Cox regression with doubly truncated responses and time-dependent covariates: the impact of innovation on firm survival.

The creation of new firms is an important incentive for the economic growth of a country, since it generates employment, it encourages the competition, and promotes innovation. In this work, we investigate the survival of Spanish firms which were created since 2001 and closed down between 2004 and 2012. The information was gathered from Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC), a survey with a focus the technological innovation in Spanish firms. In particular, a Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was used in order to identify and quantify the determinants of the risk of exit for the firm. The selection bias due to the interval sampling for the firms was corrected by using methods for doubly truncated lifetimes. Interestingly, it is seen how the correction for the selection bias changes both the size and the statistical significance of the effects provided by standard Cox regression.

A ZSG-DEA model with factor constraint cone-based decoupling analysis for household CO2 emissions: a case study on Sichuan province.

This study employed an input-output approach to measure household CO2 emissions (HCEs) in Sichuan province, China from 2010 to 2017. A ZSG-DEA model with a factor constraint cone was built, to allocate such emission allowances to provincial subordinate cities and investigate their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Using Tapio decoupling analysis, this study further examined the nexus between regional economic performance and HCEs. The results indicated that HCEs in Sichuan province initially increased and then decreased, peaking at 69.60 million tons in 2015. The structure of the HCEs changed from coal- to petroleum-dominated from 2010 to 2017. Indirect emissions from consumption-related sectors accounted for 60% of the total HCEs, including food, transportation, communication, and accommodation. The capital city of Chengdu, with the largest economic scale, overwhelmingly dominated the total household CO2 emissions, whereas Panzhihua, a heavy-industry-dominated city, had the highest HCEs  per capita. The Tapio decoupling results suggested that seven cities, led by Chengdu, had strong decoupling statuses, indicating that these cities performed well in the trade-off between economic growth and HCEs reduction. These results indicated that HCEs had a head effect centered on cities with advanced urbanization, but there was a virtuous cycle between CO2 emissions reduction and economic development. Given the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of HCEs, differentiated policymaking on emissions reduction is the key to facilitating green transformations.

US FDA Drug Approvals are Persistent and Polycyclic: Insights into Economic Cycles, Innovation Dynamics, and National Policy.

It is challenging to elucidate the effects of changes in external influences (such as economic or policy) on the rate of US drug approvals. Here, a novel approach-termed the Chronological Hurst Exponent (CHE)-is proposed, which hypothesizes that changes in the long-range memory latent within the dynamics of time series data may be temporally associated with changes in such influences. Using the monthly number FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) approvals from 1939 to 2019 as the data source, it is demonstrated that the CHE has a distinct S-shaped structure demarcated by an 8-year (1939-1947) Stagnation Period, a 27-year (1947-1974) Emergent Period, and a 45-year (1974-2019) Saturation Period. Further, dominant periodicities (resolved via wavelet analyses) are identified during the most recent 45-year CHE Saturation Period at 17, 8 and 4 years; thus, US drug approvals have been following a Juglar/Kuznet mid-term cycle with Kitchin-like bursts. As discussed, this work suggests that (1) changes in extrinsic factors (e.g., of economic and/or policy origin) during the Emergent Period may have led to persistent growth in US drug approvals enjoyed since 1974, (2) the CHE may be a valued method to explore influences on time series data, and (3) innovation-related economic cycles exist (as viewed via the proxy metric of US drug approvals).

Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

Effects of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis on National Health Indicators: Results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between economics and health has been of great interest throughout the years. The accumulated data is not sufficient enough to carry out long-term studies from the viewpoint of morbidity, although Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) was carried out yearly since 1998 in Korea. Thus, we investigated the effect of the 2008 global economic crisis on health indicators of Korea. METHODS: Health indicators were selected by paired t-test based on 2007 and 2009 KNHANES data. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking, drinking, exercise, education, income, working status, and stress were used as confounding factors, which were analyzed with logistic and probit analyses. Validation was done by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and probit analyses results of 2007-2012 KNHANES data. RESULTS: Among several health indicators, the prevalence of hypertension and stress perception was higher after the economic crisis. Factors related with higher hypertension prevalence include older age, male gender, higher BMI, no current tobacco use, recent drinking, lower education levels, and stress perception. Factors related with more stress perception were younger age, female gender, current smoking, lower education levels, and lower income. GDP growth rates, a macroeconomic indicator, are inversely associated with hypertension prevalence with a one-year lag, and also inversely associated with stress perception without time lag. CONCLUSION: The economic crisis increased the prevalence of hypertension and stress perception. In the case of GDP growth rate change, hypertension was an inversely lagging indicator and stress perception was an inversely-related coincident indicator.

Effects of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis on National Health Indicators: Results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey / 가정의학회지

BACKGROUND: The relationship between economics and health has been of great interest throughout the years. The accumulated data is not sufficient enough to carry out long-term studies from the viewpoint of morbidity, although Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) was carried out yearly since 1998 in Korea. Thus, we investigated the effect of the 2008 global economic crisis on health indicators of Korea. METHODS: Health indicators were selected by paired t-test based on 2007 and 2009 KNHANES data. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking, drinking, exercise, education, income, working status, and stress were used as confounding factors, which were analyzed with logistic and probit analyses. Validation was done by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and probit analyses results of 2007-2012 KNHANES data. RESULTS: Among several health indicators, the prevalence of hypertension and stress perception was higher after the economic crisis. Factors related with higher hypertension prevalence include older age, male gender, higher BMI, no current tobacco use, recent drinking, lower education levels, and stress perception. Factors related with more stress perception were younger age, female gender, current smoking, lower education levels, and lower income. GDP growth rates, a macroeconomic indicator, are inversely associated with hypertension prevalence with a one-year lag, and also inversely associated with stress perception without time lag. CONCLUSION: The economic crisis increased the prevalence of hypertension and stress perception. In the case of GDP growth rate change, hypertension was an inversely lagging indicator and stress perception was an inversely-related coincident indicator.

Unemployment and substance outcomes in the United States 2002-2010.

BACKGROUND: The economic shock of 2008-2009 provided an opportunity to study the robustness of observed statistical associations between unemployment and problematic substance use. METHODS: Data from 405,000 non-institutionalized adult participants in the 2002 to 2010 U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health were used to compare substance outcomes among unemployed and employed persons. Association of unemployment with substance outcomes was examined for the years 2002-2004, 2005-2007, 2008, and 2009-2010, corresponding to periods prior to and after the economic downturn of 2008. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, urban/rural residence, current DSM-IV Major Depression, and local county unemployment rates. RESULTS: Higher rates of past month tobacco and illicit drug use, heavy alcohol use, and past-year drug or alcohol abuse/dependence were found among the unemployed. Markedly increased unemployment in 2009-2010 did not moderate the association between substance outcomes and employment. This association was not confounded by sex, age group, or race/ethnicity for tobacco and illicit drugs, although it varied for alcohol outcomes among 18-25 year-olds. Results based on retrospective data regarding marijuana use in the period prior to unemployment suggest its use was associated with future job loss. CONCLUSIONS: Employment status was strongly and robustly associated with problematic use of substances. Prevention and treatment interventions are warranted for a group whose employment and resulting insurance status may impair access to much needed health care.