutritionally adequate diets. Differences between current and recommended total protein intake did not substantially impact minimal land use and GHG emissions. Micronutrient inadequacies occurred with less than 18 g animal protein per capita per day. Redesigning the food system varied depending on whether land use or GHG emissions were reduced-highlighting the need for a food system approach when designing policies to enhance human and planetary health.

Environmental assessment of diets: overview and guidance on indicator choice.

Comprehensive but interpretable assessment of the environmental performance of diets involves choosing a set of appropriate indicators. Current knowledge and data gaps on the origin of dietary foodstuffs restrict use of indicators relying on site-specific information. This Personal View summarises commonly used indicators for assessing the environmental performance of diets, briefly outlines their benefits and drawbacks, and provides recommendations on indicator choices for actors across multiple fields involved in activities that include the environmental assessment of diets. We then provide recommendations on indicator choices for actors across multiple fields involved in activities that use environmental assessments, such as health and nutrition experts, policy makers, decision makers, and private-sector and public-sector sustainability officers. We recommend that environmental assessment of diets should include indicators for at least the five following areas: climate change, biosphere integrity, blue water consumption, novel entities, and impacts on natural resources (especially wild fish stocks), to capture important environmental trade-offs. If more indicators can be handled in the assessment, indicators to capture impacts related to land use quantity and quality and green water consumption should be used. For ambitious assessments, indicators related to biogeochemical flows, stratospheric ozone depletion, and energy use can be added.

Interventions to increase circularity and reduce environmental impacts in food systems.

Applying specific circularity interventions to the food system may have environmental benefits. Using an iterative linear food system optimisation model (FOODSOM), we assess how changes in human diets, imports and exports, and the utilisation of waste streams impact land use and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). After including these circularity principles, land use and GHG emissions were on average 40% and 68% lower than in the current food system, primarily driven by a reduction in production volumes and a shift towards feeding the domestic population. Shifting from the current diet to a circular diet decreased land use with 43% and GHG emissions with 52%. Allowing up to half of each nutrient in the human diet to be imported, while balancing imports with equal exports in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, also decreased land use (up to 34%) and GHG emissions (up to 26%) compared to no imported food. Our findings show that circularity interventions should not be implemented mutually exclusively; by combining a circular diet with imported food and fully utilising waste streams, the lowest land use and GHG emissions can be realised.

Low-opportunity-cost feed can reduce land-use-related environmental impacts by about one-third in China.

Feeding animals more low-opportunity-cost feed products (LCFs), such as food waste and by-products, may decrease food-feed competition for cropland. Using a feed allocation optimization model that considers the availability of feed sources and animal requirements for protein and energy, we explored the perspectives of feeding more LCFs to animals in China. We found that about one-third of the animal feed consisted of human-edible products, while only 23% of the available LCFs were used as feed during 2009-2013. An increased utilization of LCFs (45-90 Mt) could potentially save 25-32% of feed-producing cropland area without impairing livestock productivity. Parallelly, about one-third of feed-related irrigation water, synthetic fertilizer and greenhouse gas emissions would be saved. Re-allocating the saved cropland could sustain the food energy demand of 30-185 million people. Achieving the potentials of increased LCF use requires improved technology and coordination among stakeholders.

The compatibility of circularity and national dietary recommendations for animal products in five European countries: a modelling analysis on nutritional feasibility, climate impact, and land use.

BACKGROUND: National food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) are generally designed from a human health perspective and often disregard sustainability aspects. Circular food production systems are a promising solution to achieve sustainable healthy diets. In such systems, closing nutrient cycles where possible and minimising external inputs contribute to reducing environmental impacts. This change could be made by limiting livestock feed to available low-opportunity-cost biomass (LOCB). We examined the compatibility of national dietary guidelines for animal products with livestock production on the basis of the feed supplied by available LOCB. METHODS: We investigated whether the national dietary recommendations for animal products for Bulgaria, Malta, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland could be met with domestically available LOCB. We used an optimisation model that allocates feed resources to different species of farm animals. Of the resulting scenarios, we assessed the nutritional feasibility, climate impact, and land use. FINDINGS: Our results showed the environmental benefits of reducing the recommended animal products in the FBDGs, and that animal products from LOCB could provide between 22% (Netherlands) and 47% (Switzerland) of total protein contributions of the FBDGs. This range covers a substantial part of the nutritional needs of the studied populations. To fully meet these needs, consumption of plant-based food could be increased. INTERPRETATION: Our results contribute to the discussion of what quantities of animal products in dietary guidelines are compatible with circular food systems. Thus, national dietary recommendations for animal products should be revised and recommended quantities lowered. This finding is consistent with recent efforts to include sustainability criteria in dietary guidelines. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation and the Dutch Research Council.

Circularity in animal production requires a change in the EAT-Lancet diet in Europe.

It is not known whether dietary guidelines proposing a limited intake of animal protein are compatible with the adoption of circular food systems. Using a resource-allocation model, we compared the effects of circularity on the supply of animal-source nutrients in Europe with the nutritional requirements of the EAT-Lancet reference diet. We found the two to be compatible in terms of total animal-source proteins but not specific animal-source foods; in particular, the EAT-Lancet guidelines recommend larger quantities of poultry meat over beef and pork, while a circular food system produces mainly milk, dairy-beef and pork. Compared with the EAT-Lancet reference diet, greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by up to 31% and arable land use reduced by up to 42%. Careful consideration of the feasible substitutability between animal-source foods is needed to define potential roles of animal products in circular human diets.

Black soldier fly reared on pig manure: Bioconversion efficiencies, nutrients in the residual material, greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions.

There is an increased interest for using insects, such as the black soldier fly, to treat surplus manure and upcycle nutrients into the food system. Understanding the influence that BSFL have on nutrient flows and nutrient losses during manure bioconversion is key for sustainability assessments. Here we quantified and compared nutrient balances, nutrient levels in residual materials and emissions of greenhouse gases and ammonia between manure incubated with black soldier fly larvae (BSFL) and manure without BSFL, during a 9-day experimental period. We obtained high analytical recoveries, ranging between 95 and 103%. We found that of the pig manure supplied, 12.5% of dry matter (DM), 13% of carbon, 25% of nitrogen, 14% of energy, 8.5% of phosphorus and 9% of potassium was stored in BSFL body mass. When BSFL were present, more carbon dioxide (247 vs 148 g/kg of DM manure) and ammonia-nitrogen (7 vs 4.5 g/kg of DM manure) emitted than when larvae were absent. Methane, which was the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, was produced at the same levels (1.3 vs 1.1 g/kg of DM manure) in both treatments, indicating the main role that manure microbial methane emissions play. Nitrous oxide was negligible in both treatments. The uptake of nutrients by the larvae and the higher carbon dioxide and ammonia emissions modified the nutrient composition of the residual material substantially relative to the fresh manure. Our study provides a reliable basis to quantify the environmental impact of using BSFL in future life cycle assessments.

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals.

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Halting European Union soybean feed imports favours ruminants over pigs and poultry.

The European Union (EU) livestock sector relies on imported soybean as a feed source, but feeding soybean to animals leads to a loss of macronutrients compared to direct human consumption, and soybean production is associated with deforestation. Here we show that 75-82% of current EU animal fat and protein production could be sustained without soybean imports while avoiding increased use of cropland for feed production within the EU. Reduced soybean feed exports, mainly from South America, would free up 11-14 million hectares outside the EU, but indirect land-use changes would increase demand for palm oil produced in southeast Asia. Avoiding imported soybean feeds would result in reduced EU pork and poultry production; increased plant-based food consumption would be required to maintain the supply of essential nutrients for human diets. Optimizing livestock production to overcome dependency on imported soybean feed can reduce cropland demand in deforestation-prone areas while supporting the nutritional requirements of EU diets-but will require progressive policies targeting all aspects of the food system.

Principles, drivers and opportunities of a circular bioeconomy.

A circular, bio-based economy could provide the pathway to a sustainable future. Here we present five ecological principles to guide biomass use towards a circular bioeconomy: safeguarding and regenerating the health of our (agro)ecosystems; avoiding non-essential products and the waste of essential ones; prioritizing biomass streams for basic human needs; utilizing and recycling by-products of (agro)ecosystems; and using renewable energy while minimizing overall energy use. Implementing these principles calls for a transformation of our current economic system, including fundamental changes to policies, technologies, organizations, social behaviour and markets.

SHARP-Indicators Database towards a public database for environmental sustainability.

To initiate the achievement of an European-wide applicable public database for indicators of environmental sustainability of the diet, we developed the SHARP Indicators Database (SHARP-ID). A comprehensive description of the development of the SHARP-ID is provided in this article. In the SHARP-ID, environmental impact assessment was based on attributional life cycle analyses using environmental indicators greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) and land use (LU). Life cycle inventory data of 182 primary products were combined with data on production, trade and transport, and adjusted for consumption amount using conversions factors for production, edible portion, cooking losses and gains, and for food losses and waste in order to derive estimates of GHGE and LU for the foods as eaten. Extrapolations based on similarities in type of food, production system and ingredient composition were made to obtain estimates of GHGE and LU per kg of food as eaten for 944 food items coded with a unique FoodEx2-code of EFSA and consumed in four European countries, i.e. Denmark, Czech Republic, Italy and France. This LCA-food-item database can be linked to food intake data collected at the individual level in order to calculate the environmental impact of individual's diets. The application of this database to European survey data is described in an original research article entitled "Dietary choices and environmental impact in four European countries" (Mertens et al., 2019).

Decoupling Livestock from Land Use through Industrial Feed Production Pathways.

One of the main challenges for the 21st century is to balance the increasing demand for high-quality proteins while mitigating environmental impacts. In particular, cropland-based production of protein-rich animal feed for livestock rearing results in large-scale agricultural land-expansion, nitrogen pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we propose and analyze the long-term potential of alternative animal feed supply routes based on industrial production of microbial proteins (MP). Our analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending on socio-economic development and MP production pathways, between 10-19% of conventional crop-based animal feed protein demand. As a result, global cropland area, global nitrogen losses from croplands and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can be decreased by 6% (0-13%), 8% (-3-8%), and 7% (-6-9%), respectively. Interestingly, the technology to industrially produce MP at competitive costs is directly accessible for implementation and has the potential to cause a major structural change in the agro-food system.

Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption.

The need for more sustainable production and consumption of animal source food (ASF) is central to the achievement of the sustainable development goals: within this context, wise use of land is a core challenge and concern. A key question in feeding the future world is: how much ASF should we eat? We demonstrate that livestock raised under the circular economy concept could provide a significant, nonnegligible part (9-23 g/per capita) of our daily protein needs (~50-60 g/per capita). This livestock then would not consume human-edible biomass, such as grains, but mainly convert leftovers from arable land and grass resources into valuable food, implying that production of livestock feed is largely decoupled from arable land. The availability of these biomass streams for livestock then determines the boundaries for livestock production and consumption. Under this concept, the competition for land for feed or food would be minimized and compared to no ASF, including some ASF in the human diet could free up about one quarter of global arable land. Our results also demonstrate that restricted growth in consumption of ASF in Africa and Asia would be feasible under these boundary conditions, while reductions in the rest of the world would be necessary to meet land use sustainability criteria. Managing this expansion and contraction of future consumption of ASF is essential for achieving sustainable nutrition security.