The contribution of nearshore oceanography to temporal variation in larval dispersal.

Patterns of population connectivity shape ecological and evolutionary phenomena from population persistence to local adaptation and can inform conservation strategy. Connectivity patterns emerge from the interaction of individual behavior with a complex and heterogeneous environment. Despite ample observation that dispersal patterns vary through time, the extent to which variation in the physical environment can explain emergent connectivity variation is not clear. Empirical studies of its contribution promise to illuminate a potential source of variability that shapes the dynamics of natural populations. We leveraged simultaneous direct dispersal observations and oceanographic transport simulations of the clownfish Amphiprion clarkii in the Camotes Sea, Philippines, to assess the contribution of oceanographic variability to emergent variation in connectivity. We found that time-varying oceanographic simulations on both annual and monsoonal timescales partly explained the observed dispersal patterns, suggesting that temporal variation in oceanographic transport shapes connectivity variation on these timescales. However, interannual variation in observed mean dispersal distance was nearly 10 times the expected variation from biophysical simulations, revealing that additional biotic and abiotic factors contribute to interannual connectivity variation. Simulated dispersal kernels also predicted a smaller scale of dispersal than the observations, supporting the hypothesis that undocumented abiotic factors and behaviors such as swimming and navigation enhance the probability of successful dispersal away from, as opposed to retention near, natal sites. Our findings highlight the potential for coincident observations and biophysical simulations to test dispersal hypotheses and the influence of temporal variability on metapopulation persistence, local adaptation, and other population processes.

Divergent determinants on interannual variability of terrestrial water cycle across the globe.

Intensifying variability in precipitation under a changing climate is projected to amplify fluctuation in terrestrial hydrological cycle, leading to more severe water-related disasters. The connections between interannual variability of hydrological components and factors influencing these connections have not been clearly defined yet. Based on terrestrial water budget from Climate Data Record, we identify dominant factors influencing partitioning interannual variability of precipitation (P) into that of evapotranspiration (E), runoff (Q), and water storage deviation (ΔS) across the globe by employing geographical detector model (GDM). Sensitivities of the variability partitioning to dominant factors are quantified for different hydroclimate regions by linear regression model and law of total differential. Results show that dominant factors influencing precipitation variability partitioning (VP) are different across distinct hydroclimate conditions. Comparing the statistical index (q value) of the GDM, it can be seen that surface air temperature (Ta), snow water equivalent (SWE) and water storage capacity (Smax) are dominant factors of VP in humid, semi-arid and arid regions, respectively. Changes in P variability largely can transfer into Q variability in humid region. The P variability partitioned into Q variability is dramatically reduced in semi-arid region with SWE decreasing, while P variability partitioned into ΔS variability increases with Smax increasing in arid region. Joint effects of Ta and coefficient of variation of precipitation (Pcv) are found to be the most important interaction in determining VP across the globe. Furthermore, warmer temperatures in humid region cause >90 % of the change in precipitation variability to be transferred to Q variability change. In semi-arid region with snowfall, decreased SWE has strong effect on changes in ΔS (30-40 %) and Q (20-40 %) variability. Our findings imply a changing VP and more severe impacts of hydrological extremes under future climate, where intensive changes in Ta, SWE and land cover are projected.

Satellite-derived sandy shoreline trends and interannual variability along the Atlantic coast of Europe.

Monitoring sandy shoreline evolution from years to decades is critical to understand the past and predict the future of our coasts. Optical satellite imagery can now infer such datasets globally, but sometimes with large uncertainties, poor spatial resolution, and thus debatable outcomes. Here we validate and analyse satellite-derived-shoreline positions (1984-2021) along the Atlantic coast of Europe using a moving-averaged approach based on coastline characteristics, indicating conservative uncertainties of long-term trends around 0.4 m/year and a potential bias towards accretion. We show that west-facing open coasts are more prone to long-term erosion, whereas relatively closed coasts favor accretion, although most of computed trends fall within the range of uncertainty. Interannual shoreline variability is influenced by regionally dominant atmospheric climate indices. Quasi-straight open coastlines typically show the strongest and more alongshore-uniform links, while embayed coastlines, especially those not exposed to the dominant wave climate, show weaker and more variable correlation with the indices. Our results provide a spatial continuum between previous local-scale studies, while emphasizing the necessity to further reduce satellite-derived shoreline trend uncertainties. They also call for applications based on a relevant averaging approach and the inclusion of coastal setting parameters to unravel the forcing-response spectrum of sandy shorelines globally.

Increasing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Thailand after the global warming hiatus.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported often throughout the world, producing severe effects on marine ecosystems. However, the spatial pattern and trend of MHWs in the Gulf of Thailand (GOT) is still unknown. Based on high-resolution daily satellite data over a 40-year period from 1982 to 2021, changes in annual mean SST and MHW occurrences across the GOT are explored here. The results demonstrate that during a warming hiatus (1998-2009), annual mean SST in the GOT encountered a dropping trend, followed by an increasing trend during a warming reacceleration period (2010-2021). Although a warming hiatus and a warming reacceleration occurred in the annual mean SST after 1998, regional averaged SSTs were still 0.18 °C-0.42 °C higher than that for 1982-1997. Statistical distributions reveal that there was a significant shift in both annual mean SSTs and annual extreme hot SSTs. These changes have the potential to increase the frequency of MHWs. Further analysis reveals that MHW frequency has increased at a rate of 1.11 events per decade from 1982 to 2021, which is 2.5 times the global mean rate. For the period 2010-2021, the frequency and intensity of MHWs in the GOT have never dropped, but have instead been more frequent, longer lasting and extreme than those metrics of MHWs between 1982 and 2009. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant changes in the SST over the GOT that may lead us to change or modify the reference period of the MHW definition. The findings also suggest that heat transport and redistribution mechanisms in the GOT sea are changing. This study contributes to our understanding of MHW features in the GOT and the implications for marine ecosystems.

Understanding the impacts of coastal deoxygenation in nitrogen dynamics: an observational analysis.

Biological production and outgassing of greenhouse gasses (GHG) in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are vital for fishing productivity and climate regulation. This study examines temporal variability of biogeochemical and oceanographic variables, focusing on dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrate, nitrogen deficit (N deficit), nitrous oxide (N2O) and air-sea N2O flux. This analysis is based on monthly observations from 2000 to 2023 in a region of intense seasonal coastal upwelling off central Chile (36°S). Strong correlations are estimated among N2O concentrations and N deficit in the 30-80 m layer, and N2O air-sea fluxes with the proportion of hypoxic water (4 < DO < 89 µmol L-1) in the water column, suggesting that N2O accumulation and its exchange are mainly associated with partial denitrification. Furthermore, we observe interannual variability in concentrations and inventories in the water column of DO, nitrate, N deficit, as well as air-sea N2O fluxes in both downwelling and upwelling seasons. These variabilities are not associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices but are related to interannual differences in upwelling intensity. The time series reveals significant nitrate removal and N2O accumulation in both mid and bottom layers, occurring at rates of 1.5 µmol L-1 and 2.9 nmol L-1 per decade, respectively. Particularly significant is the increase over the past two decades of air-sea N2O fluxes at a rate of 2.9 µmol m-2 d-1 per decade. These observations suggest that changes in the EBUS, such as intensification of upwelling and the prevalence of hypoxic waters may have implications for N2O emissions and fixed nitrogen loss, potentially influencing coastal productivity and climate.

Recent decline in tropical temperature sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability.

A two-fold enhancement in the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) to tropical temperature interannual variability ( Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ ) till early 2000s has been reported, which suggests a drought-induced shift in terrestrial carbon cycle responding temperature fluctuations, thereby accelerating global warming. However, using six decades long atmospheric CO2 observations, we show that Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ has significantly declined in the last two decades, to the level during the 1960s. The Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline begs the question of whether the sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations at local scale has largely decreased. With state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models, we further find that the recent Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline is barely attributed to ecosystem carbon cycle response to temperature fluctuations at local scale, which instead results from a decrease in spatial coherence in tropical temperature variability and land use change. Our results suggest that the recently reported loss of rainforest resilience has not shown marked influence on the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle. Nevertheless, the increasing extent of land use change as well as more frequent and intensive drought events are likely to modulate the responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations in the future. Therefore, our study highlights the priority to continuously monitor the temperature sensitivity of CGR variability and improve Earth system model representation on land use change, in order to predict the carbon-climate feedback.

Temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake in northern high latitudes during the past four decades.

In the northern high latitudes, warmer spring temperatures generally lead to earlier leaf onsets, higher vegetation production, and enhanced spring carbon uptake. Yet, whether this positive linkage has diminished under climate change remains debated. Here, we used atmospheric CO2 measurements at Barrow (Alaska) during 1979-2020 to investigate the strength of temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake reflected by two indicators, spring zero-crossing date (SZC) and CO2 drawdown (SCC). We found a fall and rise in the interannual correlation of temperature with SZC and SCC (RSZC-T and RSCC-T ), showing a recent reversal of the previously reported weakening trend of RSZC-T and RSCC-T . We used a terrestrial biosphere model coupled with an atmospheric transport model to reproduce this fall and rise phenomenon and conducted factorial simulations to explore its potential causes. We found that a strong-weak-strong spatial synchrony of spring temperature anomalies per se has contributed to the fall and rise trend in RSZC-T and RSCC-T , despite an overall unbroken temperature control on net ecosystem CO2 fluxes at local scale. Our results provide an alternative explanation for the apparent drop of RSZC-T and RSCC-T during the late 1990s and 2000s, and suggest a continued positive linkage between spring carbon uptake and temperature during the past four decades. We thus caution the interpretation of apparent climate sensitivities of carbon cycle retrieved from spatially aggregated signals.

Interannual variability of air-water CO2 flux in a large eutrophic estuary.

Air-water CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments are characterized by high interannual variability, in part due to hydrological variability that alters estuarine carbonate chemistry through multiple physical and biogeochemical processes. To understand the relative contributions of these varied controls on interannual air-water CO2 fluxes in the mainstem Chesapeake Bay, we implemented both hindcast and scenario simulations using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Significant spatiotemporal variability in bay-wide fluxes was found over a 10-year period (1996-2005), where the mainstem Bay was primarily a net CO2 sink, except in drought periods. Sensitivity scenario results suggested substantial effects of riverine nutrient and organic matter (OM) inputs to CO2 flux variations. The high correlations between riverine inputs and upper-Bay fluxes were due to elevated respiration under increased OM inputs. The interannual flux variations in the lower Bay was mostly regulated by the nutrient inputs. Both nutrient and OM inputs contributed to the flux variability in the mid Bay. It is found that the interannual CO2 flux of the mainstem was most sensitive to riverine nutrient inputs associated with the hydrological changes. For each hindcast simulation we computed the ratio of organic carbon turnover time to water residence time (λ), a proxy for CO2 efflux potential, and found that the wetter periods had a relatively lower λ. The variability of mainstem CO2 fluxes can be well represented using a generic function of λ. The model results showed that higher river flows would lead to enhanced CO2 sinks into a large eutrophic estuary by promoting net autotrophy.

Understanding elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring on the slow and interannual timescales.

It is important to examine the physical processes that regulate current CO2 concentrations in East Asia to understand the global carbon cycle. To do this, we begin by defining the difference between East Asian and global CO2 concentrations (East Asian CO2 concentration minus global CO2 concentration), which is referred to as East Asian local CO2 concentration (i.e., EA_LCO2). Then, we examine the physical processes associated with the variability of EA_LCO2 during boreal spring (March-April-May) on the slow and interannual timescales. Our results indicate that there are two key factors leading to elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring; one is higher emissions in East Asia, which mostly explains the increasing in EA_LCO2 on the slow timescales. The other is a cool sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific (La-Nina-like SST), which is associated with an interannual higher CO2 concentration in East Asia than the global mean. Enhanced convective activity in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with a La-Nina-like SST forcing, induces low-pressure circulation in the western North Pacific with northerly winds, leading to suppressed precipitation and cool surface temperature in East Asia. Subsequently, those suppress vegetation growth as well as gross primary product, resulting in relatively high CO2 concentrations in East Asia compared to the global mean.

Spatiotemporal trends of NDVI and its response to climate variability in the Abbay River Basin, Ethiopia.

Woody vegetation plays a vital role in regulating the water budget and energy exchange in the Earth's system. This study aimed at analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its response to Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), rainfall (RF), soil moisture (SM), and temperature (TEM) in the study area. The trends, correlations, and relationships between NDVI and climate variables were executed using Mann-Kendall monotonic trend (MKMT), partial correlation coefficients (PCC), and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods, respectively. Over the last 26 years, the interannual NDVI increased by 0.0065 yr-1 (R2 = 0.159, p = 0.157). The spatiotemporal MKMT and Theil-Sen slope analysis showed that interannual NDVI increased significantly in 78% of the basin's total area. Of the 78% of the basin, 31%, and 47%, of the total area showed extremely significant increasing (Zmk = 4.706, p ≤ 0.01), and significant increasing trends (Zmk = 2.378, p ≤ 0.05) respectively. The interannual variation of NDVI was well explained (R2 = 0.88, Adjusted R2 = 0.84) by the climate variables in the eastern, southeastern, and central sub-basins where agriculture, grass, sparse vegetation and barelands are the predominant land use land cover (LULC) classes. The main climatic factors that control vegetation growth and greenness during the rainy season were found to be PET, SM, and RF with 0.91, 0.99, and 0.86 PCC with NDVI respectively. The current study broadens the scientific community's understanding of the relationship between climate variables and vegetation growth in highland ecosystems. Understanding the seasonal and long-term relationship between climate and NDVI contributes to the scientific knowledge of highland ecosystems, which are extremely vulnerable to climate change.

A coherent status of summer monsoon phytoplankton communities (2017-2018) along the Western Indian continental shelf: Implications for fisheries.

The western Indian continental shelf is characterized by contrasting biogeochemical features from south to north mostly governed by monsoon wind forcing. Here we present the first detailed study on the phytoplankton community (analyzed by marker pigments and microscopy) during the summer monsoon addressing the interannual variability (Aug 2017 and 2018) along the Western Indian Continental Shelf waters (8° N-21° N, at 200 m isobaths). A distinct interannual variability in monsoon impacted the hydrography and nutrient stoichiometry that was further cascaded to the phytoplankton community structure. The timing of the monsoon onset, wind speeds, and the strength of the alongshore wind component were the major factors that governed the interannual variability in the development and progression of the upwelling as well as phytoplankton bloom. The upwelling-dominated southwestern shelf was characterized by cold, nutrient-rich waters dominated by the marker pigment of diatoms, fucoxanthin, and microscopy also revealed the presence of large, chain-forming diatoms (Chaetoceros sp.; Dactyliosolen fragilissimus). In contrast, low nutrient warm waters in the northern shelf housed nanophytoplankton and picophytoplankton along with small diatoms (Thalassiosira sp.) and dinoflagellates (Gymnodinium sp.). Interestingly, in a few stations in the southern shelf, the surface waters were low saline that was intensified in 2018 compared to 2017 inhibiting upwelled water from reaching the surface. Consequently, due to low nutrient levels caused by reduced upwelling and low salinity, picoplanktonic cyanobacteria dominated replacing the larger diatoms that were found plenty in 2017. Likely, such a niche shift adversely impacted the planktivorous fish catch (Indian Oil Sardine) that was seen to be less in 2018 relative to 2017. Any further changes in monsoon variability and freshwater flow to this region may have direct consequences on the phytoplankton community as well as fisheries.

Spatiotemporal differences in riverine nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes and associated drivers across China from 1980 to 2018.

Increases in nutrient loadings to waterways over the past four decades have led to widespread eutrophication and water quality impairments across China. Understanding the spatial, interannual and long-term variations in nutrient loadings and associated drivers at the national scale is crucial for developing effective nutrient reduction strategies. However, the controls on, and spatiotemporal variations in, nutrient fluxes remain a problem from both an academic and management perspective. This study provides spatially extensive and temporally contiguous estimates of changes in riverine total nitrogen (TN), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) and total phosphorus (TP) fluxes for continental area of China based on machine learning stack models and empirical modeling over the period from 1980 to 2018. Results reveal considerable spatial, interannual and long-term variability in annual TN, NH3-N and TP fluxes, with spatial variations in average TN and NH3-N fluxes primarily driven by net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Interannual variability is dominated by precipitation across continental areas of China. Spatial variability in the estimated average annual TP flux in the undeveloped western and the developed middle east regions of China are primarily controlled by net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs and precipitation, respectively. We found that TN, NH3-N and TP fluxes increased from 1980 to 2018 in watersheds in East China; the national mean annual TN, NH3-N and TP fluxes increased before 2015 and decreased after 2015. This study illustrates the important role of precipitation and temperature variability in controlling the spatial, interannual and long-term variability of nutrient fluxes, and indicates that the influence of the meteorological conditions on annual loadings is needed when designing watershed nutrient reduction or management strategies.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Intra-Decadal (2012-2021) Dynamics of Spatial Ichthyoplankton Distribution in Sevastopol Bay (Black Sea) Affected by Hydrometeorological Factors.

High mortality of fish in the early stages of ontogenesis requires the detection of factors affecting it and is an extremely important problem. For this reason, we tried to consider the influence of some hydrometeorological factors on the intra-decadal dynamics and spatial distribution of ichthyoplankton abundance in Sevastopol Bay. To this end, we analyzed ichthyoplankton samples collected in 2012−2021 in Sevastopol Bay, and the four districts were identified. The ichthyoplankton distribution by areas was associated with the peculiarities of the pollution distribution. The maximum numbers in eggs (34.7 ± 7.5 ind. m−2) and larvae (10.0 ± 2.4 ind. m−2) were recorded in July−August. For the first time, a positive effect of temperature and repeatability of north and northeast winds on the ichthyoplankton number during the summer spawning in all identified areas of Sevastopol Bay using principal component analysis (PCA) was reported. In the southern region, positive influence of temperature and northerly winds on the ichthyoplankton abundance was confirmed by ANOVA (p = 0.02), and Pearson's correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between these parameters on inter-annual scale (r > 0.5). In the eastern area, the discharge of rivers is an additional factor affecting the abundance of ichthyoplankton, while in the western and central areas, these factors were the wind characteristics caused by the orography peculiarities. The pollution spread in Sevastopol Bay is also largely due to the wind regime. The importance of comprehensive monitoring studies using intra-decadal data on ichthyoplankton is emphasized.

Interannual variability in particulate organic matter distribution and its carbon stable isotope signatures from the western Indian shelf waters.

Particulate organic carbon and nitrogen (POC, PN, collectively particulate organic matter, POM) and the stable isotopic signature of POC (δ13CPOC) are important to delineate its sources and recycling in shelf water. The present study provides insights into the factors responsible for spatial and interannual variability in POM and δ13CPOC values along the western Indian shelf waters (8° N -21° N) during the southwest (SW) monsoon (August) 2017 and 2018. The dominance of phytoplankton-derived POM with a negligible terrestrial influence was evident from the positive correlation between POC and TChla contents, ratios of C: N, and δ13CPOC signatures. Prominent upwelling signatures [cold nutrient-rich water, higher POM, total Chlorophylla (TChla), and δ13CPOC values] were noted in the south (8-12° N), whereas low nutrient warm waters (lower values of POM, TChla, and δ13CPOC) were prevalent in the north (13-21° N). Phytoplankton biomass was significantly higher and matured in 2017 due to an early and stronger upwelling in the south. In 2018, delayed and weak upwelling (evident from Ekman offshore transport and pumping velocity) resulted in the late development of phytoplankton bloom and lower POM. Furthermore, considerably lower nutrient supply within the mixed layers in 2018 compared to 2017 was partially attributed to the enhanced spatial expansion of low salinity waters closer to the surface. In the north, in 2018, higher wind speeds enhanced vertical mixing resulting in increased nutrient supply and TChla compared to 2017. We conclude that monsoon wind speed in the northern shelf and strength as well as the timing of the upwelling, including freshwater flux in the south, can be the key factors in modulating the interannual variability in POM distribution and δ13CPOC signature in the western Indian Shelf waters.

Influence of atmospheric teleconnections on interannual variability of Arctic-boreal fires.

Fires across the Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ) play an important role in the boreal forest succession, permafrost thaw, and the regional and global carbon cycle and climate. These fires occur mainly in summer with large interannual variability. Previous studies primarily focused on the impacts of local surface climate and tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study, for the first time, comprehensively investigates the influence of summer leading large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics on interannual variability of ABZ fires. We use correlation and regression analysis of 1997-2019 multiple satellite-based products of burned area and observed/reanalyzed climate data. Results show that eight leading teleconnection patterns significantly affect 63 ± 2 % of burned areas across the ABZ. Western North America is affected by the East Pacific/North Pacific pattern (EP/NP) and the West Pacific pattern (WP); boreal Europe by the Scandinavia pattern (SCA); eastern North America, western and central Siberia, and southeastern Siberia by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and eastern Siberia /Russian Far East by the East Atlantic pattern (EA). NAO/EA induces lower-tropospheric drier northwesterly/northerly airflow passing through the east of boreal North America/Eurasia, which decreases surface relative humidity. Other teleconnections trigger a high-pressure anomaly, forcing downward motion that suppresses cloud formation and increases solar radiation reaching the ground to warm the surface air as well as brings drier air downward to reduce surface relative humidity. The drier and/or warmer surface air can decrease fuel wetness and thus increase burned area. Our study highlights the important role of the extra-tropical teleconnection patterns on ABZ fires, which is much stronger than ENSO that was thought to control interannual variability of global fires. It also establishes a theoretical foundation for ABZ fire prediction based on extra-tropical teleconnections, and has the potential to facilitate ABZ fire prediction and management.

Seasonality in the relationship between equatorial-mean heat content and interannual eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature variability.

Interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Atlantic Ocean lead to anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns with important ecological and socioeconomic consequences for the semiarid regions of sub-Saharan Africa and northeast Brazil. This interannual SST variability is characterized by three modes: an Atlantic meridional mode featuring an anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient that peaks in boreal spring; an Atlantic zonal mode (Atlantic Niño mode) with SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region that peaks in boreal summer; and a second zonal mode of variability with eastern equatorial SST anomalies peaking in boreal winter. Here we investigate the extent to which there is any seasonality in the relationship between equatorial warm water recharge and the development of eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies. Seasonally stratified cross-correlation analysis between eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies and equatorial heat content anomalies (evaluated using warm water volume and sea surface height) indicate that while equatorial heat content changes do occasionally play a role in the development of boreal summer Atlantic zonal mode events, they contribute more consistently to Atlantic Niño II, boreal winter events. Event and composite analysis of ocean adjustment with a shallow water model suggest that the warm water volume anomalies originate mainly from the off-equatorial northwestern Atlantic, in agreement with previous studies linking them to anomalous wind stress curl associated with the Atlantic meridional mode.

Interannual variability in mesoscale distribution of Dinophysis acuminata and D. acuta in Northwestern Patagonian fjords.

Dinophysis acuminata and D. acuta, which produce diarrheogenic toxins and pectenotoxins in southern Chile, display site-specific differences in interannual variability (2006 - 2018) in Reloncaví, Pitipalena and Puyuhuapi fjords (41 - 46 °S), Chilean Patagonia. Linear Models show decreasing trends in rainfall and river discharge. Latitudinal decreasing gradients in SST temperature and vertical salinity gradients were observed. A brackish water layer (FW salinity <11 psu), permanently present in Reloncaví, decreased in thickness with time in Pitipalena and was usually absent in Puyuhuapi, the only fjord where D. acuta reached bloom (>103 cells L‒1) densities every season. Dinophysis acuminata, associated with toxin profiles in shellfish that include only pectenotoxins, bloomed everywhere with a poleward increasing gradient. Absence of the FW layer provides a possible index of risk for D. acuta blooms. An apparent poleward shift of D. acuta populations, responsible for DSP outbreaks in Reloncaví in the 1970s, and the recent EU deregulation of pectenotoxins will have a positive impact on the mussel industry in Los Lagos Region. Changes to ongoing monitoring protocols to improve risk assessment capabilities are suggested.

Interannual variability in summer climate change controls GPP long-term changes.

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with implications for the functioning of the Earth system and the provision of ecosystem services. How vegetation responds to a changing environment is an important scientific issue, but there is a lack of coverage of the relative contributions that long-term variation and interannual variability in vegetation across seasons play in ecosystem response to global change. Here, we used four terrestrial ecosystem models provided by MsTMIP to examine four key environmental drivers of gross primary productivity (GPP) change over the period 1901-2010. Our findings showed that (1) for all seasons, interannual variability in climate change are the main environmental factor controlling seasonal GPP variability. (2) Summer is the key season controlling the variation of annual GPP, and its long-term trend and interannual variability can explain 61.50% of the variation of grassland GPP in China. (3) Interannual variability in summer climate change exceeded the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen deposition as the controlling component (more than 40%) of long-term variation in Chinese grassland GPP. These studies highlight the important role of interannual variability in climate in reshaping the seasonality of vegetation growth, and will provide a precursor to future environmental drivers that can be precisely attributed to global vegetation change.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic.

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.