Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.

The hotter the better? Climate change and voltinism of Spodoptera eridania estimated with different methods.

Substantial increases in global temperature are projected for the coming decades due to climate change. Considering that temperature has a strong influence on insect voltinism (i.e., number of generations per year), climate change may affect the population growth of insects, with potential consequences for food production. The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a multivoltine species native to the American tropics that causes severe damage to several crops. In this context, this study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the voltinism of S. eridania in southern Brazil. Current and future daily temperature data were combined with non-linear and degree-day models to estimate the voltinism of this pest. Under current climate conditions, the voltinism of S. eridania ranged from 2.9 to 9.2 generations, with fewer cohorts in colder regions and more in warmer ones. A higher number of generations was predicted for the future climate scenarios evaluated, reaching up to 12.1 annual generations in certain regions by 2070. Most of the variation in voltinism was explained by location (87.7%) and by the interaction between location and mathematical model (3.0%). The degree-day model estimated an increase in the number of generations in the entire study area, while the non-linear model predicted a decrease in voltinism in the warmer regions under future climate change scenarios. Given these differences between the predictions provided by degree-day and non-linear models, the selection of the best method to be used in climate change studies should be carried out carefully, considering how species respond to temperature. A considerable increase in the number of generations of S. eridania was projected for most of the study area under the climate change scenarios evaluated, suggesting a possible rise in pest incidence levels in the coming decades.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions.

The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

A temperature-dependent phenology model for the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae).

The greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum Westwood (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is a serious pest of many fruits, vegetables and ornamental crops in sub-tropical regions and in greenhouses worldwide. Potato is a secondary host of the species but the major threat from this insect in the Andean region for potato is the transmission by this insect of a crinivirus causing Potato yellow vein disease. Determination of the pest's temperature-dependent population growth potential is crucial knowledge for understanding the population dynamics and spread potential of the species and the diseases it can transmit, as well as for designing effective pest management strategies. Trialeurodes vaporariorum development, mortality and reproduction were studied at seven constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 32 °C. The Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software was used to fit nonlinear equations to the data and establish an overall phenology model to simulate life-table parameters based on temperature. In addition, life tables of T. vaporariorium were established at daily fluctuating temperature in two different environments: Cusco (5 °C-35 °C) and La Molina, Lima (13.7 °C-24.9 °C), and used to adjust and validate the model. The insect only completed its life cycle at constant temperatures above 15 °C and below 32 °C although the cycle was completed at daily fluctuating temperatures between 5 °C and 35 °C. The overall model portrayed population development within the temperature range of 14° to 32 °C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (= 1.14) at 23 °C. However, the model revealed poor convergence with life tables established at fluctuating temperatures indicating an influential effect of temperature fluctuations on the whitefly life history parameters, particularly on adult survival time and reproduction. Therefore, we adjusted the model for convergence with a single life table observed at fluctuating temperature. The adjusted model gave good predictions when compared with remaining observed life tables and published data. The adjusted model predicted population development within the temperature range of 11.5 °C-35.5 °C, and maximum population growth at around 24 °C with a finite rate of increase, λ, of 1.137 and a population doubling time of 5 days. The established process-based physiological model presented here for T. vaporariorum can be used for predicting the species distribution potential based on temperature worldwide and should prove helpful in adjusting pest management measures. Moreover, the information obtained will be used to predict the spread potential of potato yellow vein disease.