Flexible Bayesian estimation of incubation times.

The incubation period is of paramount importance in infectious disease epidemiology as it informs about the transmission potential of a pathogenic organism and helps to plan public health strategies to keep an epidemic outbreak under control. Estimation of the incubation period distribution from reported exposure times and symptom onset times is challenging as the underlying data is coarse. We develop a new Bayesian methodology using Laplacian-P-splines that provides a semi-parametric estimation of the incubation density based on a Langevinized Gibbs sampler. A finite mixture density smoother informs a set of parametric distributions via moment matching and an information criterion arbitrates between competing candidates. Algorithms underlying our method find a natural nest within the EpiLPS package, which has been extended to cover estimation of incubation times. Various simulation scenarios accounting for different levels of data coarseness are considered with encouraging results. Applications to real data on COVID-19, MERS and Mpox reveal results that are in alignment with what has been obtained in recent studies. The proposed flexible approach is an interesting alternative to classic Bayesian parametric methods for estimation of the incubation distribution.

Hypothalamic transcriptome profile from laying period to incubation period of Changshun green-shell laying hens.

Incubation behavior in chickens is closely associated with hypothalamus. Here, RNA sequencing of hypothalamus from Changshun green-shell laying hens, an indigenous chicken breed from China, in egg-laying period (LP) and incubation period (BP) was conducted to identify critical pathways and candidate genes involved in controlling the incubation behavior in hypothalamus. A total of 637 up-regulated and 305 down-regulated differently expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in chicken hypothalamus between LP and BP groups. Gene ontology term (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis further revealed that neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, hippo signaling pathway, and focal adhesion were significantly enriched. Five candidate genes (POMC, IGF1R, CHAD, VCL, and MYL9) were suggested to play crucial roles in the regulation of chicken incubation behavior. Our results further indicated the complexity of reproductive behavior of different chicken breeds.

Thermal image evaluation of crop diseases in the incubation period.

BACKGROUND: Early blight is one of the main diseases that causes serious pepper yield and quality reduction. The identification of the presymptomatic features during the incubation period is of great research significance, in that scientific prevention measures in the incubation period may effectively reduce the loss of peppers. RESULTS: The present study confirms the feasibility of the identification of presymptomatic features in pepper early blight by infrared thermography during the incubation period. The infrared thermal images of pepper blades were captured during the whole incubation period in our experiment. Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity (U) and the variation coefficient (C) were established by infrared thermal images for the blade temperature field. Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity U and variation coefficient C of pepper blades change during the time from being inoculated to significant morbidity. For cases of stabbing inoculation, there were no relatively obvious symptoms in visible light images until 96 h after inoculation, whereas some presymptomatic features appeared in infrared thermal images at 60 h after inoculation. Based on the uniformity changes (δU) and the variation coefficient changes (δC) in the temperature field distribution, the characteristic polynomial (CP)-GBDT model has been established by optimizing the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model. Compared with the GBDT mode, the CP-GBDT model accuracy increased from 87.5% to 91.7% on the test set. CONCLUSION: Evaluation parameters such as temperature uniformity U and variation coefficient C can be used to effectively characterize the presymptomatic features of pepper early blight by infrared thermography during the incubation period. The results of the present study can provide a reference for the detection of crop diseases in the incubation period. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS): a two-year prospective cohort study in Israel.

Background: Limited knowledge exists regarding behavioral and biomarker shifts during the period from respiratory infection exposure to testing decisions (the diagnostic decision period), a key phase affecting transmission dynamics and public health strategy development. This study aims to examine the changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS). Methods: We analyzed data from a two-year prospective cohort study involving 4795 participants in Israel, incorporating smartwatch data, self-reported symptoms, and medical records. Our analysis focused on three critical phases: the digital incubation period (from exposure to physiological anomalies detected by smartwatches), the symptomatic incubation period (from exposure to onset of symptoms), and the diagnostic decision period for influenza, COVID-19, and GAS. Findings: The delay between initial symptom reporting and testing was 39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34-45] hours for influenza, 53 [95% CI: 49-58] hours for COVID-19, and 38 [95% CI: 32-46] hours for GAS, with 73 [95% CI: 67-78] hours from anomalies in heart measures to symptom onset for influenza, 23 [95% CI: 18-27] hours for COVID-19, and 62 [95% CI: 54-68] hours for GAS. Analyzing the entire course of infection of each individual, the greatest changes in heart rates were detected 67.6 [95% CI: 62.8-72.5] hours prior to testing for influenza, 64.1 [95% CI: 61.4-66.7] hours prior for COVID-19, and 58.2 [95% CI: 52.1-64.2] hours prior for GAS. In contrast, the greatest reduction in physical activities and social contacts occurred after testing. Interpretation: These findings highlight the delayed response of patients in seeking medical attention and reducing social contacts and demonstrate the transformative potential of smartwatches for identifying infection and enabling timely public health interventions. Funding: This work was supported by the European Research Council, project #949850, the Israel Science Foundation (ISF), grant No. 3409/19, within the Israel Precision Medicine Partnership program, and a Koret Foundation gift for Smart Cities and Digital Living.

Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates.

Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.

Sex differences in foraging ecology of a zooplanktivorous little auk Alle alle during the pre-laying period: insights from remote sensing and animal-tracking.

BACKGROUND: Energy and time allocation in seabirds differ between consecutive stages of breeding given various requirements of particular phases of the reproductive period. Theses allocations may also be sex-specific considering differential energetic or nutritional requirements of males and females and/or sexual segregation in foraging niches and/or areas. In this study we investigated the foraging ecology of an Arctic, zooplanktivorous seabird, the little auk Alle alle during the pre-laying period using remote sensing of the environment and GPS-TDR loggers deployed on birds. We compared foraging trips range and habitats of birds with other stages of the breeding period and between sexes. RESULTS: We found that little auks during the pre-laying period foraged exclusively in cold sea surface temperature zones (with temperatures < 5 ºC) but in various sea depth zones. They dived to similar depths ranging from -4.0 to -10.9 m, exploring various thermal microhabitats (with mean temperatures values ranging from 2.2 °C in Shelf sea depth zone to 5.9 °C in Deep sea depth zone). The majority of foraging trips and dives characteristics were similar to subsequent phases of breeding. However, home ranges during the pre-laying trips were wider compared to the incubation period. As expected, females exhibited wider foraging niches compared to males (wider range of sea surface temperature and sea depth in foraging locations), which could be explained by sex specific energetic and/or nutritional requirements (females producing an egg). We also delineated local foraging areas important for little auks during their whole breeding season. Protection of these areas is crucial for sustaining the local marine biodiversity. CONCLUSIONS: We found that little auks females during the pre-laying period explored wider foraging niches compared to males. These differences may be attributed to sex-specific nutritional or/and energetical constraints at this stage of breeding. The results of this study also emphasize the importance of shelf Arctic-type water masses as the foraging areas for little auks during successive stages of breeding.

Latent and incubation periods of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 variant cases and associated factors: a cross-sectional study in China.

BACKGROUND: The latent and incubation periods characterize the transmission of infectious viruses and are the basis for the development of outbreak prevention and control strategies. However, systematic studies on the latent period and associated factors with the incubation period for SAS-CoV-2 variants are still lacking. We inferred the two durations of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases and analyzed the associated factors. METHODS: The Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 (and its lineages BA.2.2 and BA.2.76) cases with clear transmission chains and infectors from 10 local SAS-CoV-2 epidemics in China were enrolled. The latent and incubation periods were fitted by the Gamma distribution, and associated factors were analyzed using the accelerated failure time model. RESULTS: The mean latent period for 672 Delta, 208 BA.1, and 677 BA.2 cases was 4.40 (95%CI: 4.24 ~ 4.63), 2.50 (95%CI: 2.27 ~ 2.76), and 2.58 (95%CI: 2.48 ~ 2.69) days, respectively, with 85.65% (95%CI: 83.40 ~ 87.77%), 97.80% (95%CI: 96.35 ~ 98.89%), and 98.87% (95%CI: 98.40 ~ 99.27%) of them starting to shed viruses within 7 days after exposure. In 405 Delta, 75 BA.1, and 345 BA.2 symptomatic cases, the mean latent period was 0.76, 1.07, and 0.79 days shorter than the mean incubation period [5.04 (95%CI: 4.83 ~ 5.33), 3.42 (95%CI: 3.00 ~ 3.89), and 3.39 (95%CI: 3.24 ~ 3.55) days], respectively. No significant difference was observed in the two durations between BA.1 and BA.2 cases. After controlling for the sex, clinical severity, vaccination history, number of infectors, the length of exposure window and shedding window, the latent period [Delta: exp(ß) = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.66 ~ 0.98, p = 0.034; Omicron: exp(ß) = 0.82, 95%CI: 0.71 ~ 0.94, p = 0.004] and incubation period [Delta: exp(ß) = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.55 ~ 0.86, p < 0.001; Omicron: exp(ß) = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.72 ~ 0.96, p = 0.013] were significantly shorter in 18 ~ 49 years but did not change significantly in ≥ 50 years compared with 0 ~ 17 years. CONCLUSION: Pre-symptomatic transmission can occur in Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases. The latent and incubation periods between BA.1 and BA.2 were similar but shorter compared with Delta. Age may be associated with the latent and incubation periods of SARS-CoV-2.

Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential.

BACKGROUND: The global temperature has significantly risen in the past century. Studies have indicated that higher temperature intensifies malaria transmission in tropical and temperate countries. Temperature fluctuations will have a potential impact on parasite development in the vector Anopheles mosquito. METHODS: Year-long microclimate temperatures were recorded from a malaria-endemic area, Chennai, India, from September 2021 to August 2022. HOBO data loggers were placed in different vector resting sites including indoor and outdoor roof types. Downloaded temperatures were categorised by season, and the mean temperature was compared with data from the same study area recorded from November 2012 to October 2013. The extrinsic incubation period for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax was calculated from longitudinal temperatures recorded during both periods. Vector surveillance was also carried out in the area during the summer season. RESULTS: In general, temperature and daily temperature range (DTR) have increased significantly compared to the 2012-2013 data, especially the DTR of indoor asbestos structures, from 4.30 â„ƒ to 12.62 â„ƒ in 2021-2022, unlike the marginal increase observed in thatched and concrete structures. Likewise, the average DTR of outdoor asbestos structures increased from 5.02 â„ƒ (2012-2013) to 8.76 â„ƒ (2021-2022) although the increase was marginal in thatched structures and, surprisingly, showed no such changes in concrete structures. The key finding of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is that a decreasing trend was observed in 2021-2022 compared to 2012-2013, mainly in indoor asbestos structures from 7.01 to 6.35 days, which negatively correlated with the current observation of an increase in temperature. Vector surveillance undertaken in the summer season revealed the presence of Anopheles breeding in various habitats. Anopheles stephensi could be collected using CDC light traps along with other mosquito species. CONCLUSION: The microclimate temperature has increased significantly over the years, and mosquitoes are gradually adapting to this rising temperature. Temperature negatively correlates with the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. As the temperature increases, the development of the parasite in An. stephensi will be faster because of a decrease in EIP, thus requiring relatively fewer days, posing a risk for disease transmission and a hindrance to malaria elimination efforts.

Temperature-bounded development of Dirofilaria immitis larvae restricts the geographical distribution and seasonality of its transmission: case study and decision support system for canine heartworm management in Australia.

Dirofilaria immitis is the causative agent of canine heartworm disease. We used the established heartworm development unit (HDU) principle to map the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of D. immitis in Australia using historical weather data from 2013-2022. We found weather conditions suitable for EIP completion showed substantial seasonality and geographical variability. Whilst a considerable percentage of the Australian territory showed suitable weather conditions to always support EIP completion (17%), only 2.7% of the 2021 Australian human population lived in this region. Therefore, 97% of the population lived in an area that changed its EIP suitability within the study period. EIP completion is required prior to D. immitis transmission, meaning that infection risk of D. immitis is seasonal and location-dependent, being disrupted each year for most of the human population's dogs. We developed an online, open access tool allowing us to visualise EIP completion across Australia historically and in near real-time. We aim to support veterinarians to make risk-based recommendations for dirofilariosis prevention by using the tool, available at https://heartworm-mapping.adelaide.edu.au/shiny/.

Pituitary transcriptome profile from laying period to incubation period of Changshun green-shell laying hens.

BACKGROUND: Incubation behaviour, an instinct for natural breeding in poultry, is strictly controlled by the central nervous system and multiple neuroendocrine hormones and neurotransmitters, and is closely associated with the cessation of egg laying. Therefore, it is essential for the commercial poultry industry to clarify the molecular regulation mechanism of incubation behaviour. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing technology to examine the pituitary transcriptome of Changshun green-shell laying hen, a local breed from Guizhou province, China, with strong broodiness, in two reproductive stages, including egg-laying phase (LP) and incubation phase (BP). We also analyze the differences in gene expression during the transition from egg-laying to incubation, and identify critical pathways and candidate genes involved in controlling the incubation behaviour in the pituitary. RESULTS: In this study, we demonstrated that a total of 2089 differently expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in the pituitary, including 842 up-regulated and 1247 down-regulated genes. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis revealed that steroid biosynthesis pathway and neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction were significantly enriched based on DEGs commonly identified in pituitary. Further analysis revealed that SRC, ITGB4, ITGB3, PIK3R3 and DRD2 may play crucial roles in the regulation of incubation behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 2089 DEGs and the key signaling pathways which may be closely correlated with incubation in Changshun green-shell laying hens, and clarified the molecular regulation mechanism of incubation behaviour. Our results indicate the complexity and variety of differences in reproductive behaviour of different chicken breeds.

Estimation of Incubation Period of Mpox during 2022 Outbreak in Pereira, Colombia.

We estimated the incubation period for mpox during an outbreak in Pereira, Colombia, using data from 11 confirmed cases. Mean incubation period was 7.1 (95% CI 4.9-9.9) days, consistent with previous outbreaks. Accurately estimating the incubation period provides insights into transmission dynamics, informing public health interventions and surveillance strategies.

Characterisation and prion transmission study in mice with genetic reduction of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease risk gene Stx6.

Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), the most common human prion disease, is thought to occur when the cellular prion protein (PrPC) spontaneously misfolds and assembles into prion fibrils, culminating in fatal neurodegeneration. In a genome-wide association study of sCJD, we recently identified risk variants in and around the gene STX6, with evidence to suggest a causal increase of STX6 expression in disease-relevant brain regions. STX6 encodes syntaxin-6, a SNARE protein primarily involved in early endosome to trans-Golgi network retrograde transport. Here we developed and characterised a mouse model with genetic depletion of Stx6 and investigated a causal role of Stx6 expression in mouse prion disease through a classical prion transmission study, assessing the impact of homozygous and heterozygous syntaxin-6 knockout on disease incubation periods and prion-related neuropathology. Following inoculation with RML prions, incubation periods in Stx6-/- and Stx6+/- mice differed by 12 days relative to wildtype. Similarly, in Stx6-/- mice, disease incubation periods following inoculation with ME7 prions also differed by 12 days. Histopathological analysis revealed a modest increase in astrogliosis in ME7-inoculated Stx6-/- animals and a variable effect of Stx6 expression on microglia activation, however no differences in neuronal loss, spongiform change or PrP deposition were observed at endpoint. Importantly, Stx6-/- mice are viable and fertile with no gross impairments on a range of neurological, biochemical, histological and skeletal structure tests. Our results provide some support for a pathological role of Stx6 expression in prion disease, which warrants further investigation in the context of prion disease but also other neurodegenerative diseases considering syntaxin-6 appears to have pleiotropic risk effects in progressive supranuclear palsy and Alzheimer's disease.

Caracterización clínica-epidemiológica de COVID-19

Las epidemias y las pandemias son eventos de ocurrencia natural. La aparición de una nueva enfermedad infecciosa supone siempre una situación compleja, sobre todo si lo hace como una epidemia de extensión o gravedad significativa, con el objetivo de describir las características clínico-epidemiológicas en pacientes confirmados con COVID-19. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo y retrospectivo sobre las características clínico-epidemiológicas de los 161 pacientes diagnosticados con esta enfermedad, en el municipio Yara, de la provincia Granma durante el período comprendido de junio de 2020-2021. Se estudiaron las variables: edad, sexo, lugar de infección, presencia o no de síntomas y signos, antecedentes patológicos personales, área de salud y consejo popular. El 60,8% de los afectados fueron del sexo femenino con 98 pacientes y el grupo de 30-44 años de edad quedó representado por 50 pacientes (31.0%); en 150 casos, la transmisión fue mayormente autóctona (93,1%) y asintomática en 86 casos para el 53,4%. De los pacientes sintomáticos fueron las manifestaciones respiratorias, los principales síntomas con 70 casos para el 93,3%, 63 pacientes tenían antecedentes personales de hipertensión arterial (39,1%). El área de salud que más casos notificó fue "Luis Enrique de la Paz" con 106 pacientes para el 65,8% y Yara el consejo popular más afectado con 72 casos (44,7%), la mayoría de los pacientes fueron del sexo femenino, predominó la transmisión autóctona y la presentación asintomática. La epidemia en el municipio Yara se comportó similar al resto del país.

Epidemics and pandemics are naturally occurring events. The emergence of a new infectious disease is always a complex situation, especially when it occurs as an epidemic of significant spread or severity. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical-epidemiologic characteristics of patients confirmed with COVID-19. A descriptive and retrospective study was carried out on the clinical-epidemiological characteristics of 161 patients diagnosed with this disease, in the municipality of Yara, province of Granma. The following variables were studied: age, sex, site of infection, presence or not of symptoms and signs, personal pathological antecedents, health area and locality. Out of the total, 98 patients were female (60.8%), and the age group 30-44 years was represented by 50 patients (31.0%). Transmission was generally autochthonous in 150 cases (93.1%), and asymptomatic in 86 cases (53.4%). Among the symptomatic patients, respiratory manifestations were the main symptom in 70 cases (93.3%). Also, 63 patients had a personal medical history of hypertension (39.1%). Luis Enrique de la Paz was the health area that reported the most cases with 106 patients (65.8%), and Yara was the most affected locality with 72 cases (44.7%). The majority of patients were female; and autochthonous transmission and asymptomatic presentation predominated. The epidemic in Yara municipality behaved alike in the whole country.

Epidemias e pandemias são eventos naturais. O surgimento de uma nova doença infecciosa é sempre uma situação complexa, especialmente se for uma epidemia de extensão ou gravidade significativa, com o objetivo de descrever as características clínico-epidemiológicas em pacientes confirmados com COVID-19. Foi realizado um estudo descritivo e retrospectivo sobre as características clínico-epidemiológicas dos 161 pacientes diagnosticados com essa doença, no município de Yara, província de Granma, no período de junho de 2020 a 2021, as variáveis foram estudadas: idade, sexo, local de infecção, presença ou não de sintomas e sinais, história patológica pessoal, área de saúde e conselho popular. O 60,8% dos acometidos eram do sexo feminino com 98 pacientes e a faixa etária de 30 a 44 anos foi representada por 50 pacientes (31,0%); Em 150 casos, a transmissão foi predominantemente autóctone (93,1%) e assintomática em 86 casos para 53,4%, entre os sintomáticos foram manifestações respiratórias, sendo os principais sintomas 70 casos para 93,3%, 63 pacientes tinham história pessoal de hipertensão arterial (39,1%). A área de saúde que mais registrou casos foi "Luis Enrique de la Paz" com 106 pacientes para 65,8% e Yara o município popular mais afetado com 72 casos (44,7%), a maioria dos pacientes era do sexo feminino, de transmissão autóctone e apresentação assintomática. A epidemia no município de Yara se comportou de forma semelhante ao resto do país.

Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model.

A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2-5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.

Testing a non-destructive assay to track Plasmodium sporozoites in mosquitoes over time.

BACKGROUND: The extrinsic incubation period (EIP), defined as the time it takes for malaria parasites in a mosquito to become infectious to a vertebrate host, is one of the most influential parameters for malaria transmission but remains poorly understood. The EIP is usually estimated by quantifying salivary gland sporozoites in subsets of mosquitoes, which requires terminal sampling. However, assays that allow repeated sampling of individual mosquitoes over time could provide better resolution of the EIP. METHODS: We tested a non-destructive assay to quantify sporozoites of two rodent malaria species, Plasmodium chabaudi and Plasmodium berghei, expelled throughout 24-h windows, from sugar-soaked feeding substrates using quantitative-PCR. RESULTS: The assay is able to quantify sporozoites from sugar-soaked feeding substrates, but the prevalence of parasite-positive substrates was low. Various methods were attempted to increase the detection of expelled parasites (e.g. running additional technical replicates; using groups rather than individual mosquitoes), but these did not increase the detection rate, suggesting that expulsion of sporozoites is variable and infrequent. CONCLUSIONS: We reveal successful detection of expelled sporozoites from sugar-soaked feeding substrates. However, investigations of the biological causes underlying the low detection rate of sporozoites (e.g. mosquito feeding behaviour, frequency of sporozoite expulsion or sporozoite clumping) are needed to maximise the utility of using non-destructive assays to quantify sporozoite dynamics. Increasing detection rates will facilitate the detailed investigation on infection dynamics within mosquitoes, which is necessary to explain the highly variable EIP of Plasmodium and to improve understanding of malaria transmission dynamics.

Identifying Knowledge Gaps through the Systematic Review of Temperature-Driven Variability in the Competence of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus for Chikungunya Virus.

Temperature is a well-known effector of several transmission factors of mosquito-borne viruses, including within mosquito dynamics. These dynamics are often characterized by vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). Vector competence is the intrinsic ability of a mosquito population to become infected with and transmit a virus, while EIP is the time it takes for the virus to reach the salivary glands and be expectorated following an infectious bloodmeal. Temperatures outside the optimal range act on life traits, decreasing transmission potential, while increasing temperature within the optimal range correlates to increasing vector competence and a decreased EIP. These relatively well-studied effects of other Aedes borne viruses (dengue and Zika) are used to make predictions about transmission efficiency, including the challenges presented by urban heat islands and climate change. However, the knowledge of temperature and chikungunya (CHIKV) dynamics within its two primary vectors-Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus-remains less characterized, even though CHIKV remains a virus of public-health importance. Here, we review the literature and summarize the state of the literature on CHIKV and temperature dependence of vector competence and EIP and use these data to demonstrate how the remaining knowledge gap might confound the ability to adequately predict and, thus, prepare for future outbreaks.

Blood meals from 'dead-end' vertebrate hosts enhance transmission potential of malaria-infected mosquitoes.

Ingestion of an additional blood meal(s) by a hematophagic insect can accelerate development of several vector-borne parasites and pathogens. Most studies, however, offer blood from the same vertebrate host species as the original challenge (for e.g., human for primary and additional blood meals). Here, we show a second blood meal from bovine and canine hosts can also enhance sporozoite migration in Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes infected with the human- and rodent-restricted Plasmodium falciparum and P. berghei, respectively. The extrinsic incubation period (time to sporozoite appearance in salivary glands) showed more consistent reductions with blood from human and bovine donors than canine blood, although the latter's effect may be confounded by the toxicity, albeit non-specific, associated with the anticoagulant used to collect whole blood from donors. The complex patterns of enhancement highlight the limitations of a laboratory system but are nonetheless reminiscent of parasite host-specificity and mosquito adaptations, and the genetic predisposition of An. stephensi for bovine blood. We suggest that in natural settings, a blood meal from any vertebrate host could accentuate the risk of human infections by P. falciparum: targeting vectors that also feed on animals, via endectocides for instance, may reduce the number of malaria-infected mosquitoes and thus directly lower residual transmission. Since endectocides also benefit animal health, our results underscore the utility of the One Health framework, which postulates that human health and well-being is interconnected with that of animals. We posit this framework will be further validated if our observations also apply to other vector-borne diseases which together are responsible for some of the highest rates of morbidity and mortality in socio-economically disadvantaged populations.

Dynamics of an SEIR model with media coverage mediated nonlinear infectious force.

Media coverage can greatly impact the spread of infectious diseases. Taking into consideration the impacts of media coverage, we propose an SEIR model with a media coverage mediated nonlinear infection force. For this novel disease model, we identify the basic reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and establish the global threshold results: If the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_{0} < 1 $, then the disease-free equilibrium $ P_{0} $ is stable, and the disease dies out. If $ \mathcal{R}_{0} > 1 $, then the endemic equilibrium $ P^{*} $ is stable, and the disease persists. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_{0} $ is most sensitive to the population recruitment rate $ \Lambda $ and the disease transmission rate $ \beta _{1} $.