Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 3 de 3
Filtrar
Mais filtros











Base de dados
Intervalo de ano de publicação
1.
ISA Trans ; 140: 121-133, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37423884

RESUMO

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a setup under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems with infinitely many servers and a Markov chain with time-varying transition rate comprise the very technical underpinning of the paper. Although more general, the Markov chain is as tractable as previous models for exponentially distributed latency and infection periods. It is also significantly more straightforward and tractable than semi-Markov models with a similar level of generality. Based on stochastic stability, we derive a sufficient condition for a shrinking epidemic regarding the queuing system's occupation rate that drives the dynamics. Relying on this condition, we propose a class of ad-hoc stabilising mitigation strategies that seek to keep a balanced occupation rate after a prescribed mitigation-free period. We validate the approach in the light of the COVID-19 epidemic in England and in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, and assess the effect of different stabilising strategies in the latter setting. Results suggest that the proposed approach can curb the epidemic with various occupation rate levels if the mitigation is timely.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Processos Estocásticos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Cadeias de Markov , Brasil , Modelos Biológicos
2.
J Pseudodiffer Oper Appl ; 14(2): 24, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36969910

RESUMO

The purpose of this article is to study new non-Archimedean pseudo-differential operators whose symbols are determined from the behavior of two functions defined on the p-adic numbers. Thanks to the characteristics of our symbols, we can find connections between these operators and new types of non-homogeneous differential equations, Feller semigroups, contraction semigroups and strong Markov processes.

3.
Multiscale Model Simul ; 14(1): 301-322, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27239166

RESUMO

We give a mathematical framework for Exact Milestoning, a recently introduced algorithm for mapping a continuous time stochastic process into a Markov chain or semi-Markov process that can be efficiently simulated and analyzed. We generalize the setting of Exact Milestoning and give explicit error bounds for the error in the Milestoning equation for mean first passage times.

SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA