Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models.

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021-2040 and 2061-2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

Ecological niche contributes to the persistence of the western × glaucous-winged gull hybrid zone.

Hybrid zones occur in nature when populations with limited reproductive barriers overlap in space. Many hybrid zones persist over time, and different models have been proposed to explain how selection can maintain hybrid zone stability. More empirical studies are needed to elucidate the role of ecological adaptation in maintaining stable hybrid zones. Here, we investigated the role of exogenous factors in maintaining a hybrid zone between western gulls (Larus occidentalis) and glaucous-winged gulls (L. glaucescens). We used ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche similarity tests to quantify and examine the ecological niches of western gulls, glaucous-winged gulls, and their hybrids. We found evidence of niche divergence between all three groups. Our results support the bounded superiority model, providing further evidence that exogenous selection favoring hybrids may be an important factor in maintaining this stable hybrid zone.

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change.

Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 104 km2, representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.

Assessing climate niche similarity between persian fallow deer (Dama mesopotamica) areas in Iran.

The Persian fallow deer or Mesopotamian fallow Deer (Dama mesopotamica, Brook 1875), a species of significant ecological importance, had faced the threat of extinction in Iran. One conservation strategy involved the translocation of Persian deer to enclosed areas across Iran, where they were afforded protection from external threats and provided with essential care by human caretakers. While human caretakers diligently attend to their needs and mitigate external threats, climate variables may now become critical factors affecting population dynamics in enclosed areas. This study aims to assess the similarity in climate niches between the original area (Dez and Karkheh) of the Persian deer species and 11 newly enclosed areas. To achieve this, we employed climate data and ecological niche modeling (ENM) techniques to assess the variations in climate among 12 areas. We utilized the environmental equivalency test to determine whether the environmental spaces of area pairs exhibit significant differences and whether these spaces are interchangeable. Extrapolation analyses were also constructed in the next steps to explore climatic conditions in original fallow deer habitats that are non-analogous to those in other parts of Iran. Our results reveal significant disparities in climate conditions between the original and all translocated areas. Based on observations of population growth in specific enclosed areas where translocated deer populations have thrived, we hypothesize that the species may demonstrate a non-equilibrium distribution in Iran. Consequently, these new areas could potentially be regarded as part of the species' potential climate niche. Extrapolation analysis showed that for a significant portion of Iran, extrapolation predictions are highly uncertain and potentially unreliable for the translocation of Persian fallow deer. However, the primary objective of translocation efforts remains the establishment of self-sustaining populations of Persian deer capable of thriving in natural areas beyond enclosed areas, thus ensuring their long-term survival and contributing to preservation efforts. Evaluating the success of newly translocated species requires additional time, with varying levels of success observed. In cases where the growth rate of the species in certain enclosed areas falls below expectations, it is prudent to consider climate variables that may contribute to population declines. Furthermore, for future translocations, we recommend selecting areas with climate similarities to regions where the species has demonstrated growth rates.

Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies.

Myotis originated during the Oligocene in Eurasia and has become one of the most diverse bat genera, with over 140 species. In the case of neotropical Myotis, there is a high degree of phenotypic conservatism. This means that the taxonomic and geographic limits of several species are not well understood, which constrains detailed studies on their ecology and evolution and how to effectively protect these species. Similar to other organisms, bats may respond to climate change by moving to different areas, adapting to new conditions, or going extinct. Ecological niche models have become established as an efficient and widely used method for interpolating (and sometimes extrapolating) species' distributions and offer an effective tool for identifying species conservation requirements and forecasting how global environmental changes may affect species distribution. How species respond to climate change is a key point for understanding their vulnerability and designing effective conservation strategies in the future. Thus, here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of two phylogenetically related species, Myotis ruber and Myotis keaysi. The results showed that the species are influenced by changes in temperature, and for M. ruber, precipitation also becomes important. Furthermore, M. ruber appears to have been more flexible to decreases in temperature that occurred in the past, which allowed it to expand its areas of environmental suitability, unlike M. keaysi, which decreased and concentrated these areas. However, despite a drastic decrease in the spatial area of environmental suitability of these species in the future, there are areas of potential climate stability that have been maintained since the Pleistocene, indicating where conservation efforts need to be concentrated in the future.

Ecology and geography of Cache Valley virus assessed using ecological niche modeling.

BACKGROUND: Cache Valley virus (CVV) is an understudied Orthobunyavirus with a high spillover transmission potential due to its wide geographical distribution and large number of associated hosts and vectors. Although CVV is known to be widely distributed throughout North America, no studies have explored its geography or employed computational methods to explore the mammal and mosquito species likely participating in the CVV sylvatic cycle. METHODS: We used a literature review and online databases to compile locality data for CVV and its potential vectors and hosts. We linked location data points with climatic data via ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographical range of CVV and hotspots of transmission risk. We used background similarity tests to identify likely CVV mosquito vectors and mammal hosts to detect ecological signals from CVV sylvatic transmission. RESULTS: CVV distribution maps revealed a widespread potential viral occurrence throughout North America. Ecological niche models identified areas with climate, vectors, and hosts suitable to maintain CVV transmission. Our background similarity tests identified Aedes vexans, Culiseta inornata, and Culex tarsalis as the most likely vectors and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) as the most likely host sustaining sylvatic transmission. CONCLUSIONS: CVV has a continental-level, widespread transmission potential. Large areas of North America have suitable climate, vectors, and hosts for CVV emergence, establishment, and spread. We identified geographical hotspots that have no confirmed CVV reports to date and, in view of CVV misdiagnosis or underreporting, can guide future surveillance to specific localities and species.

Conservation applications of niche modeling: Native and naturalized ferns may compete for limited Hawaiian dryland habitat.

Premise: Competition from naturalized species and habitat loss are common threats to native biodiversity and may act synergistically to increase competition for decreasing habitat availability. We use Hawaiian dryland ferns as a model for the interactions between land-use change and competition from naturalized species in determining habitat availability. Methods: We used fine-resolution climatic variables and carefully curated occurrence data from herbaria and community science repositories to estimate the distributions of Hawaiian dryland ferns. We quantified the degree to which naturalized ferns tend to occupy areas suitable for native species and mapped the remaining available habitat given land-use change. Results: Of all native species, Doryopteris angelica had the lowest percentage of occurrences of naturalized species in its suitable area while D. decora had the highest. However, all Doryopteris spp. had a higher percentage overlap, while Pellaea ternifolia had a lower percentage overlap, than expected by chance. Doryopteris decora and D. decipiens had the lowest proportions (<20%) of suitable area covering native habitat. Discussion: Areas characterized by shared environmental preferences of native and naturalized ferns may decrease due to human development and fallowed agricultural lands. Our study demonstrates the value of place-based application of a recently developed correlative ecological niche modeling approach for conservation risk assessment in a rapidly changing and urbanized island ecosystem.

Global transboundary transmission path and risk of Mpox revealed with Least Cost Path model.

OBJECTIVES: The recent surge of Mpox outbreaks in multiple countries has garnered global attention. As of July 12, 2023, there have been 88,288 reported cases of Mpox worldwide. Although genetic variation was not found to be the cause of the epidemic outbreak, the reasons for its rapid spread remain unclear. METHODS: Using the niche method, this study identified high-risk regions for Mpox and determined that human factors are the primary contributors to global risks. To further investigate, a travel network resistance surface was created based on various modes of transportation and was combined with sea, airline, highway, and railway routes to construct the least cost path for human travel networks in different risk areas. RESULTS: The results indicated that high-risk regions for Mpox are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, with large risk ranges and high-risk values. The least cost path revealed three primary transmission paths rely on developed transportation networks, including internal transmission in North America, Europe-Africa, and Europe-Asia-Africa. These findings suggest that human activities, facilitated by developed travel networks, remain the main contributing factor to the spread. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, based on the Mpox epidemic report, this study conducted risk prediction and driving factor analysis on Mpox. The research results indicate that human use of transportation for long-distance activities is a key factor leading to the rapid spread of the virus. Subsequently, we focused on studying the global transmission pathways of Mpox and revealed several transmission pathways with high global population migration rates by constructing the LCPs between different high-risk areas. This study also emphasizes the importance of applying early monitoring data of Mpox to model risk prediction in controlling emerging infectious diseases, providing a new perspective for controlling Mpox and similar diseases.

Investigating the effects of species niche shifts on the potential distribution of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) by using global occurrence data.

Invasive species may occupy quite different environments in their invaded areas to native ones, which may intensively interfere with predicting potential distribution through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Here, we take the tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a tomato pest, as an example to investigate this topic. We analyzed niche expansion, stability, unfilling, and Schoener's D by principal component analysis (PCA) ordination method to examine its realized niche shifts and to explore how ENM approaches are affected by niche shifts. We used 5 datasets: Asian, African, European, South American, and global occurrence records in this study. Results showed that high niche unfilling for the species' invaded areas in Asia (20%), Africa (12%), and Europe (37%), possibly due to T. absoluta being in the early stages of invasion. High niche expansion was observed in Asia (38%) and Europe (19%), implying that some European and Asian populations had reached new climatic areas. African niche had the most niche stability (94%) and was equivalent to the native one in climate space (PCA ordination method), but the n-dimensional climate space framework showed that they were different. When projecting the native model to Asia and Europe, the native model performed poorly, implying that the niche shifts affected the transferability of the native model. ENM based on global data outperformed than other models, and our results suggested that T. absoluta has a large potential distribution in Asia, Mexico, South Europe, the United States, and Australia. Meanwhile, we recommend updating ENMs based on the species' invasion stage.

Ecological niche divergence or ecological niche partitioning in a widespread Neotropical bird lineage.

Ecological niche divergence is generally considered to be a facet of evolution that may accompany geographic isolation and diversification in allopatry, contributing to species' evolutionary distinctiveness through time. The null expectation for any two diverging species in geographic isolation is that of niche conservatism, wherein populations do not rapidly shift to or adapt to novel environments. Here, I test ecological niche divergence for a widespread, pan-American lineage, the avian genus of martins (Progne). The genus Progne includes migrant and resident species, as well as geographically restricted taxa and widespread, intercontinentally distributed taxa, thus providing an ideal group in which to study the nature of niche divergence within a broad geographic mosaic. I obtained distributional information for the genus from publicly available databases and created ecological niche models for each species to create pairwise comparisons of environmental space. I combined these data with the most up-to-date phylogeny of Progne currently available to examine the patterns of niche evolution within the genus. I found limited evidence for niche divergence across the breeding distributions of Progne, and much stronger support for niche conservatism with patterns of niche partitioning. The ancestral Progne had a relatively broad ecological niche, like extant basal Progne lineages, and several geographically localized descendant species occupy only portions of this larger ancestral niche. I recovered strong evidence of breeding niche divergence for four of 36 taxon pairs but only one of these divergent pairs involved two widespread species (Southern Martin P. elegans vs. Gray-breasted Martin P. chalybea). Potential niche expansion from the ancestral species was observed in the most wide-ranging present-day species, namely the North American Purple Martin P. subis and P. chalybea. I analyzed populations of P. subis separately, as a microcosm of Progne evolution, and again found only limited evidence of niche divergence. This study adds to the mounting evidence for niche conservatism as a dominant feature of diversifying lineages, and sheds light on the ways in which apparently divergent niches may arise through allopatry while not involving any true niche shifts through evolutionary time. Even taxa that appear unique in terms of habitat or behavior may not be diversifying with respect to their ecological niches, but merely partitioning ancestral niches among descendant taxa.

Prediction and validation of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Serbia and its projection to 2080.

Animal and human dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, being one of the most important diseases in Europe. In Serbia, there are extensive studies reporting the presence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens, mainly in the north of the country, where the human population is concentrated and where there is a presence of culicid mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has proven to be a very good tool to predict the appearance of parasitosis in very diverse areas, with distant orography and climatologies at a local, continental, and global level. Taking these factors into account, the objective of this study was to develop an environmental model for Serbia that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for the risk of infection with Dirofilaria spp. with which the predictive power of existing studies is improved. A wide set of variables related to the transmission of the parasite were used. The potential number of generations of D. immitis and the ecological niche modeling method (ENM) were used to estimate the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens. The highest probability of infection risk was located in the north of the country, and the lowest in the southern regions, where there is more orographic relief and less human activity. The model was corroborated with the location of D. immitis-infected dogs, with 89.28% of the country having a high probability of infection. In addition, it was observed that the percentage of territory with optimal habitat for Culex spp. will increase significantly between now and 2080. This new model can be used as a tool in the control and prevention of heartworm disease in Serbia, due to its high predictive power, and will serve to alert veterinary and health personnel of the presence of the disease in the animal and human population, respectively.

Range-Wide Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Provide Insights into the Evolutionary History of the Mongolian Racerunner (Eremias argus) in Northeast Asia.

The Mongolian racerunner, Eremias argus, is a small lizard endemic to Northeast Asia that can serve as an excellent model for investigating how geography and past climate change have jointly influenced the evolution of biodiversity in this region. To elucidate the processes underlying its diversification and demography, we reconstructed the range-wide phylogeographic pattern and evolutionary trajectory, using phylogenetic, population genetic, landscape genetic, Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction and ecological niche modeling approaches. Phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA cyt b gene revealed eight lineages that were unbounded by geographic region. The genetic structure of E. argus was mainly determined by geographic distance. Divergence dating indicated that E. argus and E. brenchleyi diverged during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. E. argus was estimated to have coalesced at~0.4351 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 19). Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analysis revealed out-of-Inner Mongolia and rapid colonization events from the end of the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the expanded suitable range of the Last Glacial Maximum. Pre-Last Glacial Maximum growth of population is presented for most lineages of E. argus. The Glacial Maximum contraction model and the previous multiple glacial refugia hypotheses are rejected. This may be due to an increase in the amount of climatically favorable habitats in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, E. argus barbouri most likely represents an invalid taxon. The present study is the first to report a range-wide phylogeography of reptiles over such a large region in Northeast Asia. Our results make a significant contribution towards understanding the biogeography of the entire Northeast Asia.

Ecological niche modeling analysis (Cx. pipiens), potential risk and projection of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Greece.

Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.

Predicting Increased Incidence of Common Antibiotic-Resistant and Antibiotic-Associated Pathogens Using Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling.

The Centers for Disease Control estimates antibiotic-associated pathogens result in 2.8 million infections and 38,000 deaths annually in the United States. This study applies species distribution modeling to elucidate the impact of environmental determinants of human infectious disease in an era of rapid global change. We modeled methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridioides difficile using 31 publicly accessible bioclimatic, healthcare, and sociodemographic variables. Ensemble models were created from 8 unique statistical and machine learning algorithms. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition codes, we identified 305,528 diagnoses of methicillin-resistant S.aureus and 302,001 diagnoses of C.difficile presence. Three environmental factors - average maximum temperature, specific humidity, and agricultural land density - emerged as major predictors of increased methicillin-resistant S.aureus and C.difficile presence; variables representing healthcare availability were less important. Species distribution modeling may be a powerful tool for identifying areas at increased risk for disease presence and have important implications for disease surveillance systems.

The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap.

Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm-endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator-prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm-ectotherm pair typifying a predator-prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = -1.82%, 4.5 = -4.62%, 8.5 = -7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm-endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.

Ecological niche divergence or ecological niche partitioning in a widespread Neotropical bird lineage.

Ecological niche divergence is generally considered to be a facet of evolution that may accompany geographic isolation and diversification in allopatry, contributing to species' evolutionary distinctiveness through time. The null expectation for any two diverging species in geographic isolation is that of niche conservatism, wherein populations do not rapidly shift to or adapt to novel environments. Here, I test ecological niche divergence for a widespread, pan-American lineage, the avian genus of martins (Progne). Despite containing species with distributions that go from continent-spanning to locally endemic, I found limited evidence for niche divergence across the breeding distributions of Progne, and much stronger support for niche conservatism with patterns of niche partitioning. The ancestral Progne had a relatively broad ecological niche, similar to extant basal Progne lineages, and several geographically localized descendant species occupy only portions of the larger ancestral Progne niche. I recovered strong evidence of breeding niche divergence for four of 36 taxon pairs but only one of these divergent pairs involved two widespread, continental species (Southern Martin P. elegans vs. Gray-breasted Martin P. chalybea). Potential niche expansion from the ancestral species was observed in the most wide-ranging present-day species, namely the North American Purple Martin P. subis and P. chalybea. I analyzed populations of P. subis separately, as a microcosm of Progne evolution, and again found only limited evidence of niche divergence. This study adds to the mounting evidence for niche conservatism as a dominant feature of diversifying lineages. Even taxa that appear unique in terms of habitat or behavior may still not be diversifying with respect to their ecological niches, but merely partitioning ancestral niches among descendant taxa.

Environment predicts Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis lineage distribution and zones of recombination in South Africa.

The amphibian-infecting chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is widespread throughout Africa and is linked to declines of populations and species across the continent. While it is well established that the lineage of Bd encodes traits which determine disease severity, knowledge around how lineages are distributed according to environmental envelope is unclear. We here studied the distribution of Bd in South Africa based on the two lineages found, BdGPL and BdCAPE, in terms of their genome and environmental envelope statistically associated with their distribution. We used Bd surveillance data from published studies, as well as data collected during fieldwork from across South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini with samples collected along a transect spanning most of South Africa from Lesotho to the west coast. We utilized lineage-typing qPCR to resolve the spatial distribution of BdGPL and BdCAPE across South Africa and used the resulting surveillance data to create a predictive ecological niche model for Bd lineages in South Africa. Phylogenomic analyses were performed on isolates sourced from across the transect. We show that BdGPL demonstrates a strong isolation by distance suggestive of stepping-stone dispersal, while BdCAPE showed two distinct clusters within their genomic structure that appear geographically and temporally clustered, indicating two separate invasions. Our predictive niche model revealed that the two lineages tended to occur in different ecotypes; BdGPL was associated with lower altitude, arid regions while BdCAPE occurred across cooler, higher altitude environs. Niche predictions identified a zone of lineage contact, where genomics identified inter-lineage recombinants. We argue that this zone of recombination should be prioritized for disease surveillance as it is a potential hotspot for the evolution of variants of amphibian chytrid with novel traits that may be epidemiologically relevant.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics.

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling of the Alashan Pit Viper (Gloydius cognatus; Reptilia, Viperidae) in Northwest China and Adjacent Areas.

The joint impacts of historical geological events and Quaternary climatic oscillations in Northwest China on species evolution have been examined extensively in plant under a phylogeographic perspective. However, animal phylogeographic analyses in this region are still limited. The Alashan pit viper, Gloydius cognatus, occurs primarily in arid Northwest China and adjacent areas. Based on variation at two mtDNA genes (ND4 and Cytb) in 27 individuals representing 24 populations, the spatial genetic structure and demographic history of G. cognatus were examined across its geographic range. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two well-supported allopatric clades (each with two distinct subclades/lineages), distributed across the southern (Qaidam Basin, Lanzhou Basin, and Zoige Basin [S1]; Loess Plateau [S2]) and northern (Ily Basin [N1]; Junggar Basin and Mongolian Plateau [N2]) regions. AMOVA analysis demonstrated that over 76% of the observed genetic variation was related to these lineage splits, indicating substantial genetic differentiation among the four lineages. A strong pattern of isolation-by-distance across the sampling populations suggested that geographic distance principally shaped the genetic structure. The four lineages diverged by 0.9-2.2% for the concatenated data, which were estimated to have coalesced ~1.17 million years ago (Mya), suggesting that the expansions of the Badain Jaran, Tengger, and Mu Us deserts during the Xixiabangma glaciation likely interrupted gene flow and triggered the observed divergence in the southern and northern regions. Subsequently, the early Pleistocene integration of the Yellow River and associated deserts expansion promoted the differentiation of S1 and S2 lineages (~0.9 Mya). Both mitochondrial evidence and ecological niche modeling (ENM) reject the signature of demographic and range contractions during the LGM for G. cognatus. In addition, ENM predicts that the suitable habitat of G. cognatus will contract in the future. As such, the conservation and management of ESUs should be a priority. Our findings provide the first insights on the lineage diversification and population dynamics of the Alashan pit viper in relation to geological history and Pleistocene climatic oscillations in arid Northwest China.

Revisión histórica, distribución potencial y estado de conservación de la rata endémica de México Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae) / Historical review, potential distribution, and conservation of the Mexican endemic rat Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae)

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como "En Peligro" de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as "Endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.