Seroprevalence and risk factors for Lassa virus infection in South-West and North-Central Nigeria: a community-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the level of exposure to Lassa virus (LASV) in at-risk communities allows for the administration of effective preventive interventions to mitigate epidemics of Lassa fever. We assessed the seroprevalence of LASV antibodies in rural and semiurban communities of two cosmopolitan cities in Nigeria with poorly understood Lassa epidemiology. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in ten communities located in the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Abuja, and Ikorodu Local Government Area (LGA), Lagos, from February 2nd to July 5th, 2022. Serum samples collected from participants were analyzed for IgG and IgM antibodies using a ReLASV® Pan-Lassa NP IgG/IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. A questionnaire administered to participants collected self-reported sociodemographic and LASV exposure information. Seroprevalence of LASV IgG/IgM was estimated overall, and by study site. Univariate and multivariate log-binomial models estimated unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for site-specific risk factors for LASV seropositivity. Grouped Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) was used for variable selection for multivariate analysis. RESULTS: A total of 628 participants with serum samples were included in the study. Most participants were female (434, 69%), married (459, 73%), and had a median age of 38 years (interquartile range 28-50). The overall seroprevalence was 27% (171/628), with a prevalence of 33% (126/376) in Abuja and 18% (45/252) in Lagos. Based on site-specific grouped LASSO selection, enrollment in the dry season (vs. wet; aPR, 95% CI: 1.73, 1.33-2.24), reported inconsistent washing of fruits and vegetables (aPR, 95% CI: 1.45, 1.10-1.92), and a positive malaria rapid test (aPR, 95% CI: 1.48, 1.09-2.00) were independently associated with LASV seropositivity in Abuja, whereas, only a self-reported history of rhinorrhea (PR, 95% CI: 2.21, 1.31-3.72) was independently associated with Lassa seropositivity in Lagos. CONCLUSIONS: The LASV seroprevalence was comparable to that in other areas in Nigeria. Our findings corroborate those from other studies on the importance of limiting human exposure to rodents and focusing on behavioral factors such as poor hygiene practices to reduce exposure to LASV.

Biofilms inactivate the free-living stage of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the most destructive pathogen for vertebrate diversity.

Emerging infectious diseases threaten biodiversity and human health. Many emerging pathogens have aquatic life stages and all immersed substrates have biofilms on their surface, i.e., communities of microorganisms producing a gelatinous matrix. However, the outcome of the interactions between environmental biofilms and pathogens is poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that biofilms reduce the survival of the most impactful pathogen for vertebrate diversity, the invasive chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Effects on its zoospores varied with biofilm composition in controlled settings and biofilm compositional variation also coincided with divergent impacts of chytridiomycosis on amphibian populations in nature. Our results suggest that biofilms form a biotic component of ecosystem resistance to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis by reducing environmental transmission, and that they could be used to develop nature-based technologies to limit the impacts and spread of this invasive chytrid fungus. Our study warrants further research into the interactions between environmental biofilms and pathogenic and/or invasive micro-organisms.

Preparing the developing world for the next pandemic: Evidence from China's R&D blueprint for emerging infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: With double pressures of endemic and imported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), China's ability to detect, prevent and control the unknown virus is of regional and global interest. This study aimed to establish an R&D Blueprint for EIDs in China by identifying the list of prioritized diseases and medical countermeasures (MCMs) that need proactive actions for the next pandemic. METHODS: The process mainly referred to the World Health Organization's prioritization methodology, supplemented by pipeline landscape, rapid risk assessment and multi-dimensional analysis. The study included five steps: 1) identifying potential pathogens, 2) screening into the long list, 3) prioritizing the long list, 4) identifying the final list and 5) generating an R&D Blueprint. RESULTS: China's R&D Blueprint identified 14 viral pathogens and two virus groups (i.e., Influenza HxNy and Coronavirus X) for proactive and representative MCM development. At least one diagnostic candidate in preclinical study, and one therapeutic and one vaccine candidate in Phase I/II clinical trials for each prioritized pathogen were suggested to be developed as strategic national stockpiles. Various generalized and innovative platform technologies were also highlighted for enhancing overall capacities of EID preparedness and response, covering basic research, experiment, detection, prevention and control, surveillance and information sharing. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in developing countries that established an R&D Blueprint of prioritized diseases, countermeasures and technologies. Our findings could help to drive pre-emptive scientific and technological actions toward emerging pathogens that may cause the next epidemic and could provide evidence-based strategies for developing countries to establish their national health research agenda tailored to health and research context under resource-limited settings.

Kinetics of Viral Shedding for Outbreak Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Modeling Approach to SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron Infection.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have highlighted the importance of viral shedding using cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction to understand the epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, it is rare to elucidate the transition kinetics of Ct values from the asymptomatic or presymptomatic phase to the symptomatic phase before recovery using individual repeated Ct values. OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a novel Ct-enshrined compartment model to provide a series of quantitative measures for delineating the full trajectories of the dynamics of viral load from infection until recovery. METHODS: This Ct-enshrined compartment model was constructed by leveraging Ct-classified states within and between presymptomatic and symptomatic compartments before recovery or death among people with infections. A series of recovery indices were developed to assess the net kinetic movement of Ct-up toward and Ct-down off recovery. The model was applied to (1) a small-scale community-acquired Alpha variant outbreak under the "zero-COVID-19" policy without vaccines in May 2021 and (2) a large-scale community-acquired Omicron variant outbreak with high booster vaccination rates following the lifting of the "zero-COVID-19" policy in April 2022 in Taiwan. The model used Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for parameter estimation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying Ct cutoff values to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The kinetic indicators revealed a marked difference in viral shedding dynamics between the Alpha and Omicron variants. The Alpha variant exhibited slower viral shedding and lower recovery rates, but the Omicron variant demonstrated swifter viral shedding and higher recovery rates. Specifically, the Alpha variant showed gradual Ct-up transitions and moderate recovery rates, yielding a presymptomatic recovery index slightly higher than 1 (1.10), whereas the Omicron variant had remarkable Ct-up transitions and significantly higher asymptomatic recovery rates, resulting in a presymptomatic recovery index much higher than 1 (152.5). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the chosen Ct values of 18 and 25 across different recovery phases. Regarding the impact of vaccination, individuals without booster vaccination had a 19% higher presymptomatic incidence rate compared to those with booster vaccination. Breakthrough infections in boosted individuals initially showed similar Ct-up transition rates but higher rates in later stages compared to nonboosted individuals. Overall, booster vaccination improved recovery rates, particularly during the symptomatic phase, although recovery rates for persistent asymptomatic infection were similar regardless of vaccination status once the Ct level exceeded 25. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides new insights into dynamic Ct transitions, with the notable finding that Ct-up transitions toward recovery outpaced Ct-down and symptom-surfacing transitions during the presymptomatic phase. The Ct-up against Ct-down transition varies with variants and vaccination status. The proposed Ct-enshrined compartment model is useful for the surveillance of emerging infectious diseases in the future to prevent community-acquired outbreaks.

Coccidioidomycosis seasonality in California: a longitudinal surveillance study of the climate determinants and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal dynamics, 2000-2021.

Background: Coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the western USA, exhibits seasonal patterns that are poorly understood, including periods of strong cyclicity, aseasonal intervals, and variation in seasonal timing that have been minimally characterized, and unexplained as to their causal factors. Coccidioidomycosis incidence has increased markedly in recent years, and our limited understanding of intra- and inter-annual seasonality has hindered the identification of important drivers of disease transmission, including climate conditions. In this study, we aim to characterize coccidioidomycosis seasonality in endemic regions of California and to estimate the relationship between drought conditions and coccidioidomycosis seasonal periodicity and timing. Methods: We analysed data on all reported incident cases of coccidioidomycosis in California from 2000 to 2021 to characterize seasonal patterns in incidence, and conducted wavelet analyses to assess the dominant periodicity, power, and timing of incidence for 17 counties with consistently high incidence rates. We assessed associations between seasonality parameters and measures of drought in California using a distributed lag nonlinear modelling framework. Findings: All counties exhibited annual cyclicity in incidence (i.e., a dominant wavelet periodicity of 12 months), but there was considerable heterogeneity in seasonal strength and timing across regions and years. On average, 12-month periodicity was most pronounced in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and Central Coast. Further, the annual seasonal cycles in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the Southern Inland regions occurred earlier than those in coastal and northern counties, yet the timing of annual cycles became more aligned among counties by the end of the study period. Drought conditions were associated with a strong attenuation of the annual seasonal cycle, and seasonal peaks became more pronounced in the 1-2 years after a drought ended. Interpretation: We conclude that drought conditions do not increase the risk of coccidioidomycosis onset uniformly across the year, but instead promote increased risk concentrated within a specific calendar period (September to December). The findings have important implications for public health preparedness, and for how future shifts in seasonal climate patterns and extreme events may impact spatial and temporal coccidioidomycosis risk. Funding: National Institutes of Health.

Mpox Discourse on Twitter by Sexual Minority Men and Gender-Diverse Individuals: Infodemiological Study Using BERTopic.

BACKGROUND: The mpox outbreak resulted in 32,063 cases and 58 deaths in the United States and 95,912 cases worldwide from May 2022 to March 2024 according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Like other disease outbreaks (eg, HIV) with perceived community associations, mpox can create the risk of stigma, exacerbate homophobia, and potentially hinder health care access and social equity. However, the existing literature on mpox has limited representation of the perspective of sexual minority men and gender-diverse (SMMGD) individuals. OBJECTIVE: To fill this gap, this study aimed to synthesize themes of discussions among SMMGD individuals and listen to SMMGD voices for identifying problems in current public health communication surrounding mpox to improve inclusivity, equity, and justice. METHODS: We analyzed mpox-related posts (N=8688) posted between October 2020 and September 2022 by 2326 users who self-identified on Twitter/X as SMMGD and were geolocated in the United States. We applied BERTopic (a topic-modeling technique) on the tweets, validated the machine-generated topics through human labeling and annotations, and conducted content analysis of the tweets in each topic. Geographic analysis was performed on the size of the most prominent topic across US states in relation to the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) social climate index. RESULTS: BERTopic identified 11 topics, which annotators labeled as mpox health activism (n=2590, 29.81%), mpox vaccination (n=2242, 25.81%), and adverse events (n=85, 0.98%); sarcasm, jokes, and emotional expressions (n=1220, 14.04%); COVID-19 and mpox (n=636, 7.32%); government or public health response (n=532, 6.12%); mpox symptoms (n=238, 2.74%); case reports (n=192, 2.21%); puns on the naming of the virus (ie, mpox; n=75, 0.86%); media publicity (n=59, 0.68%); and mpox in children (n=58, 0.67%). Spearman rank correlation indicated significant negative correlation (ρ=-0.322, P=.03) between the topic size of health activism and the UCLA LGB social climate index at the US state level. CONCLUSIONS: Discussions among SMMGD individuals on mpox encompass both utilitarian (eg, vaccine access, case reports, and mpox symptoms) and emotionally charged (ie, promoting awareness, advocating against homophobia, misinformation/disinformation, and health stigma) themes. Mpox health activism is more prevalent in US states with lower LGB social acceptance, suggesting a resilient communicative pattern among SMMGD individuals in the face of public health oppression. Our method for social listening could facilitate future public health efforts, providing a cost-effective way to capture the perspective of impacted populations. This study illuminates SMMGD engagement with the mpox discourse, underscoring the need for more inclusive public health programming. Findings also highlight the social impact of mpox: health stigma. Our findings could inform interventions to optimize the delivery of informational and tangible health resources leveraging computational mixed-method analyses (eg, BERTopic) and big data.

Can Marburg virus be sexually transmitted?

Background and Aim: Marburg virus (MARV) is a highly virulent virus of animal origin and the cause of a lethal infection (known as Marburg virus disease [MVD]) with a case-fatality ratio ranging from 24% to 90%. While the potential nonzoonotic routes of virus spread are plausible, the risk is not yet fully determined. Here, we described the ways by which MARV spreads within the human population focusing mainly on the potential of sexual transmission. In addition, we addressed some measures that should be taken to minimize the risk of sexual spread of the virus and proposed a future research agenda on the risk of sexual transmission. Methods: For this perspective, we searched four electronic databases (i.e., PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) and included the most relevant studies published since the first identification of the virus in 1967. We used "Marburg virus," "Marburg virus disease," "Seminal fluid," "Sexually-transmitted virus," "Sexual transmission," and "Emerging infectious disease" as keywords. Results: MARV is transmitted to humans via both direct and indirect contact with infected animals (most importantly bats) and individuals who have recently been diagnosed with or died of the disease. The virus transmission through sexual contact has been previously suspected (exclusively from men to their sexual partners). Studies suggest that this virus persists predominantly in testicular Sertoli cells within seminiferous tubules over a relatively long period and is released through seminal fluid (in some reports >200 days post onset of infection) both could potentially threaten sexual health. In addition to men, women could theoretically, although less probably contribute to the sexual transmission of the disease. Conclusion: MVD, however, rarely, could be passed through sex, and men appear to be the main carriers in this regard. Taking preventive countermeasures and practicing safe sex are recommended to reduce the risk of interhuman transmission.

Global epidemiology of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus in human and animals: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Since the initial identification of the Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS) in ticks in rural areas of China in 2009, the virus has been increasingly isolated from a diverse array of hosts globally, exhibiting a rising trend in incidence. This study aims to conduct a systematic analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of SFTS cases, alongside an examination of the infection rates across various hosts, with the objective of addressing public concerns regarding the spread and impact of the disease. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, an exhaustive search was conducted across multiple databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Medline, CNKI, WanFang, and CQVIP. The literature search was confined to publications released between January 1, 2009, and May 29, 2023. The study focused on collating data pertaining to animal infections under natural conditions and human infection cases reported. Additionally, species names were unified using the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database. The notification rate, notification death rate, case fatality rate, and infection rates (or MIR) were assessed for each study with available data. The proportions were pooled using a generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM). Meta-regressions were conducted for subgroup analysis. This research has been duly registered with PROSPERO, bearing the registration number CRD42023431010. Findings: We identified 5492 studies from database searches and assessed 238 full-text studies for eligibility, of which 234 studies were included in the meta-analysis. For human infection data, the overall pooled notification rate was 18.93 (95% CI 17.02-21.05) per ten million people, the overall pooled notification deaths rate was 3.49 (95% CI 2.97-4.10) per ten million people, and the overall pooled case fatality rate was 7.80% (95% CI 7.01%-8.69%). There was an increasing trend in notification rate and deaths rate, while the case fatality rate showed a significant decrease globally. Regarding animal infection data, among 94 species tested, 48 species were found to carry positive nucleic acid or antibodies. Out of these, 14 species were classified under Arthropoda, while 34 species fell under Chordata, comprising 27 Mammalia and 7 Aves. Interpretation: This systematic review and meta-analysis present the latest global report on SFTS. In terms of human infections, notification rates and notification deaths rates are on the rise, while the case fatality rate has significantly decreased. More SFTSV animal hosts have been discovered than before, particularly among birds, indicating a potentially broader transmission range for SFTSV. These findings provide crucial insights for the prevention and control of SFTS on a global scale. Funding: None.

In vivo examination of pathogenicity and virulence in environmentally isolated Vibrio vulnificus.

Human exposure to Vibrio vulnificus, a gram-negative, halophilic environmental pathogen, is increasing. Despite this, the mechanisms of its pathogenicity and virulence remain largely unknown. Each year, hundreds of infections related to V. vulnificus occur, leading to hospitalization in 92% of cases and a mortality rate of 35%. The infection is severe, typically contracted through the consumption of contaminated food or exposure of an open wound to contaminated water. This can result in necrotizing fasciitis and the need for amputation of the infected tissue. Although several genes (rtxA1, vvpE, and vvhA) have been implicated in the pathogenicity of this organism, a defined mechanism has not been discovered. In this study, we examine environmentally isolated V. vulnificus strains using a zebrafish model (Danio rerio) to investigate their virulence capabilities. We found significant variation in virulence between individual strains. The commonly used marker gene of disease-causing strains, vcgC, did not accurately predict the more virulent strains. Notably, the least virulent strain in the study, V. vulnificus Sept WR1-BW6, which tested positive for vcgC, vvhA, and rtxA1, did not cause severe disease in the fish and was the only strain that did not result in any mortality. Our study demonstrates that virulence varies greatly among different environmental strains and cannot be accurately predicted based solely on genotype.

Archival mitogenomes identify invasion by the Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis CAPE lineage caused an African amphibian extinction in the wild.

Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are influenced by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Deterioration in the population of the micro-endemic Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) occurred after the construction of a hydropower dam, implicating habitat modification in this species decline. Population recovery followed habitat augmentation; however, a subsequent outbreak of chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) led to the spray toad's extinction in the wild. We show using spatiotemporal surveillance and mitogenome assembly of Bd from archived toad mortalities that the outbreak was caused by invasion of the BdCAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage BdGPL. Molecular dating reveals an emergence of BdCAPE across southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the spray toad's extinction. That our post-outbreak surveillance of co-occurring amphibian species in the Udzungwa Mountains shows widespread infection by BdCAPE yet no signs of ill-health or decline suggests these other species can tolerate Bd when environments are stable. We conclude that, despite transient success in mitigating the impact caused by dams' construction, invasion by BdCAPE caused the ultimate die-off that led to the extinction of the Kihansi spray toad.

Emerging Microorganisms and Infectious Diseases: One Health Approach for Health Shared Vision.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are newly emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases identifies the following as emerging infectious diseases: SARS, MERS, COVID-19, influenza, fungal diseases, plague, schistosomiasis, smallpox, tick-borne diseases, and West Nile fever. The factors that should be taken into consideration are the genetic adaptation of microbial agents and the characteristics of the human host or environment. The new approach to identifying new possible pathogens will have to go through the One Health approach and omics integration data, which are capable of identifying high-priority microorganisms in a short period of time. New bioinformatics technologies enable global integration and sharing of surveillance data for rapid public health decision-making to detect and prevent epidemics and pandemics, ensuring timely response and effective prevention measures. Machine learning tools are being more frequently utilized in the realm of infectious diseases to predict sepsis in patients, diagnose infectious diseases early, and forecast the effectiveness of treatment or the appropriate choice of antibiotic regimen based on clinical data. We will discuss emerging microorganisms, omics techniques applied to infectious diseases, new computational solutions to evaluate biomarkers, and innovative tools that are useful for integrating omics data and electronic medical records data for the clinical management of emerging infectious diseases.

Optimizing the detection of emerging infections using mobility-based spatial sampling.

Timely and precise detection of emerging infections is imperative for effective outbreak management and disease control. Human mobility significantly influences the spatial transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Spatial sampling, integrating the spatial structure of the target, holds promise as an approach for testing allocation in detecting infections, and leveraging information on individuals' movement and contact behavior can enhance targeting precision. This study introduces a spatial sampling framework informed by spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility data, aiming to optimize the allocation of testing resources for detecting emerging infections. Mobility patterns, derived from clustering point-of-interest and travel data, are integrated into four spatial sampling approaches at the community level. We evaluate the proposed mobility-based spatial sampling by analyzing both actual and simulated outbreaks, considering scenarios of transmissibility, intervention timing, and population density in cities. Results indicate that leveraging inter-community movement data and initial case locations, the proposed Case Flow Intensity (CFI) and Case Transmission Intensity (CTI)-informed spatial sampling enhances community-level testing efficiency by reducing the number of individuals screened while maintaining a high accuracy rate in infection identification. Furthermore, the prompt application of CFI and CTI within cities is crucial for effective detection, especially in highly contagious infections within densely populated areas. With the widespread use of human mobility data for infectious disease responses, the proposed theoretical framework extends spatiotemporal data analysis of mobility patterns into spatial sampling, providing a cost-effective solution to optimize testing resource deployment for containing emerging infectious diseases.

How Global Collaboration Can Improve the Medical Countermeasure Life Cycle for Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

Infectious disease outbreaks have become increasingly common and require global partnership for adequate preparedness and response. During outbreaks, medical countermeasures (MCMs)-vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics-need to reach patients quickly. Recent outbreaks exemplify that products with regulatory approval can expand access and reach patients quicker than investigational products. Unfortunately, insufficient funding globally and differences in funders' prioritization puts gains and future efforts at risk. Of primary concern is (1) lack of a feasible regulatory path and clinical capability to achieve regulatory approval for new MCMs for many diseases; and (2) the need for partners with the mandate, funding, and capabilities to support long-term sustainment of manufacturing capability and stockpiling of licensed products. Without collaboration, the global community runs the risk of losing the capabilities built through years of investment and being underprepared to combat future threats. Synergies between funders are critical to create long-term sustainment of products to ensure access.

Exploring the Care Experiences Among Clinical Staffing During Emerging Infectious Disease: From the COVID-19 Pandemic Approach.

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), one of the most significant recent emerging infectious diseases, has evolved into a global pandemic, resulting in an unprecedented public health crisis with substantial morbidity. The aim of this study was to investigate the care experiences of nursing staff during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A qualitative, exploratory interview study. This study was conducted from August 2022 to January 2023. Participants were recruited from a medical center in northern Taiwan. A purposive sampling approach was employed to select the participants, and in-depth interviews were conducted with a total of 30 individuals. The collected data were analyzed using content analysis. RESULTS: The findings of this study revealed five themes that summarized the care experiences of participants during the COVID-19 pandemic, enhanced nursing competence in pandemic mitigation, adherence to clear safety measures, effective adaptation to the stress of the "unknown," and recognition of the meaning of the pandemic mitigation experience. CONCLUSION: This study informs pandemic readiness for nurses and policy enhancement. Medical institutions and governments must prioritize policies ensuring staffing, PPE access, and mental health support. Educators and administrators should elevate on-the-job crisis management training. Future planning should cater to Taiwanese nurses' needs during unforeseen crises such as COVID-19.

Epidemiology of Syphilis in Tokyo from 2019 to 2022: a Descriptive Epidemiological Study.

In recent years, the incidence of syphilis in Tokyo has increased. This descriptive epidemiological study aimed to elucidate the status of syphilis within the city. Data regarding age, sex, disease stage, and presumed sexual partners of patients with syphilis reported in Tokyo were compiled and analyzed. A total of 9,419 patients with syphilis were diagnosed between 2019 and 2022. A sharp rise was observed in the number of reported cases from 2021 to 2022. Between 2020 and 2022, the number of women in their 20s who developed syphilis rapidly increased by more than 3-fold. Furthermore, the number of pregnant women with syphilis increased the end of 2022. Despite a rapid increase in the number of young women with syphilis, the incidence of congenital syphilis has remained stable. This stability may be attributed to the early detection of syphilis during pregnancy, facilitated by the high rate of antenatal checkups in Tokyo. However, the growing incidence of syphilis among young women could potentially lead to a rise congenital syphilis cases in the future. Therefore, public health strategies should include educational initiatives targeting high-risk populations and adolescents, along with early and appropriate testing and treatment to prevent the progression of syphilis.

Expert consensus on One Health for establishing an enhanced and integrated surveillance system for key infectious diseases.

China has been continuously improving its monitoring methods and strategies to address key infectious diseases (KIDs). After the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in 2003, China established a comprehensive reporting system for infectious diseases (IDs) and public health emergencies. The relatively lagging warning thresholds, limited warning information, and outdated warning technology are insufficient to meet the needs of comprehensive monitoring for modern KIDs. Strengthening early monitoring and warning capabilities to enhance the public health system has become a top priority, with increasing demand for early warning thresholds, information, and techniques, thanks to constant innovation and development in molecular biology, bioinformatics, artificial intelligence, and other identification and analysis technologies. A panel of 31 experts has recommended a fourth-generation comprehensive surveillance system targeting KIDs (41 notifiable diseases and emerging IDs). The aim of this surveillance system is to systematically monitor the epidemiology and causal pathogens of KIDs in hosts such as humans, animals, and vectors, along with associated environmental pathogens. By integrating factors influencing epidemic spread and risk assessment, the surveillance system can serve to detect, predict, and provide early warnings for the occurrence, development, variation, and spread of known or novel KIDs. Moreover, we recommend comprehensive ID monitoring based on the fourth-generation surveillance system, along with a data-integrated monitoring and early warning platform and a consortium pathogen detection technology system. This series of considerations is based on systematic and comprehensive monitoring across multiple sectors, dimensions, factors, and pathogens that is supported by data integration and connectivity. This expert consensus will provides an opportunity for collaboration in various fields and relies on interdisciplinary application to enhance comprehensive monitoring, prediction, and early warning capabilities for the next generation of ID surveillance. This expert consensus will serve as a reference for ID prevention and control as well as other related activities.

Bayesian inference for the onset time and epidemiological characteristics of emerging infectious diseases.

Background: Emerging infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global public health. Timely detection and response are crucial in mitigating the spread of such epidemics. Inferring the onset time and epidemiological characteristics is vital for accelerating early interventions, but accurately predicting these parameters in the early stages remains challenging. Methods: We introduce a Bayesian inference method to fit epidemic models to time series data based on state-space modeling, employing a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model for transmission dynamics analysis. Our approach uses the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method to estimate key epidemiological parameters, including the onset time, the transmission rate, and the recovery rate. The PMCMC algorithm integrates the advantageous aspects of both MCMC and particle filtering methodologies to yield a computationally feasible and effective means of approximating the likelihood function, especially when it is computationally intractable. Results: To validate the proposed method, we conduct case studies on COVID-19 outbreaks in Wuhan, Shanghai and Nanjing, China, respectively. Using early-stage case reports, the PMCMC algorithm accurately predicted the onset time, key epidemiological parameters, and the basic reproduction number. These findings are consistent with empirical studies and the literature. Conclusion: This study presents a robust Bayesian inference method for the timely investigation of emerging infectious diseases. By accurately estimating the onset time and essential epidemiological parameters, our approach is versatile and efficient, extending its utility beyond COVID-19.

Evaluating Two Sampling Methods for Mycoplasma Bovis Diagnosis in American Bison (Bison bison).

Mycoplasma bovis is a bacterial pathogen endemic to cattle. In the early 2000s, M. bovis emerged as a cause of respiratory disease in American bison (Bison bison), causing significant morbidity and mortality. Bison herds that experience an outbreak of M. bovis are at higher risk for subsequent outbreaks, suggesting that chronic, subclinical infections can be established. Antemortem testing is therefore crucial to disease management; however, the precise sampling method to maximize detection of M. bovis in bison is unknown. We evaluated two sample types-superficial nasal swabs and deep nasopharyngeal swabs-collected from apparently healthy or symptomatic bison from January 2021 through December 2022. We used real-time PCR to detect M. bovis in 76/938 bison (8.1%) from 11 herds. For bison testing positive on at least one swab type, M. bovis was detected in 63/76 (82.8%) deep nasopharyngeal swabs and 29/73 (38.1%) superficial nasal swabs. Agreement between swabs for positive bison was 21% (n=16, kappa coefficient 0.319). We conclude that deep nasopharyngeal swabbing is more sensitive than superficial nasal swabbing for detection of M. bovis in bison and that low agreement between methods may be related to stage of infection. We further tested pooled samples by PCR and found that pooling of up to five samples can be effective to increase throughput and minimize costs. Management of wild bison relies on the ability to relocate animals to maintain gene flow and healthy populations. Sensitive and specific diagnostic tests are needed to inform decisions and minimize risk of transmission, especially from subclinical carriers. This study provides valuable insight that will inform best practices for M. bovis testing, thereby supporting the conservation of bison as healthy wildlife, which in turn promotes ecological restoration, safeguards cultural practices of Tribal Nations, and upholds the bison as a unique American icon.

Climate change, its impact on emerging infectious diseases and new technologies to combat the challenge.

ABSTRACTImproved sanitation, increased access to health care, and advances in preventive and clinical medicine have reduced the mortality and morbidity rates of several infectious diseases. However, recent outbreaks of several emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have caused substantial mortality and morbidity, and the frequency of these outbreaks is likely to increase due to pathogen, environmental, and population effects driven by climate change. Extreme or persistent changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and air pollution associated with climate change can, for example, expand the size of EID reservoirs, increase host-pathogen and cross-species host contacts to promote transmission or spillover events, and degrade the overall health of susceptible host populations leading to new EID outbreaks. It is therefore vital to establish global strategies to track and model potential responses of candidate EIDs to project their future behaviour and guide research efforts on early detection and diagnosis technologies and vaccine development efforts for these targets. Multi-disciplinary collaborations are demanding to develop effective inter-continental surveillance and modelling platforms that employ artificial intelligence to mitigate climate change effects on EID outbreaks. In this review, we discuss how climate change has increased the risk of EIDs and describe novel approaches to improve surveillance of emerging pathogens that pose the risk for EID outbreaks, new and existing measures that could be used to contain or reduce the risk of future EID outbreaks, and new methods to improve EID tracking during further outbreaks to limit disease transmission.