Future climate suitability of Hemileia vastatrix in arabica coffee under CMIP6 scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is one of the most important commodities today, with a high economic value worldwide. Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix Berk. et Br.) has been showing a high impact on Brazilian coffee trees among the various diseases that attack coffee. The climate has a great influence on the development of diseases, especially when fungi are the causal agents. This study aimed to carry out the zoning of climate favorability for coffee leaf rust in the traditional and main coffee-producing regions of Brazil. The study was conducted in 13 locations in the states of Paraná, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the current scenario were collected using the WorldClim version 2.1 platform for the last climatological normal and future climate change data. The ideal climate conditions for coffee leaf rust consist of a mean air temperature ranging from 21 to 25 °C and precipitation >30 mm per month. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects scenarios associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports consisted of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP-1 2.6, SSP-2 4.5, SSP-3 7.0 and SSP-5 8.5, the latter being considered one of the most catastrophic. All steps to carry out the suitability zoning were performed in a tool using the QGIS geographic information system software. RESULTS: Zoning for coffee leaf rust had three classes: favorable, relatively favorable and unfavorable. Currently, the largest coffee-producing region in Brazil has 49.1% of its analyzed area classified as favorable, 39.2% as relatively favorable and 11.7% as unfavorable. In the current scenario, Patrocínio and Três Pontas are locations with high coffee production in which the favorable class is predominant. The state of Minas Gerais has an annual mean of 55.3% of its entire territory apt for the disease, with the highest occurrence between September and March. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change has a negative impact on the development of coffee leaf rust, mainly in the long term, as in the period of 2081-2100, in which the SSP-5 8.5 scenario led to a decrease in the favorable and unfavorable areas and an increase in the relatively favorable areas of 9.8%, 18.6% and 71.5% for the Brazilian territory, respectively. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Allelic Diversity at Abiotic Stress Responsive Genes in Relationship to Ecological Drought Indices for Cultivated Tepary Bean, Phaseolus acutifolius A. Gray, and Its Wild Relatives.

Some of the major impacts of climate change are expected in regions where drought stress is already an issue. Grain legumes are generally drought susceptible. However, tepary bean and its wild relatives within Phaseolus acutifolius or P. parvifolius are from arid areas between Mexico and the United States. Therefore, we hypothesize that these bean accessions have diversity signals indicative of adaptation to drought at key candidate genes such as: Asr2, Dreb2B, and ERECTA. By sequencing alleles of these genes and comparing to estimates of drought tolerance indices from climate data for the collection site of geo-referenced, tepary bean accessions, we determined the genotype x environmental association (GEA) of each gene. Diversity analysis found that cultivated and wild P. acutifolius were intermingled with var. tenuifolius and P. parvifolius, signifying that allele diversity was ample in the wild and cultivated clade over a broad sense (sensu lato) evaluation. Genes Dreb2B and ERECTA harbored signatures of directional selection, represented by six SNPs correlated with the environmental drought indices. This suggests that wild tepary bean is a reservoir of novel alleles at genes for drought tolerance, as expected for a species that originated in arid environments. Our study corroborated that candidate gene approach was effective for marker validation across a broad genetic base of wild tepary accessions.

Physical Dormancy Release in Medicago truncatula Seeds Is Related to Environmental Variations.

Seed dormancy and timing of its release is an important developmental transition determining the survival of individuals, populations, and species in variable environments. Medicago truncatula was used as a model to study physical seed dormancy at the ecological and genetics level. The effect of alternating temperatures, as one of the causes releasing physical seed dormancy, was tested in 178 M. truncatula accessions over three years. Several coefficients of dormancy release were related to environmental variables. Dormancy varied greatly (4-100%) across accessions as well as year of experiment. We observed overall higher physical dormancy release under more alternating temperatures (35/15 °C) in comparison with less alternating ones (25/15 °C). Accessions from more arid climates released dormancy under higher experimental temperature alternations more than accessions originating from less arid environments. The plasticity of physical dormancy can probably distribute the germination through the year and act as a bet-hedging strategy in arid environments. On the other hand, a slight increase in physical dormancy was observed in accessions from environments with higher among-season temperature variation. Genome-wide association analysis identified 136 candidate genes related to secondary metabolite synthesis, hormone regulation, and modification of the cell wall. The activity of these genes might mediate seed coat permeability and, ultimately, imbibition and germination.

Root and shoot variation in relation to potential intermittent drought adaptation of Mesoamerican wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.).

BACKGROUND: Wild crop relatives have been potentially subjected to stresses on an evolutionary time scale prior to domestication. Among these stresses, drought is one of the main factors limiting crop productivity and its impact is likely to increase under current scenarios of global climate change. We sought to determine to what extent wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) exhibited adaptation to drought stress, whether this potential adaptation is dependent on the climatic conditions of the location of origin of individual populations, and to what extent domesticated common bean reflects potential drought adaptation. METHODS: An extensive and diverse set of wild beans from across Mesoamerica, along with a set of reference Mesoamerican domesticated cultivars, were evaluated for root and shoot traits related to drought adaptation. A water deficit experiment was conducted by growing each genotype in a long transparent tube in greenhouse conditions so that root growth, in addition to shoot growth, could be monitored. RESULTS: Phenotypic and landscape genomic analyses, based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms, suggested that beans originating from central and north-west Mexico and Oaxaca, in the driest parts of their distribution, produced more biomass and were deeper-rooted. Nevertheless, deeper rooting was correlated with less root biomass production relative to total biomass. Compared with wild types, domesticated types showed a stronger reduction and delay in growth and development in response to drought stress. Specific genomic regions were associated with root depth, biomass productivity and drought response, some of which showed signals of selection and were previously related to productivity and drought tolerance. CONCLUSIONS: The drought tolerance of wild beans consists in its stronger ability, compared with domesticated types, to continue growth in spite of water-limited conditions. This study is the first to relate bean response to drought to environment of origin for a diverse selection of wild beans. It provides information that needs to be corroborated in crosses between wild and domesticated beans to make it applicable to breeding programmes.

Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.

Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.

Emergency drills for agricultural drought response: a case study in Guatemala.

Drills are an important element of disaster management, helping to increase preparedness and reduce the risk of real-time failure. Yet, they are not applied systematically to slow-onset disasters such as a drought, which causes damage that is not instantly apparent and thus does not solicit immediate action. This case study evaluates how drills inform institutional responses to slow-onset disasters. It spotlights Guatemala, a country where drought has severe impacts on livelihoods and the food security of small farmers. By implementing part of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food's institutional response plan for drought, it explores how drills can help to detect issues in emergency response and to foster an institutional focus on improvements in preparedness. The results reveal that drills alone do not trigger institutional improvements if unsupported by a wider strategy that seeks to enhance capacities and protocols. These findings are valuable, however, in making problems transparent and in creating the space for discussion.

Spatial and Temporal Scales of Range Expansion in Wild Phaseolus vulgaris.

The wild progenitor of common-bean has an exceptionally large distribution from northern Mexico to northwestern Argentina, unusual among crop wild progenitors. This research sought to document major events of range expansion that led to this distribution and associated environmental changes. Through the use of genotyping-by-sequencing (∼20,000 SNPs) and geographic information systems applied to a sample of 246 accessions of wild Phaseolus vulgaris, including 157 genotypes of the Mesoamerican, 77 of the southern Andean, and 12 of the Northern Peru-Ecuador gene pools, we identified five geographically distinct subpopulations. Three of these subpopulations belong to the Mesoamerican gene pool (Northern and Central Mexico, Oaxaca, and Southern Mexico, Central America and northern South America) and one each to the Northern Peru-Ecuador (PhI) and the southern Andean gene pools. The five subpopulations were distributed in different floristic provinces of the Neotropical seasonally dry forest and showed distinct distributions for temperature and rainfall resulting in decreased local potential evapotranspiration (PhI and southern Andes groups) compared with the two Mexican groups. Three of these subpopulations represent long-distance dispersal events from Mesoamerica into Northern Peru-Ecuador, southern Andes, and Central America and Colombia, in chronological order. Of particular note is that the dispersal to Northern Peru-Ecuador markedly predates the dispersal to the southern Andes (∼400 vs. ∼100 ky), consistent with the ancestral nature of the phaseolin seed protein and chloroplast sequences observed in the PhI group. Seed dispersal in common bean can be, therefore, described at different spatial and temporal scales, from localized, annual seed shattering to long-distance, evolutionarily rare migration.

Productive performance of blackberry cultivars in altitude region / Desempenho produtivo de cultivares de amoreira-preta em região de altitude

Information on the production performance of blackberry in less colder regions are fundamentals to the expansion of the cultivated area and extension of management practices for cultivars adapted to climate conditions in Brazil. The research was carried out with the aim to evaluate the productive performance of different blackberries cultivars in altitude region of 1,387m with mild temperatures, situate at 18º1456”S, 43º360”W, in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. It was carried during the seasons 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. The blackberry cultivars evaluated were the following ones ‘Brazos, ‘Guarani, ‘Tupy and ‘Xavante. Flowering and harvesting of cultivars were evaluated as well as climatological data of the area in order to relate the number of hours of accumulated cold less than 13°C, 10°C and 7.2°C with production and crop time. To determine the production, the mass of blackberries harvested per plant was measured. Production of blackberry cultivars was extended in altitude region with similar productivity to the other producing regions in Brazil. Productive performance of the cultivars varied according to the accumulation of cold hours with mild temperatures that occurred in cultivation region. ‘Brazos, ‘Guarani, ‘Tupy and ‘Xavante showed good adaptation, being ‘Brazos the cultivar most productive.(AU)

As informações sobre o desempenho produtivo de amoreira-preta em regiões com menor ocorrência de frio são fundamentais para a ampliação da área de cultivada e adequação de práticas de manejo para as cultivares adaptadas as condições climáticas do Brasil. A pesquisa foi realizada com o objetivo avaliar o desempenho produtivo de diferentes cultivares de amoreira-preta em região com altitude 1.384m, com temperaturas amenas, situada 18º1456S, 43º360W, Minas Gerais, Brasil. O trabalho foi realizado nas safras 2013/2014, 2014/2015 e 2015/2016. As cultivares de amoreira-preta avaliadas foram ‘Brazos, ‘Guarani, ‘Tupy e ‘Xavante. Durante o período de floração e de colheita das cultivares e os dados climatológicos da região para relacionar o número de horas de frio acumulado inferior a 13°C, 10°C e 7,2°C com a produção e a duração do ciclo. Para determinar a produção, avaliou-se a massa das amoras colhidas por planta em todas as colheitas realizadas A produção de cultivares de amora foi estendida em região de altitude com produtividade similar às demais regiões produtoras do Brasil. O desempenho produtivo das cultivares variou em função do acúmulo de horas de frio com temperaturas amenas que ocorreram na região do cultivo. As cultivares ‘Brazos, ‘Guarani, ‘Tupy e ‘Xavante apresentaram boa adaptação em região de altitude, sendo a ‘Brazos a cultivar mais produtiva.(AU)

Productive performance of blackberry cultivars in altitude region / Desempenho produtivo de cultivares de amoreira-preta em região de altitude

Information on the production performance of blackberry in less colder regions are fundamentals to the expansion of the cultivated area and extension of management practices for cultivars adapted to climate conditions in Brazil. The research was carried out with the aim to evaluate the productive performance of different blackberries cultivars in altitude region of 1,387m with mild temperatures, situate at 18º14’56”S, 43º36’0”W, in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. It was carried during the seasons 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. The blackberry cultivars evaluated were the following ones ‘Brazos’, ‘Guarani’, ‘Tupy’ and ‘Xavante’. Flowering and harvesting of cultivars were evaluated as well as climatological data of the area in order to relate the number of hours of accumulated cold less than 13°C, 10°C and 7.2°C with production and crop time. To determine the production, the mass of blackberries harvested per plant was measured. Production of blackberry cultivars was extended in altitude region with similar productivity to the other producing regions in Brazil. Productive performance of the cultivars varied according to the accumulation of cold hours with mild temperatures that occurred in cultivation region. ‘Brazos’, ‘Guarani’, ‘Tupy’ and ‘Xavante’ showed good adaptation, being ‘Brazos’ the cultivar most productive.

As informações sobre o desempenho produtivo de amoreira-preta em regiões com menor ocorrência de frio são fundamentais para a ampliação da área de cultivada e adequação de práticas de manejo para as cultivares adaptadas as condições climáticas do Brasil. A pesquisa foi realizada com o objetivo avaliar o desempenho produtivo de diferentes cultivares de amoreira-preta em região com altitude 1.384m, com temperaturas amenas, situada 18º14’56’’S, 43º36’0’’W, Minas Gerais, Brasil. O trabalho foi realizado nas safras 2013/2014, 2014/2015 e 2015/2016. As cultivares de amoreira-preta avaliadas foram ‘Brazos’, ‘Guarani’, ‘Tupy’ e ‘Xavante’. Durante o período de floração e de colheita das cultivares e os dados climatológicos da região para relacionar o número de horas de frio acumulado inferior a 13°C, 10°C e 7,2°C com a produção e a duração do ciclo. Para determinar a produção, avaliou-se a massa das amoras colhidas por planta em todas as colheitas realizadas A produção de cultivares de amora foi estendida em região de altitude com produtividade similar às demais regiões produtoras do Brasil. O desempenho produtivo das cultivares variou em função do acúmulo de horas de frio com temperaturas amenas que ocorreram na região do cultivo. As cultivares ‘Brazos’, ‘Guarani’, ‘Tupy’ e ‘Xavante’ apresentaram boa adaptação em região de altitude, sendo a ‘Brazos’ a cultivar mais produtiva.

Productive performance of blackberry cultivars in altitude region / Desempenho produtivo de cultivares de amoreira-preta em região de altitude

ABSTRACT: Information on the production performance of blackberry in less colder regions are fundamentals to the expansion of the cultivated area and extension of management practices for cultivars adapted to climate conditions in Brazil. The research was carried out with the aim to evaluate the productive performance of different blackberries cultivars in altitude region of 1,387m with mild temperatures, situate at 18º14'56"S, 43º36'0"W, in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. It was carried during the seasons 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. The blackberry cultivars evaluated were the following ones 'Brazos', 'Guarani', 'Tupy' and 'Xavante'. Flowering and harvesting of cultivars were evaluated as well as climatological data of the area in order to relate the number of hours of accumulated cold less than 13°C, 10°C and 7.2°C with production and crop time. To determine the production, the mass of blackberries harvested per plant was measured. Production of blackberry cultivars was extended in altitude region with similar productivity to the other producing regions in Brazil. Productive performance of the cultivars varied according to the accumulation of cold hours with mild temperatures that occurred in cultivation region. 'Brazos', 'Guarani', 'Tupy' and 'Xavante' showed good adaptation, being 'Brazos' the cultivar most productive.

RESUMO: As informações sobre o desempenho produtivo de amoreira-preta em regiões com menor ocorrência de frio são fundamentais para a ampliação da área de cultivada e adequação de práticas de manejo para as cultivares adaptadas as condições climáticas do Brasil. A pesquisa foi realizada com o objetivo avaliar o desempenho produtivo de diferentes cultivares de amoreira-preta em região com altitude 1.384m, com temperaturas amenas, situada 18º14'56''S, 43º36'0''W, Minas Gerais, Brasil. O trabalho foi realizado nas safras 2013/2014, 2014/2015 e 2015/2016. As cultivares de amoreira-preta avaliadas foram 'Brazos', 'Guarani', 'Tupy' e 'Xavante'. Durante o período de floração e de colheita das cultivares e os dados climatológicos da região para relacionar o número de horas de frio acumulado inferior a 13°C, 10°C e 7,2°C com a produção e a duração do ciclo. Para determinar a produção, avaliou-se a massa das amoras colhidas por planta em todas as colheitas realizadas A produção de cultivares de amora foi estendida em região de altitude com produtividade similar às demais regiões produtoras do Brasil. O desempenho produtivo das cultivares variou em função do acúmulo de horas de frio com temperaturas amenas que ocorreram na região do cultivo. As cultivares 'Brazos', 'Guarani', 'Tupy' e 'Xavante' apresentaram boa adaptação em região de altitude, sendo a 'Brazos' a cultivar mais produtiva.

Drought, agricultural adaptation, and sociopolitical collapse in the Maya Lowlands.

Paleoclimate records indicate a series of severe droughts was associated with societal collapse of the Classic Maya during the Terminal Classic period (∼800-950 C.E.). Evidence for drought largely derives from the drier, less populated northern Maya Lowlands but does not explain more pronounced and earlier societal disruption in the relatively humid southern Maya Lowlands. Here we apply hydrogen and carbon isotope compositions of plant wax lipids in two lake sediment cores to assess changes in water availability and land use in both the northern and southern Maya lowlands. We show that relatively more intense drying occurred in the southern lowlands than in the northern lowlands during the Terminal Classic period, consistent with earlier and more persistent societal decline in the south. Our results also indicate a period of substantial drying in the southern Maya Lowlands from ∼200 C.E. to 500 C.E., during the Terminal Preclassic and Early Classic periods. Plant wax carbon isotope records indicate a decline in C4 plants in both lake catchments during the Early Classic period, interpreted to reflect a shift from extensive agriculture to intensive, water-conservative maize cultivation that was motivated by a drying climate. Our results imply that agricultural adaptations developed in response to earlier droughts were initially successful, but failed under the more severe droughts of the Terminal Classic period.

Molecular proxies for climate maladaptation in a long-lived tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.