Polarization of Attitudes as a Function of Mortality Salience: A Meta-Cognitive Analysis / Polarización de las Actitudes Como Resultado de Hacer Saliente la Mortalidad: un Análisis Meta-Cognitivo

Background: The present study analyzes how attitudes can polarize afterreminders of death in the context of persuasion, and proposes that a meta-cognitive process (i.e., self-validation) can serve as a compensatory copingmechanism to deal with mortality salience. Method: Participants were firstasked to read either a strong or a weak resume of a job applicant. Next,they listed their initial thoughts about that applicant. Then, they were askedto think about of their own death (i.e., mortality salience condition) versusbeing asked to think about of being cold (i.e., control condition). Finally,participants reported the confidence in their thoughts, as well as theirattitudes towards the applicant. Results: Participants who were assigned tothe mortality salience (vs. control) condition showed greater impact of theirpreviously generated thoughts on their subsequent attitudes. Additionally,as hypothesized, this effect of attitude polarization was mediated by changesin thought confidence. Conclusions: Attitudes unrelated to mortality canbe polarized by reminders of death and this effect can operate through ameta-cognitive process of thought validation. Implications for persuasion,self-validation, and beyond are discussed.

Antecedentes: la presenteinvestigación analiza cómo las actitudes se polarizan como resultado dehacer saliente la mortalidad en el contexto de la persuasión y propone queun proceso meta-cognitivo (i.e., la auto-validación) puede servir comoun mecanismo compensatorio de afrontamiento ante la idea de la muerte.Método: los participantes fueron asignados aleatoriamente a leer uncurrículum que incluía información muy convincente o información pococonvincente sobre un candidato a un puesto de trabajo. A continuación, escribieron los pensamientos que tuvieron sobre el candidato. Después, realizaron una tarea que implicó pensar en la idea de su propia muerte (i.e.,condición de mortalidad) o pensar en la idea de tener frío (i.e., condiciónde control). Finalmente, los participantes informaron de la confianza que tuvieron en sus pensamientos, así como de las actitudes que se formaron hacia el candidato. Resultados: los participantes de la condición demortalidad (vs. control) mostraron un mayor impacto de sus pensamientosiniciales sobre sus actitudes. Además, este efecto de polarización fuemediado por la confianza en los pensamientos. Conclusiones: las actitudesno relacionadas con la mortalidad pueden polarizarse al hacer salientela mortalidad y este efecto puede ocurrir a través de un proceso meta-cognitivo de validación del pensamiento.

The triple-filter bubble: Using agent-based modelling to test a meta-theoretical framework for the emergence of filter bubbles and echo chambers.

Filter bubbles and echo chambers have both been linked recently by commentators to rapid societal changes such as Brexit and the polarization of the US American society in the course of Donald Trump's election campaign. We hypothesize that information filtering processes take place on the individual, the social, and the technological levels (triple-filter-bubble framework). We constructed an agent-based modelling (ABM) and analysed twelve different information filtering scenarios to answer the question under which circumstances social media and recommender algorithms contribute to fragmentation of modern society into distinct echo chambers. Simulations show that, even without any social or technological filters, echo chambers emerge as a consequence of cognitive mechanisms, such as confirmation bias, under conditions of central information propagation through channels reaching a large part of the population. When social and technological filtering mechanisms are added to the model, polarization of society into even more distinct and less interconnected echo chambers is observed. Merits and limits of the theoretical framework, and more generally of studying complex social phenomena using ABM, are discussed. Directions for future research such as ways of comparing our simulations with actual empirical data and possible measures against societal fragmentation on the three different levels are suggested.

Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization.

People often express political opinions in starkly dichotomous terms, such as "Trump will either trigger a ruinous trade war or save U.S. factory workers from disaster." This mode of communication promotes polarization into ideological in-groups and out-groups. We explore the power of an emerging methodology, forecasting tournaments, to encourage clashing factions to do something odd: to translate their beliefs into nuanced probability judgments and track accuracy over time and questions. In theory, tournaments advance the goals of "deliberative democracy" by incentivizing people to be flexible belief updaters whose views converge in response to facts, thus depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates. We examine the hypothesis that, in the process of thinking critically about their beliefs, tournament participants become more moderate in their own political attitudes and those they attribute to the other side. We view tournaments as belonging to a broader class of psychological inductions that increase epistemic humility and that include asking people to explore alternative perspectives, probing the depth of their cause-effect understanding and holding them accountable to audiences with difficult-to-guess views.

Subduing attitude polarization?

Researchers have sought to understand the effects of like-minded versus contrary news exposure on attitude polarization, which can be a threat to democracy. The online news environment offers opportunities for exposure to both types of news, albeit unequally. This study tests the effects of exposure to heterogeneous partisan news bundles (both like-minded and contrary news) on attitude polarization. Because media exposure can lead to bias, attitude polarization is tested as a direct and indirect effect via hostile media perceptions. Data in this study are from a between-subjects experimental design about the issue of assisted suicide. Results indicate that even though the effect of the partisan news bundle on hostile media perceptions is significant, both direct and indirect effects on attitude polarization are null.