Towards the Use of Renewable Syngas for the Decarbonization of Industry.

In this article we analyze how syngas produced in a renewable way can replace fossil-fuel based syngas production and thereby play an essential role in the decarbonization of industry. We show that in essentially all industrial applications renewable H2 and/or CO can replace syngas from fossil fuel feedstocks, and quantify the flows of these chemical building blocks required for the transformation of industry towards a net-zero emitting sector. We also undertake a techno-economic analysis, in which we demonstrate that under specific assumptions for the learning rates of some of the key process components, renewable syngas can become cost-competitive with that produced from fossil fuels. Cost competitiveness, however, only materializes for four of the five routes when natural gas prices are at least around 3 €/GJ and carbon taxes increase from 90 €/tCO2 today to 300 €/tCO2 in 2050.

A techno-economic perspective on rigid and flexible perovskite solar modules.

Perovskite solar cells have shown considerable developments in the last decade, and commercial applications are drawing closer. In this article, we present a techno-economic study of perovskite PV technologies. We compare published data on manufacturing costs of single-junction perovskite modules and find that they are dependent on the module design (rigid or flexible) and vary from 10 to almost 100 € per m2. We calculate the LCOE as a function of module efficiency and stability for a set of four module cost scenarios at 12.5, 25, 50, and 100 € per m2. The resulting LCOE varies from 4.3 to 25.5 ct kW-1 h-1 and shows low potential for immediate competition with crystalline silicon PV in the utility sector. Perovskite PV's competitive advantage lies in both lighter and less rigid modules, and in the development of tandem modules together with silicon. We hence extend the LCOE equation to highlight the benefit of producing flexible low-weight modules by roll-to-roll manufacturing, and modify the LCOE maps to showcase the benefits of tandem modules. Based on learning curve analyses applied to the CAPEX of single-junction and tandem modules, we develop three scenarios for the evolution of the LCOE of perovskite modules from 2025 to 2050. Under the optimistic scenarios, we find that the LCOE could reduce to 2.8 ct kW-1 h-1 by 2050.

Comparing energy system optimization models and integrated assessment models: Relevance for energy policy advice.

Background: The transition to a climate neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESOMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables. We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of scenario results across the models. Results: The results highlight how power generation and demand development are related and driven by regional and sectoral drivers. They also show that demand developments like for hydrogen can be linked with power generation potentials such as onshore wind power. Lastly, the results show that the role of nuclear power is related to the availability of wind resources. Conclusions: This comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESOM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind. The comparison shows that regional aggregations might conceal differences within regions that are potentially of interest for national policy makers thereby indicating a need for national-level analysis.

The urgency of the development of CO2 capture from ambient air.

CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) has the potential to develop into an important tool to address climate change. Given society's present reliance on fossil fuels, widespread adoption of CCS appears indispensable for meeting stringent climate targets. We argue that for conventional CCS to become a successful climate mitigation technology--which by necessity has to operate on a large scale--it may need to be complemented with air capture, removing CO(2) directly from the atmosphere. Air capture of CO(2) could act as insurance against CO(2) leaking from storage and furthermore may provide an option for dealing with emissions from mobile dispersed sources such as automobiles and airplanes.

Uncertainty of air pollution cost estimates: to what extent does it matter?

How large is the social cost penalty if one makes the wrong choice because of uncertainties in the estimates of the costs and benefits of environmental policy measures? For discrete choices there is no general rule other than the recommendation to always carefully compare costs and benefits when introducing policies for environmental protection. For continuous choices (e.g., the ceiling for the total emissions of a pollutant by an entire sector or region), it is instructive to look at the cost penalty as a function of the error in the incremental damage cost estimate. Using abatement cost curves for NOx, SO2, dioxins, and CO2, this paper evaluates the cost penalty for errors in the following: national emission ceilings for NOx and SO2 in each of 12 countries of Europe, an emission ceiling for dioxins in the UK, and limits for the emission of CO2 in Europe. The cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. An error by a factor of 3 due to uncertainties in the damage estimates for NOx and SO2 increases the total social cost by at most 20% and in most cases much less. For dioxins, the total social cost is increased by at most 10%. For CO2, several different possible cost curves are examined: for some the sensitivity to uncertainties is greater than for the other pollutants, but even here the penalty is less than 30% and in most cases much less if the true damage costs are twice as high as the ones estimated. The paper also quantifies the benefit of improving the accuracy of damage cost estimates by further research.