Herbivory and misidentification of target habitat constrain region-wide restoration success of spekboom (Portulacaria afra) in South African subtropical succulent thicket.

Restoration of degraded subtropical succulent thicket, via the planting of Portulacaria afra (spekboom) truncheons, is the focus of a public works programme funded by the South African government. The goals of the programme, which started in 2004, are to create jobs, sequester carbon, restore biodiversity, reduce erosion, improve soil water holding capacity and catalyse private sector investment for upscaling of restoration. Here we report on a region-wide experiment to identify factors that can improve project success. Measures of success were survivorship and annual aboveground biomass carbon sequestration (ABCsr) of spekboom truncheons some 33-57 months after planting-starting in March 2008-into 173 fenced plots (0.25 ha) located throughout the global extent of spekboom thicket vegetation. We also collected data for 18 explanatory variables under the control of managers, and an additional 39 variables reflecting soil physical and chemical characteristics and rainfall patterns post restoration, all beyond the influence of managers. Since the latter covariates were available for only 83 plots, we analysed the two data sets separately. We used a prediction rule ensemble to determine the most important predictors of restoration success. There was great variation in percentage survivorship (median = 24, range = 0-100%) and ABCsr (median = 0.009, range = 0-0.38 t C ha-1 yr-1). The model using management variables explained less variance (53%) in survivorship than the model incorporating additional soil and rainfall covariates (62%). ABCsr models were better fits (78 and 88% variance explained, respectively). All model configurations identified browse intensity as a highly influential predictor of restoration success. Predicted success was highest for plots located in target habitat; however, only 45% were thus located, suggesting the need for expert input and habitat modelling for improving target habitat identification. Frost exposure was another important predictor influencing all models but was likely a consequence of locating sites off target habitat. Sites planted on equatorward slopes during the warm season showed reduced carbon sequestration, possibly due to elevated soil moisture stress associated with high radiation loads. Physiographic factors associated with improved restoration success were location on sloping ground (reduced frost exposure), increasing longitude (more warm-season rainfall) and increasing latitude (less frost coastwards). Few trends were evident among post-restoration climatic factors beyond the control of managers. Higher rainfall during the year post restoration had a negative impact on carbon sequestration while higher rain during the early months post restoration had a positive effect on both carbon sequestration and survivorship. Soil factors showed little importance for the survivorship model, whereas silt content, % K and Mg CEC emerged as predictors of carbon sequestration. Our results have direct relevance for improving the success of landscape-scale restoration projects envisioned for the ca. 8,930 km2 of degraded spekboom thicket.

A biome-wide experiment to assess the effects of propagule size and treatment on the survival of Portulacaria afra (spekboom) truncheons planted to restore degraded subtropical thicket of South Africa.

Insights from biome-wide experiments can improve efficacy of landscape-scale ecological restoration projects. Such insights enable implementers to set temporal and geographical benchmarks and to identify key drivers of success during the often decades-long restoration trajectory. Here we report on a biome-wide experiment aimed at informing the ecological restoration of thousands of hectares of degraded subtropical thicket dominated by the succulent shrub, Portulacaria afra (spekboom). Restoration using spekboom truncheons has the potential to sequester, for a semi-arid region, large amounts of ecosystem carbon, while regenerating a host of associated ecosystem services. This study evaluates, after about three years post-propagation, the effects of spekboom truncheon size and treatment on survivorship in 40 fence-enclosed (0.25 ha) plots located in target habitat across the entire spekboom thicket biome. In each plot, locally harvested spekboom truncheons, comprising eight size/treatment combinations, were planted in replicated rows of between 24 and 49 individuals, depending on treatment. The experiment assessed the role of truncheon size, spacing, application of rooting hormone and watering at planting on survivorship percentage as an indicator of restoration success. All eight combinations recorded extreme minimum survivorship values of zero, while the range of extreme maximum values was 70-100%. Larger truncheons (>22.5 mm diameter) had almost double the survivorship (ca. 45%) than smaller truncheons (< 15 mm) (ca. 25%). Planting large, untreated truncheons at 1 m intervals-as opposed to 2 m intervals recommended in the current restoration protocol-resulted in no significant change in survivorship. The application of rooting hormone and water at planting had no significant effect on restoration success for both large and small truncheons. While our results do not provide an evidence base for changing the current spekboom planting protocol, we recommend research on the financial and economic costs and benefits of different propagation strategies in real-world contexts.

Site selection for subtropical thicket restoration: mapping cold-air pooling in the South African sub-escarpment lowlands.

Restoration of subtropical thicket in South Africa using the plant Portulacaria afra (an ecosystem engineer) has been hampered, in part, by selecting sites that are frost prone-this species is intolerant of frost. Identifying parts of the landscape that are exposed to frost is often challenging. Our aim is to calibrate an existing cold-air pooling (CAP) model to predict where frost is likely to occur in the valleys along the sub-escarpment lowlands (of South Africa) where thicket is dominant. We calibrated this model using two valleys that have been monitored during frost events. To test the calibrated CAP model, model predictions of frost-occurrence for six additional valleys were assessed using a qualitative visual comparison of existing treelines in six valleys-we observe a strong visual match between the predicted frost and frost-free zones with the subtropical thicket (frost-intolerant) and Nama-Karoo shrubland (frost-tolerant) treelines. In addition, we tested the model output using previously established transplant experiments; ∼300 plots planted with P. afra (known as the Thicket-Wide Plots) were established across the landscape-without consideration of frost-to assess the potential factors influencing the survival and growth of P. afra. Here we use a filtered subset of these plots (n = 70), and find that net primary production of P. afra was significantly lower in plots that the model predicted to be within the frost zone. We suggest using this calibrated CAP model as part of the site selection process when restoring subtropical thicket in sites that lie within valleys-avoiding frost zones will greatly increase the likelihood of restoration success.