Bill shape variation in selected species in birds of prey.

At the top of many ecosystems, raptors, also known as birds of prey, hold major influence. They shape their surroundings through their powerful hunting skills and complex interactions with their environment. This study investigates the beak morphology of four prominent raptor species, Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Common buzzard (Buteo buteo), Peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and Common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus), found in Türkiye. By employing geometric morphometric methods, we investigate shape variations in the beaks of these species to unravel the adaptive significance of their cranial structures. This analysis reveals distinct beak morphologies among the studied raptors, reflecting adaptations to their feeding habits, hunting techniques and ecological niches. The results from Principal component analysis and Canonical variate analysis demonstrate significant differences in beak morphology between the Falconiformes and Accipitriformes clades, as well as among all three groups. The overall mean beak shapes of Golden Eagles are quite similar to Common Buzzards, with both species having longer beaks. In contrast, Falcons exhibit a distinctly different beak morphology, characterized by wider and shorter beaks. Changes in beak shape can lead to changes depending on the skull. It is thought that skull shape variations among predator families may have an impact on beak shape. These findings highlight the importance of integrating morphometric analyses with ecological insights to enhance our understanding of the evolutionary processes shaping raptor beak morphology.

Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models.

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021-2040 and 2061-2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

Isolation by environment and its consequences for range shifts with global change: Landscape genomics of the invasive plant common tansy.

Invasive species are a growing global economic and ecological problem. However, it is not well understood how environmental factors mediate invasive range expansion. In this study, we investigated the recent and rapid range expansion of common tansy across environmental gradients in Minnesota, USA. We densely sampled individuals across the expanding range and performed reduced representation sequencing to generate a dataset of 3071 polymorphic loci for 176 individuals. We used non-spatial and spatially explicit analyses to determine the relative influences of geographic distance and environmental variation on patterns of genomic variation. We found no evidence for isolation by distance but strong evidence for isolation by environment, indicating that environmental factors may have modulated patterns of range expansion. Land use classification and soils were particularly important variables related to population structure although they operated on different spatial scales; land use classification was related to broad-scale patterns and soils were related to fine-scale patterns. All analyses indicated a distinctive genetic cluster in the most recently invaded portion of the range. Individuals from the far northwestern range margin were separated from the remainder of the range by reduced migration, which was associated with environmental resistance. This portion of the range was invaded primarily in the last 15 years. Ecological niche models also indicated that this cluster was associated with the expansion of the niche. While invasion is often assumed to be primarily influenced by dispersal limitation, our results suggest that ongoing invasion and range shifts with climate change may be strongly affected by environmental heterogeneity.

Spatiotemporal analysis of equine infectious anemia and prediction of risk areas in Europe.

Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA) is a vector-borne persistent viral infection in equine animals. The EIA is characterized by recurrent fever, thrombocytopenia, depression, anemia, rapid weight loss, and lower body edema. Control of EIA is achieved through the elimination or isolation of infected animals, resulting in significant economic losses. In recent years, many countries in Europe have experienced outbreaks of EIA, which could potentially develop into a new wave of epidemic and pose a significant threat to the healthy development of the equine industry. This study utilized spatiotemporal analysis techniques and ecological niche modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical EIA outbreaks and predict risk areas for EIA occurrence in Europe. Spatiotemporal analysis results indicate that from 2005 to 2023, the EIA outbreaks in Europe exhibit five significant spatiotemporal clusters, with hotspots concentrated in southeastern France and northwestern Italy. Ecological niche modeling reveals that western, central, and southern Europe are high-risk areas for EIA outbreaks. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and horse density are important variables that influence the occurrence of EIA. The results of this study can provide decision-makers with valuable insights, helping with EIA monitoring and resource allocation.

Ecological niche contributes to the persistence of the western × glaucous-winged gull hybrid zone.

Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous-winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous-winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone.

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change.

Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 104 km2, representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.

Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.

Assessing climate niche similarity between persian fallow deer (Dama mesopotamica) areas in Iran.

The Persian fallow deer or Mesopotamian fallow Deer (Dama mesopotamica, Brook 1875), a species of significant ecological importance, had faced the threat of extinction in Iran. One conservation strategy involved the translocation of Persian deer to enclosed areas across Iran, where they were afforded protection from external threats and provided with essential care by human caretakers. While human caretakers diligently attend to their needs and mitigate external threats, climate variables may now become critical factors affecting population dynamics in enclosed areas. This study aims to assess the similarity in climate niches between the original area (Dez and Karkheh) of the Persian deer species and 11 newly enclosed areas. To achieve this, we employed climate data and ecological niche modeling (ENM) techniques to assess the variations in climate among 12 areas. We utilized the environmental equivalency test to determine whether the environmental spaces of area pairs exhibit significant differences and whether these spaces are interchangeable. Extrapolation analyses were also constructed in the next steps to explore climatic conditions in original fallow deer habitats that are non-analogous to those in other parts of Iran. Our results reveal significant disparities in climate conditions between the original and all translocated areas. Based on observations of population growth in specific enclosed areas where translocated deer populations have thrived, we hypothesize that the species may demonstrate a non-equilibrium distribution in Iran. Consequently, these new areas could potentially be regarded as part of the species' potential climate niche. Extrapolation analysis showed that for a significant portion of Iran, extrapolation predictions are highly uncertain and potentially unreliable for the translocation of Persian fallow deer. However, the primary objective of translocation efforts remains the establishment of self-sustaining populations of Persian deer capable of thriving in natural areas beyond enclosed areas, thus ensuring their long-term survival and contributing to preservation efforts. Evaluating the success of newly translocated species requires additional time, with varying levels of success observed. In cases where the growth rate of the species in certain enclosed areas falls below expectations, it is prudent to consider climate variables that may contribute to population declines. Furthermore, for future translocations, we recommend selecting areas with climate similarities to regions where the species has demonstrated growth rates.

Dynamic shifts of functional diversity through climate-Resilient strategies and farmland restoration in a mountain protected area.

Land-use land-cover (LULC) change contributes to major ecological impacts, particularly in areas undergoing land abandonment, inducing modifications on habitat structure and species distributions. Alternative land-use policies are potential solutions to alleviate the negative impacts of contemporary tendencies of LULC change on biodiversity. This work analyzes these tendencies in the Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal), an area representative of European abandoned mountain rural areas. We built ecological niche models for 226 species of vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) and vascular plants, using a consensus modelling approach available in the R package 'biomod2'. We projected the models to contemporary (2018) and future (2050) LULC scenarios, under four scenarios aiming to secure relevant ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation for 2050: an afforestation and a rewilding scenario, focused on climate-smart management strategies, and a farmland and an agroforestry recovery scenario, based on re-establishing human traditional activities. We quantified the influences of these scenarios on biodiversity through species habitat suitability changes for 2018-2050. We analyzed how these management strategies could influence indices of functional diversity (functional richness, functional evenness and functional dispersion) within the park. Habitat suitability changes revealed complementary patterns among scenarios. Afforestation and rewilding scenarios benefited more species adapted to habitats with low human influence, such as forests and open woodlands. The highest functional richness and dispersion was predicted for rewilding scenarios, which could improve landscape restoration and provide opportunities for the expansion and recolonization of forest areas by native species. The recovery of traditional farming and agroforestry activities results in the lowest values of functional richness, but these strategies contribute to complex landscape matrices with diversified habitats and resources. Moreover, this strategy could offer opportunities for fire suppression and increase landscape fire resistance. An integrative approach reconciling rewilding initiatives with the recovery of extensive agricultural and agroforestry activities is potentially an harmonious strategy for supporting the provision of ecosystem services while securing biodiversity conservation and functional diversity within the natural park.

Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe.

Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.

Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies.

Myotis originated during the Oligocene in Eurasia and has become one of the most diverse bat genera, with over 140 species. In the case of neotropical Myotis, there is a high degree of phenotypic conservatism. This means that the taxonomic and geographic limits of several species are not well understood, which constrains detailed studies on their ecology and evolution and how to effectively protect these species. Similar to other organisms, bats may respond to climate change by moving to different areas, adapting to new conditions, or going extinct. Ecological niche models have become established as an efficient and widely used method for interpolating (and sometimes extrapolating) species' distributions and offer an effective tool for identifying species conservation requirements and forecasting how global environmental changes may affect species distribution. How species respond to climate change is a key point for understanding their vulnerability and designing effective conservation strategies in the future. Thus, here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of two phylogenetically related species, Myotis ruber and Myotis keaysi. The results showed that the species are influenced by changes in temperature, and for M. ruber, precipitation also becomes important. Furthermore, M. ruber appears to have been more flexible to decreases in temperature that occurred in the past, which allowed it to expand its areas of environmental suitability, unlike M. keaysi, which decreased and concentrated these areas. However, despite a drastic decrease in the spatial area of environmental suitability of these species in the future, there are areas of potential climate stability that have been maintained since the Pleistocene, indicating where conservation efforts need to be concentrated in the future.

Is the perception of odour pleasantness shared across cultures and ecological conditions? Evidence from Amazonia, East Africa, New Guinea, Malaysia and Poland.

What makes an odour pleasant or unpleasant? The inherent properties of the constituent chemical compounds, or the nose of the beholder, driven by idiosyncratic differences and culture-specific learning? Here, 582 individuals, including Tanzanian Hadza hunter-gatherers, Amazonian Tsimane' horticulturalists, Yali from the Papuan highlands and two industrialized populations (Poles, Malaysians), rated the pleasantness of 15 odour samples. We find considerable similarities in odour assessments across cultures, but our data do not fully support a claim regarding the universality of smell preferences. Despite cross-cultural similarities in olfactory assessments, probably driven by odour properties, we suggest that odour availability in ecological and cultural niches bears an undeniable effect on human odour preferences.

Effect of Altitude Gradients on the Spatial Distribution Mechanism of Soil Bacteria in Temperate Deciduous Broad-Leaved Forests.

Soil bacteria are an important part of the forest ecosystem, and they play a crucial role in driving energy flow and material circulation. Currently, many uncertainties remain about how the composition and distribution patterns of bacterial communities change along altitude gradients, especially in forest ecosystems with strong altitude gradients in climate, vegetation, and soil properties. Based on dynamic site monitoring of the Baiyun Mountain Forest National Park (33°38'-33°42' N, 111°47'-111°51' E), this study used Illumina technology to sequence 120 soil samples at the site and explored the spatial distribution mechanisms and ecological processes of soil bacteria under different altitude gradients. Our results showed that the composition of soil bacterial communities varied significantly between different altitude gradients, affecting soil bacterial community building by influencing the balance between deterministic and stochastic processes; in addition, bacterial communities exhibited broader ecological niche widths and a greater degree of stochasticity under low-altitude conditions, implying that, at lower altitudes, community assembly is predominantly influenced by stochastic processes. Light was the dominant environmental factor that influenced variation in the entire bacterial community as well as other taxa across different altitude gradients. Moreover, changes in the altitude gradient could cause significant differences in the diversity and community composition of bacterial taxa. Our study revealed significant differences in bacterial community composition in the soil under different altitude gradients. The bacterial communities at low elevation gradients were mainly controlled by stochasticity processes, and bacterial community assembly was strongly influenced by deterministic processes at middle altitudes. Furthermore, light was an important environmental factor that affects differences. This study revealed that the change of altitude gradient had an important effect on the development of the soil bacterial community and provided a theoretical basis for the sustainable development and management of soil bacteria.

Ecology and geography of Cache Valley virus assessed using ecological niche modeling.

BACKGROUND: Cache Valley virus (CVV) is an understudied Orthobunyavirus with a high spillover transmission potential due to its wide geographical distribution and large number of associated hosts and vectors. Although CVV is known to be widely distributed throughout North America, no studies have explored its geography or employed computational methods to explore the mammal and mosquito species likely participating in the CVV sylvatic cycle. METHODS: We used a literature review and online databases to compile locality data for CVV and its potential vectors and hosts. We linked location data points with climatic data via ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographical range of CVV and hotspots of transmission risk. We used background similarity tests to identify likely CVV mosquito vectors and mammal hosts to detect ecological signals from CVV sylvatic transmission. RESULTS: CVV distribution maps revealed a widespread potential viral occurrence throughout North America. Ecological niche models identified areas with climate, vectors, and hosts suitable to maintain CVV transmission. Our background similarity tests identified Aedes vexans, Culiseta inornata, and Culex tarsalis as the most likely vectors and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) as the most likely host sustaining sylvatic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: CVV has a continental-level, widespread transmission potential. Large areas of North America have suitable climate, vectors, and hosts for CVV emergence, establishment, and spread. We identified geographical hotspots that have no confirmed CVV reports to date and, in view of CVV misdiagnosis or underreporting, can guide future surveillance to specific localities and species.

Erratum: Analysis of the current risk of Leishmania infantum transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1399772.].

Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae.

Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to Myrothamnus (M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for M. flabellifolius, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for M. moschatus. M. flabellifolius demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to M. moschatus. Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for M. flabellifolius will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for M. moschatus will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that M. flabellifolius will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.

Non-indigenous species and their realized niche in tidepools along the South-East Pacific coast.

Non-indigenous species (NIS) have the potential to colonize and become established in a wide range of coastal habitats. Species with broad environmental tolerances can quickly adapt to local conditions and expand their niches along environmental gradients, and even colonize habitats with extreme abiotic conditions. Here we report and document the distribution of eight marine NIS (four seaweed and four invertebrate species) found in tidepools along a 3000 km latitudinal gradient along the Pacific coast of Chile (18.4°S to 41.9°S). The seaweed NIS Codium fragile, Capreolia implexa, Schottera nicaeensis and Mastocarpus latissimus were mostly distributed towards high latitudes (i.e., more southerly locations), where temperatures in tidepools were low. The invertebrate NIS Anemonia alicemartinae, Ciona robusta, Bugula neritina and Bugulina flabellata were more common towards low latitudes, where high temperatures were registered in the tidepools. Across the intertidal gradient, seaweed NIS were mostly found in pools in the mid and low intertidal zone, while invertebrate NIS occurred mostly in pools from the mid and upper intertidal zones. The realized niche spaces of NIS (based on the Outlying Mean Index, OMI) in the study area were mainly influenced by environmental conditions of temperature and salinity (along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients), while other tidepool characteristics (depth, surface area, exposition, and complexity) only had minor effects. Five of the eight NIS exhibited a realized niche space coinciding with the average tidepool environmental conditions, while marginal niches were occupied by species with affinities for specific temperatures and salinities along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients. Our results indicate that physiological tolerances to environmental factors play a fundamental role in the distribution of seaweed and invertebrate NIS in tidepools along the Chilean coast. This study confirms that tidepools offer suitable conditions for some seaweed and invertebrate NIS, potentially facilitating their invasion into new natural habitats.

Argopistes Motschulsky from Madagascar with descriptions of six new species (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Galerucinae, Alticini).

The revision of the flea beetle genus Argopistes Motschulsky, 1860 in Madagascar is provided. Six new species are described: Argopistesjanakmoravecorumsp. nov., A.laterosinuatussp. nov., and A.vadoni from the northern area; A.jenisisp. nov., A.keiserisp. nov., and A.seyrigisp. nov. from the central area. A new synonym of Argopistesbrunneus Weise, 1895 is established: A.sexguttatus Weise, 1895, syn. nov., since A.sexguttatus is shown to be a chromatic form of A.brunneus. A diagnostic key of the seven Malagasy Argopistes species is provided, with photographs of the habitus, median lobe of the aedeagus, and spermatheca. Finally, based on known occurrences, the current suitable areas for this flea beetle genus in Madagascar are estimated using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) techniques.

Conservation applications of niche modeling: Native and naturalized ferns may compete for limited Hawaiian dryland habitat.

Premise: Competition from naturalized species and habitat loss are common threats to native biodiversity and may act synergistically to increase competition for decreasing habitat availability. We use Hawaiian dryland ferns as a model for the interactions between land-use change and competition from naturalized species in determining habitat availability. Methods: We used fine-resolution climatic variables and carefully curated occurrence data from herbaria and community science repositories to estimate the distributions of Hawaiian dryland ferns. We quantified the degree to which naturalized ferns tend to occupy areas suitable for native species and mapped the remaining available habitat given land-use change. Results: Of all native species, Doryopteris angelica had the lowest percentage of occurrences of naturalized species in its suitable area while D. decora had the highest. However, all Doryopteris spp. had a higher percentage overlap, while Pellaea ternifolia had a lower percentage overlap, than expected by chance. Doryopteris decora and D. decipiens had the lowest proportions (<20%) of suitable area covering native habitat. Discussion: Areas characterized by shared environmental preferences of native and naturalized ferns may decrease due to human development and fallowed agricultural lands. Our study demonstrates the value of place-based application of a recently developed correlative ecological niche modeling approach for conservation risk assessment in a rapidly changing and urbanized island ecosystem.

Forecasting habitat suitability and niche shifts of two global maize pests: Ostrinia furnacalis and Ostrinia nubilalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae).

BACKGROUND: Ostrinia furnacalis (ACB) and Ostrinia nubilalis (ECB) are devastating pests of the agricultural crop maize worldwide. However, little is known about their potential distribution and niche shifts during their global invasion. Since long-term selection to past climate variability has shaped their historical niche breadth, such niche shifts may provide an alternative basis for understanding their responses to present and future climate change. By integrating the niche unfilling, stability, and expansion situations into a single framework, our study quantifies the patterns of niche shift in the spatial distribution of these two pests during the different periods. RESULTS: Our results show that the overall suitable habitats of ACB and ECB in the future decrease but highly and extremely suitable habitat will become more widespread, suggesting these two insects may occur more frequently in specific regions. Compared with Southeast Asia and Australia, the ACB niche in China exhibited expansion rather than unfilling. For ECB, initial niches have a tendency to be retained in Eurasia despite there also being potential for expansion in North America. The niche equivalency and similarity test results further indicate that niche shifts were common for both ACB and ECB in different survival regions during their colonization of new habitat and their suitable habitat changes during the paleoclimate were associated with climatic changes. CONCLUSIONS: These findings improve our understanding of the ecological characteristics of ACB and ECB worldwide, and will be useful in the development of prevention and control strategies for two insect pests worldwide. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.