Nowcasting methods to improve the performance of respiratory sentinel surveillance: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Respiratory diseases, including influenza and coronaviruses, pose recurrent global threats. This study delves into the respiratory surveillance systems, focusing on the effectiveness of SARI sentinel surveillance for total and severe cases incidence estimation. Leveraging data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile, we examined 2020-2023 data (a 159-week period) comparing census surveillance results of confirmed cases and hospitalizations, with sentinel surveillance. Our analyses revealed a consistent underestimation of total cases and an overestimation of severe cases of sentinel surveillance. To address these limitations, we introduce a nowcasting model, improving the precision and accuracy of incidence estimates. Furthermore, the integration of genomic surveillance data significantly enhances model predictions. While our findings are primarily focused on COVID-19, they have implications for respiratory virus surveillance and early detection of respiratory epidemics. The nowcasting model offers real-time insights into an outbreak for public health decision-making, using the same surveillance data that is routinely collected. This approach enhances preparedness for emerging respiratory diseases by the development of practical solutions with applications in public health.

Clinical and molecular characterization of children and adults with respiratory bocavirus infection in Mexico: a cross-sectional nested study within the ILI002 prospective observational study.

Background: Human Bocaviruses (HBoV) can cause acute respiratory tract infections. High coinfection rates cloud its pathogenicity. This study sought to describe the clinical features of HBoV1 disease in children and adults with Influenza-like illness (ILI), exploring associations between viral load, clinical features, and seasonality. Methods: Patients who tested positive for HBoV1 by polymerase chain reaction, enrolled from April 2010 to March 2014 in the ILI002 prospective observational cohort study were included in this cross-sectional nested study. Participants were included in ILI002 if they presented with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of influenza-like illness. Samples were tested for viral load, and NP1 and VP1/VP2 phylogenetic analyses, except for the samples lacking suitable and viable clinical material for genotyping. Findings: We identified HBoV1 in 157 (2.8%) of participants. Prevalence was 4.5% in children and 1.8% in adults. Single HBoV1 detection occurred in 41.1% and 46.3% of children and adults, respectively. Children commonly experienced fever (83.3%), cough with sputum (74.4%), and shortness of breath (72.2%). In the multivariate analysis of children, significant positive associations were detected between viral loads and age (0.20 [95% CI: 0.07, 0.33]), and the presence of fever (2.64 [95% CI: 1.35, 3.94]), nasal congestion (1.03 [95% CI: 0.07, 1.99]), dry cough (1.32 [95% CI: 0.42, 2.22]), chest congestion (1.57 [95% CI: 0.33, 2.80]), red eyes (1.25 [95% CI: 0.35, 2.14]), cough with sputum (1.79 [95% CI: 0.80, 2.78]), and other signs and symptoms such as chills, dizziness, and diaphoresis (1.73 [95% CI: 0.19, 3.27]). In contrast, significant negative associations were found between viral loads and percent neutrophils on the blood count (-0.04 [95% CI: -0.06, -0.02]), fatigue (-1.60 [95% CI: -2.46, -0.74]) and the presence of other symptoms or signs, including adenopathy and rash (-1.26 [95% CI: -2.31, -0.21]). Adults commonly experienced sore throat (73.1%), fatigue (77.4%), and headache (73.1%). In the multivariate analysis of adults, significant positive associations were detected between viral load and body mass index (0.13 [95% CI: 0.04, 0.21]), and the presence of confusion (1.54 [95% CI: 0.55, 2.53]), and sore throat (1.03 [95% CI: 0.20, 1.85]), and significant negative associations were detected between viral load and chest congestion (-1.16 [95% CI: -2.07, -0.24]). HBoV1 was detected throughout the year irrespective of season, temperature, and humidity. Interpretation: This study demonstrated the importance of detecting HBoV1 in patients with influenza-like illness either as single infection or co-infection, in both adults and children, and improves the characterization of HBoV1 seasonality, clinical features, and viral load. Phylogenetic analyses show a high conservation. Funding: The Mexican Emerging Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Network (LaRed), CONACYT (Fondo Sectorial SSA/IMSS/ISSSTE, Projects No. 71260 and No. 127088), Fondos federales no. HIM/2015/006, NIAID, NIH through a contract with Westat, Inc. (HHSN2722009000031, HHSN27200002), NCI, NIH (75N91019D00024, 75N91019F00130). Additional information at the end of the manuscript.

The influenza season 2016/17 in Bucharest, Romania - surveillance data and clinical characteristics of patients with influenza-like illness admitted to a tertiary infectious diseases hospital.

BACKGROUND: Influenza continues to drive seasonal morbidity, particularly in settings with low vaccine coverage. OBJECTIVES: To describe the influenza cases and viral circulation among hospitalized patients. METHODS: A prospective study based on active surveillance of inpatients with influenza-like illness from a tertiary hospital in Bucharest, Romania, in the season 2016/17. RESULTS: A total of 446 patients were tested, with a balanced gender distribution. Overall, 192 (43%) patients tested positive for influenza, with the highest positivity rate in the age groups 3-13 years and >65 years. Peak activity occurred between weeks 1 and 16/2017, with biphasic distribution: A viruses were replaced by B viruses from week 9/2017; B viruses predominated (66.1%). Among the 133 (69.3%) subtyped samples, all influenza A were subtype H3 (n=57) and all influenza B were B/Victoria (n=76). Patients who tested positive for influenza presented fewer comorbidities (p=0.012), except for the elderly, in whom influenza was more common in patients with comorbidities (p=0.050). Disease evolution was generally favorable under antiviral treatment. The length of hospital stay was slightly longer in patients with influenza-like illness who tested patients negative for influenza (p=0.031). CONCLUSIONS: Distinctive co-circulation of A/H3 and B/Victoria in Bucharest, Romania in the 2016/17 influenza season was found. While the A/H3 subtype was predominant throughout Europe that season, B/Victoria appears to have circulated specifically in Romania and the Eastern European region, predominantly affecting preschoolers and school children.

The influenza season 2016/17 in Bucharest, Romania - surveillance data and clinical characteristics of patients with influenza-like illness admitted to a tertiary infectious diseases hospital

ABSTRACT Background: Influenza continues to drive seasonal morbidity, particularly in settings with low vaccine coverage. Objectives: To describe the influenza cases and viral circulation among hospitalized patients. Methods: A prospective study based on active surveillance of inpatients with influenza-like illness from a tertiary hospital in Bucharest, Romania, in the season 2016/17. Results: A total of 446 patients were tested, with a balanced gender distribution. Overall, 192 (43%) patients tested positive for influenza, with the highest positivity rate in the age groups 3-13 years and >65 years. Peak activity occurred between weeks 1 and 16/2017, with biphasic distribution: A viruses were replaced by B viruses from week 9/2017; B viruses predominated (66.1%). Among the 133 (69.3%) subtyped samples, all influenza A were subtype H3 (n = 57) and all influenza B were B/Victoria (n = 76). Patients who tested positive for influenza presented fewer comorbidities (p = 0.012), except for the elderly, in whom influenza was more common in patients with comorbidities (p = 0.050). Disease evolution was generally favorable under antiviral treatment. The length of hospital stay was slightly longer in patients with influenza-like illness who tested patients negative for influenza (p = 0.031). Conclusions: Distinctive co-circulation of A/H3 and B/Victoria in Bucharest, Romania in the 2016/17 influenza season was found. While the A/H3 subtype was predominant throughout Europe that season, B/Victoria appears to have circulated specifically in Romania and the Eastern European region, predominantly affecting preschoolers and school children.

Enterovirus-71 genotype C isolated in Peru between 2006 and 2009.

Enterovirus-71 (EV71) was first isolated in California, United States in 1969, belongs to the genus Enterovirus, family Picornaviridae. Although infection normally causes mild, often undiagnosed illness, it can cause central nervous system infections that could turn fatal. Based on VP1 gene analysis, EV71 has been classified into six separate genotypes. Although the molecular epidemiology of EV71 has been well described via studies originating from Asia and Europe, it is mostly unknown in South America. From our study, four EV71 isolates from Peru were characterized using phylogenetic methods to determine their relationship with known reference strains. These four Peruvian EV71 isolates from between 2006 and 2009 were analyzed by RT-PCR using primers capable of amplifying the entire VP1 gene. Reference strains representing all six known genotypes were used to determine any recognizable phylogenetic relationships. In fact, all of our isolates clustered together within the genotype C1 lineage- separate from Asian, European, North American, and Australian strains. We present evidence that EV71 genotype C1 exists in Peru, and this is the first such report documenting EV71 genotype C1 circulating in South America. Gathering additional isolates will help elucidate a more complete global epidemiological picture of EV71 infections.