The female population of Chile, 1855-1964: a microcomputer balance sheet method.

PIP: This article summarizes the essential features of the inverse projection method and applies it to data on the female population of Chile for the period 1855-1964. Changes in age distribution, vital rates, life expectancy, fertility, and gross and net reproduction rates over time are described.^ieng

Recent fertility trends in Suriname.

PIP: A rapid decline in fertility took place in Suriname between 1962 and 1974, and then stopped. While this sudden stabilization is surprising, it is not unusual. Similar trends have occurred in some Caribbean and Latin American countries. This article analyzes the post-1960 trend in fertility in Suriname and seeks to determine whether the 1962-74 fertility decline resulted from changes in socioeconomic conditions or was caused by the activities of the Suriname Family Planning Association. The measures used are the general fertility rate, the total fertility rate by ethnic group as well as by 5-year age groups, and gross and net reproduction rates by ethnic group. All the measures point to a rapid continuing decline of fertility between 1962 and 1974, followed by a rise. The data suggest that major socioeconomic changes had already been under way for some years, when fertility started to fall in 1962. The Suriname Family Planning Association was not founded until 1968, which implies that the organization did not start the decrease. However, once the organization was founded, it continually expanded its activities and made an obvious contribution to the use of contraceptives that increased significantly in the 1970s. It is concluded that the drop in fertility resulted from the process of modernization along with the rapid increase in the use of contraceptives.^ieng

[Robust estimation of fertility by the use of model stable populations]. / Estimacion robusta de la fecundidad mediante el empleo de modelos de poblaciones estables

"If we know the proportion of population under 15 years of age, the probability of newborns to reach 5 years of age and the rate of growth of that population, by means of a very simple procedure we can estimate the birth rate, the growth reproduction rate and the total fertility rate through the appropriate use of stable population models. Even if the real population is far from being a stable population the estimates are very little affected, which shows the robustness of the procedure." (summary in ENG)

[Recent fertility levels]. / Niveles recientes de fecundidad.

PIP: The author has studied the evolution of 2 fecundity measures, the gross rate of natality and the gross rate of reproduction. The 1st measure decreased 44.8% in the last year of the study (1978) and represented 95,826 less births. It is pointed out how this indicator has decreased in all provinces of the country which usually have high rates of fecundity. In order to establish comparisons among countries, the gross reproduction rate is used, and its evolution in 7 countries is observed during the 1970-78 period. The lower figures are registered in the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic (GDR). First, all figures of the period below 1 and with the steady decrease are reported, while the GDR shows a certain trend to the recovery of birth rate since 1976. Hungary has the most irregular behavior although the total birth rate again falls since 1976. Graphs from Cuba show a constant fall in fecundity levels which was interrupted only in 1971, until the decrease below 1 came in 1978. Cuba is the country that has the most sensible reduction of fecundity and has shown the most remarkable difference (0.89) between the initial and final rates during the period of analysis. (author's)^ieng