The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to kidney dysfunction from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney dysfunction (KD) poses a severe threat to human health. The aim of this study is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to KD, thereby providing a theoretical basis for relevant public health policies. METHODS: This study analyzed trends in the burden of CVD attributable to KD using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data. It also examined the differences in mortality rates across various age groups, genders, and subtypes of CVD. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model combined with joinpoint regression analysis was employed to gain further insights into the changing trends and inflection points of CVD-related mortality. RESULTS: In 2021, the global number of deaths from CVD attributable to KD significantly increased compared to 1990. However, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased in 2021. The burden of CVD due to KD was particularly heavy among the elderly. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model revealed a decline in CVD-related mortality rates, with similar trends observed for both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that although the ASMR for CVD due to KD is on a declining trend globally, the absolute number of deaths has significantly increased. This trend is especially pronounced among individuals aged 80 and older, males, and regions with a middle socio-demographic index (SDI). In the context of global aging, the burden of CVD related to KD is becoming increasingly substantial.

Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most common reason for postpartum hospital readmission. Better prediction of postpartum readmission will improve the health care of patients. These models will allow better use of resources and decrease health care costs. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate clinical predictors of postpartum readmission for hypertension using a novel machine learning (ML) model that can effectively predict readmissions and balance treatment costs. We examined whether blood pressure and other measures during labor, not just postpartum measures, would be important predictors of readmission. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from the PeriData website data set from a single midwestern academic center of all women who delivered from 2009 to 2018. This study consists of 2 data sets; 1 spanning the years 2009-2015 and the other spanning the years 2016-2018. A total of 47 clinical and demographic variables were collected including blood pressure measurements during labor and post partum, laboratory values, and medication administration. Hospital readmissions were verified by patient chart review. In total, 32,645 were considered in the study. For our analysis, we trained several cost-sensitive ML models to predict the primary outcome of hypertension-related postpartum readmission within 42 days post partum. Models were evaluated using cross-validation and on independent data sets (models trained on data from 2009 to 2015 were validated on the data from 2016 to 2018). To assess clinical viability, a cost analysis of the models was performed to see how their recommendations could affect treatment costs. RESULTS: Of the 32,645 patients included in the study, 170 were readmitted due to a hypertension-related diagnosis. A cost-sensitive random forest method was found to be the most effective with a balanced accuracy of 76.61% for predicting readmission. Using a feature importance and area under the curve analysis, the most important variables for predicting readmission were blood pressures in labor and 24-48 hours post partum increasing the area under the curve of the model from 0.69 (SD 0.06) to 0.81 (SD 0.06), (P=.05). Cost analysis showed that the resulting model could have reduced associated readmission costs by US $6000 against comparable models with similar F1-score and balanced accuracy. The most effective model was then implemented as a risk calculator that is publicly available. The code for this calculator and the model is also publicly available at a GitHub repository. CONCLUSIONS: Blood pressure measurements during labor through 48 hours post partum can be combined with other variables to predict women at risk for postpartum readmission. Using ML techniques in conjunction with these data have the potential to improve health outcomes and reduce associated costs. The use of the calculator can greatly assist clinicians in providing care to patients and improve medical decision-making.

Dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort analysis with predictions.

AIMS: The purpose of this study was to analyze the dynamic trends of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). METHODS: Data on IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the global disease burden database. Joinpoint software was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). An age‒period‒cohort model was used to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort on these changes. The Bayesian framework was used to predict IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C from 2022 to 2040. RESULTS: The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C decreased from 50. 479 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 32.286 per 100,000 people in 2021, and ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C was higher in males than in females. The longitudinal age curves of the overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a monotonic upward trend, especially after 65 years of age. The period and cohort effect relative risk (RR) values of overall IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C showed a downward trend. The overall ASMR of IHD attributable to high LDL-C is predicted to show a downward trend, and male IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C is expected to be higher than that of females. CONCLUSION: This study revealed a sustained decrease in IHD mortality attributable to high LDL-C over three decades, with a continued decline expected. Despite this, gender disparities persist, with males experiencing higher mortality rates and elderly individuals remaining a vulnerable group.

Immunotherapy Improves the Survival of Stage 4 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients at the US Population Level: The Real-World Evidence.

INTRODUCTION: Immunotherapy has revolutionized the management of lung cancer and improved lung cancer survival in trials, but its real-world impact at the population level remains unclear. METHODS: Using data obtained from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries from 2004 through 2019, we addressed the long-term trends in the incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), and survival of lung cancer patients in the United States. RESULTS: The incidence and IBM of both non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) all significantly decreased steadily from 2004 to 2019. The 1-year survival (1-YS) of both NSCLC and SCLC improved over time, with the best improvement observed for Stage 4 NSCLC. Two significant turning points of Stage 4 NSCLC 1-YS were observed over the years: 0.63% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33%-0.93%) from 2004 to 2010, 0.81% (95% CI: 0.41%-1.21%) from 2010 to 2014 and a striking 2.09% (95% CI: 1.70%-2.47%) from 2014 to 2019. The same two turning points in 1-YS were pronounced for Stage 4 NSCLC in women, which were coincident with the introduction of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) and immunotherapy. However, for Stage 4 NSCLC in men, only one significant turning point in the 1-YS starting in 2014 was found, which might only correspond to immunotherapy. Significant period effects in reduced IBM were also observed for both Stage 4 AD and Stage 4 SQCC during the period. CONCLUSION: This SEER analysis found that immunotherapy improved the survival of Stage 4 NSCLC patients at the population level in the United States. This real-world evidence confirms that immunotherapy has truly revolutionized the management of lung cancer.

Blame it on my youth: the origins of attitudes towards immigration.

Recent studies have demonstrated generational differences in attitudes towards immigration, however, less is known about what are the exact factors behind these differences. Our study investigates why cohorts formulate distinct patterns in attitudes towards immigration through a collective process of political socialization during their formative years. The theoretical arguments are tested using hierarchical age-period-cohort modelling across thirteen cohorts in thirteen European countries using micro attitudinal data (2002-2020) integrated with historical macro-political data. We find that contextual exposure to the principle of equality in the formative political climate is central to the formulation of a person's attitudes towards immigration later in life. While the prevalence of the principle of equality affects immigration attitudes in adulthood positively, the principle of tradition does not. The findings imply that even subtle and cyclical shifts in national politics affect the political orientations of those undergoing the process of political socialization. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41269-023-00314-6.

Aging-related changes in protein and fat intake and their related meal types factors by longitudinal birth cohort analysis using the National Health and Nutrition Survey in Japan from 2001 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: To provide seamless nutritional support from early adulthood to late adulthood in Japan, this study aimed to identify aging-related changes in protein and fat intake and meal types. METHODS: Birth cohort analysis was conducted in this study. The protein intake, protein-to-energy ratio, fat intake, and fat-to-energy ratio in men and women from their 20s to 60s in 2001 was calculated using the data of the National Health and Nutrition Survey in Japan between 2001 and 2019 (n = 139,876, 47.0% men, mean age: 54.9 and 55.4 years for men and women, respectively). The intakes were calculated for every subsequent year, the aging-related changes were identified by age group, and the 99 food groups were classified into staple-focused meal types through factor analysis. The weighted average component value per 1 g of each food group was calculated, multiplied by the food weight, and totaled to determine the mean intake by meal type and to confirm the aging-related changes. The year when the slope changed before and after was identified through Joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: The protein intake, protein-to-energy ratio, fat intake, and fat-to-energy ratio initially declined or remained unchanged with aging in almost all generations (20s to 60s in 2001) but began to increase after 8-15 years. The food groups were classified into rice, noodle, and bread types. The protein and fat intake from the noodle type initially showed a decreasing trend but began to increase with aging after 8-15 years in almost all generations in both sexes (p < 0.05 for difference in slope). CONCLUSIONS: The increase of protein intake and protein-to-energy ratio and fat intake and fat-to-energy ratio over time observed among Japanese adults may be related to the increased intake of food groups from noodle type meals. Thus, considering the type of staple food (i.e., rice, noodles, or bread) and its combination with other foods when adhering to a balanced diet is necessary.

Global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVES: Bladder cancer is a common malignancy worldwide, with substantial morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and to analyze the trends using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. STUDY DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study, secondary analyses were conducted to assess the burden of bladder cancer using data from GBD 2019. METHODS: Bladder cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) were obtained from the GBD 2019 study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends in ASRs. An APC analysis was performed to distinguish the effects of age, period, and cohort on the observed temporal trends. RESULTS: The global prevalence of bladder cancer increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, reaching 2,869,046.4 cases (95% UI: 2,614,200.3-3,114,474.4) in 2019. The age-standardized prevalence rate rose from 20.9 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 37.1 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 1.97 (95% CI: 1.93-2.01). The global burden of bladder cancer, as measured by DALYs, increased from 48.0 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 56.8 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.47 (95% CI: 0.4-0.53), demonstrating the growing impact of this disease on population health. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a significant increase in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, with substantial variations across sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and GBD regions. The findings emphasize the need for concerted efforts at the global, regional, and national levels to reduce the burden of bladder cancer through primary prevention, early detection, and improved access to treatment services.

Secular trends in the prevalence of schizophrenia among different age, period and cohort groups between 1990 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia remains a major public health challenge, and designing efforts to manage it requires understanding its prevalence over time at different geographic scales and population groups. METHODS: Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, annual percentage change of schizophrenia was assessed across different age, period and cohort groups at different geographic scales from 1990 to 2019. We examined associations of prevalence with the sociodemographic index. RESULTS: Global prevalence of schizophrenia in 2019 was 23.60 million (95 % uncertainty interval: 20.23-27.15), with China, India, the USA and Indonesia accounting for 50.72 % of it. Global prevalence increased slightly from 1990 to 2019, with an annual percentage change of 0.03 % (95 % confidence interval 0.01-0.05). Regions with intermediate sociodemographic index accounted for greater proportion of prevalence increasing than regions with high index. Prevalence decreased among those born after 1979 in regions with intermediate sociodemographic index, whereas it consistently improved among all birth cohorts in regions with low index. Regardless of sociodemographic index, prevalence was highest among individuals 30-59 years old than younger or older groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of schizophrenia has shown small increases globally over the last three decades. The burden of disease is heavier in relatively less affluent regions, and it disproportionately affects individuals 30-59 years in all regions. Meanwhile, for regions with lower sociodemographic indices, the recent increasing burden among birth cohorts is more pronounced. These findings may help guide futural design of measures to manage or prevent schizophrenia in communities at higher risk.

Food insecurity and dementia risk in US older adults: Evidence from the 2013-2021 Panel Study of Income Dynamics.

OBJECTIVE: Growing research suggests that food insecurity is associated with worse cognitive functioning; however, prospective studies are needed to examine food insecurity and dementia risk. Using longitudinal and nationally representative data, we examined the effects of food insecurity on dementia risk among older adults. METHODS: Data came from 3,232 adults (≥65 years) from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Food insecurity was assessed biennially using the US Household Food Security Survey Module from 2015-2019. Probable dementia risk was assessed biennially using the Eight Item Interview to Differentiate Aging and Dementia (AD8) from 2017-2021. Inverse probability weighting and marginal structural models were used to account for the time-varying nature of food insecurity and sociodemographic and health confounders. RESULTS: After accounting for baseline and time-varying sociodemographic and health covariates, there was a two-fold higher association between food insecurity and probable dementia risk (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.12, 3.98). Results were robust to expanding the exposure to include marginal food security, and the outcome to include informant-reported memory loss. Furthermore, there was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association of food insecurity and probable dementia risk by sex, race and ethnicity, or participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program. DISCUSSION: Food insecurity is a modifiable social determinant of health. Interventions and policies are needed to reduce food insecurity and promote healthy aging for older adults.

Global temporal trends and projections of acute hepatitis E incidence among women of childbearing age: Age-period-cohort analysis 2021.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly among women of childbearing age (WCBA), who are at heightened risk for severe pregnancy-related complications. This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project future incidence of AHE in WCBA, providing insights crucial for targeted prevention and control strategies. METHODS: Data on AHE incidence from the Global Health data 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian APC model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories. RESULTS: Globally, AHE incidence numbers among WCBA rose from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined from 194.66 to 179.54 per 100,000 with a global net drift of -0.28%. However, high SDI regions showed a contrasting trend with a positive net drift of 0.02%. The age effect was consistent across SDI regions and globally, showing a decrease with advancing age, while unfavorable period and cohort effects were exhibited in high-SDI region. At the national level, locations exhibited varying trends of change. The BAPC model predicted a total of 3,759,384 AHE global cases in WCBA by 2030, with an expected mild increase in the ASIR. The outlook for the management and containment of AHE is grim in certain countries, including India. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed a complex epidemiological landscape of AHE in WCBA, with increasing global incidence numbers juxtaposed against a declining ASIR. The AHE burden by 2030 remain severe among WCBA. Young WCBA and high SDI region merit particular attention. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to curb the projected rise in AHE incidence and align with the 2030 WHO goals.

Exploring the Impact of Genetics in a Large Cohort of Moebius Patients by Trio Whole Exome Sequencing.

Moebius syndrome (MBS) is a rare congenital disorder characterized by non-progressive facial palsy and ocular abduction paralysis. Most cases are sporadic, but also rare familial cases with autosomal dominant transmission and incomplete penetrance/variable expressivity have been described. The genetic etiology of MBS is still unclear: de novo pathogenic variants in REV3L and PLXND1 are reported in only a minority of cases, suggesting the involvement of additional causative genes. With the aim to uncover the molecular causative defect and identify a potential genetic basis of this condition, we performed trio-WES on a cohort of 37 MBS and MBS-like patients. No de novo variants emerged in REV3L and PLXND1. We then proceeded with a cohort analysis to identify possible common causative genes among all patients and a trio-based analysis using an in silico panel of candidate genes. However, identified variants emerging from both approaches were considered unlikely to be causative of MBS, mainly due to the lack of clinical overlap. In conclusion, despite this large cohort, WES failed to identify mutations possibly associated with MBS, further supporting the heterogeneity of this syndrome, and suggesting the need for integrated omics approaches to identify the molecular causes underlying MBS development.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in China, 1990-2019, and predictions to 2030: Outlook for the future burden of disease.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019, along with assessing the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as to predict future trends. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in the incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess the independent effects of these elements. Incidence and mortality until 2030 were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach. RESULTS: During 1990-2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Strong effects of birth cohort and period on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality were observed. In terms of prediction, future non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China will continue to increase, while the mortality rate will decrease; for women, both the rates are projected to rise, but they will remain lower than men. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma burden is high in China, and it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Policymakers need to prioritize addressing the factors contributing to sex differences in disease burden, including variations in environmental exposures and lifestyles among men and women.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Acute Hepatitis B Incidence - China, 2005-2021.

Introduction: This study analyzed long-term trends in the incidence of acute hepatitis B (AHB) in China, focusing on age, period, and cohort effects on incidence. Methods: Data on AHB from 2005 to 2021 were extracted from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS) of China for analysis. Incidences of AHB were calculated by gender and age group using population denominators from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The annual average incidence of reported AHB in children aged 14 years and below in low, intermediate, and high endemic areas decreased from 1.65, 2.33, and 2.56 per 100,000 in 2005-2010 to 0.56, 0.58, and 0.48 per 100,000 in the 2016-2021 period. The 15-39-year age group in high endemic areas exhibited the most significant decline in incidence, dropping from 23.14 per 100,000 in 2005 to 4.59 per 100,000 in 2021 among males and from 10.62 per 100,000 to 3.21 per 100,000 among females. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated decreasing age, period, and cohort effects for reported AHB incidence in each endemic area, except for a slight upward trend in the 15-19-year age group and in the cohort born between 1951 and 1955. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a rapid decline in AHB incidence across various endemic areas since 2005. Children aged 14 years and below exhibited very low AHB incidences, while the incidence among individuals over 15 years was higher. To further reduce AHB incidence, hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) coverage should be enhanced among adolescents and adults.

Lumbar Epidural versus Caudal Epidural for Postoperative Analgesia After Lower Extremity Osteotomy Surgery in Pediatric Patients with Osteogenesis Imperfecta: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Analysis in a Single-Center Over 9 Years.

Purpose: Although pediatric epidural analgesia is a well-established technique used perioperatively. It is unclear whether a lumbar or caudal epidural is suitable for osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) patients, which may be associated with brittle bones and spine deformity. We conducted a retrospective study to investigate and compare the efficacy of the two continuous epidural techniques in pediatric patients undergoing lower extremity osteotomy surgery using a propensity score-matched analysis (PSMA). Patients and Methods: A total of 274 patients were included. Patients' age, weight, and height were adjusted using PSMA. 90 patients were matched for further analysis, with 45 patients in the lumbar epidural group (Group L) and 45 patients in the caudal epidural group (Group C). Pain scores were categorized into three grades: mild (0-3), moderate (4-6), and severe (7-10), and compared between the two groups. Additionally, operation time, operation site, blood loss, scoliosis, oral analgesic medications, and catheter or nerve-related complications were compared. Results: There were no significant differences in operation time, operation site, scoliosis, and blood loss between the two groups. The percentage of moderate to severe pain during movement was significantly higher in Group L than in Group C, with 37.5% versus 17.5% on the second-day post-operation (P=0.039). However, no statistically significant difference was observed on other days. Additionally, there was no significant difference in oral medication consumption and complications between the two groups. Conclusion: Both lumbar and caudal epidural analgesia can be effectively used postoperatively, and a caudal epidural should be considered where performing a lumbar epidural is challenging in OI pediatric patients.

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a rare genetic disorder that affects the body's connective tissues, particularly the bones and ligaments. It is caused by abnormalities in type I collagen, which leads to skeletal fragility known as "brittle bones". This fragility can cause various issues, including an increased risk of fractures from minor trauma, limb deformities, and unusual fractures such as vertebral compressions. OI patients may also experience spinal manifestations such as scoliosis and kyphosis. Lumbar epidural analgesia has been found to be effective in providing pain relief for surgeries that involve the lower extremities. Additionally, caudal epidural analgesia has also demonstrated its effectiveness in providing postoperative analgesia for surgeries that affect the lower limbs. However, there is still debate about the safety of epidural analgesia in patients with skeletal dysplasias, especially those with OI. Despite this uncertainty, our center, which was supported by the Rare Diseases Public Welfare Organization, has successfully used epidural analgesia since 2015 in the southern part of China for OI surgeries. We conducted a retrospective study to share our experiences of nine years of practice and compare lumbar epidural with caudal epidural using a propensity score matching to balance basic demographics. We also compared the presence of scoliosis. Our findings suggest that both lumbar and caudal epidural analgesia can be safely used in OI patients. In cases where lumbar punctures may pose challenges due to potential spine deformities, the caudal route can be an alternative.

The effects of sleep quality on loneliness among older adults: cohort analysis from the life course perspective.

BACKGROUND: Using cohort analysis to examine the effects of sleep quality on loneliness among older adults from the life course perspective. METHODS: The hierarchical age-period-cohort growth curve model was used to analyze the data from the 2005-2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). RESULTS: (1) Loneliness has a 'U' curve relationship with age, but with the rate of increase gradually slowing down. (2) There were significant differences in loneliness across birth cohorts, with younger cohorts having higher predicted loneliness than older cohorts at the same age. (3) The influence of different sleep quality on loneliness showed a trend of increasing with age. (4) There were no significant differences in the impact of sleep quality on loneliness in different cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified heterogeneity in loneliness, emphasising the need for a diversified intervention approach. Sleep quality has a protective effect on loneliness and is easy to assess, making it an important intervention tool. In addition, it is imperative to account for the influences of age and cohort effects when formulating intervention strategies.

Impact of hypertensive heart disease, risk factors, and age-period-cohort models across 204 nations and regions from 1990 to 2019: a global perspective from the 2019 global burden of disease study.

Background: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a major global public health issue resulting from hypertension-induced end-organ damage. The aim of this study was to examine the global impact, risk factors, and age-period-cohort (APC) model of HHD from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease were used to assess age-adjusted HHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality rates, and contributions of HHD risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). APC models were used to analyze global age, period, and cohort mortality trends for HHD. Results: In 2019, 18.6 million prevalent HHD cases led to 1.16 million fatalities and 21.51 million DALYs. Age-adjusted rates were 233.8 (95%UI = 170.5-312.9) per 100,000 individuals for prevalence, 15.2 (11.2-16.7) for mortality, and 268.2 (204.6-298.1) for DALYs. Regionally, the Cook Islands (703.1), Jordan (561.6), and Kuwait (514.9) had the highest age-standardized incidence of HHD in 2019. There were significant increases in HHD prevalence in Andean Latin America (16.7%), western sub-Saharan Africa (5.6%), and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (4.6%). Mortality rate varied widely among countries. Risk factors like elevated systolic blood pressure and high body mass index significant influenced DALY rates, especially in females. The APC model revealed an association between mortality rates and age, with a decreasing mortality risk over time and improved survival rates for a later birth cohort. Conclusions: Despite the reduction in prevalence, HHD remains a significant public health issue, particularly in nations with low sociodemographic indices. To alleviate the impact of HHD, prevention efforts should concentrate on the management of hypertension, weight loss, and lifestyle improvement.

Changes in gender disparities of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older adults in China: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: Depression is one of the most common mental disorders and substantially decreases socioemotional well-being and health-related quality of life. Analyzing temporal patterns in depressive symptoms can reveal emerging risks that require attention and have implications for mental health promotion. The present study disentangled age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on trends in depressive symptoms and their gender disparities among China's nationally representative samples of middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: Using four-wave data (2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018) from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (N = 65455), APC effects were quantified based on the hierarchical APC model. The 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10) was used to measure depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Depressive symptoms increased during late life and stabilized after reaching an advanced age. After further adjusting for individual characteristics, depressive symptoms exhibited a negative trend with advancing age. The mean levels of depressive symptoms remained stable during the study period. Depressive symptoms varied significantly across cohorts, with those born in 1949-1951 having the most severe depressive symptoms. Significant life-course and cohort variations existed in the gender gaps in depressive symptoms. Although women had higher mean scores on the CES-D-10 scale throughout the life course, the gender gaps in depressive symptoms gradually narrowed with age, as depressive symptoms decreased more rapidly among women. A widening trend in gender gaps in depressive symptoms was found among those born after the mid-1950s, mainly driven by a notable decline in depressive symptoms among men CONCLUSIONS: The convergence of living conditions between genders in late life, as a result of traditional Chinese culture, may have narrowed the gender gap in depressive symptoms. However, given the widening gender disparities in depressive symptoms among younger cohorts, more attention should be paid to women's mental health in the context of China's rapid socioeconomic development.

Treatment comparison of hydroxyurea versus ruxolitinib in essential thrombocythaemia: A matched-cohort analysis.

Hydroxyurea is the preferred first-line cytoreductive treatment for high-risk essential thrombocythaemia (ET), but many patients are intolerant or refractory to hydroxyurea. Ruxolitinib has been shown to improve symptoms in patients with ET. This post hoc analysis compared the clinical outcomes of patients with ET who received hydroxyurea only with those who switched from hydroxyurea to ruxolitinib due to intolerance/resistance to hydroxyurea. Patients with ET refractory/intolerant to hydroxyurea treated with ruxolitinib in a completed phase 2 study (HU-RUX) were propensity score matched with patients who received hydroxyurea only in an observational study (HU). Changes in leukocyte and platelet counts were reported at 6-month intervals during the 48-month follow-up. Following propensity score matching, 37 patients were included for analysis in each cohort. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) leukocyte and platelet counts at index were higher for HU-RUX versus HU (leukocyte: 9.3 [5.1] vs. 6.8 [3.1] × 109/L; platelet: 1027.4 [497.8] vs. 513.9 [154.7] × 109/L), both of which decreased significantly from index to 6 months through to 48 months in HU-RUX (mean [SD] change from index at 6 months-leukocyte: -1.8 [4.6] × 109/L; platelet: -391.7 [472.9] × 109/L; at 48 months-leukocyte: -3.8 [5.3] × 109/L; platelet: -539.0 [521.8] × 109/L), but remained relatively stable in HU (mean [SD] change from index at 6 months-leukocyte: 0 [1.8] × 109/L; platelet: -5.7 [175.3] × 109/L; at 48 months-leukocyte: -0.1 [2.7] × 109/L; platelet: -6.9 [105.1] × 109/L). In conclusion, these results demonstrate that switching from hydroxyurea to ruxolitinib in patients with ET who are intolerant or refractory to hydroxyurea could improve abnormal haematologic values similar to those who receive first-line hydroxyurea.

Levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease: Insights from cross-cohort prognostic analysis using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged levodopa treatment in Parkinson's disease (PD) often leads to motor complications, including levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID). Despite continuous levodopa treatment, some patients do not develop LID symptoms, even in later stages of the disease. OBJECTIVE: This study explores machine learning (ML) methods using baseline clinical characteristics to predict the development of LID in PD patients over four years, across multiple cohorts. METHODS: Using interpretable ML approaches, we analyzed clinical data from three independent longitudinal PD cohorts (LuxPARK, n = 356; PPMI, n = 484; ICEBERG, n = 113) to develop cross-cohort prognostic models and identify potential predictors for the development of LID. We examined cohort-specific and shared predictive factors, assessing model performance and stability through cross-validation analyses. RESULTS: Consistent cross-validation results for single and multiple cohort analyses highlighted the effectiveness of the ML models and identified baseline clinical characteristics with significant predictive value for the LID prognosis in PD. Predictors positively correlated with LID include axial symptoms, freezing of gait, and rigidity in the lower extremities. Conversely, the risk of developing LID was inversely associated with the occurrence of resting tremors, higher body weight, later onset of PD, and visuospatial abilities. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents interpretable ML models for dyskinesia prognosis with significant predictive power in cross-cohort analyses. The models may pave the way for proactive interventions against dyskinesia in PD by optimizing levodopa dosing regimens and adjunct treatments with dopamine agonists or MAO-B inhibitors, and by employing non-pharmacological interventions such as dietary adjustments affecting levodopa absorption for high-risk LID patients.

The burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among working-age people in the Western Pacific Region, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: The growing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in younger populations, particularly those of working age (15-64 years), has become a public health concern. Being diagnosed at a younger age implies a greater likelihood of accruing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) later in life due to potential progression to conditions such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to analyze NAFLD prevalence trends over three decades globally, regionally, and nationally, with a focus on age, period, and birth cohort associations. METHODS: Global, regional, and country time trends in the prevalence of NAFLD among working-age people from 1990 to 2019: Age-period-cohort analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of NAFLD prevalence in the working age population was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the prevalence within each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias (age effect), and period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). RESULTS: The global age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of NAFLD increased significantly from 1990 (14,477.6 per 100 000) to 2019 (19,837.6 per 100 000). In the Western Pacific, there were 42,903.8 NAFLD cases in 2019, 54.15% higher than in 1990. The ASPR also increased significantly in the region over the past three decades. At the national level, Palau had the highest ASPR while Brunei Darussalam had the lowest. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that in the Western Pacific, unlike globally, the risk of NAFLD declined after age 60-64 years. Relative to 1980-1989, incidence and DALY risks decreased but prevalence increased in subsequent birth cohorts. Future predictions indicate an upward trend in NAFLD burden, especially among women and medium (SDI) regions like China. CONCLUSION: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease imparts an immense health burden that continues to grow globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Our work highlights working age adults as an at-risk group and calls attention to socioeconomic gradients within Western Pacific countries. Upward future projections demonstrate that NAFLD prevention is an urgent priority.