Trends in lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019): insights from Global Burden of Diseases data.

BACKGROUND: This study examines lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019) through age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis and Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data, unravelling the complex interplay of age, period, and birth cohort in shaping these trends. METHODS: Utilizing GBD and Spanish population data, the study calculates age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and employs Joinpoint analysis to identify significant trends. A-P-C analysis dissects the individual effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on incidence patterns. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, almost 738,000 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Spain, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. The ASIR of lung cancer in Spain from 1990 to 2019 showed a sustained upward trend in women (Average Annual Per cent Change: 2.5%, P < 0.05), reaching 23.3 cases per 100,000 in 2019, whilst men experienced a significant decrease in incidence rates (AAPC: -0.6%, P < 0.05), falling to 108.9 in 2019. The male-to-female incidence ratio decreased from 12.2 in 1992 to 4.9 in 2019. Joinpoint analysis identified distinct periods for both sexes, with men showing stability, decline and then a significant decrease, whereas women showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. The longitudinal age curves showed a consistently higher incidence risk in men, peaking in the 80-84 age group. Male cohorts since the 1920s showed a decreasing relative risk, whereas women showed fluctuations in risk over time. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer rates are falling in Spain, especially amongst men, due to lower smoking rates. The gender gap is closing, but prevention targeted at women is needed. Tighter tobacco control and research into other risk factors are essential. Understanding the long-term effects of smoking and early exposure is key to better prevention and treatment in Spain.

Global and regional trends in prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth: Age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2049.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth. METHODS: Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049. RESULTS: The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16 % globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049. CONCLUSIONS: Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.

The trend of lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 and lymphoma incidence trend prediction from 2018 to 2035: a log-linear regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to explore the incidence characteristics and trend prediction of lymphoma from 2005 to 2035, and to provide data basis for the prevention and control of lymphoma in China. Method: The data on lymphoma incidence in China from 2005 to 2017 were obtained from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect time trends. Age-period-cohort models were conducted to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the lymphoma incidence. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lymphoma incidence trends from 2018 to 2035. Results: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma was 6.26/100,000, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 4.11/100,000, with an AAPC of 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3%, 2.5%]. The ASIR was higher in men and urban areas than in women and rural areas, respectively. The age effect showed that the incidence risk of lymphoma increased with age. In the period effect, the incidence risk of lymphoma in rural areas decreased first and then increased with 2010 as the cutoff point. The overall risk of lymphoma incidence was higher in the cohort before the 1970-1974 birth cohort than in the cohort after. From 2018 to 2035, the lymphoma incidence in men, women, and urban areas will show an upward trend. Conclusion: From 2005 to 2017, the incidence of lymphoma showed an increasing trend, and was different in regions, genders, and age groups in China. It will show an upward trend from 2018 to 2035. These results are helpful for the formulation and adjustment of lymphoma prevention, control, and management strategies, and have important reference significance for the treatment of lymphoma in China.

Temporal trends and age-period-cohort analysis of depression in U.S. adults from 2013 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the lifetime prevalence of depression in the US population is 20.6 %. We aimed to understand the temporal trends in the prevalence of depression among adults in the United States during the period 2013-2022 as well as the effects of age, period, and cohort effects on the prevalence of depression. METHODS: Data from 3,139,488 participants in the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2013 to 2022 were used in this study. The joinpoint regression model was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to learn about the time trends in the prevalence of depression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort effects on the prevalence of depression. RESULTS: The prevalence of depression among adults in the United States showed an overall increasing trend from 2013 to 2022. The rate of increase was greater in males than females, with AAPC values of 1.44 % (95 % CI: 0.32-2.18), and 1.23 % (95 % CI: 0.32-2.25), respectively. Regarding the age effect, the risk of depression among adults in the United States generally showed an increasing and then decreasing trend with age. The risk of developing the condition reached its maximum at 50-54 years (RR = 1.28, 95 % CI = 1.26-1.30). Regarding the period effect, the risk of depression among US adults was higher during 2018-2022 than during 2013-2017. The overall cohort effect for depression prevalence was a higher risk for those born later, with a maximum RR of 1.51 (95 % CI: 1.47-1.54). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of adult depression in the United States is showing an increasing trend. Middle-aged people and those born later in life deserve more attention as high-risk groups. It is recommended that the condition burden of depression be reduced with the promotion of healthy lifestyles, the promotion of interpersonal communication, as well as enhanced mental health education and mental health literacy.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions. METHODS: We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates. RESULTS: The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas. CONCLUSIONS: Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030.

AIM: To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends. CONCLUSIONS: The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.

Introduction: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China. Methods: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively. Conclusions: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan. METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected. RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study.

Background: Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes. Methods: We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044. Findings: Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases. Interpretation: Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions. Funding: No funding was provided for this study.

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019.

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

Breast cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis by ethnic region, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the effects of age, diagnosis year (calendar period) and birth year (cohort) on the incidence trends of breast cancer among Golestan women, Northeast Iran, 2004-2018. METHODS: Incidence data were obtained by residential status (urban/rural) and ethnic region (Turkmens/non-Turkmens). We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated, and age-period-cohort (APC) models fitted to assess non-linear effects of period and cohort as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: The total number of female breast cancer cases in Golestan, 2004-2018, were 3853, with an overall ASR of 31.3. We found higher rates in urban population (40.5) and non-Turkmens region (38.5) compared to rural area (20.8) and Turkmens region (20.2), respectively. There were increasing trends in incidence rates overall (EAPC= 4.4; 95%CI: 2.2, 6.7), with greater changes in rural areas (EAPC=5.1), particularly among non-Turkmens (EAPC=5.8). The results of the APC analysis indicate the presence of significant non-linear cohort effects with increasing IRRs across successive birth cohorts (IRR=0.1 and IRR= 2.6 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively). CONCLUSION: We found increasing trends in breast cancer incidence among Golestan women over the study period, with disparities in patterns and trends by residence area and ethnic region. The observed cohort effects suggest an increasing prevalence of key risk factors for breast cancer in this Iranian population. Further investigations are warranted to clarify the relationships between determinants such as reproductive factors and ethnicity in the region.

Age-period-cohort analysis of colorectal cancer mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The current study aimed to describe and estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: This was an epidemiological study. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Age-period-cohort modelling was used to compute the net drift, local drift, cross-sectional age curve, longitudinal age curve, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort of CRC mortality in Saudi Arabia. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 1629 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1263 to 2045) CRC cancer deaths in Saudi Arabia, and the age-standardised mortality rate of CRC was 9.7 (95% UI: 7.8 to 11.6) per 100,000 population. For men, between 1990 and 2019, the total number of CRC deaths increased dramatically from 199 (95% UI: 130 to 286) in 2019 to 942 (95% UI: 725 to 1228). For the period effects, the relative risk (RR) of mortality rate for both sexes followed similar monotonic increase patterns throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study highlight a concerning increase in CRC mortality rates in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019, particularly among individuals aged 30-50 years. While mortality rates for men were higher at the start of the study period, more favourable trends for men were seen in the later years of the study period, indicating evolving gender disparities. Establishing evidence-based national screening guidelines and adopting multi-level diagnostics, risk assessment, and population-wide screening, especially for younger populations, is crucial.

Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of esophageal cancer in global, regional and national regions from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: In view of the high incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer, the latest statistical data on the disease burden of esophageal cancer can provide strategies for cancer screening, early detection and treatment, and help to rationally allocate health resources. This study provides an analysis of the global disease burden and risk factors of esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor (GBD) data, we present the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of esophageal cancer in 21 regions and 204 countries and different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age, period, and cohort trend of esophageal cancer in different SDI regions. The estimated proportion of DALY attributable to each risk factor from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of esophageal cancer, the number of deaths and DALY increased by 67.07%, 55.97% and 42.13%, respectively, but age standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased by 19.28%, 25.32% and 88.22%, respectively. Overall, the results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates in countries and regions with higher SDI levels showed a downward trend over time and with the passage of time. Conversely, there were no significant changes in incidence and mortality in countries and regions with low SDI levels. In the past 30 years, the incidence and death of esophageal cancer in the world has gradually changed to people over 80 years old, but the population aged 60-79 still accounts for the largest proportion. The global DALY in esophageal cancer is mainly attributable to smoking, followed by alcohol consumption and occupational exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Although ASIR, ASMR and ASDR have decreased significantly, esophageal cancer is still the main factor causing the disease burden worldwide. Public health administrators in low SDI and low-middle SDI countries are high-risk areas for esophageal cancer, and preventive control measures should be implemented to raise awareness, screening, and treatment of esophageal cancer in these areas. Tobacco and alcohol control and reduction of occupational hazards are key steps in reducing the burden of esophageal cancer.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Incidence of Male Breast Cancer from 1980 to 2019 in Taiwan and the USA.

Although male breast cancer (MBC) is globally rare, its incidence significantly increased from 1990 to 2017. The aim of this study was to examine variations in the trends of MBC incidence between populations in Taiwan and the USA from 1980 to 2019. The Taiwan Cancer Registry database and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute of the USA were used. The age-standardized incidence rate was calculated using the world standard population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, time period, and birth cohort effect on MBC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of MBC in both countries increased from 2010 to 2019 (Taiwan: average annual percentage change (AAPC) = 2.59%; USA: AAPC = 0.64%). The age and period effects on the incidence rates in both countries strengthened, but the cohort effect was only identified in Taiwan (Rate ratio: 4.03). The identified cohort effect in this study bears resemblance to that noted in a previous investigation on female breast cancer in Taiwan. This suggests the possible presence of common environmental factors influencing breast cancer incidence in both genders, such as a high fat diet and xenoestrogen.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Ischemic Stroke Mortality in China Caused by Specific Risk Factors from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to study the primary risk factors for the long-term trends of mortality rates in ischemic stroke (IS) in China. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database, research was conducted on the 11 primary risk factors for the mortality rates of IS in China from 1990 to 2019. This study employed joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort method to evaluate the trends of mortality rates divided by age, period, and cohort over time. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) caused by a diet high in red meat and high body mass index in China showed an upward trend. ASMR increased first and then decreased due to smoking, diet high in sodium, particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose, and high systolic blood pressure. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), kidney dysfunction, low temperature, and lead exposure remained relatively stable during this period. In the 35-45 age group, the mortality rate of IS due to high LDL-C was up to about 60%, and smoking affected men more than women. Overall, high LDL-C, high systolic blood pressure, and particulate matter pollution were the most common risk factors in patients with IS. The risk of death rose with age. The period and cohort relative risks showed that metabolic risk factors had the greatest impact on the mortality of IS. CONCLUSION: Metabolic risk factors have become the primary risk factors for the ASMR of IS in China. Relevant authorities should pay attention to their long-term effects on IS. Effective public health policies and interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of IS.

The growing cancer burden: Age-period-cohort projections in Aotearoa New Zealand 2020-2044.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand. METHODS: Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity. RESULTS: Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.

Mortality burden and future projections of major risk factors for esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years. METHODS: We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC. CONCLUSION: The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.

Planning, implementing, and evaluating Hepatitis C virus elimination via collaborative community-based care cascade: age-period-cohort model for estimating demand from antecedent anti-HCV survey.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the demand for HCV care cascade plays an important role in planning, monitoring, and assessing the performance of introducing a new community-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program but such an analytic and systematic approach has been barley addressed. METHODS: A new collaborative care program for HCV elimination in the Changhua Community of Taiwan has been offered to a total of 895,353 residents since 2018. To grasp the variation of demand for HCV care cascade across demographic and geographic features in the planning stage, we applied the age-period-cohort spatial model to the antecedent anti-HCV survey enrolling 123,617 participants aged 30 years or older between 2005 and 2018. Based on this precise denominator, we then employed a "before-and-after" study design to routinely evaluate whether the WHO criteria of 90% RNA positive diagnosis and 80% successful treatments could be reached. RESULTS: The overall demand for HCV care cascade was 4.28% (HCV infection) of the underlying population but a declining trend was noted. The early cohort had a higher demand, whereas the demand of the young cohort decreased with each passing year. The demand also differed by township. The demand, allowing for these variations, for antiviral treatment was 22,362, yielding the WHO target of 12,880 for achieving HCV elimination. With 11,844 successful treatments, the effectiveness of elimination has already reached 92% (11,844/12,880) by the end of 2022. CONCLUSIONS: The demand for HCV care cascade allows health care decision-makers to timely and properly assess the performance of a novel community-based collaborative care program in achieving HCV elimination.

Time trends in the burden of autoimmune diseases across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the long-term trend of prevalence and DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) rate on the age, period and cohort (APC) of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) country for autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and psoriasis). METHODS: The data are sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and it uses the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the time trends of autoimmune diseases from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, it employs the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: For 1990 to 2019, the ASPR (age-standardised prevalence rate) of IBD increased significantly for China and South Africa, and decreased significantly for Brazil, India, Russian. The Russian ASPR of MS demonstrated a significantly decreasing trend (average annual percent change=-0.5%, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.5), with the most increased occurring in Brazil at 2009-2014. The cohort effect on DALY rates for Psoriasis displayed an ongoing decreasing trend from the 1929-1933 birth cohort to the 1999-2003 birth cohort. Specifically, the five countries relative risk values (RRs) of DALYs due to RA increased significantly by 7.98, 16.07, 5.98, 3.19, 9.13 times, from 20 to 24 age group to 65 to 69 age group. CONCLUSIONS: The population of the BRICS countries accounts for more than 40% of the global population. And we found that the age effect of various autoimmune diseases is heavily influenced by population ageing.

The burden of epilepsy in the People's Republic of China from 1990 to 2019: epidemiological trends and comparison with the global burden of epilepsy.

Background: Epilepsy is associated with a significant global burden of disease, affecting over 50 million people worldwide. The specific aim of this study is to compare the burden of epilepsy in the People's Republic of China (PRC) with the global burden, and to analyze the epidemiological trends of epilepsy, the relationship between the burden of epilepsy and social demographic index (SDI), and the relative contributions of epidemiological factors. Methods: This is a retrospective population-based study, data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. We employed Joinpoint software and the age-period-cohort (APC) model to analyze epilepsy's epidemiological trends. Health inequality analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of SDI on epilepsy burden. Decomposition analysis was performed to examine the relative contributions of age, population, and epidemiological changes to epilepsy. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence rate in the PRC increased by 45%, significantly surpassing the global incidence of epilepsy. However, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) decreased notably, and the proportion of Years of Life Lost (YLL) decreased from 62.73 to 39.03%. Concerning incidence, the period Rate Ratio (RR) in the PRC initially increased and then decreased, while the cohort RR in the PRC and globally exhibited a consistent upward trend. In terms of mortality, period RR and cohort RR in the PRC displayed a gradual decrease, with mortality starting higher but eventually falling below the global mortality. The net drifts of incidence were greater than 0, whereas the net drifts of mortality were less than 0, both were lower in the PRC than at the global level. Decomposition analysis indicated that the changes of incidence and mortality in the PRC were mainly attributed to epidemiological changes. Additionally, global disparities in epilepsy decreased, with the burden concentrating in low SDI countries. Conclusion: The incidence of epilepsy in the PRC rose during the 30-year study period, while epilepsy mortality decreased. The improved survival rate in the PRC is predominantly attributable to epidemiological changes. The burden of epilepsy in the PRC predominantly affects males, children, and the elderly, Chinese government should focus on specific populations.