Reliability of EuroSCORE II on Prediction of Thirty-Day Mortality and Long-Term Results in Patients Treated with Sutureless Valves.

Background: EuroSCORE II (ES2) is a reliable tool for preoperative cardiac surgery mortality risk prediction; however, a patient's age, a surgical procedure's weight and the new devices available may cause its accuracy to drift. We sought to investigate ES2 performance related to the surgical risk and late mortality estimation in patients who underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR) with sutureless valves. Methods: Between 2012 and 2021, a total of 1126 patients with isolated aortic stenosis who underwent surgical AVR by means of sutureless valves were retrospectively collected from six European centers. Patients were stratified into three groups according to the EuroSCORE II risk classes (ES2 < 4%, ES2 4-8% and ES2 > 8%). The accuracy of ES2 in estimating mortality risk was assessed using the standardized mortality ratio (O/E ratio), ROC curves (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test for goodness-of-fit. Results: The overall observed mortality was 3.0% (predicted mortality ES2: 5.39%) with an observed/expected (O/E) ratio of 0.64 (confidential interval (CI): 0.49-0.89). In our population, ES2 showed a moderate discriminating power (AUC 0.65, 95%CI 0.56-0.72, p < 0.001; HL p = 0.798). Good accuracy was found in patients with ES2 < 4% (O/E ratio 0.54, 95%CI 0.23-1.20, AUC 0.75, p < 0.001, HL p = 0.999) and for patients with an age < 75 years (O/E ratio 0.98, 95%CI 0.45-1.96, AUC 0.76, p = 0.004, HL p = 0.762). Moderate discrimination was observed for ES2 in the estimation of long-term risk of mortality (AUC 0.64, 95%CI: 0.60-0.68, p < 0.001). Conclusions: EuroSCORE II showed good accuracy in patients with an age < 75 years and patients with ES2 < 4%, while overestimating risk in the other subgroups. A recalibration of the model should be taken into account based on the complexity of actual patients and impact of new technologies.

Prevalence and outcome of elderly and low-risk patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair.

AIM: The aims of this study were: i) to report the prevalence of low-risk patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) undergoing mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (M-TEER) in a real-world setting; ii) to evaluate the prognostic significance of EuroSCORE II; iii) to determine whether an optimal M-TEER provides a mortality benefit regardless of EuroSCORE-II. METHODS: We analyzed data from the GIOTTO registry that enrolled patients undergoing M-TEER in Italy. We included only patients with DMR. Two groups were defined: patients with EuroSCORE<4% and with EuroSCORE≥4%. A further stratification according to variables included in the EuroSCORE-II was made. Interaction between EuroSCORE-II and optimal procedural success was evaluated. Outcome of interest was all-cause death at 2-year. RESULTS: Among 1659 patients prospectively enrolled in the GIOTTO registry, 657 had DMR, 364 with an EuroSCORE<4% (53%) and 311 with an EuroSCORE≥4% (47%). Patients with lower EuroSCORE were older with less comorbidities. All-cause mortality was higher in patients with EuroSCORE≥ vs <4%. EuroSCORE II ≥ 4% was independently associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 2.36, 95%CI 1.28-4.38, p = 0.007). Among variables included in the EuroSCORE-II, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction<35% and systolic Pulmonary Artery Pressure ≥ 50mmhg were independent predictors of clinical outcome. Two-year all-cause death was higher in patients without optimal MR reduction regardless of the calculated surgical risk (p for interaction 0.3). CONCLUSION: More than half of patients with DMR undergoing M-TEER had a Euroscore<4% with a median age of 81. An optimally successful M-TEER was associated with a lower mortality regardless of EuroSCORE.

Enhancing mortality prediction after coronary artery bypass graft: a machine learning approach utilizing EuroScore.

Aim: We developed a machine learning model using EuroScore assumptions and preoperative and intraoperative risk factors to predict mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). Materials & methods: We retrospectively examined data from 108 CABG patients at King Abdullah University Hospital, classifying them into risk groups via EuroScore and predicting mortality through random forest classification. Results: High-risk patients displayed longer surgical times and significant factors such as age and surgery choice. The median EuroScore was 0.95 (0.5-6.4). The model yielded high AUC scores (0.98, 0.95) indicating strong predictive accuracy. Conclusion: Our findings showed that the machine learning models combined with the EuroScore significantly improve post-CABG mortality prediction. For further validation, larger datasets are needed.

Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a well-established procedure for ischemic heart disease, yet with a 2.0% mortality risk within 30 days, its frequency has declined. EuroScore aids in predicting CABG mortality, considering various risk factors. Postoperative complications like myocardial infarction and heart failure can be severe, and aspirin use post-CABG may reduce mortality for up to 4 years, particularly in multivessel heart disease. This research project explores EuroScore's role in CABG mortality analysis, emphasizing its significance in assessing cardiac surgery quality. Prolonged aortic clamp and bypass times correlate with higher morbidity, while low-risk patients benefit from more left internal mammary artery grafts for improved survival.

Statistical primer: using prognostic models to predict the future: what cardiothoracic surgery can learn from Strictly Come Dancing.

OBJECTIVES: Prognostic models are widely used across medicine and within cardiothoracic surgery, where predictive tools such as EuroSCORE are commonplace. Such models are a useful component of clinical assessment but may be misapplied. In this article, we demonstrate some of the major issues with risk scores by using the popular BBC television programme Strictly Come Dancing (known as Dancing with the Stars in many other countries) as an example. METHODS: We generated a multivariable prognostic model using data from the then-completed 19 series of Strictly Come Dancing to predict prospectively the results of the 20th series. RESULTS: The initial model based solely on demographic data was limited in its predictive value (0.25, 0.22; R2 and Spearman's rank correlation, respectively) but was substantially improved following the introduction of early judges' scores deemed representative of whether contestants could actually dance (0.40, 0.30). We then utilize our model to discuss the difficulties and pitfalls in using and interpreting prognostic models in cardiothoracic surgery and beyond, particularly where these do not adequately capture potentially important prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Researchers and clinicians alike should use prognostic models cautiously and not extrapolate conclusions from demographic data alone.

Validation of EuroSCORE II Scoring System on Isolated CABG Patient in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) is one solution to overcome cardiovascular problems. EuroSCORE II is a scoring system to predict mortality risk in patients undergoing cardiac surgery including CABG. Unfortunately, there's still much debate about the benefits of EuroSCORE II in Asia, including Indonesia. This study aims to validates EuroSCORE II in predicting the outcomes in patients underwent CABG without any other procedure. RESULTS: A total of 2628 patients were included. The mean age was 59 years, mostly male (84.97%; n = 2233). Most patients underwent elective surgery (93.07%; n = 2446) and only 1.67% (n = 44) of the patients has high EuroSCORE category. Death was found in 4.22% (n-111) patients. EuroSCORE II had fair discriminant power (AUC 0.72), but a lower mortality predicted value for each group. CONCLUSION: The parameters in EuroSCORE II are related with mortality in isolated CABG patients, but they cannot be used as mortality predictors in Indonesia.

Validation study of EuroSCORE II for dialysis patients: A single-center study in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II is a predictive model for in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery. Although it has good performance among the general population undergoing cardiac surgery, it has not been validated among dialysis patients, who have a higher rate of mortality after cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the model in predicting in-hospital mortality in maintenance dialysis patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS: This retrospective, single-center study included adult patients on maintenance dialysis who underwent open cardiac surgery at our institution. Calibration performance of EuroSCORE II for in-hospital death was determined based on the comparison between expected and observed mortalities for low- (EuroSCORE II <4 %), intermediate- (4-8 %), and high-risk (>8 %) groups. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was investigated to determine the model's discrimination performance. RESULTS: A total of 163 patients (male, 73.6 %; median age, 70 years; median dialysis vintage, 9 years; median EuroSCORE II, 3.3 %) were included. The mortality rate was 9.2 %. The observed mortality rates (vs. mean expected mortality) rates were 2.1 % (vs. 2.4 %), 7.5 % (vs. 5.5 %), and 34.5 % (vs. 21.1 %) in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Its AUROC was 0.825 (95 % confidence interval, 0.711-0.940). CONCLUSIONS: Although EuroSCORE II model adequately estimated in-hospital mortality in the low-and intermediate-risk groups (EuroSCORE II <8 %), it underestimated in-hospital mortality in the high-risk group (EuroSCORE II >8 %) among maintenance dialysis patients. The discrimination performance of the model for in-hospital death was good among maintenance dialysis patients.

Combination of the triglyceride-glucose index and EuroSCORE II improves the prediction of long-term adverse outcomes in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

AIMS: We aimed to investigate the independent and combined association of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and EuroSCORE II with major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and examine whether the addition of the TyG index improves the predictive performance of the EuroSCORE II. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included 1013 patients who underwent CABG. The primary endpoint was MACE, which was defined as the composite of all-cause death, repeat coronary artery revascularisation, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke. The patients were grouped by the TyG index and EuroSCORE II tertiles and the combination of these risk indicators. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 211 individuals developed MACE. Elevated levels of the TyG index and EuroSCORE II were associated with an increased risk of MACE. The hazard ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 3.66 (2.34-5.73) in patients with the highest tertile of the TyG index and EuroSCORE II. Compared with the EuroSCORE II alone, combining the TyG index with EuroSCORE II achieved a better predictive performance [C-statistic increased 0.032, p < 0.001; continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) (95% CI): 0.364 (0.215-0.514), p < 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) (95% CI): 0.015 (0.007-0.023), p < 0.001, Akaike's information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) decreased, and the likelihood ratio test, p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: The TyG index and EuroSCORE II are independently associated with poor prognosis. Furthermore, the TyG index is an important adjunct to the EuroSCORE II for improving risk stratification and guiding early intervention among post-CABG patients.

Fluorine 18-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography Cardiac Viability Risk Stratification in Comparison with EuroSCORE II for Revascularization in Patients with Left Ventricular Dysfunction.

Background: Diagnostic value of fluorine 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (F18-FDG PET/CT) in the assessment of myocardial viable segments is well known; hence, it can identify patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction who may benefit from revascularization. The presence of significant myocardial viable segments before revascularization will offer better prognosis with reduced mortality and morbidity. However, the usage of F18-FDG PET/CT myocardial viability study in the presurgical risk stratification is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to predict perioperative mortality with hibernating viable myocardial (HVM) segments established by F18-FDG PET/CT in comparison with EuroSCORE II in patients with LV dysfunction undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Materials and Methods: A prospective, observational study included 75 patients of chronic ischemic coronary artery disease with ejection fraction ≤40%. Tc-99m sesta-methoxyisobutylisonitrile myocardial perfusion single photon emission CT/CT and myocardial viability with F18-FDG PET/CT at rest were performed. Mortality risk stratification was done according to the EuroSCORE II. Patients were followed for post-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) 30-day mortality. Mortality observed by HVM segment groups were compared with EuroSCORE II predicted mortality. Results: Receiver operating curve for 30-day mortality prediction with HVM segments and EuroSCORE II was constructed. It showed that a cutoff of <4 HVM segments (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.7) had a sensitivity of 85%, whereas EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.4) had only 28.6% sensitivity. EuroSCORE II underestimated perioperative risk in patients with <4 viable segments, that is 5 times higher risk was observed in patients with <4 viable segments. Conclusions: HVM segments established by F18-FDG PET/CT had independently predicted mortality postoperatively. Hence, including F18-FDG PET/CT for viability assessment along with EuroSCORE II in preoperative risk assessment for revascularization by CABG in patients with LV dysfunction provided better risk stratification.

One-Year Survival after Cardiac Surgery in Frail Older People-Social Support Matters: A Prospective Cohort Study.

There are increasing rates of cardiac surgery in the elderly. Frailty, depression, and social vulnerability are frequently present in older people, and should be considered while assessing risk and providing treatment options. We aimed to analyse the impact of clinically relevant variables on survival at one year, and identify areas of future intervention. We performed a prospective cohort study at a University Hospital, with a sample of 309 elective cardiac surgery patients 65 years old and over. Their socio-demographic and clinical variables were collected. Frailty prevalence was 61.3%, while depression was absent in the majority of patients. Mortality was 1.6% and 7.8% at 30 days and 12 months, respectively. After Kaplan-Meier analysis, severe frailty (p = 0.003), severe depression (p = 0.027), pneumonia until 30 days (p = 0.014), and re-operation until 12 months (p = 0.003) significantly reduced survival, while social support increased survival (p = 0.004). In the adjusted multivariable Cox regression model, EuroSCORE II (HR = 1.27 [95% CI 1.069-1.499] p = 0.006), pneumonia until 30 days (HR = 4.19 [95% CI 1.169-15.034] p = 0.028), re-intervention until 12 months (HR = 3.14 [95% CI 1.091-9.056] p = 0.034), and social support (HR = 0.24 [95% CI 0.079-0.727] p = 0.012) explained time until death. Regular screening for social support, depression, and frailty adds relevant information regarding risk stratification, perioperative interventions, and decision-making in older people considered for cardiac surgery.

Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II.

EuroSCORE II is one of the most widely utilized cardiovascular surgery risk scoring systems. Recently, a new online score calculator, namely the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA), was launched to predict 30-day surgical mortality for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive performance of these two scores. We calculated the two scores for 1346 ATAAD patients from January 2012 to December 2021. The overall performance was evaluated using Brier scores and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to assess diagnostic ability, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was utilized to evaluate calibration. The GERAADA score and EuroSCORE II predicted 30-day mortality rates of 14.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while the observed rate was 12.5%. The predictive ability of EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.708, 95% CI: 0.664-0.792) was superior to that of the GERAADA score (0.648, 95% CI: 0.605-0.692). The GERAADA score had higher sensitivity but lower specificity than EuroSCORE II. And the GERAADA score may overestimate mortality (0.76, 95% CI: 0.65-0.89), while EuroSCORE II may underestimate the mortality rate (3.17, 95% CI: 2.92-3.44). The EuroSCORE II was superior in predicting surgical mortality among ATAAD patients. But the observed 30-day mortality rate certified a good calibration for the GERAADA score.

TRI-SCORE is superior to EuroSCORE II and STS-Score in mortality prediction following transcatheter edge-to-edge tricuspid valve repair.

BACKGROUND: The development of transcatheter tricuspid edge-to-edge repair for tricuspid regurgitation is a therapeutic milestone but a specific periprocedural risk assessment tool is lacking. TRI-SCORE has recently been introduced as a dedicated risk score for tricuspid valve surgery. AIMS: This study analyzes the predictive performance of TRI-SCORE following transcatheter edge-to-edge tricuspid valve repair. METHODS: 180 patients who underwent transcatheter tricuspid valve repair at Ulm University Hospital were consecutively included and stratified into three TRI-SCORE risk groups. The predictive performance of TRI-SCORE was assessed throughout a follow-up period of 30 days and up to 1 year. RESULTS: All patients had severe tricuspid regurgitation. Median EuroSCORE II was 6.4% (IQR 3.8-10.1%), median STS-Score 8.1% (IQR 4.6-13.4%) and median TRI-SCORE 6.0 (IQR 4.0-7.0). 64 patients (35.6%) were in the low TRI-SCORE group, 91 (50.6%) in the intermediate and 25 (13.9%) in the high-risk groups. The procedural success rate was 97.8%. 30-day mortality was 0% in the low-risk group, 1.3% in the intermediate-risk and 17.4% in the high-risk groups (p < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 168 days mortality was 0%, 3.8% and 52.2%, respectively (p < 0.001). The predictive performance of TRI-SCORE was excellent (AUC for 30-day mortality: 90.3%, for one-year mortality: 93.1%) and superior to EuroSCORE II (AUC 56.6% and 64.4%, respectively) and STS-Score (AUC 61.0% and 59.0%, respectively). CONCLUSION: TRI-SCORE is a valuable tool for prediction of mortality after transcatheter edge-to-edge tricuspid valve repair and its performance is superior to EuroSCORE II and STS-Score. In a monocentric cohort of 180 patients undergoing edge-to-edge tricuspid valve repair TRI-SCORE predicted 30-day and up to one-year mortality more reliably than EuroSCORE II and STS-Score. AUC area under the curve, 95% CI 95% confidence interval.

Validation of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II in a large Taiwan cardiac surgical centre.

BACKGROUND: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II) is a well-established scoring system for predicting mortality in cardiac surgery. This system was derived predominantly from a European patient cohort; however, no validation of this system has been conducted in Taiwan. We sought to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II at a tertiary centre. METHODS: The 2161 adult patients receiving cardiac surgery between 2017 and 2020 in our institution were included. RESULTS: Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 7.89%. The performance of EuroSCORE II was assessed using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test for calibration. Data were analysed for type of surgery, risk stratification, and status of the operation. EuroSCORE II had good discriminative power (AUC=0.854, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.822-0.885) and good calibration (χ2=5.19, p=0.82) for all types of surgery except ventricular assist devices (AUC=0.618, 95% CI: 0.497-0.738). EuroSCORE II also showed good calibration for most types of surgery except coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) combined procedure (P=0.033), heart transplantation (HT) (P=0.017), and urgent operation (P=0.041). EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated the risk for CABG combined procedure and urgent operations, and overestimated the risk for HT. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE II had satisfactory discrimination and calibration power to predict surgical mortality in Taiwan. However, the model is poorly calibrated for CABG combined procedure, HT, urgent operation, and, likely, lower- and higher-risk patients.

Fewer transfusions are still more-red blood cell transfusions affect long-term mortality in cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies indicated higher long-term mortality after the transfusion of allogeneic red blood cells (RBC); newer recommendations emphasize lower transfusion rates. The consequences of the transfusion of RBCs in cardiac surgery are unclear because later studies focused on transfusion triggers and short-term outcomes. Reports on long-term complications after cardiac surgery are few. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The mandatory Western Denmark Heart Registry was used to identify all adult cardiac operations performed in 4 centres from 2000 to 2019. Patients with multiple entries or previous cardiac operations, special/complex procedures, dying within 30 days and not eligible for follow-up were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 32,581 adult cardiac operations performed in 4 centres from 2000 to 2019 were included. The Kaplan-Meier survival plot for low-risk patients undergoing simple cardiac operations showed a significantly lower 15-year survival (0.384 vs 0.661) of patients who received perioperative RBC transfusions [odds ratio 2.43 (confidence level 2.23-2.66)]. The risk decreased with increasing comorbidity or age. No difference was found in high-risk patients. The adjusted risk ratio after an RBC transfusion, including age, sex, comorbidity and surgery, was 1.62 (1.48-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: Despite reduced transfusion rates, long-term follow-up on especially low-risk patients undergoing comparable cardiac operations still demonstrates substantially more deaths of patients receiving perioperative RBC transfusions. Even transfusion of 1-2 units is associated with increased long-term mortality.

Validation in Indonesia of two published scores for mortality prediction after cardiac surgery.

Introduction: No mortality risk prediction model has previously been validated for cardiac surgery in Indonesia. This study aimed at validating the EuroSCORE II and Age Creatinine Ejection Fraction (ACEF) score as predictors for in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery a in tertiary center, and if necessary, to recalibrate the EuroSCORE II model to our population. Methods: This study was a single-center observational study from prospectively collected data on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery from January 2006 to December 2011 (n = 1833). EuroSCORE II and ACEF scores were calculated for all patients to predict in-hospital mortality. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) with a 95% confidence interval. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (HL test). Multivariable analysis was performed to recalibrate the EuroSCORE II; variables with P < 0.2 entered the final model. Results: The in-hospital mortality rate was 3.8%, which was underestimated by the EuroSCORE II (2.1%) and the ACEF score (2.4%). EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.774 (0.714-0.834)) showed good discrimination, whereas the ACEF score (AUC 0.638 [0.561-0.718]) showed poor discrimination. The differences in AUC were significant (P = 0.002). Both scores were poorly calibrated (EuroSCORE II: HL test P < 0.001, ACEF score: HL test P < 0.001) and underestimated mortality in all risk groups. After recalibration, EuroSCORE II showed good discrimination (AUC 0.776 [0.714- 0.840]) and calibration (HL test P = 0.79). Conclusions: EuroSCORE II and the ACEF score were unsuitable for risk prediction of in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery in our center. Following recalibration, the calibration of the EuroSCORE II was greatly improved.

Bayesian networks identify determinants of outcomes following cardiac surgery in a UK population.

BACKGROUND: Traditional risk stratification tools do not describe the complex principle determinant relationships that exist amongst pre-operative and peri-operative factors and their influence on cardiac surgical outcomes. This paper reports on the use of Bayesian networks to investigate such outcomes. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected from 4776 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery at a single UK institute between April 2012 and May 2019. Machine learning techniques were used to construct Bayesian networks for four key short-term outcomes including death, stroke and renal failure. RESULTS: Duration of operation was the most important determinant of death irrespective of EuroSCORE. Duration of cardiopulmonary bypass was the most important determinant of re-operation for bleeding. EuroSCORE was predictive of new renal replacement therapy but not mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Machine-learning algorithms have allowed us to analyse the significance of dynamic processes that occur between pre-operative and peri-operative elements. Length of procedure and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass predicted mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the UK. Bayesian networks can be used to explore potential principle determinant mechanisms underlying outcomes and be used to help develop future risk models.

The performance of EuroSCORE II in CABG patients in relation to sex, age, and surgical risk: a nationwide study in 14,118 patients.

BACKGROUND: To determine the discriminative accuracy and calibration of EuroSCORE II in relation to age, sex, and surgical risk in a large nationwide coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) cohort. METHODS: All 14,118 patients undergoing isolated CABG in Sweden during 2012-2017 were included. Individual patient data were taken from the SWEDEHEART registry. Patients were divided by age (< 60, 60-69, 70-79, ≥ 80 years), sex, and surgical risk (low: EuroSCORE < 4%, intermediate: 4-8%, high: > 8%). Discriminative accuracy was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration by the observed/estimated (O/E) mortality ratio at 30 days. RESULTS: AUC and O/E ratio were 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85) and 0.58 (0.50-0.66) overall, 0.82 (0.79-0.86) and 0.57 (0.48-0.66) in men, and 0.79 (0.73-0.85) and 0.60 (0.47-0.75) in women. Regarding age, discriminative accuracy was highest in patients aged 60-69 years (AUC: 0.86 [0.80-0.93]) but was satisfactory in all groups (AUC: 0.74-0.80). O/E ratio varied from 0.26 for patients > 60 years to 0.90 for patients > 80 years. Regarding surgical risk, AUC and O/E ratio were 0.63 (0.44-0.83) and 0.18 (0.09-0.30) in low-risk patients, 0.60 (0.55-0.66) and 0.57 (0.46-0.68) in intermediate-risk patients, and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) and 0.78 (0.64-0.92) in high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: EuroSCORE II had good discriminative accuracy independently of sex and age, but markedly overestimated mortality risk, especially in younger patients. Accuracy and calibration were better in high-risk patients than in low-risk and intermediate-risk patients.

Análisis ajustado de la mortalidad operatoria en cirugía cardíaca de adultos en Uruguay; 14 años de aplicación y validación del EuroSCORE I ajustado por el Fondo Nacional de Recursos / Adjusted analysis of operative mortality in cardiac surgery of adults in Uruguay, 14 years of application and validation of EuroSCORE I by the Fondo Nacional de Recursos / Análise ajustada da mortalidade operatória em cirurgia cardíaca de adultos no Uruguai, 14 anos de aplicação e validação do EuroSCORE I pelo Fondo Nacional de Recursos

Introducción: la mortalidad posoperatoria ha sido el indicador principal de los resultados a corto y mediano plazo en la evaluación de la cirugía cardíaca. Una forma de analizar dicho evento es mediante los modelos de ajuste del riesgo que identifican variables que predicen su ocurrencia. Uno de los más utilizados es el EuroSCORE I que pro-porciona la probabilidad de morir de cada individuo y que está constituido por 18 variables de riesgo. Objetivos: presentar los resultados de la aplicación y la validación del modelo EuroSCORE I en Uruguay entre los años 2003 y 2020. Metodología: inicialmente se desarrolló una validación externa del EuroSCORE I en la población uruguaya adulta tomando como población de referencia la intervenida entre los años 2003 y 2006. Una vez que se validó el EuroSCORE I, este se aplicó prospectivamente durante los años 2007 al 2020 en su versión original y con el ajuste desarrollado con población del período 2003-2006. Resultados: la aplicación del modelo original encontró que hubo 5 años en los que la razón de mortalidad observada y esperada (MO/ME) fue significativamente mayor que 1. En el período 2007-2020 el EuroScore I no calibró en 6 oca-siones, y fue aplicada la versión ajustada en la evaluación de las instituciones de medicina altamente especializada. La aplicación del modelo ajustado mostró una buena calibración para el período 2007-2020, salvo en el año 2013, y mostró una buena discriminación (área bajo la curva ROC) en todo el período evaluado. Conclusiones: las escalas de riesgo son herramientas metodológicas y estadísticas que tienen gran utilidad para la toma de decisiones en salud. Este trabajo tiene como fortaleza el de presentar datos nacionales aplicando un modelo de riesgo ampliamente utilizado en todo el mundo, lo que nos permite comparar nuestros resultados con los obte-nidos a nivel internacional (EuroSCORE I logístico original) y, por otro lado, evaluar la performance comparativa interna a lo largo de un largo período de tiempo (EuroSCORE I logístico ajustado). Para el futuro resta el desafío de comparar estos resultados, ya sea con un modelo propio o con otros internacionales de elaboración más reciente.

Introduction: postoperative mortality has been the main indicator of short- and medium-term results in the eva luation of cardiac surgery. One way to analyze such outcomes is through risk adjustment models that identify varia bles that predict the occurrence. One of the most used is the EuroSCORE I, which provides the probability of death for each individual and is made up of 18 risk variables. Objectives: present the results of the application and validation of the EuroSCORE I model in Uruguay between 2003 and 2020. Methodology: initially, an external validation of the EuroSCORE I was developed in the Uruguayan adult popula tion, taking as reference population the intervened population between 2003 and 2006. Once the EuroSCORE I was validated, it was applied prospectively during the years 2007 to 2020 in its original version and with the adjustment developed with the population of the period 2003 to 2006. Results: the application of the original model found that there were 5 years during which the observed versus ex pected mortality ratio (OM/ME) was significantly greater than 1. In the period 2007 to 2020, the EuroScore I did not calibrate on 6 occasions, the adjusted version being applied in the evaluation of highly specialized medicine institu tions. The application of the adjusted model showed a good calibration for the period 2007-2020 except in the year 2013 and showed good discrimination (area under the ROC curve) throughout the evaluated period. Conclusions: risk scales are methodological and statistical tools that are very useful for decision-making in health care. This work has the strength of presenting national data applying a risk model widely used across the world, which allows it to be compare with results at an international level (original logistical Euroscore I) and, on the other hand, to evaluate the internal comparative performance over long period of time (adjusted logistic Euroscore I). Up next is the challenge of comparing these results either with our own model or with other more recent international ones.

Introdução: a mortalidade pós-operatória tem sido o principal indicador de resultados a curto e médio prazo na avaliação da cirurgia cardíaca. Uma forma de analisar esse evento é por meio de modelos de ajuste de risco que identificam variáveis que predizem a ocorrência do evento. Um dos mais utilizados é o EuroSCORE I, que fornece a probabilidade de morrer para cada indivíduo e é composto por 18 variáveis de risco. Objetivos: apresentar os resultados da aplicação e validação do modelo EuroSCORE I no Uruguai entre os anos de 2003 e 2020. Metodologia: inicialmente, foi realizada uma validação externa do EuroSCORE I na população uruguaia adulta, tomando como referência a população operada entre 2003 e 2006. Uma vez validado o EuroSCORE I, foi aplicado prospectivamente durante os anos de 2007 a 2020 em sua versão original e com o ajuste desenvolvido com a popu lação do período de 2003 a 2006. Resultados: a aplicação do modelo original constatou que houve 5 anos em que a razão de mortalidade observada versus esperada (MO/ME) foi significativamente maior que 1. No período de 2007 a 2020, o EuroScore I não calibrou em 6 ocasiões, sendo a versão ajustada aplicada na avaliação de instituições médicas altamente especializadas. A aplicação do modelo ajustado mostrou uma boa calibração para o período 2007-2020 exceto no ano de 2013 e apre sentou boa discriminação (área sob a curva ROC) em todo o período avaliado. Conclusões: as escalas de risco são ferramentas metodológicas e estatísticas muito úteis para a tomada de decisões em saúde. O ponto forte deste trabalho é apresentar dados nacionais aplicando um modelo de risco amplamente uti lizado em todo o mundo, que permite comparar com resultados a nível internacional (original Logistic Euroscore I) e, por outro lado, avaliar o comparativo interno desempenho durante um longo período de tempo (Euroscore Logístico I ajustado). Para o futuro, fica o desafio de comparar esses resultados, seja com um modelo próprio ou com outros internacionais de elaboração mais recente.

A Risk Model for 1-Year Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement From the J-TVT Registry.

Background: Although transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has demonstrated favorable outcomes in randomized studies, there remains a sizable group of patients in whom TAVR may be futile. Characterizing the survival rate in a wide array of patients undergoing TAVR can help develop effective strategies for improving the allocation of medial resources. Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a risk model to estimate 1-year mortality after TAVR from a representative nationwide registry in Japan. Methods: The J-TVT (Japan Transcatheter Valve Therapies) registry contains complete data, including 1-year outcomes, on patients undergoing TAVR in Japan. A total of 17,655 patients underwent TAVR between 2013 and 2018. They were randomly divided into 2 groups in a 7:3 ratio to form a derivation cohort of 12,316 patients and a validation cohort of 5,339 patients. A risk model was constructed for 1-year mortality in the derivation cohort, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed in the validation cohort. Results: The mean age of all registered patients was 84.4 years, and 68.8% were women. The mean body size area was 1.43 m2, and the mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score was 7.3%. The estimated 1-year survival was 91.8%; 202 and 1,316 deaths were observed at 30 days and 1 year, respectively; The estimated C index for the developed model was 0.733 (95% CI: 0.709-0.757) in the validation cohort, with good calibration. Conclusions: A prediction model for 1-year survival following TAVR derived from a national clinical database performed well and should aid physicians managing TAVR patients.

The combination of Euroscore II with a new variable "Nongraftable coronary artery lesions" improves the discriminating power of the test in surgical patients with postinfarction ventricular septal defect and ventricular aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish whether Euroscore II can be used for the prediction of hospital mortality in surgical patients with postinfarction intraventricular septal defect (PIVSD) and ventricular aneurysm (VA), and coexisting coronary artery lesions (CALs), and identify perioperative mortality risk factors to improve the discriminating power of Euroscore II. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study. The inclusion criterion was PIVSD. Exclusion criteria were previous CABG, conservative treatment, percutaneous transcatheter closure of PIVSDs, and PIVSDs with normal coronary arteries on coronary angiography. RESULTS: Among 53 patients with PIVSDs and VAs who met eligibility criteria, 12 (22.6%) patients died in the hospital. Logistic regression demonstrated that Euroscore II was associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.23; p = .006), well-calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 (8) = 9.75; p = .283), and had fair discriminating power, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 77% (95% CI: 58%-96%). A newly identified variable "Nongraftable CALs" was associated with in-hospital mortality (OR = 6.65; 95% CI: 1.24-35.53; p = .027), and had a fair discriminating power, AUC = 70% (95% CI: 54%-85%). When Euroscore II and Nongraftable CALs were combined, the discriminating power of the test increased to 83% (95% CI: 71%-95%), p = .036. CONCLUSION: Euroscore II has adequate discriminating power and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality of surgical patients with PIVSDs and VAs. The combination of Euroscore II with a new variable "Nongraftable CALs" significantly improves the performance of the model.