Patient socio-demographics and clinical factors associated with malaria mortality: a case control study in the northern region of Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Ghana is a malaria-endemic country with the entire population at risk. The Northern region of the country recorded the highest malaria case fatality rate (CFR) for two consecutive years: 1.11% in 2013 and 1.07% in 2014. Even though the National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) has achieved a reduction in malaria mortality, the existence of high case fatality in the Northern region was alarming. This study, therefore, aimed to determine the factors associated with malaria mortality in the northern region of Ghana to institute control measures. METHODS: An unmatched case control study was conducted from July 2015 to August 2015. The study population consisted of patients admitted to health facilities for severe malaria in the Northern region of Ghana. A case was defined as a patient diagnosed with severe malaria at an eligible health facility who died as a result of malaria. A control was a patient diagnosed with severe malaria admitted to an eligible health facility who did not die. Health facilities that recorded CFRs of 1.0% and above were randomly sampled for this study, after which, 10 cases and 20 controls were recruited from each health facility. Information on cases and controls was then abstracted from hospital records using an electronically deployed abstraction tool. Continuous variables were expressed as means and medians, and categorical variables as frequencies and proportions. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the strength of the association between malaria mortality and factors predictive of malaria mortality. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In all, a total of 95 cases and 190 controls participated in this study. The median ages of cases and controls were 4.1 years (IQR = 21.6) and 5.7 years (IQR = 18.2), respectively. Fifty-four (56.8%) cases were females, while 93 (49.0%) of the controls were females. Factors associated with malaria mortality included: duration of hospital stay less than 24 h [aOR: 12.0, 95% CI (5.9-24.6)], severe pallor [aOR: 2.3, 95% CI (1.1-4.6)], children under 5 years [aOR: 2.8, 95% CI (1.4-5.6)], oral Artesunate/Amodiaquine administration [aOR: 0.4, 95% CI (0.2-0.9)] and sepsis as an additional diagnosis [aOR: 4.1, 95% CI (1.8-9.5)]. CONCLUSION: Predictors of malaria mortality in the Northern region include children under 5 years, severe pallor, sepsis as an additional diagnosis, and use of oral anti-malarial. Patients with severe pallor and sepsis as co-morbidities should receive proactive management. The NMEP and its partners should implement measures to strengthen the referral system, anaemia prevention and management, and retrain health workers on malaria case management. Malaria control interventions targeted at under five children in the region should be reviewed and enhanced.

Changes in the endemic-epidemic pattern of malaria in Colombia, 1978-2021

ABSTRACT Background: Malaria is a major global public health issue with varying epidemiologies across countries. In Colombia, it is a priority endemic-epidemic event included in the national public health policy. However, evidence demonstrating nationwide variations in the disease behavior is limited. This study aimed to analyze changes in the levels and distribution of endemic-epidemic malaria transmission in the eco-epidemiological regions of Colombia from 1978 to 1999 and 2000 to 2021. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive time-series study using official secondary data on malaria-associated morbidity and mortality in Colombia from 1978 to 2021. Temporal-spatial and population variables were analyzed, and the absolute and relative frequency measures of general and regional morbidity and mortality were estimated. Results: We observed an 18% reduction in malaria endemic cases between the two study periods. The frequency and severity of the epidemic transmission of malaria varied less and were comparable across both periods. A shift was observed in the frequency of parasitic infections, with a tendency to match and increase infections by Plasmodium falciparum. The risk of malaria transmission varied significantly among the eco-epidemiological regions during both study periods. This study demonstrated a sustained decrease of 78% in malarial mortality. Conclusions: Although the endemic components of malaria decreased slightly between the two study periods, the epidemic pattern persisted. There were significant variations in the risk of transmission across the different eco-epidemiological regions. These findings underscore the importance of targeted public health interventions in reducing malarial morbidity and mortality rates in Colombia.

Cross-sectional prevalence and pattern of non-anaemia severe malaria among 2-10 year olds in Sokoto in Northwestern Nigeria.

Malaria is highly prevalent in Nigeria and accounts for approximately 40% of global malaria mortality. However, most reports on severe malaria in Nigeria are from hospital-based studies without accurate information from communities; thus, malaria-related deaths in the community are left untracked. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and pattern of severe malaria in a community in Northwestern Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 2-10-year-old children in Sokoto, in August and December 2016, to determine the endemicity of malaria based on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence rate (PfPR2-10) and to describe the disease pattern. Severe malaria was diagnosed according to the World Health Organisation criteria. Data were described using Stata version 15. The prevalence of non-anaemia severe malaria was higher than expected (2.6%), considering the endemicity pattern which was mesoendemic based on a PfPR2-10 of 34.8%. The mean age of children with severe malaria was 3.73 years, and the male-female ratio was 2:1. However, 54.0% of the patients had hyperparasitaemia. A relatively high prevalence of non-anaemia severe malaria was found in Wamakko. This finding suggests the need to identify and treat cases in the community using modifications of current strategies, particularly seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis.

Effectiveness of rectal artesunate as pre-referral treatment for severe malaria in children under 5 years of age: a multi-country observational study.

BACKGROUND: To prevent child deaths from severe malaria, early parenteral treatment is essential. Yet, in remote rural areas, accessing facilities offering parenteral antimalarials may be difficult. A randomised controlled trial found pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate (RAS) to reduce deaths and disability in children who arrived at a referral facility with delay. This study examined the effectiveness of pre-referral RAS treatment implemented through routine procedures of established community-based health care systems. METHODS: An observational study accompanied the roll-out of RAS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and Uganda. Children <5 years of age presenting to a community-based health provider with a positive malaria test and signs of severe malaria were enrolled and followed up during admission and after 28 days to assess their health status and treatment history. The primary outcome was death; covariates of interest included RAS use, referral completion, and post-referral treatment. RESULTS: Post-roll-out, RAS was administered to 88% of patients in DRC, 52% in Nigeria, and 70% in Uganda. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 6.7% (135/2011) in DRC, 11.7% (69/589) in Nigeria, and 0.5% (19/3686) in Uganda; 13.8% (865/6286) of patients were sick on day 28. The CFR was higher after RAS roll-out in Nigeria (16.1 vs. 4.2%) and stable in DRC (6.7 vs. 6.6%) and Uganda (0.7 vs. 0.3%). In DRC and Nigeria, children receiving RAS were more likely to die than those not receiving RAS (aOR=3.06, 95% CI 1.35-6.92 and aOR=2.16, 95% CI 1.11-4.21, respectively). Only in Uganda, RAS users were less likely to be dead or sick at follow-up (aOR=0.60, 95% CI 0.45-0.79). Post-referral parenteral antimalarials plus oral artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), a proxy for appropriate post-referral treatment, was protective. However, in referral health facilities, ACT was not consistently administered after parenteral treatment (DRC 68.4%, Nigeria 0%, Uganda 70.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Implemented at scale to the recommended target group, pre-referral RAS had no beneficial effect on child survival in three highly malaria-endemic settings. RAS is unlikely to reduce malaria deaths unless health system issues such as referral and quality of care at all levels are addressed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03568344.

Spatio-temporal modelling of malaria mortality in India from 2004 to 2013 from the Million Death Study.

BACKGROUND: India has a substantial burden of malaria, concentrated in specific areas and population groups. Spatio-temporal modelling of deaths due to malaria in India is a critical tool for identifying high-risk groups for effective resource allocation and disease control policy-making, and subsequently for the country's progress towards United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. METHODS: In this study, a spatio-temporal model with the objective of understanding the spatial distribution of malaria mortality rates and the rate of temporal decline, across the country, has been constructed. A spatio-temporal "random slope" model was used, with malaria risk depending on a spatial relative risk surface and a linear time effect with a spatially-varying coefficient. The models were adjusted for urban/rural status (residence of the deceased) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), using 2004-13 data from the Million Death Study (MDS) (the most recent data available), with nationwide geographic coverage. Previous studies based on MDS had focused only on aggregated analyses. RESULTS: The rural population had twice the risk of death due to malaria compared to the urban population. Malaria mortality in some of the highest-risk regions, namely the states of Odisha and Jharkhand, are declining faster than other areas; however, the rate of decline was not uniformly correlated with the level of risk. The overall decline was faster after 2010. CONCLUSION: The results suggest a need for increased attention in high-risk rural populations, which already face challenges like inadequate infrastructure, inaccessibility to health care facilities, awareness, and education around malaria mortality and prevalence. It also points to the urgent need to restart the MDS to document changes since 2013, to develop appropriate malaria control measures.

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.

A systematic review and synthesis of the strengths and limitations of measuring malaria mortality through verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: Lack of valid and reliable data on malaria deaths continues to be a problem that plagues the global health community. To address this gap, the verbal autopsy (VA) method was developed to ascertain cause of death at the population level. Despite the adoption and wide use of VA, there are many recognized limitations of VA tools and methods, especially for measuring malaria mortality. This study synthesizes the strengths and limitations of existing VA tools and methods for measuring malaria mortality (MM) in low- and middle-income countries through a systematic literature review. METHODS: The authors searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Popline, WHOLIS, Google Scholar, and INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites' websites from 1 January 1990 to 15 January 2016 for articles and reports on MM measurement through VA. INCLUSION CRITERIA: article presented results from a VA study where malaria was a cause of death; article discussed limitations/challenges related to measurement of MM through VA. Two authors independently searched the databases and websites and conducted a synthesis of articles using a standard matrix. RESULTS: The authors identified 828 publications; 88 were included in the final review. Most publications were VA studies; others were systematic reviews discussing VA tools or methods; editorials or commentaries; and studies using VA data to develop MM estimates. The main limitation were low sensitivity and specificity of VA tools for measuring MM. Other limitations included lack of standardized VA tools and methods, lack of a 'true' gold standard to assess accuracy of VA malaria mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Existing VA tools and methods for measuring MM have limitations. Given the need for data to measure progress toward the World Health Organization's Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030 goals, the malaria community should define strategies for improving MM estimates, including exploring whether VA tools and methods could be further improved. Longer term strategies should focus on improving countries' vital registration systems for more robust and timely cause of death data.

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: The United Nation's sustainable development goal for 2030 is to eradicate the global malaria epidemic, primarily as the disease continues to be one of the major concerns for public health in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the region accounted for 90% of malaria deaths. Mozambique recorded a malaria mortality rate of 42.75 (per 100,000). In Chimoio, Mozambique's fifth largest city, malaria is the fourth leading cause of death (9.4%). Few data on malaria mortality exists in Mozambique, particularly in relation to Chimoio. The objective of this study was to characterize malaria mortality trends and its spatial distribution in Chimoio. METHODS: Malaria mortality data and climate data were extracted from the Chimoio Civil Registration records, and the Regional Weather station, from 2010 to 2014. The malaria crude mortality rate was calculated. ANOVA, Tukey's, Chi square, and time series were carried out and an intervention analysis ARIMA model developed. RESULTS: A total of 944 malaria death cases were registered in Chimoio, 729 of these among Chimoio residents (77%). The average malaria mortality by gender was 44.9% for females and 55.1% for males. The age of death varied from 0 to 96 years, with an average age of 25.9 (SE = 0.79) years old. January presented the highest average of malaria deaths, and urban areas presented a lower crude malaria mortality rate. Rural neighbourhoods with good accessibility present the highest malaria crude mortality rate, over 85 per 100,000. Seasonal ARMA (2,0)(1,0)12 fitted the data although it was not able to capture malaria mortality peaks occurring during malaria outbreaks. Intervention effect properly fit the mortality peaks and reduced ARMA's root mean square error by almost 25%. CONCLUSION: Malaria mortality is increasing in Chimoio; children between 1 and 4 years old represent 13% of Chimoio population, but account for 25% of malaria mortality. Malaria mortality shows seasonal and spatial characteristics. More studies should be carried out for malaria eradication in the municipality.

Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

The United Nation's sustainable development goal for 2030 is to eradicate the global malaria epidemic, primarily as the disease continues to be one of the major concerns for public health in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the region accounted for 90% of malaria deaths. Mozambique recorded a malaria mortality rate of 42.75 (per 100,000). In Chimoio, Mozambique's ffth largest city, malaria is the fourth leading cause of death (9.4%). Few data on malaria mortality exists in Mozambique, particularly in relation to Chimoio. The objective of this study was to characterize malaria mortality trends and its spatial distribution in Chimoio. Malaria mortality data and climate data were extracted from the Chimoio Civil Registration records, and the Regional Weather station, from 2010 to 2014. The malaria crude mortality rate was calculated. ANOVA, Tukey's, Chisquare, and time series were carried out and an intervention analysis ARIMA model developed. A total of 944 malaria death cases were registered in Chimoio, 729 of these among Chimoio residents (77%). The average malaria mortality by gender was 44.9% for females and 55.1% for males. The age of death varied from 0 to 96 years, with an average age of 25.9 (SE = 0.79) years old. January presented the highest average of malaria deaths, and urban areas presented a lower crude malaria mortality rate. Rural neighbourhoods with good accessibility present the highest malaria crude mortality rate, over 85 per 100,000. Seasonal ARMA (2,0)(1,0)12 ftted the data although it was not able to capture malaria mortality peaks occurring during malaria outbreaks. Intervention efect properly ft the mortality peaks and reduced ARMA's root mean square error by almost 25%. Malaria mortality is increasing in Chimoio; children between 1 and 4 years old represent 13% of Chimoio population, but account for 25% of malaria mortality. Malaria mortality shows seasonal and spatial characteristics. More studies should be carried out for malaria eradication in the municipality.

Assessing the effects of mosquito nets on malaria mortality using a space time model: a case study of Rufiji and Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Although malaria decline has been observed in most sub-Saharan African countries, the disease still represents a significant public health burden in Tanzania. There are contradictions on the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality. This study presents a Bayesian modelling framework for the analysis of the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality with environmental factors as confounder variables. METHODS: The analysis used longitudinal data collected in Rufiji and Ifakara Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites for the period of 1999-2011 and 2002-2012, respectively. Bayesian framework modelling approach using integrated nested laplace approximation (INLA) package in R software was used. The space time models were established to assess the effect of ownership of mosquito net on malaria mortality in 58 villages in the study area. RESULTS: The results show that an increase of 10 % in ownership of mosquito nets at village level had an average of 5.2 % decrease inall age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.948, 95 % CI = 0.917, 0.977) in Rufiji HDSS and 12.1 % decrease in all age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.879, 95 % CI = 0.806, 0.959) in Ifakara HDSS. In children under 5 years, results show an average of 5.4 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.946, 95 % CI = 0.909, 0.982) in Rufiji HDSS and 10 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.899, 95 % CI = 0.816, 0.995) in Ifakara HDSS. Model comparison show that model with spatial and temporal random effects was the best fitting model compared to other models without spatial and temporal, and with spatial-temporal interaction effects. CONCLUSION: This modelling framework is appropriate and provides useful approaches to understanding the effect of mosquito nets for targeting malaria control intervention. Furthermore, ownership of mosquito nets at household showed a significant impact on malaria mortality.

Malaria specific mortality in lowlands and highlands of Muheza district; north-eastern Tanzania

Vital registration of causes of death in Tanzania is incomplete and many deaths occur outside health care settings. Verbal autopsies (VA) are used to determine the underlying cause of death, and the probable diagnosis helps to estimate reasonably cause-specific mortality. In this paper, we report findings of a verbal autopsy survey which involved eight villages in both low and highlands of Muheza district, north-eastern Tanzania. The survey was conducted following.a rapid census, which was done to identify households that had lost one or more members within a period of two years from the date of census. Trained research assistants administered VA questionnaires to parents/close relatives. Two physicians reviewed each report independently and a third opinion was sought where there was discordant report between the two. A total of 9,872 households were surveyed and 134 deaths were recorded. A total of 96 (71.6%) deaths were from lowland villages representing high malaria transmission. Majority (72.4%) of the reported deaths occurred at home whilst 32.1% occurred at heath facility settings. Overall, severe malaria was the leading cause accounting for 34.3% of all deaths. Infants were most affected and accounted for 43.5% of the total deaths. Pulmonary tuberculosis ranked second (8.2%) cause of deaths and was exclusively confined to individuals ≥15 years. Probable cause of death could not be determined in 13.4% of deaths. In conclusion, majority of deaths in rural north-eastern Tanzania occur at home and the immediate causes are usually unknown or not documented. These findings indicate that the verbal autopsy is a useful tool for detecting leading causes of death at community level in the absence of health facility-based data