Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa.

South Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009-2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed.

Chronic wasting disease alters the movement behavior and habitat use of mule deer during clinical stages of infection.

Integrating host movement and pathogen data is a central issue in wildlife disease ecology that will allow for a better understanding of disease transmission. We examined how adult female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) responded behaviorally to infection with chronic wasting disease (CWD). We compared movement and habitat use of CWD-infected deer (n = 18) to those that succumbed to starvation (and were CWD-negative by ELISA and IHC; n = 8) and others in which CWD was not detected (n = 111, including animals that survived the duration of the study) using GPS collar data from two distinct populations collared in central Wyoming, USA during 2018-2022. CWD and predation were the leading causes of mortality during our study (32/91 deaths attributed to CWD and 27/91 deaths attributed to predation). Deer infected with CWD moved slower and used lower elevation areas closer to rivers in the months preceding death compared with uninfected deer that did not succumb to starvation. Although CWD-infected deer and those that died of starvation moved at similar speeds during the final months of life, CWD-infected deer used areas closer to streams with less herbaceous biomass than starved deer. These behavioral differences may allow for the development of predictive models of disease status from movement data, which will be useful to supplement field and laboratory diagnostics or when mortalities cannot be quickly retrieved to assess cause-specific mortality. Furthermore, identifying individuals who are sick before predation events could help to assess the extent to which disease mortality is compensatory with predation. Finally, infected animals began to slow down around 4 months prior to death from CWD. Our approach for detecting the timing of infection-induced shifts in movement behavior may be useful in application to other disease systems to better understand the response of wildlife to infectious disease.

Geographical association of biodiversity with cancer and cardiovascular mortality rates: analysis of 39 distinct conditions.

Background: Biodiversity has been recognized as a positive contributor to human health and wellbeing. Cardiovascular disease and cancer are the two most significant global health burdens, and understanding their relationship with biodiversity forms an essential step toward promoting biodiversity conservation and human health. Methods: The species richness of birds is a common indicator of biodiversity, given their vast numbers, distinctive distribution, and acute sensitivity to environmental disturbances. This ecological study utilized avian observation data derived from the eBird database, human health data from the International Health Metrics and Evaluation, and county-level statistics, including population characteristics, socio-economics, healthcare service, residential environment, and geographic and climatic characteristics in 2014. We aimed to extensively explore the individual associations between biodiversity (i.e., avian species richness) and age-standardized cause-specific mortalities for different types of cancers (29 conditions) and cardiovascular diseases (10 conditions) across the United States (US). Results: Our multiple regression analyses that adjusted for a variety of socio-demographic and geographical factors showed that increased rarefied species richness of birds was associated with reduced mortality rates for three of the five most common cancers, namely, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, breast cancer (in women only), and colon and rectal cancer. For cardiovascular conditions, a similar relationship was observed for ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease-the two most frequent causes of mortality. This study provided extended details regarding the beneficial effects of biodiversity on human health.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and heavy alcohol consumption increase mortality:A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of excessive alcohol consumption on the prognosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) remain unclear. We investigated all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the amount of alcohol consumed by Asian individuals with MAFLD. METHODS: This nationwide retrospective study included 996,508 adults aged 40-79 years who underwent health check-ups between 2009 and 2012. Participants were categorized by the alcohol consumption-non-alcohol, moderate alcohol, and heavy alcohol group (≥ 30 g/day for men, ≥ 20 g/day for women) and by the combination of the presence or absence of MAFLD. Hepatic steatosis was defined as the fatty liver index ≥ 30. Cox analyses were used to analyze the association between alcohol consumption and MAFLD and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: MAFLD significantly increased all-cause, liver-, and cancer-related mortality. Individuals with both MAFLD and heavy alcohol consumption expressed the highest mortality risk in liver-related mortality compared to non-MAFLD and non-alcohol group (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 9.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 8.20-12.29). Regardless of MAFLD, heavy alcohol consumption increased the risk of liver- and cancer-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD and heavy alcohol consumption increased all-cause, liver-, and cancer-related mortality. Heavy alcohol consumption and MAFLD synergistically increase liver-related mortality.

Associations and attributable burden between risk factors and all-cause and cause-specific mortality at different ages in patients with hypertension.

It remains unclear the age-specific associations of risk factors with deaths and mortality burden attributable across age. In a territory-wide retrospective cohort, 1,012,228 adults with hypertension were identified. Comorbidities including diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), heart failure, and cancer, and risk factors including current smoking and suboptimal control of blood pressure (BP), glucose and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were defined. Associations of comorbidities/risk factors with all-cause and cause-specific mortality across age groups (18-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) were assessed. Population attributable fractions were also quantified. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 244,268 (24.1%) patients died, with pneumonia (7.2%), cancer (5.1%), and CVD (4.2%) being the leading causes. Despite increasing deaths with age, relative risk of mortality related to comorbidities/risk factors decreased with age; similar patterns were found for cause-specific mortality. The assessed risk factors accounted for 24.0% (95% CI 22.5%, 25.4%) deaths, with highest proportion in the youngest group (33.5% [28.1%, 38.5%] in 18-54 years vs 19.4% [17.0%, 21.6%] in ≥75 years). For mortality burden, CKD was the overall leading risk factor (12.7% [12.4%, 12.9%]) with higher proportions in older patients (11.1-13.1% in ≥65 years), while diabetes was the leading risk factor in younger patients (15.9-13.5% in 18-54 years). The association of comorbidities or risk factors with mortality is stronger in younger patients with hypertension, despite lower absolute mortality in young patients than in the elderly. Leading risk factors differed across age, highlighting the importance of targeted and precise risk management.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among people with type 2 and type 1 diabetes from 2002 to 2019: a Danish population-based study.

Background: Despite advances in primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, excess mortality persists within the diabetes population. This study explores the components of this excess mortality and their interaction with sex. Methods: Using Danish registries (2002-2019), we identified residents aged 18-99 years, their diabetes status, and recorded causes of death. Applying Lexis-based methods, we computed age-standardized mortality rates (asMRs), mortality relative risks (asMRRs), and log-linear trends for cause-specific mortality. Findings: From 2002 to 2019, 958,278 individuals died in Denmark (T2D: 148,620; T1D: 7830) during 84.4 M person-years. During the study period, overall asMRs declined, driven by reducing cardiovascular mortality, notably in men with T2D. Conversely, cancer mortality remained high, making cancer the leading cause of death in individuals with T2D. Individuals with T2D faced an elevated mortality risk from nearly all cancer types, ranging from 9% to 257% compared to their non-diabetic counterparts. Notably, obesity-related cancers exhibited the highest relative risks: liver cancer (Men: asMRR 3.58 (3.28; 3.91); Women: asMRR 2.49 (2.14; 2.89)), pancreatic cancer (Men: asMRR 3.50 (3.25; 3.77); Women: asMRR 3.57 (3.31; 3.85)), and kidney cancer (Men: asMRR 2.10 (1.84; 2.40); Women: asMRR 2.31 (1.92; 2.79)). In men with type 2 diabetes, excess mortality remained stable, except for dementia. In women, diabetes-related excess mortality increased by 6-17% per decade across all causes of death, except cardiovascular disease. Interpretation: In the last decade, cancer has emerged as the leading cause of death among individuals with T2D in Denmark, emphasizing the need for diabetes management strategies incorporating cancer prevention. A sex-specific approach is crucial to address persistently higher relative mortality in women with diabetes. Funding: Supported by Steno Diabetes Center Aarhus, which is partially funded by an unrestricted donation from the Novo Nordisk Foundation, and by The Danish Diabetes Academy.

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.

Ductal carcinoma in situ and cause-specific mortality among younger and older postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Whether DCIS is associated with higher breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality is unclear with few studies in older women. Therefore, we examined DCIS and breast cancer-specific, cardiovascular (CVD)-specific, and all-cause mortality among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trial participants overall and by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years). METHODS: Of 68,132 WHI participants, included were 781 postmenopausal women with incident DCIS and 781 matched controls. Serial screening mammography was mandated with high adherence. DCIS cases were confirmed by central medical record review. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Kaplan Meier (KM) plots were used to assess 10-year and 20-year mortality rates. RESULTS: After 20.3 years total, and 13.2 years median post-diagnosis follow-up, compared to controls, DCIS was associated with higher breast cancer-specific mortality (HR 3.29; CI = 1.32-8.22, P = 0.01). The absolute difference in 20-year breast cancer mortality was 1.2% without DCIS and 3.4% after DCIS, log-rank P = 0.026. Findings were similar by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years) with no interaction (P interaction = 0.80). Incident DCIS was not associated with CVD-specific mortality (HR 0.77; CI-0.54-1.09, P = 0.14) or with all-cause mortality (HR 0.96; CI = 0.80-1.16, P = 0.68) with similar findings by age. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women, incident DCIS was associated with over three-fold higher breast cancer-specific mortality, with similar findings in younger and older postmenopausal women. These finding suggest caution in using age to adjust DCIS clinical management or research strategies.

Hidden danger: The long-term effect of ultrafine particles on mortality and its sociodemographic disparities in New York State.

Although previous studies have shown increased health risks of particulate matters, few have evaluated the long-term health impacts of ultrafine particles (UFPs or PM0.1, ≤ 0.1 µm in diameter). This study assessed the association between long-term exposure to UFPs and mortality in New York State (NYS), including total non-accidental and cause-specific mortalities, sociodemographic disparities and seasonal trends. Collecting data from a comprehensive chemical transport model and NYS Vital Records, we used the interquartile range (IQR) and high-level UFPs (≥75 % percentile) as indicators to link with mortalities. Our modified difference-in-difference model controlled for other pollutants, meteorological factors, spatial and temporal confounders. The findings indicate that long-term UFPs exposure significantly increases the risk of non-accidental mortality (RR=1.10, 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.17), cardiovascular mortality (RR=1.11, 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.18) particularly for cerebrovascular (RR=1.21, 95 % CI: 1.10, 1.35) and pulmonary heart diseases (RR=1.33, 95 % CI: 1.13, 1.57), and respiratory mortality (borderline significance, RR=1.09, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.18). Hispanics (RR=1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.29) and non-Hispanic Blacks (RR=1.40, 95 % CI: 1.16, 1.68) experienced significantly higher mortality risk after exposure to UFPs, compared to non-Hispanic Whites. Children under five, older adults, non-NYC residents, and winter seasons are more susceptible to UFPs' effects.

Alcohol - a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023.

The objective of this scoping review is to evaluate the updated evidence on the consumption of alcohol and health outcomes regarded as relevant for the Nordic and Baltic countries, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. It is based on the previous Nordic Nutrition Recommendations of 2012 and relevant papers published until 31 May 2021. Current evidence from mainly observational epidemiological studies suggests that regular, moderate alcohol consumption may confer protective effects against myocardial infarction (MI) and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analyses do not fully support these findings, possibly because these analyses may fail to identify low alcohol intake. For several cancers, it is not possible to set any safe limit. All-cause mortality is not increased with light to moderate alcohol intake in middle-aged and older adults who do not engage in binge drinking. Total abstinence is associated with the lowest risk of mortality in young adults. Observational studies on alcohol consumption are hampered by a number of inherent methodological issues such as ascertainment of alcohol intake, selection of appropriate exposure groups, and insufficient control of confounding variables, colliders, and mediators. It should also be emphasized that there is a socio-economic contribution to the alcohol-health axis with a stronger detrimental effect of alcohol in the lower social classes. The above issues contribute to the complexity of unravelling the causal web between alcohol, mediators, confounders, and health outcome.

Greenness mitigate cause-specific mortality associated with air pollutants in ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients: An ecological health cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental risks to mortality of stroke. However, there exists a noteworthy knowledge gap concerning the different stroke subtypes, causes of death, the susceptibility of stroke patient, and the role of greenness in this context. METHODS: We analyzed data from an ecological health cohort, which included 334,261 patients aged ≥40 years with stroke (comprising 288,490 ischemic stroke and 45,771 hemorrhagic stroke) during the period 2013-2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposure to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the associations of annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) with both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Additionally, we conducted analyses to examine the effect modification by greenness and identify potential susceptibility factors through subgroup analyses. RESULT: In multivariable-adjusted models, long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.038, 95% CI: 1.029-1.047 for PM2.5; HR: 1.055, 95% CI: 1.026-1.085 for NO2, per 10 µg/m3, for ischemic stroke patients; similar for hemorrhagic stroke patients). Gradually increasing effect sizes were shown for CVD mortality and stroke mortality. The HRs of mortality were slightly weaker with high versus low vegetation exposure. Cumulative exposures increased the HRs of pollutant-related mortality, and greater greenness decreased this risk. Two subtypes of stroke patients exhibited diverse patterns of benefit. CONCLUSION: Increasing residential greenness attenuates the increased risk of mortality with different patterns due to chronic air pollutants for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, offering valuable insights for precise tertiary stroke prevention strategies.

Causal association of blood lipids with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk: a Mendelian randomization study.

Dyslipidemia has long been implicated in elevating mortality risk; yet, the precise associations between lipid traits and mortality remained undisclosed. Our study aimed to explore the causal effects of lipid traits on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. One-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with linear and nonlinear assumptions was conducted in a cohort of 407,951 European participants from the UK Biobank. Six lipid traits, consisting of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and lipoprotein(a), were included to investigate the causal associations with mortality. Two-sample MR was performed to replicate the association between each lipid trait and all-cause mortality. Univariable MR results showed that genetically predicted higher ApoA1 was significantly associated with a decreased all-cause mortality risk (HR[95% CI]:0.93 [0.89-0.97], P value = 0.001), which was validated by the two-sample MR analysis. Higher lipoprotein(a) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.03 [1.01-1.04], P value = 0.002). Multivariable MR confirmed the direct causal effects of ApoA1 and lipoprotein(a) on all-cause mortality. Meanwhile, nonlinear MR found no evidence for nonlinearity between lipids and all-cause mortality. Our examination into cause-specific mortality revealed a suggestive inverse association between ApoA1 and cancer mortality, a significant positive association between lipoprotein(a) and cardiovascular disease mortality, and a suggestive positive association between lipoprotein(a) and digestive disease mortality. High LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality but a decreased risk of neurodegenerative disease mortality. The findings suggest that implementing interventions to raise ApoA1 and decrease lipoprotein(a) levels may improve overall health outcomes and mitigate cancer and digestive disease mortality.

Sex-specific associations between sodium and potassium intake and overall and cause-specific mortality: a large prospective U.S. cohort study, systematic review, and updated meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease (CVD) health and mortality has been studied for decades, including the well-established association with blood pressure. However, non-linear patterns, dose-response associations, and sex differences in the relationship between sodium and potassium intakes and overall and cause-specific mortality remain to be elucidated and a comprehensive examination is lacking. Our study objective was to determine whether intake of sodium and potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio are associated with overall and cause-specific mortality in men and women. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 237,036 men and 179,068 women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to calculate hazard ratios. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also conducted. RESULTS: During 6,009,748 person-years of follow-up, there were 77,614 deaths, 49,297 among men and 28,317 among women. Adjusting for other risk factors, we found a significant positive association between higher sodium intake (≥ 2,000 mg/d) and increased overall and CVD mortality (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, men and women HRs = 1.06 and 1.10, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001; CVD mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs = 1.07 and 1.21, Pnonlinearity = 0.0002 and 0.01). Higher potassium intake and a lower sodium-potassium ratio were associated with a reduced mortality, with women showing stronger associations (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs for potassium = 0.96 and 0.82, and HRs for the sodium-potassium ratio = 1.09 and 1.23, for men and women, respectively; Pnonlinearity < 0.05 and both P for interaction ≤ 0.0006). The overall mortality associations with intake of sodium, potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio were generally similar across population risk factor subgroups with the exception that the inverse potassium-mortality association was stronger in men with lower body mass index or fruit consumption (Pinteraction < 0.0004). The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies based on 42 risk estimates, 2,085,904 participants, and 80,085 CVD events yielded very similar results (highest versus lowest sodium categories, pooled relative risk for CVD events = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20; Pnonlinearity < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates significant positive associations between daily sodium intake (within the range of sodium intake between 2,000 and 7,500 mg/d), the sodium-potassium ratio, and risk of CVD and overall mortality, with women having stronger sodium-potassium ratio-mortality associations than men, and with the meta-analysis providing compelling support for the CVD associations. These data may suggest decreasing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake as means to improve health and longevity, and our data pointing to a sex difference in the potassium-mortality and sodium-potassium ratio-mortality relationships provide additional evidence relevant to current dietary guidelines for the general adult population. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42022331618.

Association Between Nitrogen Dioxide Pollution and Cause-Specific Mortality in China: Cross-Sectional Time Series Study.

BACKGROUND: Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been frequently linked to a range of diseases and associated with high rates of mortality and morbidity worldwide. However, there is limited evidence regarding the risk of NO2 on a spectrum of causes of mortality. Moreover, adjustment for potential confounders in NO2 analysis has been insufficient, and the spatial resolution of exposure assessment has been limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantitatively assess the relationship between short-term NO2 exposure and death from a range of causes by adjusting for potential confounders in Guangzhou, China, and determine the modifying effect of gender and age. METHODS: A time series study was conducted on 413,703 deaths that occurred in Guangzhou during the period of 2010 to 2018. The causes of death were classified into 10 categories and 26 subcategories. We utilized a generalized additive model with quasi-Poisson regression analysis using a natural cubic splines function with lag structure of 0 to 4 days to estimate the potential lag effect of NO2 on cause-specific mortality. We estimated the percentage change in cause-specific mortality rates per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 levels. We stratified meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and air pressure into high and low levels with the median as the critical value and analyzed the effects of NO2 on various death-causing diseases at those high and low levels. To further identify potentially vulnerable subpopulations, we analyzed groups stratified by gender and age. RESULTS: A significant association existed between NO2 exposure and deaths from multiple causes. Each 10 µg/m3 increment in NO2 density at a lag of 0 to 4 days increased the risks of all-cause mortality by 1.73% (95% CI 1.36%-2.09%) and mortality due to nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, endocrine disease, and neoplasms by 1.75% (95% CI 1.38%-2.12%), 2.06% (95% CI 1.54%-2.59%), 2.32% (95% CI 1.51%-3.13%), 2.40% (95% CI 0.84%-3.98%), and 1.18% (95% CI 0.59%-1.78%), respectively. Among the 26 subcategories, mortality risk was associated with 16, including intentional self-harm, hypertensive disease, and ischemic stroke disease. Relatively higher effect estimates of NO2 on mortality existed for low levels of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and air pressure than with high levels, except a relatively higher effect estimate was present for endocrine disease at a high air pressure level. Most of the differences between subgroups were not statistically significant. The effect estimates for NO2 were similar by gender. There were significant differences between the age groups for mortality due to all causes, nonaccidental causes, and cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term NO2 exposure may increase the risk of mortality due to a spectrum of causes, especially in potentially vulnerable populations. These findings may be important for predicting and modifying guidelines for NO2 exposure in China.

Impact of short-term exposure to air pollution on natural mortality and vulnerable populations: a multi-city case-crossover analysis in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The adverse effect of air pollution on mortality is well documented worldwide but the identification of more vulnerable populations at higher risk of death is still limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between natural mortality (overall and cause-specific) and short-term exposure to five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3 and black carbon) and identify potential vulnerable populations in Belgium. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions to assess the relationship between mortality and air pollution in the nine largest Belgian agglomerations. Then, we performed a random-effect meta-analysis of the pooled results and described the global air pollution-mortality association. We carried out stratified analyses by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days and chronic preexisting health conditions), living environment (levels of population density, built-up areas) and season of death to identify effect modifiers of the association. RESULTS: The study included 304,754 natural deaths registered between 2010 and 2015. We found percentage increases for overall natural mortality associated with 10 µg/m3 increases of air pollution levels of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.0%) for PM2.5, 0.4% (0.1%, 0.8%) for PM10, 0.5% (-0.2%, 1.1%) for O3, 1.0% (0.3%, 1.7%) for NO2 and 7.1% (-0.1%, 14.8%) for black carbon. There was also evidence for increases of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We did not find effect modification by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days). However, this study suggested differences in risk of death for people with preexisting conditions (thrombosis, cardiovascular diseases, asthma, diabetes and thyroid affections), season of death (May-September vs October-April) and levels of built-up area in the neighborhood (for NO2). CONCLUSIONS: This work provided evidence for the adverse health effects of air pollution and contributed to the identification of specific population groups. These findings can help to better define public-health interventions and prevention strategies.

Consumption of Berries and Flavonoids in Relation to Mortality in NHANES, 1999-2014.

BACKGROUND: Berries are foods that are abundant in nutrients, especially flavonoids, that promote good health; however, the effects of total berries on mortality are not well characterized. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether intakes of total berries and specific berry types including blueberries, strawberries, cranberries, flavonoids, and subclasses of flavonoids (anthocyanidins, flavonols, flavones, flavanones, flavan-3-ols, and isoflavones) in relation to mortality risk in United States adults. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of the United States adult population was obtained using data from the 1994-2014 NHANES (n = 37,232). Intake of berries was estimated using 24-h food recalls (1999-2014), and flavonoids intake was calculated using the matched USDA's expanded flavonoid database. Mortality outcomes based on 8 y of follow-up were obtained using linked death certificates. RESULTS: Compared with nonconsumers, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.79 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.7, 0.89] for any berry consumption, 0.86 (0.75, 0.99) for strawberry consumption 0.79 (0.66, 0.95) for blueberries, and 0.69 (0.51, 0.93) for cranberries. Compared with the lower median of intake, risk of all-cause mortality for greater intake was 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) for total flavonoids, 0.85 (0.76, 0.95) for anthocyanidins, 0.9 (0.82, 0.99) for flavan-3-ols, 0.89 (0.79, 0.9) for flavanols, and 0.89 (0.8, 0.99) for flavones. There was a dose-response relationship between intakes of total flavonoids, anthocyanidins, and flavones and lower all-cause mortality risks (Ptrend < 0.05). Risk for cardiometabolic mortality was 0.75 (0.58, 0.98) for berry consumers and 0.49 (0.25, 0.98) for cranberry consumers. For respiratory disease mortality, risk was 0.41 (0.2, 0.86), compared with blueberry nonconsumers. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of berries and flavonoids were associated with a lower overall mortality risk in adult Americans. Few adults regularly consume berries, indicating that increased intake of berries and flavonoid-rich foods may be beneficial to health.

The association between TyG and all-cause/non-cardiovascular mortality in general patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus is modified by age: results from the cohort study of NHANES 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index in general type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients is still unclear. Therefore, we aimed to determine the associations between TyG and all-cause/cause-specific death in a T2DM cohort and explore whether such associations would be modified by age. METHODS: A total of 3,376 patients with T2DM from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2018 were selected and divided into the younger group (< 65 yrs) and the older group (≥ 65 yrs). Baseline TyG was calculated and cause-specific mortality status [cardiovascular (CV), cancer, and non-CV] was determined by the NHANES Public-Use Linked Mortality Files through 31 December 2019. Multivariate Cox and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression models were used to evaluate the association between TyG and all-cause/cause-specific mortality. Interaction between TyG and age to mortality was also evaluated. Sensitivity analyses were performed in patients without cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, or insulin treatment. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 107 months, 805 all-cause deaths occurred, of which 250 and 144 were attributed to CV and cancer deaths. There was a significant age interaction to the association between TyG and all-cause/non-CV mortality. After fully adjusting for potential confounding factors, higher TyG was associated with an increased risk of all-cause [TyG per unit increase Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.33, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.06-1.66, p = 0.014] and non-CV mortality (TyG per unit increase HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.18-2.01, p = 0.002) only in the younger group, but not in the older group. There was no significant association between TyG and CV/cancer death in the total cohort and two age subgroups. Similar results were found in RCS and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: In a national sample of patients with T2DM in the United States, we found that the association between TyG and all-cause/non-CV death was modified by age. Higher TyG was only associated with an increased risk of all-cause/non-CV only in T2DM patients younger than 65 years old, but not in older patients.

Frailty predicts all-cause and cause-specific mortality among older adults in Austria: 8-year mortality follow-up of the Austrian Health Interview Survey (ATHIS 2014).

BACKGROUND: The frailty index (FI) is an established predictor of all-cause mortality among older adults, but less is known with regard to cause-specific mortality, and whether the predictive power of the FI varies between men and women and by socio-economic position. METHODS: We assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality during 8 years of follow-up (median = 7 years) among the population-representative sample of older adults (65 + , n = 2,561) from the European Health Interview Survey in Austria (ATHIS 2014). A FI at baseline was constructed from 41 health deficits. Official cause of death information from Statistics Austria was linked with the survey data by the Austrian Micro Data Center (AMDC). Next to all-cause mortality, we differentiated between mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancer, and other causes. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for socio-demographic variables and causes of death as competing risks were used to assess mortality prediction. RESULTS: Among the participants, 43.5% were robust (FI < 0.10), 37.7% pre-frail (FI = 0.10-0.21), and 18.7% were frail (FI > 0.21). 405 (15.8%) participants died during follow-up. Among the deceased, 148 (36.5%) died from CVD, 127 (31.4%) died from cancer, and 130 (32.1%) died from other causes of death. The FI predicted all-cause (hazard ratio, HR = 1.33 per 0.1 FI and HR = 2.4 for frail compared to robust older adults) and cause-specific mortality risk (HRCVD = 1.25/2.46, HRcancer = 1.19/1.47, HRother = 1.49/3.59). Area under the curve (AUC) values were acceptable for CVD mortality (0.78) and other causes of death (0.74), and poor for cancer mortality (0.64). CONCLUSIONS: The FI predicts all-cause and cause-specific mortality (CVD, other causes) well, which points to its relevance as a potential screening tool for risk stratification among community-dwelling older adults.

Dietary fiber intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence supports the effects of dietary fiber on the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, there is no updated systematic review and meta-analysis that compares and pools the effect of different types of fiber on mortality. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, all prospective cohort studies that evaluated the relationship between dietary fiber intake and all-cause or cause-specific mortality were included. The PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases were searched up to October 2022. Data extraction and quality assessment were performed by two researchers independently. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Chi-square based test. Random/fixed effect meta-analysis was used to pool the hazard ratios (HR) or relative risks (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the association between different types of fiber and mortality. RESULTS: This systematic review included 64 eligible studies, with a total sample size of 3512828 subjects, that investigated the association between dietary fiber intake and mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer. Random-effect meta-analysis shows that higher consumption of total dietary fiber, significantly decreased the risk of all-cause mortality, CVD-related mortality, and cancer-related mortality by 23, 26 and 22 % (HR:0.77; 95%CI (0.73,0.82), HR:0.74; 95%CI (0.71,0.77) and HR:0.78; 95%CI (0.68,0.87)), respectively. The consumption of insoluble fiber tended to be more effective than soluble fiber intake in reducing the risk of total mortality and mortality due to CVD and cancer. Additionally, dietary fiber from whole grains, cereals, and vegetables was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality, while dietary fiber from nuts and seeds reduced the risk of CVD-related death by 43 % (HR:0.57; 95 % CI (0.38,0.77)). CONCLUSION: This comprehensive meta-analysis provides additional evidence supporting the protective association between fiber intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates.

Replacing red and processed meat with lean or fatty fish and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Norwegian women. The Norwegian Women and Cancer Study (NOWAC): a prospective cohort study.

Nordic Nutrition Recommendations recommend reducing red and processed meat and increasing fish consumption, but the impact of this replacement on mortality is understudied. This study investigated the replacement of red and processed meat with fish in relation to mortality. Of 83 304 women in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study (NOWAC) study, 9420 died during a median of 21·0 years of follow-up. The hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression with analyses stratified on red and processed meat intake due to non-linearity. Higher processed meat (> 30 g/d), red and processed meat (> 50 g/d), and fatty fish consumption were associated with higher mortality, while red meat and lean fish consumption were neutral or beneficial. Among women with higher processed meat intake (> 30 g/d), replacing 20 g/d with lean fish was associated with lower all-cause (HR 0·92, 95 % CI 0·89, 0·96), cancer (HR 0·92, 95 % CI 0·88, 0·97) and CVD mortality (HR 0·82, 95 % CI 0·74, 0·90), while replacing with fatty fish was associated with lower CVD mortality (HR 0·87, 95 % CI 0·77, 0·97), but not with all-cause or cancer mortality. Replacing processed meat with fish among women with lower processed meat intake (≤ 30 g/d) or replacing red meat with fish was not associated with mortality. Replacing processed meat with lean or fatty fish may lower the risk of premature deaths in Norwegian women, but only in women with high intake of processed meat. These findings suggest that interventions to reduce processed meat intake should target high consumers.