The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis.

Background: The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises. Methods: We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios. Findings: Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures. Interpretation: SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Disputa do fundo público em tempos de pandemia no Brasil / Public fund dispute in times of pandemic in Brazil

Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar a execução orçamentária dos recursos do fundo público destinados especificamente para ações de combate à COVID--19, no âmbito do estado de calamidade pública que o Brasil vivencia, problematizando com a política de austeridade fiscal, em particular, os efeitos da Emenda Constitucional 95 nos gastos públicos. Para tanto, realizou-se um levantamento da execução orçamentária no sistema SIGA Brasil do Senado Fe-deral e nos dados orçamentários disponibilizados no Painel Covid pelo Instituto Fiscal Independente (IFI). Os resultados da análise demonstram que as políticas de austeridade vêm ocasionando um efeito devastador nos gastos públicos brasileiro, implodindo a estrutura de recursos vinculados às políticas sociais definida na Constituição Federal de 1988. A execução das ações orçamentárias referentes ao novo coronavírus estão aquém do necessário, sobretudo, na política de saúde pública. O fundo público que o prioriza o pagamento de juros da dívida pública tem se mostrado insuficiente para fazer frente aos desafios e efeitos do agravamento das desigualdades sociais, do desemprego e fome que assola o país em tempos de pandemia no Brasil.

This article aims to analyze the budgetary execution of public funds resources specifically destined for actions to combat Covid-19, within the scope of the state of public calamity that Brazil is experiencing, problematizing the policy of fiscal austerity, in particular, the effects EC 95 in public spending. To this end, it carried out a survey of budgetary execution in the SIGA Brasil system of the Federal Senate and budgetary data made available on the Covid Panel by the Independent Fiscal Institute. The results of the analysis demonstrate that auste-rity policies have been causing a devastating effect on Brazilian social spending, imploding the structure of resources linked to social policies defined in the 1988 Constitution. The execution of budgetary actions related to the new corona virus is below what is necessary, especially in public health policy. The public fund that prioritizes the payment of interest on public debt has proved insufficient to face the challenges and effects of the worsening social inequalities, unemployment and hunger that plagues the country in times of pandemic in Brazil

'It's like they make it difficult for you on purpose': Barriers to property tax relief and foreclosure prevention in Detroit, Michigan.

All U.S. states permit local governments to recover unpaid property taxes through a tax lien foreclosure process. Tax relief policies can reduce household tax burdens and prevent the foreclosure of owner-occupied homes, but little is known about their use and effectiveness. Like other cities, Detroit, Michigan, experienced a rise in tax foreclosures following the 2008 deep recession. Michigan law requires cities to exempt low-income homeowners from some or all of their property tax obligation. Implementation of this policy, the Poverty Tax Exemption, nevertheless failed to protect many low-income homeowners from dispossession through tax foreclosure. State-mandated and locally-determined procedures placed the burden of learning about and applying for the exemption on financially stressed homeowners, restricting widespread access to this critical tax relief. Eliminating institutional barriers to tax relief can prevent many owner-occupied tax foreclosures, especially in cities where a high need for tax relief occurs under local conditions of fiscal austerity.

Erosão orçamentário-financeira dos direitos sociais na Constituição de 1988 / Budgetary-financial erosion of social rights in the Constitution of 1988

Resumo Ao longo das três décadas de vigência da Constituição Federal, redesenhos normativos e fiscais foram introduzidos pela União nas garantias de organização federativa solidária e de custeio dos direitos sociais, a pretexto de resguardar a sustentabilidade intertemporal da dívida pública brasileira. Para equalizar a tensão entre estabilidade econômica e efetividade dos direitos sociais e sua repercussão para o processo de endividamento, foram mitigados paulatinamente os pisos de custeio da saúde e educação e o orçamento da seguridade social, os quais operavam, tanto no campo simbólico, quanto no pragmático, como uma espécie de contrapeso fiscal à necessidade de custo alegadamente ilimitado para as políticas monetária e cambial. Desvincular receitas, reduzir o escopo dos regimes de gasto mínimo e restringir o alcance interpretativo de transferências intergovernamentais equalizadoras das distorções federativas tornou-se estratégia, assumida - direta ou indiretamente - pela União desde o início da década de 1990, de estabilização macroeconômica, sobretudo, monetária. Assim tem sido empreendido um longo e ainda atual processo de desconstrução orçamentário-financeira dos direitos sociais, que restringe a identidade estrutural da CF/1988, a pretexto de consolidação fiscal cada vez mais exigente da redução do tamanho do Estado.

Abstract Throughout the three decades of the Federal Constitution, normative and fiscal redesigns were introduced by the Union in the guarantees of solidary federative organization and of social rights costing, under the pretext of safeguarding the intertemporal sustainability of the Brazilian public debt. In order to equalize the tension between economic stability and the effectiveness of social rights and their repercussion for the indebtedness process, the health and education minimum spending and the social security budget were gradually mitigated, which operated both in the symbolic field and in the pragmatic, as a kind of fiscal balance to the need for allegedly unlimited cost for monetary and cambial policies. Unlink taxes, reduce the scope of minimum spending regimes and restrict the interpretative scope of intergovernmental equalization transfers of federative distortions has become a strategy, assumed - directly or indirectly - by the Union since the early 1990s, of macroeconomic stabilization policy, above all, monetary. Thus, a long and still ongoing process of budgetary and financial deconstruction of social rights has been undertaken, which restricts the structural identity of the FC/1988, under the pretext of increasingly demanding fiscal consolidation of the reduction of the size of the state.

The impact of Brexit on the future of UK forensic science and technology.

This article seeks to assess the prospects of UK forensic science and technology in a post-Brexit world by analysing four interlocking issues: Brexit itself, the evolution of national criminal justice organisational and funding priorities, the increasing interrelationship of science and technology in the forensic domain and the relatively disadvantaged place of forensic science and technology within the contemporary 'scientific state' paradigm. The results are generally pessimistic for the likely future of forensic science. This conclusion is reinforced by scepticism about the wisdom of proceeding with Brexit. The article is structured to identify the potential implications of British political decisions on its national forensic science capabilities and capacity. Some aspects of the analysis are likely to have a wider resonance for international discourse about the future sustainability of forensic science and technology, however, particularly the interface between the globalisation of science and technology with justice.

The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide mortality: Evidence across the 'Eurozone periphery'.

While linkages between some macroeconomic phenomena and suicides in some countries have been explored, only two studies, hitherto, have established a causal relationship between fiscal austerity and suicide, albeit in a single country. The aim of this study is to provide the first systematic multiple-country evidence of a causal relationship of fiscal austerity on time-, gender-, and age-specific suicide mortality across five Eurozone peripheral countries, namely Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain over the period 1968-2012, while controlling for various socioeconomic differences. The impact of fiscal adjustments is found to be gender-, age- and time-specific. Specifically, fiscal austerity has short-, medium- and long-run suicide increasing effects on the male population in the 65-89 age group. A 1% reduction in government spending is associated with a 1.38%, 2.42% and 3.32% increase in the short-, medium- and long-run, respectively, of male suicides rates in the 65-89 age group in the Eurozone periphery. These results are highly robust to alternative measures of fiscal austerity. Improved labour market institutions help mitigate the negative effects of fiscal austerity on suicide mortality.

The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide: on the empirics of a modern Greek tragedy.

Suicide rates in Greece (and other European countries) have been on a remarkable upward trend following the global recession of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2009. However, recent investigations of the impact on Greek suicide rates from the 2008 financial crisis have restricted themselves to simple descriptive or correlation analyses. Controlling for various socio-economic effects, this study presents a statistically robust model to explain the influence on realised suicidality of the application of fiscal austerity measures and variations in macroeconomic performance over the period 1968-2011. The responsiveness of suicide to levels of fiscal austerity is established as a means of providing policy guidance on the extent of suicide behaviour associated with different fiscal austerity measures. The results suggest (i) significant age and gender specificity in these effects on suicide rates and that (ii) remittances have suicide-reducing effects on the youth and female population. These empirical regularities potentially offer some guidance on the demographic targeting of suicide prevention measures and the case for 'economic' migration.