NLR48 is Better Than CRP, and mCTSI, and Similar to BISAP and SOFA Scores for Mortality Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis: A Comparison of 6 Scores.

Introduction: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been suggested as a reliable marker for predicting inflammation progression and severity of acute pancreatitis, although the role of the NLR stratified by etiology is still insufficiently studied. However, the NLR's role in mortality prediction was poorly evaluated in the literature. Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional study to analyze the role of NLR0 (at admission) and NLR48 (at 48 hours) in acute pancreatitis as compared with CRP, BISAP, SOFA, and modified CTSI (mCTSI) for the prediction of mortality and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in patients admitted into the Emergency Clinical County Hospital of Craiova during 48 months. The primary assessed outcomes were the rate of in-hospital mortality, the rate of persistent organ failure, and ICU admissions. We analyzed mortality prediction for all acute pancreatitis, for biliary, alcoholic, and hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis, for severe forms, and for patients admitted to the ICU. Results: A total of 725 patients were selected; 42.4% had biliary acute pancreatitis, 27.7% had alcoholic acute pancreatitis, and 8.7% had hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis. A total of 13.6% had POF during admission. The AUC for NLR48 in predicting mortality risk and SAP was 0.81 and 0.785, superior to NLR0, CRP48, and mCTSI but inferior to BISAP and SOFA scores. The NLR48/NLR0 ratio did not add significantly to the accuracy. NLR0 and NLR48 performed poorly for mortality prediction in severe forms and in patients admitted to the ICU. NLR48 has good accuracy in our study for predicting death risk in biliary and alcoholic acute pancreatitis but not in hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis. Conclusion: NLR48 was a good indicator in predicting mortality risk and severe forms in all patients with acute pancreatitis, but not of death in SAP and in patients admitted to ICU, with good accuracy for predicting death risk in biliary and alcoholic acute pancreatitis but not in hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis.

Establishment of a modified BISAP scoring system and its clinical significance in the early diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of severe acute pancreatitis / 临床肝胆病杂志

ObjectiveTo establish a modified BISAP scoring system， and to investigate the value of the BISAP scoring system versus the modified BISAP scoring system in assessing the severity and condition of acute pancreatitis （AP）. MethodsFor the establishment of the new scoring system， a retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 1 033 patients with AP who were admitted to Third Xiangya hospital of central South University from January 2019 to December 2021， and according to the revised Atlanta classification， they were divided into mild acute pancreatitis （MAP） group with 827 patients and severe acute pancreatitis （SAP） group with 206 patients. The two groups were compared in terms of clinical features， laboratory markers， and imaging data. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed for the statistically significant indicators to screen for the independent risk factors for SAP. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was used to obtain the optimal cut－off value corresponding to the maximum Youden index for each independent risk factor， and a score of 0 or 1 was assigned depending on different situations， which was integrated into the BISAP scoring system to establish a modified BISAP scoring system. For the validation of the new scoring system， a retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 473 patients with AP who were admitted to Third Xiangya hospital of central South University from January 2017 to December 2018. BISAP score and modified BISAP score were determined for each patient， and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） was used to compare the value of the two scoring systems in predicting the severity and prognosis of AP. The chi－square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups， and the independent－samples t test and the Mann－Whitney U test were used for comparison of continuous data between two groups. ResultsFor the establishment of the new scoring system， there were significant differences between the MAP group and the SAP group in mode of admission， length of hospital stay， ICU admission rate， number of deaths， underlying diseases， and incidence rate of complications （all P<0.05）. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that body temperature， neutrophil－to－lymphocyte ratio （NLR）， C－reactive protein （CRP）， albumin， triglycerides， D－dimer， fibrinogen， and MCTSI score were independent risk factors for SAP （all P<0.05）. The ROC curve analysis showed that CRP （AUC=0.921）， NLR （AUC=0.798）， D－dimer （AUC=0.768）， and MCTSI score （AUC=0.931） had a good predictive value for SAP， and the combination of these four indicators had an AUC of 0.976 and showed a significantly higher diagnostic efficiency than each indicator alone or the combination of two or three indicators （all P<0.05）. For the validation of the new scoring system， a total of 473 patients were enrolled， with 408 in the MAP group and 65 in the SAP group， and there were significant differences between the two groups in mode of admission， length of hospital stay， ICU admission rate， number of deaths， and incidence rate of complications （all P<0.05）. The modified BISAP score was better than the BISAP score in predicting SAP （AUC： 0.972 vs 0.887， P<0.05）， with an optimal cut－off value of >3 points. The modified BISAP score also had a relatively high value in predicting the mortality of AP patients （AUC=0.910）， but there was no significant difference between the modified BISAP score and the BISAP scoring system （AUC： 0.910 vs 0.896， P=0.707）. ConclusionThe modified BISAP score is better than the BISAP score in predicting the severity of AP and has a relatively high value in predicting the mortality of AP patients， giving a more accurate， objective， and early assessment of the condition of AP patients.

Predicting the Success of Catheter Drainage in Infected Necrotising Pancreatitis: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

Background Management of acute necrotising pancreatitis is often challenging for clinicians. Secondary infection of the necrotic collections leads to sepsis and warrants intervention. Minimally invasive techniques like catheter drainage have recently been proposed over more risky and morbid traditional open procedures. Factors that can predict successful catheter drainage of the necrotic pancreatic collection are still unclear and not well established. Materials and methods This study is designed as a retrospective cross-sectional observational study to investigate the association of 21 factors in predicting successful catheter drainage. Data from 30 patients admitted with acute necrotising pancreatitis treated with catheter drainage were collected and analysed. Twenty-one factors, including demographic variables, disease severity factors, drainage criteria, and morphological criteria on imaging, were studied for their predictive association with successful outcomes. Univariate analysis was done for each variable against the outcome. The study was conducted between December 2012 to March 2017. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Patients with no organ involvement responded better to primary catheter drainage. Patients with BMI>25 and multi-organ failure were poor candidates for primary catheter drainage. Clinically unwell patients with a Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score of ≥4 had a negative outcome on catheter drainage and usually ended up in a surgical procedure or eventually succumbed to the disease. Other variables included in our study did not statistically associate with the success or failure of percutaneous catheter drainage. Conclusion BMI >25, multiple organ failure, and BISAP score ≥ 4 are independent negative predictors for the success of catheter drainage in infected necrotising pancreatitis. No organ failure showed a positive predictor for successful catheter drainage. Further studies are required to explore these predictive factors in a larger sample size to predict the success of catheter drainage in infected pancreatic necrosis.

Acute Kidney Injury Complicating Severe Acute Pancreatitis: Clinical Profile and Factors Predicting Mortality.

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) frequently complicates severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) among the critically ill. We studied clinical profile and risk factors predicting mortality in SAP-AKI. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study of 68 patients with SAP-AKI from September 2015 to September 2019. Patient data and outcomes grouped as survivors and deceased were analyzed. Results: SAP-AKI constituted 2.14% (68 of 3,169) of all AKIs with 1.5%, 20.6%, and 77.9% in Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Stages I, II and III respectively. The mean age was 39.93 ± 11.79 years with males 65 (95.6%). The causes of acute pancreatitis were alcohol addiction 59 (86.8%), highly active antiretroviral therapy 1 (1.4%), hypercalcemia 1 (1.4%), IgG4-related disease 1 (1.4%), and unidentified 6 (8.8%). Complications were volume overload, shock, respiratory failure, and necrotizing pancreatitis in 21 (30.9%), 10 (14.7%), 6 (8.8%), and 14 (20.5%), respectively. Kidney replacement therapy done in 40 (58%), with intermittent hemodialysis 36 (53%) and acute intermittent peritoneal dialysis 4 (6%). The overall mortality was 23 (33.8%), three progressed to chronic kidney disease (thrombotic microangiopathy 2; biopsy inconclusive 1). In 45 survivors, AKI recovered in 22.7 ± 9.6 days. Death occurred within first 6 days. The risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality was necrotizing pancreatitis (odds ratio [OR] = 5.143; 95% confidence interval 1.472-17.972; P = 0.01), circulatory failure (OR = 6.125; P = 0.016), peak creatinine >3 mg/dL (OR = 7.118; P = 0.068), Bedside Index of Severity for Acute Pancreatitis score >3 (OR = 8.472; P = 0.001), need for kidney replacement therapy (OR = 3.764; P = 0.024), KDIGO III (OR = 9.935; P = 0.03). Conclusions: Alcohol addiction was the commonest cause of severe acute pancreatitis. The overall mortality was 33.8%. Necrotizing pancreatitis, circulatory failure, peak creatinine >3 mg/dL, BISAPs >3, KDIGO III, and the need for kidney replacement therapy were independent risk factors for mortality.

Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

Aim: To investigate the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) to serum albumin (ALB) ratio in the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP), and compare the predictive value of the CRP/ALB ratio with the Ranson score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score. Methods: This cohort study retrospectively analyzed clinical data of AP patients from August 2018 to August 2020 in our hospital. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the effects of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score on severe AP (SAP), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and death. The predictive values of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score were examined with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. DeLong test was used to compare the AUCs between CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score. Results: Totally, 284 patients were included in this study, of which 35 AP patients (12.32%) developed SAP, 29 (10.21%) organ failure, 30 (10.56%) pancreatic necrosis and 11 (3.87%) died. The result revealed that CRP/ALB ratio on day 2 was associated with SAP [odds ratio (OR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 2.29], death (OR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.24 to 2.41), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.08 to 1.50), and organ failure (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.18 to 1.73) in AP patients. Similarly, CRP/ALB on day 3 was related to a higher risk of SAP (OR: 1.50, 95%CI: 1.24 to 1.81), death (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.34 to 2.65), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.42), and organ failure (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.41). The predictive value of CRP/ALB ratio for pancreatic necrosis was lower than that of MCTSI, for organ failure was lower than that of Ranson and BISAP, and for death was higher than that of MCTSI. Conclusion: The CRP/ALB ratio may be a novel but promising, easily measurable, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score that can be used to predict SAP, death, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure in AP patients, which can be a supplement of Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP scores.

The value of red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio and C-reactive protein to albumin ratio combined with BISAP scores in the assessment of acute pancreatitis / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To explore the value of red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio (RPR), C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR) combined with bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).Methods:The AP patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from January to December 2020 were respectively collected. According to the severity of the disease, the patients were divided into the mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) group, moderate severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) group, and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) group. The general information and laboratory indicators of the patients were collected and scored according to the BISAP scoring standard. Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation of RPR, CAR and BISAP score in three groups of patients and their correlation with AP severity. Model 1 [MAP group and non-MAP group (MSAP group + SAP group)] and model 2 [non-SAP group (MAP group + MSAP group) and SAP group] were constructed. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to analyze the independent factors of the non-MAP group and SAP group. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) to analyze the value of RPR, CAR, and BISAP score alone and in combination to judge the severity of AP patients.Results:A total of 197 AP patients who met the criteria were included, including 102 MAP patients, 56 MSAP patients, and 39 SAP patients. There were significant differences in RPR, CAR and BISAP score among patients with different AP severity ( P<0.001). RPR, CAR and BISAP score were positively correlated, and all three were positively correlated with AP severity ( r=0.435, 0.490, 0.628, P<0.001). RPR and CAR were independent factors for the severity of AP, and the combination of RPR, CAR and BISAP score was better than a single indicator in judging the severity of AP patients. The AUC of the three combined in Model 1 and Model 2 were 0.868 and 0.889, respectively. Conclusions:RPR, CAR combined with BISAP score has a good application value in the evaluation of AP, and is suitable for clinical promotion.

Bedside index (BISAP) v/s Ranson scores in predicting mortality and severity in patients with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis in comparison with Ranson scores in predicting mortalities and severities in patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from July 1, 2017, to January 1, 2018, and comprised patients who presented with acute pancreatitis. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis score was applied in the emergency department and the patients were followed up in ward/intensive care unit where Ranson scores were calculated within the following 48 hours. Both the scores were calculated and compared for the prediction of severity and mortality for each patient. Data was analysed using SPSS 20. RESULTS: Of the 136 patients, 88(64.7%) were males and 48(35.3%) were females. The overall mean age was 42.04±16.42 years (16-75 years), On the basis of two scores, mild and moderate acute pancreatitis was diagnosed in 123(90.4%) and 119(87.5%) patients respectively, while severe condition was diagnosed in 13(9.6%) and 17(12.5%) patients respectively. The bedside index had specificity 94.62% compared to 91.54% for Ranson score; sensitivity 100% vs 100%; negative predictive value 100% vs 100%; positive predictive value 46.15% vs 35.29%; and diagnostic accuracy 94.85% vs 91.91%. CONCLUSIONS: The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis and Ranson score were both found to be reliable tools in predicting mortalities and severities in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Complete hemogram: simple and cost-effective in staging and predicting outcome in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: An important goal in management of acute pancreatitis (AP) is early prediction and recognition of disease severity. Various predictive scoring systems are in clinical use with their own limitations and there is always a quest for simple, practical, quantifiable, dynamic and readily available markers for predicting disease severity and outcome. Complete hemogram is routinely ordered in all patients with AP. In recent years red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have been found to be independent predictors of prognosis in various benign and malignant conditions. This prospective study evaluated complete hemogram based markers in AP. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Complete hemogram analysis was done and NLR, LMR, PLR values were calculated. Development of organ failure, the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and interventions, development of complications (local/systemic) and 100-day mortality were assessed. RESULTS: In this study 160 subjects of AP were included. Complete hemogram analysis was performed within 24 h after admission. C­reactive protein, RDW, NLR, PLR and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) values were higher in severe AP than moderate AP group than mild AP group, while LMR values were decreased in the corresponding severe, moderate and mild AP groups (p < 0.001). The NLR performed best for prediction of ICU admission, organ failure, interventions and mortality with area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) were 0.943, 0.940, 0.902 and 0.910, respectively. CONCLUSION: Hemogram based markers are simple, objective, dynamic and readily available. They can be considered in addition to conventional multifactorial scoring systems for prediction of outcome and prognosis of AP.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Observational Study.

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas mostly due to alcohol or gallstones. Various scoring systems were involved in identifying the severity of the disease. The standard single score to identifying the severity remains uncertain. Methodology This prospective observational study was carried out for two years in a tertiary care center from South India. The diagnosis of AP was made based on Atlanta criteria, and a total of 164 patients were included. All patients were assessed by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation ll (APACHE II), bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP), modified Glasgow score (MGS), and Ranson score on admission and 48 hours after admission scores. Procalcitonin was done in all patients with AP. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) of the abdomen was done in 69 patients who had features of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each score, and procalcitonin for CT documented severe patients and organ failure patients together. Results A total of 164 patients were included in this study. CT abdomen showed a modified CT severity index (MCSI) ≥8 in all 69 (100%) patients. APACHE II score could predict SAP based on CT findings in 44 patients (63.76%), BISAP score in 22 patients (31.88%), MGS in 55 patients (79.71%), Ranson score at admission in 31 patients (44.92%), Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 44 patients (63.76%), and procalcitonin on admission in 69 patients (100%) when cut-off used as per the literature. APACHE II score could predict SAP in cases of AP (n=164) in 52 patients (50%), BISAP score in 27 patients (26%), MGS in 79 patients (76%), Ranson score at admission in 34 patients (33%), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission in 61 (59%) patients when cut-off was used as per the literature. This study demonstrated that Ranson score on admission had a good area under the curve (AUC). AUC (0.8483), APACHE II (AUC 0.7708), and Ranson score 48 hours after admission (AUC 0.8167) had a fair accuracy. BISAP (AUC 0.6399) and MGS (AUC 0.6486) had poor accuracy for the prediction of severity in AP based on receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Conclusion Among the scoring system compared, MGS had the highest sensitivity for predicting the severity of AP. However, Ranson score on admission had better diagnostic accuracy for predicting severity, organ failure, and mortality based on ROC curves. Procalcitonin had the best sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and diagnostic accuracy for association with severity in AP.

A comparison of the BISAP score and Amylase and BMI (CAB) score versus for predicting severe acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP)would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of the Change in Amylase And Body mass index (CAB) score and BISAP score for predicting SAP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 406 with AP were enrolled. The age, gender, body mass index(BMI), blood urea nitrogen determined at the time of admission and serum amylase determined on day 1 and day 2 after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: Multivariable analysis confirmed that blood urea nitrogen (OR 1.06; 95%CI 1.03-1.09) and percentage change in amylase day 2 (OR 0.75; 95%CI 0.65-0.87) were independently associated with development of SAP. No statistically significant association was observed between BMI (OR 1.04; 95%CI 0.951.13) and severity of acute pancreatitis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Body mass index (BMI), percentage change in amylase day 2, BISAP score and CAB score were 0.57±0.05, 0.68±0.04, 0.84±0.03 and0.53±0.05, respectively. CONCLUSION: BISAP is more accurate for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis than the CAB score.

Accuracy of BISAP score in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of BISAP score in comparison with Ranson's score in detection of severe acute pancreatitis. METHODS: This cross sectional study was performed in Emergency department and Surgery department of Dow university hospital from January 2015 to December 2015. A total of 206 patients were included. Those diagnosed with acute pancreatitis on the basis of epigastric pain, serum amylase levels more than 300 (more than 3 times normal) and meeting the inclusion criteria were subjected to investigations for Ranson's and BISAP scoring. BISAP score was calculated at 24 hours and Ranson's score both at 24 and 48 hours. A score of > 3 was used to label severe acute pancreatitis according to both scoring systems. RESULTS: In our study accuracy to predict SAP by BISAP score was 76.2 % and Ranson's score was 82.2%. On the basis of sensitivity, Ranson's scores predicted SAP more accurately than BISAP scores (97.4% vs. 69.2%). Regarding specificity, both scores predicted SAP almost equally (78.4% vs. 77.8%). CONCLUSION: BISAP score is a valuable tool in predicting severe Acute Pancreatitis in early hours.

Urinary trypsinogen-2 level and local complications of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Local complications of acute pancreatitis (AP) carry risks of morbidity/mortality. This study aimed to assess whether urinary trypsinogen-2 levels and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score on admission predicted subsequent local complications. METHODS: One hundred and forty-four consecutive patients with AP were prospectively followed till 6 months after discharge. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were measured within 24 h of admission. Local complications (acute peripancreatic fluid collection, acute necrotic collection, pseudocyst, and walled-off necrosis) were diagnosed by abdominal computed tomography. Cut-off for trypsinogen-2 level was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, and predictors of local complications were analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Thirty-seven (25.7%) patients developed local complications. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were significantly higher in patients with local complications compared with those without local complications (median [interquartile range], 3210 [620-9764.4] µg/L vs 627.3 [72.3-5895] µg/L, P = 0.006). Urinary trypsinogen-2 significantly outperformed BISAP score in predicting local complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.65 [95% CI: 0.55-0.75] vs 0.48 [95% CI: 0.38-0.58], P = 0.005). At the optimal cut-off of 500 µg/L, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of trypsinogen-2 level were 78.4%, 45.8%, 33.3%, and 86.0%, respectively. Urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 µg/L was an independent predictor of local complications (adjusted odds ratio, 3.72; 95% CI: 1.42-9.76; P = 0.007). By contrast, BISAP score ≥ 3 and pleural effusion predicted organ failure but not local complications. CONCLUSION: In a prospective cohort, urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 µg/L independently predicted local complications of AP.

A New Marker to Determine Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: PLR and NLR Combination.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the prognostic importance of platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutro - phil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) combination for patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and its relationship with mortality. METHODS: This retrospective study was included 142 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Ranson, Atlanta and BISAP 0h, 24h and 48h scores of the patients were calculated by examining their patient files. The patients were divided into three groups as low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients according to their PLR and NLR levels. RESULTS: The number of patients with acute pancreatitis complications such as necrotizing pancreatitis, acute renal failure, sepsis and cholangitis was significantly higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. Mortality rate was found to be 90% in the high-risk group, 16% in the medium-risk group, and 1.9% in the low-risk group. The number of patients with a Ranson score of 5 and 6, a severe Atlanta score, a BISAP 0h score of 3 and 4, a BISAP 24h and 48h score of 4 and 5 was higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. PLR-NLR combination, Atlanta and Ranson scores, and C-reactive protein level were determined to be independent risk factors predicting mortality in stepwise regression model. PLR-NLR combination had the highest area under curve value in terms of predicting acute claspancreatitis prognosis and had a similar diagnostic discrimination with other scoring systems. CONCLUSION: In our study it was found that PLR-NLR combination had a similar prognostic importance with other scoring systems used to determine acute pancreatitis prognosis.

Índice clínico de gravedad en pancreatitis aguda como predictor de mortalidad en pancreatitis aguda en el servicio de urgencias / Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis as a predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis in the Emergency Service

Resumen Objetivo: Determinar el BISAP como predictor de mortalidad en pancreatitis aguda en el servicio de urgencias. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de cohorte en pacientes con pancreatitis aguda atendidos en urgencias; se formaron dos grupos de acuerdo con el puntaje de BISAP, bajo riesgo (0-2) y alto riesgo (3-5). El tamaño de la muestra para cada grupo fue de 23,76; sin embargo; se trabajó con 111 pacientes de bajo riesgo y 23 de alto riesgo. La técnica muestral fue no aleatoria por cuota. La mortalidad se midió a las 24 h y a los 7 días. El análisis estadístico incluyó regresión logística y cálculo de la probabilidad. Resultados: Cuando el puntaje BISAP es de alto riesgo, la probabilidad de morir a las 24 h es del 22,7%, y del 76,5% a los 7 días (Chi2 = 13,91; p = 0,002). Discusión y conclusión: El score BISAP permite predecir la probabilidad de morir a las 24 h y a los 7 días.

Abstract Objective: To determine BISAP as a predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis in the Emergency Service. Materials and methods: A cohort study in acute pancreatitis in emergency service, two groups were formed according to BISAP score, low risk (0-2) and high risk (3-5). The total sample for each group was 23.76, nevertheless it was worked with 111 patients of low risk and 23 of high risk. The sampling technique was non-randomized by quota. Mortality was measured at 24 h and at 7 days. Statistical analysis included logistic regression and probability calculation. Results: When the BISAP score is high risk the probability of dying at 24 h is 22.7% and 76.5% at 7 days (Chi2 = 13.91, P=.002). Discussion and conclusion: The BISAP score allows predicting the probability of dying at 24 h and at 7 days.

Role of early contrast enhanced CT scan in severity prediction of acute pancreatitis.

Severe pancreatitis occurs in approximately 15-25% of patients with acute pancreatitis. The objective of our study was to compare the CT Severity Index (CTSI) with a clinical score (BISAP score) to predict severity of acute pancreatitis. Forty-eight consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast enhanced CT scan within 72 hours of presentation were included. Results of our study showed that both CTSI and BISAP score were reliable predictors of mortality (p value = 0.019 and <0.001 respectively) and need for mechanical ventilation (p value = .002 and .006 respectively). Positive predictive value of CTSI to predict recovery without intervention was 91.4% as compared to 78% for that of BISAP score. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves showed CT scan was superior to BISAP Score in predicting need of percutaneous or surgical intervention. Early CT scan may be utilized for prediction of clinical course of patients with acute pancreatitis.

Predictors and outcomes of acute pancreatitis in critically ill patients presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary referral centre in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a current review of the clinical characteristics, predictors and outcomes in critically ill patients presenting to the ED with acute pancreatitis and subsequently admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral centre in Australia. METHODS: A retrospective single-centre study of adult patients admitted with pancreatitis. Severe acute pancreatitis defined by Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score ≥2. RESULTS: Eighty-seven patients fulfilled criteria for inclusion during the study period, representing 0.9% of all ICU admissions. The median age of patients was 54. Survival was independent of patients' age, sex, aetiology and comorbidities. Mortality was 30.8% for both inpatient referrals to the ICU and for direct referrals via the ED. Higher mortality was identified among patients requiring mechanical ventilation (74.2 vs 24.6% in survivors; P < 0.0001), vasopressor support (85.7 vs 33.8% in survivors; P < 0.0001) or renal replacement therapy (60 vs 16.9% in survivors; P < 0.002). BISAP score surpasses Ranson's and Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II scores in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors among unselected patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to ICU, whereas APACHE II discriminates better in the cohort admitted from ED. CONCLUSION: Severe acute pancreatitis is associated with high mortality. Aetiology and comorbidity did not predict adverse outcomes in this population. BISAP score is non-inferior to APACHE II score as a prognostic tool in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis and could be used to triage admission. Evidence of persistent organ dysfunction and requirements for organ support reliably identify patients at high-risk of death.

Acute Pancreatitis: What's the Score?

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common presentation in the emergency department (ED). Severity of pancreatitis is an important consideration for ED clinicians making admission judgments. Validated scoring systems can be a helpful tool in this process. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to give a general outline on the subject of AP and compare different criteria used to predict severity of disease for use in the ED. DISCUSSION: This review updates the classifications and scoring systems for AP and the relevant parameters of each. This article assesses past and current scoring systems for AP, including Ranson criteria, Glasgow criteria, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), computed tomography imaging scoring systems, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, Panc 3, Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS), and the Japanese Severity Score. This article also describes the potential use of single variable predictors. Finally, this article discusses risk factors for early readmission, an outcome pertinent to emergency physicians. These parameters may be used to risk-stratify patients presenting to the ED into mild, moderate, and severe pancreatitis for determination of appropriate disposition. CONCLUSION: Rapid, reliable, and validated means of predicting patient outcome from rapid clinical assessment are of value to the emergency physician. Scoring systems such as BISAP, HAPS, and single-variable predictors may assist in decision-making due to their simplicity of use and applicability within the first 24 h.

BISAP and APACHEⅡ scores in predicting the severity and organ failure of patients with acute pancreatitis / 中华胰腺病杂志

Objective To evaluate the clinical value of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and APACHEⅡ score in predicting the severity and organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP).Methods One hundred eighty-five patients of AP admitted to Department of Gastroenterology of First affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2012 to December 2014 were studied retrospectively.According to BISAP score, patients who were ≥3 points were considered as high risk group, while ＜3 points were considered as low risk group.According to APACHEⅡ score, patients who were ≥ 8 points were considered as high risk group, while ＜ 8 points were considered as low risk group.According to the criteria of Pancreatic Diseases Group of Chinese Society of Gastroenterology of Chinese Medical Association, the patients were diagnosed as mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).The BISAP, APACHEⅡ scores were calculated and compared between MAP group and MSAP + SAP group, respectively.The incidence of MSAP + SAP between high risk group and low risk group was also compared.The area of ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the ability of BISAP and APACHEⅡ scoring system for predicting the severity of AP and the multiple organ dysfunction syndromes (MODS).Results Among 185 patients, MAP was identified in 101 patients, MSAP in 76 patients and SAP in 8 patients.Twenty-five MSAP patients developed organ dysfunction, and all the 8 SAP patients developed organ dysfunction.The BISAP scores of MSAP + SAP group and MAP group were (1.43 ± 0.89), (0.38 ± 0.61),andAPACHⅡ scores were (2.45± 1.36), (0.87± 0.62), the scores of MSAP+ SAP group were significantly higher than those in MAP group (P ＜0.01).In the 137 patients of low risk BISAP group, there were 47 MSAP + SAP patients (34.3％), while in the 48 patients of high risk BISAP group, there were 37 MSAP + SAP patients (77.0％);in the 153 patients of low risk APACHEⅡ group, there were 56 MSAP + SAP patients (36.6％), while in the 32 patients of high risk APACHEⅡ group, there were 28 MSAP + SAP patients (87.5％);the incidence of MSAP + SAP patients was significantly higher in high risk group than that in low risk group (P＜0.01).The AUC of BISAP, APACHEⅡ for MSAP+ MAP was 0.804 (95％ CI 0.738 ～ 0.870), 0.794 (95％ CI 0.725 ～ 0.863), and the AUC for organ dysfunction was 0.758 (95％ CI 0.686 ～0.830), 0.781 (95％ CI 0.710 ～0.852) , and the difference between BISAP and APACHE Ⅱ was not statistically significant (P ＞ 0.05).Conclusions The BISAP has the prediction ability for AP severity and prognosis similar to APACHEⅡ , and it consists of only 5 parameters and can be completed in the first 24 h of admission, therefore it is worth of clinical application.

Clinic significance of four clinical scoring systems in evaluating prognosis of acute pancreatitis / 天津医药

Objective To compare the clinic significance of four clinical scoring systems in evaluating prognosis of acute pancreatitis: bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHEⅡ), Ranson’s scoring system, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) in AP. Methods Patients visited our clinic with AP (n=114) in recent 2 years were retrospectively analyzed. BISAP and APACHEⅡscores were obtained at 24 hours after admission; Ranson ’s score was obtained at 48 hours after admission and CTSI are obtained was obtained at 72 hours after admission. Results of four scoring system were compared under different causes and different severity of the dis?ease. Correlation between BISAP score and the other three scores were analyzed and the predicative value of all four scoring systems for severity of AP and death were also compared. Results The mean values of four scoring systems show no signifi?cant difference in AP patients with different etiology (P>0.05). The BISAP score is positively correlated with APACHE-Ⅱ, Ranson ’s score and CTSI score (P<0.01). The four scoring systems all present good predictive value on the severity of AP and death (P<0.01). Conclusion The four scoring systems can all be applied to grading and prognosis for AP of various causes. BISAP is a simple, prompt, economical scoring system in clinical practice.

A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective.

INTRODUCTION: A simple and easily applicable system for stratifying patients with acute pancreatitis is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the ability of BISAP score to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis patients from our institution and to predict which patients are at risk for development of organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. METHODS: All patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. A Contrast CT was used to differentiate interstitial from necrotizing pancreatitis within seven days of hospitalization whereas Marshall Scoring System was used to characterize organ failure. RESULTS: Among 246 patients M:F = 153:93, most common aetiology among men was alcoholism and among women was gallstone disease. 207 patients had no organ failure and remaining 39 developed organ failure. 17 patients had persistent organ failure, 16 of those with BISAP score ≥3. 13 patients in our study died, out of which 12 patients had BISAP score ≥3. We also found that a BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 76%, a positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for mortality. DISCUSSION: The BISAP score is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in hospital mortality and morbidity.