Dynamic assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for predicting ischemic stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation patients.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Stroke and bleeding risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often assessed at baseline to predict outcomes years later. We investigated whether dynamic changes in CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores over time modify risk prediction. METHODS: We included patients with AF who were stable while taking vitamin K antagonists. During a 6-year follow-up, all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) and major bleeding events were recorded. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED were recalculated every 2-years and tested for clinical outcomes at 2-year periods. RESULTS: We included 1361 patients (mean CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED 4.0±1.7 and 2.9±1.2). During the follow-up, 156 (11.5%) patients had an ischemic stroke/TIA and 269 (19.8%) had a major bleeding event. Compared with the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc, the CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 2 years had higher predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period from 2 to 4 years. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed improvements in sensitivity and better reclassification. The CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 4 years had better predictive performance than the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc during the period from 4 to 6 years, with an improvement in IDI and an enhancement of the reclassification. The recalculated HAS-BLED at 2-years had higher predictive ability than the baseline score for major bleeding during the period from 2 to 4 years, with significant improvements in sensitivity and reclassification. A slight enhancement in sensitivity was observed with the HAS-BLED score recalculated at 4 years compared with the baseline score. CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and change over time. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores should be regularly reassessed, particularly for accurate stroke risk prediction.

Validez en la predicción de riesgo de la escala SCORE en una población mediterránea con hipertensión arterial / Predictive validity of the risk SCORE model in a Mediterranean population with arterial hypertension

Introducción y objetivos: La hipertensión arterial es el factor de riesgo más prevalente a nivel global. Se recomienda el cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular en pacientes hipertensos antes del inicio del tratamiento. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar el valor predictivo y la utilidad clínica de la escala SCORE para prevenir eventos cardiovasculares y mortalidad por todas las causas en los pacientes con hipertensión arterial. Métodos: Se incluyeron los pacientes con hipertensión arterial de la cohorte ESCARVAL-RISK. El riesgo cardiovascular se calculó mediante la escala SCORE. Todas las muertes y eventos cardiovasculares se registraron durante un periodo de 5 años de seguimiento. Se calculó la sensibilidad, la especificidad y los valores predictivos para diferentes puntos de corte, y se evaluó el efecto de diferentes factores de riesgo sobre la exactitud diagnóstica de las gráficas SCORE. Resultados: En una cohorte final de 9.834 pacientes, hubo 555 eventos cardiovasculares y 69 muertes. El valor de riesgo recomendado para iniciar tratamiento farmacológico (5%) presentó una especificidad del 92% para la muerte y del 91% para los eventos cardiovasculares, y una sensibilidad del 20% para la muerte y del 22% para los eventos cardiovasculares. Además, la escala clasificó al 80,4% de los pacientes que sufrieron un evento cardiovascular, y al 78,3% de los que murieron, como de bajo riesgo. La edad, el índice de masa corporal, la retinopatía y el tratamiento anticoagulante se asociaron con una reducción en la capacidad predictiva de la escala SCORE, mientras que ser mujer se asoció con mejor predicción de riesgo. Conclusiones: La capacidad predictiva de la escala SCORE para la enfermedad cardiovascular y la mortalidad total en los pacientes con hipertensión arterial es limitada.(AU)

Introduction and objectives: Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor globally. Calculation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients before initiation of treatment is recommended. This study aimed to assess the predictive value and clinical utility of the SCORE scale in preventing cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension. Methods: Patients with hypertension from the ESCARVAL-RISK cohort were included. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the SCORE scale. All deaths and cardiovascular events were recorded during a 5-year follow-up period. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for different cut-off points and the effect of different risk factors on the diagnostic accuracy of SCORE charts were assessed. Results: In a final cohort of 9834 patients, there were 555 cardiovascular events and 69 deaths. The recommended risk value for initiating drug treatment (5%) had a specificity of 92% for death and 91% for cardiovascular events, and a sensitivity of 20% for death and 22% for cardiovascular events. In addition, the scale classified 80.4% of patients who experienced a cardiovascular event and 78.3% of those who died as low risk. Age, body mass index, retinopathy and anticoagulant therapy were associated with reduced predictive ability of the SCORE scale, while being female was associated with better risk prediction. Conclusions: The predictive ability of the SCORE scale for cardiovascular disease and total mortality in patients with hypertension is limited.(AU)

[Predictive validity of the risk SCORE model in a Mediterranean population with arterial hypertension]. / Validez en la predicción de riesgo de la escala SCORE en una población mediterránea con hipertensión arterial.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor globally. Calculation of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients before initiation of treatment is recommended. This study aimed to assess the predictive value and clinical utility of the SCORE scale in preventing cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension. METHODS: Patients with hypertension from the ESCARVAL-RISK cohort were included. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the SCORE scale. All deaths and cardiovascular events were recorded during a 5-year follow-up period. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for different cut-off points and the effect of different risk factors on the diagnostic accuracy of SCORE charts were assessed. RESULTS: In a final cohort of 9834 patients, there were 555 cardiovascular events and 69 deaths. The recommended risk value for initiating drug treatment (5%) had a specificity of 92% for death and 91% for cardiovascular events, and a sensitivity of 20% for death and 22% for cardiovascular events. In addition, the scale classified 80.4% of patients who experienced a cardiovascular event and 78.3% of those who died as low risk. Age, body mass index, retinopathy and anticoagulant therapy were associated with reduced predictive ability of the SCORE scale, while being female was associated with better risk prediction. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive ability of the SCORE scale for cardiovascular disease and total mortality in patients with hypertension is limited.

Luces y sombras de la Guía Europea ESC-2021 de Prevención de la Enfermedad Cardiovascular en la Práctica Clínica / Lights and shadows of the 2021 ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice

Los médicos de familia atienden un importante número de pacientes con alto riesgo vascular (RV). LasGuías Europeas de Prevención Cardio-vascular (2021) proponen una nueva clasificación del riesgo y estrategias de intervención sobre los factores de riesgo (FRV), orientada a la tomade decisiones compartidas entre profesionales y pacientes. En el presente trabajo realizamos un análisis crítico de dichas guías, ofreciendoposibles soluciones prácticas para la Atención Primaria.Son destacables aspectos positivos (luces) que los modelos de RV SCORE2 (entre cuarenta y sesenta y nueve años) y SCORE2-OP (entre setenta yochenta y nueve años) se basan en cohortes más actuales y miden con mayor exactitud y discriminación dicho riesgo. Además, se propone actuardiferenciadamente sobre el riesgo según la edad. Pragmáticamente, se presentan nuevos modelos informáticos para calcular el riesgo. Sin embargo,entre los aspectos negativos (sombras), parece colegirse una mayor dificultad de implementación al proponerse nueve subgrupos de sujetos segúnsu edad o nivel de riesgo, con un dintel definitorio de alto RV subjetivo que podría ocasionar un incremento sustancial en el número de sujetossusceptibles de tratar sin una discriminación objetiva que lo sustente. Además, las intervenciones sobre los FRV en dos pasos podrían retrasar laconsecución de objetivos terapéuticos, sobre todo en pacientes de muy alto riesgo, diabéticos o con enfermedad cardiovascular.Ante las dificultades que plantea la valoración del riesgo, proponemos unificar criterios y simplificar los mensajes claves para hacer unas guíasmás atractivas y que realmente ayuden a los profesionales de Atención Primaria en su práctica habitual.(AU)

General practitioners see in their consultation a a significant number of patients at high vascular risk (VR). The European Guidelines forCardiovascular Disease Prevention (2021) recommend a new risk classification and intervention strategies on on vascular risk factors (RF), withthe aim of providing a shared decision-making recommendations between professionals and patients. In this document we present a criticalanalysis of these guidelines, offering possible solutions that can be implemented in Primary Care.It should be noted that there are positive aspects (lights) such as that the SCORE2 (from forty to sixty-nine years) and SCORE2-OP models (fromseventy to eighty-nine years) are based on more current cohorts and measure cardiovascular risk in a more accurately manner. In addition, it isproposed to differentiate different risk thresholds according to age-groups. For sake of practicality, cardiovascular risk can be estimated usingdifferent websites with the new computer models. However, among the negative aspects (shadows), it seems to be add complexity implemen-ting nine subgroups of subjects according to their age or level of risk, with a defined thresholds that could cause a substantial increase in thepotential number of subjects susceptible to treatment without a clear evidence that supports it. In addition, two-step RF interventions coulddelay achievement of therapeutic goals, especially in very high-risk patients, diabetics, or patients with cardiovascular disease.Given these limitations, in this document we propose practical recommendations in order to simplify and facilitate the implementation of theguideline in primary care.(AU)

Use of MeNTS, Frailty and Symptom Scales for selecting surgical patients during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study / Uso de escalas MeNTS, Fragilidad y Síntomas para la selección de pacientes quirúrgicos durante la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2: Estudio retrospectivo

Abstract Introduction: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to the cancellation of non-emergent surgeries in order to optimize the use of resources. Once the elective medical services are restored, a technical and ethical strategy becomes critical to select candidate patients for elective surgery. Objective: To describe the results from the implementation of MeNTS (Medically Necessary Time-sensitive Procedures), FI-CGA, and survey on COVID-19 symptoms Scales, as methods for the selection of patients who were candidates for elective surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in a third level institution in Cali, Colombia. Methods: The databases of the results on the administration of MeNTS, frailty index (FI-CGA) and COVID 19 symptoms scales in patients who were candidates for elective surgery in a third level clinic in Cali city, between March 1st and August 31st, 2020 were reviewed. Results: A total of 1,044 patients were included, of which 647 (62.0 %) were females, with a median age of52 years (interquartile range [IQR] 38-62). 98 % of the patients were asymptomatic, the overall median score for MeNTS was 48 (IQR 44-52) and the average for FI-CGA was 0.0 (standard deviation 0.1). Conclusions: MeNTS, FI-CGA and the Symptoms Survey are easily accessible scales amidst the pandemic and are helpful to select patients with intermediate and low risk of perioperative morbidity in elective surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Further studies are required to confirm these findings and to clarify the potential of these tools in the selection of patients that meet the high-risk criteria.

Resumen Introducción: La pandemia por SARS-CoV-2 ha ocasionado la suspensión de cirugías no urgentes con el fin de optimizar los recursos. Una vez los servicios médicos electivos son restablecidos, es fundamental disponer de una estrategia técnica y ética para la selección de los pacientes candidatos a cirugía electiva. Objetivo: Describir los resultados observados durante la implementación de las escalas MeNTS (Medically Necessary Time-sensitive Procedures), IF-VIG y Encuesta de síntomas para COVID-19, como métodos de selección de pacientes candidatos a cirugía electiva durante la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2 en una institución de nivel tres en la ciudad de Cali, Colombia. Metodología: Se revisaron las bases de datos de los resultados de la aplicación de escalas de MeNTS, índice de fragilidad (IF-VIG) y los síntomas para COVID 19, en pacientes candidatos a cirugía electiva en una clínica de tercer nivel en la ciudad de Cali, entre marzo 1 y agosto 31 del 2020. Resultados: En total 1.044 pacientes fueron incluidos, de los cuales 647 (62,0 %) fueron mujeres con una mediana de edad de 52 años (rango intercuartil [RIC] 38-62). El 98 % de los pacientes estuvieron asintomáticos, la mediana general de la puntuación total de MeNTS fue 48 (RIC 44-52) y el promedio para IF-VIG fue de 0,0 (desviación estándar 0,1). Conclusiones: MeNTS, IF-VIG y Encuesta de síntomas, son escalas fácilmente accesibles durante tiempos de pandemia y son de utilidad para seleccionar pacientes de riesgo intermedio y bajo de morbilidad perioperatoria en cirugía electiva durante la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2. Se requieren futuros estudios para confirmar estos hallazgos y para clarificar su potencial en la selección de pacientes con criterios que los definan como de riesgo alto.

Riesgo cardiovascular en la población anciana española. Escala de riesgo EPICARDIAN / Cardiovascular risk in the elderly population of Spain. The EPICARDIAN risk score

Antecedentes y objetivos: La estimación del riesgo cardiovascular en personas mayores de 70 años es problemática. La mayoría de las escalas se han creado basándose en cohortes de personas de mediana edad, con una representación insuficiente de los adultos de más edad. El poder predictivo de los factores de riesgo cardiovascular clásicos disminuye con la edad. El objetivo de este estudio es desarrollar una escala específica para estimar el riesgo cardiovascular de la población anciana española. Métodos: Este estudio se realizó en una cohorte poblacional establecida en 1995. Marco: 3 zonas geográficas de España (Madrid, Ávila y Lugo). Participantes: 3.729 personas mayores de 64 años sin enfermedades cardiovasculares (ECV) al inicio del seguimiento. Mediciones: se investigaron anualmente las sospechas de ECV mortal y no mortal (cardiopatía coronaria e ictus) y se confirmaron usando los criterios del proyecto MONICA de la OMS. Se siguió a todos los participantes hasta que apareció el primer episodio de ECV, hasta su muerte o hasta el 31 de diciembre de 2015. Resultados: La edad fue el factor predictivo más potente de ECV a los 10 años en ambos sexos. Las variables asociadas con ECV en los varones fueron el tratamiento de la hipertensión arterial (HR: 1,35; IC 95%: 1,067-1,710), la diabetes (HR: 1,359; IC 95%: 0,997-1,852) y el tabaquismo (HR: 1,207; IC 95%: 0,945-1,541), y en las mujeres, el tabaquismo (HR: 1,881; IC 95%: 1,356-2,609) y la diabetes (HR: 1,285; IC 95%: 0,967-1,707). El colesterol total no aumentó el riesgo de ECV ni en varones ni en mujeres. Sin embargo, las concentraciones de colesterol total>200mg/dL se asociaron inversamente al riesgo de ECV a los 10 años, tanto en varones como en mujeres. conclusiones: La ECV total a los 10 años aumenta significativamente en los varones españoles de edad avanzada con la edad, la diabetes y el tratamiento antihipertensivo, y en las mujeres con la diabetes y el tabaquismo (AU)

Background and objectives: Cardiovascular risk estimation in people over 70 years of age is problematic. Most scores have been created based on cohorts of middle-aged people, with an underrepresentation of older adults. The predictive power of classical cardiovascular risk factors declines with age. The aim of this work is to develop a specific score for estimating cardiovascular risk among the elderly population in Spain. Methods: This work is a population-based cohort established in 1995. Setting: 3 geographical areas of Spain (Madrid, Ávila, and Lugo). Participants: 3,729 people older than 64 years with no cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline. Measurements: suspected fatal and nonfatal CVD (both coronary heart disease and stroke) were investigated annually and confirmed using the WHO-MONICA criteria. All participants were followed-up on until occurrence of a first CVD event, until death, or until December 31, 2015. Results: Age was the strongest predictor of CVD at 10 years in both men and women. In men, variables associated with CVD were high blood pressure treatment (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.067-1.710), diabetes (HR: 1.359; 95% CI: 0.997-1.852), and smoking (HR: 1.207; 95% CI: 0.945-1.541) and in women, the variables were smoking (HR: 1.881; 95% CI: 1.356-2.609) and diabetes (HR: 1.285; 95% CI: 0.967-1.707). Total cholesterol did not increase the risk of CVD in men or women. However, total cholesterol levels>200mg/dL were inversely associated with 10-year risk of CVD in men and women. Conclusions: In elderly Spanish men, total CVD at 10 years is significantly increased by age, diabetes, and antihypertensive treatment and in elderly Spanish women by diabetes and smoking. Total cholesterol levels did not increase the risk of CVD, particularly in males (AU)

Cardiovascular risk in the elderly population of Spain. The EPICARDIAN risk score.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular risk estimation in people over 70 years of age is problematic. Most scores have been created based on cohorts of middle-aged people, with an underrepresentation of older adults. The predictive power of classical cardiovascular risk factors declines with age. The aim of this work is to develop a specific score for estimating cardiovascular risk among the elderly population in Spain. METHODS: This work is a population-based cohort established in 1995. SETTING: Three geographical areas of Spain (Madrid, Ávila, and Lugo). PARTICIPANTS: 3,729 people older than 64 years with no cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Suspected fatal and nonfatal CVD (both coronary heart disease and stroke) were investigated annually and confirmed using the WHO-MONICA criteria. All participants were followed-up on until occurrence of a first CVD event, until death, or until December 31, 2015. RESULTS: Age was the strongest predictor of CVD at 10 years in both men and women. In men, variables associated with CVD were high blood pressure treatment (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.067-1.710), diabetes (HR: 1.359; 95% CI: 0.997-1.852), and smoking (HR: 1.207; 95% CI: 0.945-1.541) and in women, the variables were smoking (HR: 1.881; 95% CI: 1.356-2.609) and diabetes (HR: 1.285; 95% CI: 0.967-1.707). Total cholesterol did not increase the risk of CVD in men or women. However, total cholesterol levels >200 mg/dL were inversely associated with 10-year risk of CVD in men and women. CONCLUSIONS: In elderly Spanish men, total CVD at 10 years is significantly increased by age, diabetes, and antihypertensive treatment and in elderly Spanish women by diabetes and smoking. Total cholesterol levels did not increase the risk of CVD, particularly in males.

Estimación de riesgo en pacientes con infarto agudo de miocardio con elevación del segmento ST: Su realidad en Cuba

RESUMEN El infarto agudo de miocardio con elevación del segmento ST es una de las enfermedades cardiovasculares con mayor mortalidad. Su pronóstico se relaciona con la probabilidad de desarrollar complicaciones a corto o largo plazo y depende más de las condiciones al ingreso que de los factores de riesgo coronario previos. Los estudios encaminados a desarrollar una fórmula que permita cuantificar riesgo de muerte o complicaciones de un paciente con infarto agudo de miocardio, mediante una puntuación o score, se remontan a la década de 1950. Las diferencias en la aplicabilidad de estas escalas de estratificación de riesgo existentes, a la población cubana, derivan del hecho de haber sido desarrolladas en países de ingresos altos, por lo cual su extrapolación es cuestionable. Existen diferencias sociodemográficas, étnicas, genéticas e idiosincráticas, que pueden ser la causa de que los resultados predichos en los estudios originales no sean reproducibles con exactitud en poblaciones diferentes.

ABSTRACT ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction is one of the cardiovascular diseases with the highest mortality. Its prognosis is related to the probability of developing short- or long-term complications and depends more on conditions at admission than on previous coronary risk factors. Studies aimed at developing a formula to quantify the risk of death or complications in patients with acute myocardial infarction using either a rating or a score date back to the 1950s. Differences in the applicability of these risk stratification scores within the Cuban population are due to the fact that they were developed in high-income countries and, therefore, their extrapolation is questionable. Sociodemographic, ethnic, genetic and idiosyncratic differences may prevent the results predicted in the original studies from being accurately reproduced in different populations.