The low-carbon risk society: Dilemmas of risk-risk tradeoffs in energy innovations, transitions, and climate policy.

As countries and communities grapple with climate change, they seek to rapidly decarbonize their economies and cultures. A low-carbon future will likely depend on more distributed solar energy, the electrification of mobility, and more efficient homes and buildings. But what emergent risks are evident within this low-carbon society? This exploratory study first reviews the existing literature to identify 75 risk-risk tradeoffs by their category, medium of distribution, and type. It builds on these 75 examples to apply a typology of Risk Offsets, Risk Substitution, Risk Transfer, and Risk Transformation. Based on extensive document analysis, it applies that typology to three low-carbon innovations: solar energy, battery electric vehicles, and building energy efficiency retrofits, identifying 36 distinct risk-risk tradeoffs in total. As such, the paper moves to discuss complexities and challenges in risk management. In doing so, it calls for a more refined risk assessment that better accounts for decision-making considerations such as the magnitude or probability of risk, size of population exposed, certainty in risk estimation, severity of adverse outcome, distributional considerations, and the timing of risk impacts. It also summarizes emergent research gaps. Risk management in the context of climate action becomes a three-dimensional chess game of weighing risk transmission, risk mediums, and risk categories.

Identifying risk factors for Jihadist terrorist offenders committing homicide: An explorative analysis using the European Database of Terrorist offenders.

Although many studies have examined various aspects of terrorism, relatively little is known about risk indicators associated with specific types of terrorist offences. To partly fill this void, this study explores differences on risk indicators of the Violent Extremism Risk Assessment tool (VERA-2R) between 21 Jihadist offenders who were convicted for homicide and a comparison group of 30 Jihadist offenders convicted for other Jihadist terrorist offences. In doing so, we use judicial data from the European Database of Terrorist offenders (EDT). The results reveal that a number of risk and protective indicators differ between both groups. Both terrorist offender groups often expressed grievances about perceived injustice, but the homicide group more frequently expressed anger, moral outrage, or hatred in response to the perceived injustice than the comparison group. The homicide group also identified their attacks more often than the comparison group, and were more actively engaged in planning and preparation them. Additionally, the homicide group was less often motivated to commit their terrorist offences by group belonging compared with the non-homicide group. With respect to the protective indicators, persons in the comparison group more often reject violence as a means to achieve goals. Although further research is necessary, the results from this study indicate that a differentiated approach might be needed for risk assessment and risk management of the terrorist offender population.

Temporal Trend in Lung Cancer Burden Attributed to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in Guangzhou, China.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. METHODS: The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the 'Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013' dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. RESULTS: The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 µg/m3 to 51.31 µg/m3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 (8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females) in 2005 to 16489.3 (11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females) in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.

Temporal Trend in Lung Cancer Burden Attributed to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in Guangzhou, China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the 'Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013' dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 μg/m3 to 51.31 μg/m3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 (8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females) in 2005 to 16489.3 (11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females) in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.</p>