A system dynamics-based model for the evolution of environmental group events.

Based on the system dynamics theory, this paper establishes an environmental mass event evolution model and explores the evolution law of mass events caused by environmental problems. From a methodological point of view, the mixed-strategy evolutionary game principle and dynamic punishment measures are combined, and simulation analysis is carried out by Anylogic software, and the results show that there is no stable evolutionary equilibrium solution for the two sides of the game in the traditional asymmetric mixed-strategy game model, and after adjusting the game payoff matrix and incorporating the dynamic punishment strategy, stable evolutionary equilibrium solutions appear in the evolutionary game model, and the system begins to tend to be stabilized. The process and conclusions of the simulation experiment provide methodological reference and theoretical support for the analysis of the evolution of environmental mass events.

A self-controlled case series study to measure the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with attendance at sporting and cultural events: the UK Events Research Programme events.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, whilst societies were emerging from major social restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK government instigated an Events Research Programme to examine the risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at cultural events and explore ways to enable people to attend a range of events whilst minimising risk of transmission. We aimed to measure any impact on risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at events held at or close to commercially viable capacity using routinely collected data. METHODS: Data were obtained on attendees at Phase 3 Events Research Programme events, for which some infection risk mitigation measures were in place (i.e. evidence of vaccination or a negative lateral flow test). Attendance data were linked with COVID-19 test result data from the UK Test and Trace system. Using a self-controlled case series design, we measured the within person incidence rate ratio for testing positive for COVID-19, comparing the rate in days 3 to 9 following event attendance (high risk period) with days 1 and 2 and 10-16 (baseline period). Rate ratios were adjusted for estimates of underlying regional COVID-19 prevalence to account for population level fluctuations in infection risk, and events were grouped into broadly similar types. RESULTS: From attendance data available for 188,851 attendees, 3357 people tested positive for COVID-19 during the observation period. After accounting for total testing trends over the period, incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for positive tests were 1.16 (0.53-2.57) for indoor seated events, 1.12 (0.95-1.30) for mainly outdoor seated events, 0.65 (0.51-0.83) for mainly outdoor partially seated events, and 1.70 (1.52-1.89) for mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. CONCLUSIONS: For the majority of event types studied in the third phase of the UK Events Research Programme, we found no evidence of an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission associated with event attendance. However, we found a 70% increased risk of infection associated with attendance at mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. We have also demonstrated a novel use for self-controlled case series methodology in monitoring infection risk associated with event attendance.

Identificação de necessidades na gestão do risco de catástrofe em grandes eventos no Alto Minho: a perspetiva das Corporações de Bombeiros / Identification of needs in the management of catastrophe risk in large events in Alto Minho: the perspective of Fire Departments

A realização de grandes eventos reúne, por norma, um grande contingente de pessoas, pelo que possui implicitamente o risco de incidentes associado. O facto de estarmos perante a presença de multidões gera a necessidade de um cuidado aumentado de segurança e de socorro, isto é, de gestão do risco de catástrofe. O reconhecimento desta realidade, sendo o Alto Minho caraterizado pela enorme profusão sazonal de eventos que atrai e movimenta massas, leva-nos a colocar a questão "Quais as necessidades na gestão do risco de catástrofe associado a grandes eventos no Alto Minho?" Assim, com o intuído de colaborar para uma conduta mais esclarecida, contribuindo para a elaboração de planos de gestão de risco mais ajustados de forma a otimizar o desempenho das organizações de socorro, definimos como objetivo geral, analisar as necessidades existentes na gestão de catástrofe associadas a grandes eventos realizados no Alto Minho, na perspetiva das corporações de Bombeiros. Este estudo assentou numa abordagem qualitativa, exploratória e descritiva, com recurso à entrevista semiestruturada como instrumento de recolha de dados, dirigida a responsáveis das corporações de Bombeiros do Alto Minho. A análise dos dados foi realizada através da técnica de análise de conteúdo segundo a perspetiva de Bardin (2018). Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram a existência de inúmeros grandes eventos, geograficamente dispersos, e alguns deles ocorrendo simultaneamente. Os participantes detêm um conceito de grandes eventos assente na quantidade de pessoas; a intervenção das corporações de Bombeiros a nível do planeamento não acontece de forma homogénea, quando esta se verifica é a nível do planeamento interno, o que denota pouco envolvimento desta força de socorro na gestão de risco de catástrofe. Por outro lado, o grande número de socorros a efetuar em datas de eventos, o trânsito, os acessos difíceis e corredores de emergência pouco viáveis, são percecionados como constrangimentos na prestação de socorro. Os aspetos influenciadores da resposta das unidades de saúde de evacuação evidenciadas são, na opinião dos participantes, múltiplos e variados, tais como a distância entre o local do acidente e a unidade de saúde, a retenção dos meios de socorro nas unidades de saúde, a lotação dos serviços de urgência, entre outras. No entanto, com conhecimento profundo do terreno e das operações, os participantes sugeriram várias estratégias tendo em vista a melhoria do processo de socorro, designadamente: aumentar as equipas a nível hospitalar, descentralizar a resposta, criar condições de segurança, repensar o planeamento atual de forma a sensibilizar, robustecer e antecipar o socorro em vez de reagir. Concluindo, as necessidades existentes na gestão de catástrofe associadas a grandes eventos realizados no Alto Minho são, na perspetiva das corporações dos Bombeiros, marcadas por constrangimentos e preocupações, uma intervenção pouco evidente e resposta das unidades de saúde marcada devido à influência de inúmeros aspetos. Com base na realidade percecionada percebemos a necessidade urgente de uma gestão de risco estruturada, eficaz e adequada.

The fulfillment of large events usually brings together a large contingent of people, so it has implicitly the risk of associated incidents. The fact that we are facing the presence of crowds generates the need for increased care of safety and rescue, or disaster risk management. The recognition of this reality, being Alto Minho characterized by the huge seasonal profusion of events that attract and move masses, leads us to the question "Which are the needs in the management of disaster risk associated with major events in Alto Minho?" Thus, with the intention of collaborating for a more enlightened conduct, contributing to the development of more adjusted risk management plans to optimize the performance of rescue organizations, we defined as a general objective, to analyze the existing needs in the management of disaster associated with major events held in Alto Minho, from the perspective of Fire Departments. This study was based on a qualitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach, using semi-structured interviews as a data collection tool, addressed to the managers of Alto Minho's fire departments. Data analysis was performed using the content analysis technique according to Bardin's perspective (2018). The results obtained showed the existence of numerous major events, geographically dispersed, and some of them occurring simultaneously. The participants have a concept of major events based on the number of people; the intervention of fire departments in terms of planning does not happen in a homogeneous technique, when it happens it is at an internal planning level, which denotes little involvement of this rescue force in disaster risk management. On the other hand, the large number of rescues to be carried out in dates of events, traffic, difficult accesses, and not very feasible emergency corridors are perceived as constraints in the provision of relief. In the participants' opinion, the aspects that influence the response of the evacuation health units are multiple and varied, such as the distance between the accident site and the health unit, the retention of rescue resources in health units, the capacity of emergency services, among others. However, with deep knowledge of the territory and operations, the participants suggested several strategies to improve the relief process, specifically: increase the number of teams at the hospital level, decentralize the response, create security conditions, rethink current planning to raise awareness, strengthen and anticipate relief instead of reacting. In conclusion, the existing needs in disaster management associated with major events held in Alto Minho are, from the perspective of the fire departments, marked by constraints and concerns, a little evident intervention and marked response from health units due to the influence of numerous aspects. Based on the reality perceived, we realize the urgent need for a structured, effective, and adequate risk management.

COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that football matches may have played a role in the spread of COVID-19 all over Europe. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view, the impact of football matches on the spread of COVID-19 remains unclear. In this paper we study, via a quantitative analysis, the case of Italy, a country badly affected by COVID, and one where attending football matches is very popular. We consider the impact of matches played in January and February 2020 on the dynamic of the pandemic in March and April the same year. Our results, which consider all levels of Italian professional football, and the highest level of amateur football, show that matches played in January and February had an impact on the evolution of the pandemic in March and April. These results suggest that great care must be taken before considering re-opening stadia.

Social identity processes associated with perceived risk at pilot sporting events during COVID-19.

Previous research suggests that shared social identification and expected support from others can reduce the extent to which attendees of mass events perceive that others pose health risks. This study evaluated the social identity processes associated with perceived risk at UK pilot sporting events held during COVID-19, including the government Events Research Programme. An online survey (N = 2029) measured attendee perceptions that other spectators adhered to safety measures, shared social identity with other attendees, expectations that others would provide support, and the perceived risk of germ spread from other attendees. Results indicate that for football attendees, seeing others adhering to COVID-19 safety measures was associated with lower perceived risk and this was partially mediated via increased shared social identity and expected support. However, the sequential mediations were non-significant for rugby and horse racing events. The decreased perceived risk for football and rugby attendees highlights the importance of understanding social identity processes at mass events to increase safety. The non-significant associations between shared social identity and perceived risk and between expected support and perceived risk for both the rugby and the horse racing highlights the need to further research risk perceptions across a range of mass event contexts.

Increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark during UEFA European championships.

Denmark hosted four games during the 2020 UEFA European championships (EC2020). After declining positive SARS-CoV-2 test rates in Denmark, a rise occurred during and after the tournament, concomitant with the replacement of the dominant Alpha lineage (B.1.1.7) by the Delta lineage (B.1.617.2), increasing vaccination rates and cessation of several restrictions. A cohort study including 33 227 cases was conducted from 30 May to 25 July 2021, 14 days before and after the EC2020. Included was a nested cohort with event information from big-screen events and matches at the Danish national stadium, Parken (DNSP) in Copenhagen, held from 12 June to 28 June 2021. Information from whole-genome sequencing, contact tracing and Danish registries was collected. Case-case connections were used to establish transmission trees. Cases infected on match days were compared to cases not infected on match days as a reference. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) of transmissions was 1.55, corresponding to 584 (1.76%) cases attributable to EC2020 celebrations. The IRR adjusted for covariates was lower (IRR 1.41) but still significant, and also pointed to a reduced number of transmissions from fully vaccinated cases (IRR 0.59). These data support the hypothesis that the EC2020 celebrations contributed to the rise of cases in Denmark in the early summer of 2021.

Public health impact of mass sporting and cultural events in a rising COVID-19 prevalence in England.

A subset of events within the UK Government Events Research Programme (ERP), developed to examine the risk of transmission of COVID-19 from attendance at events, was examined to explore the public health impact of holding mass sporting events. We used contact tracing data routinely collected through telephone interviews and online questionnaires, to describe the potential public health impact of the large sporting and cultural events on potential transmission and incidence of COVID-19. Data from the EURO 2020 matches hosted at Wembley identified very high numbers of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and were traced through NHS Test & Trace. This included both individuals who were potentially infectious (3036) and those who acquired their infection during the time of the Final (6376). This is in contrast with the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, where there were similar number of spectators and venue capacity but there were lower total numbers of potentially infectious cases (299) and potentially acquired cases (582). While the infections associated with the EURO 2020 event may be attributed to a set of socio-cultural circumstances which are unlikely to be replicated for the forthcoming sporting season, other aspects may be important to consider including mitigations for spectators to consider such as face coverings when travelling to and from events, minimising crowding in poorly ventilated indoor spaces such as bars and pubs where people may congregate to watch events, and reducing the risk of aerosol exposure through requesting that individuals avoid shouting and chanting in large groups in enclosed spaces.

Enhancing Crowd Monitoring System Functionality through Data Fusion: Estimating Flow Rate from Wi-Fi Traces and Automated Counting System Data.

Crowd monitoring systems (CMSs) provide a state-of-the-art solution to manage crowds objectively. Most crowd monitoring systems feature one type of sensor, which severely limits the insights one can simultaneously gather regarding the crowd's traffic state. Incorporating multiple functionally complementary sensor types is expensive. CMSs are needed that exploit data fusion opportunities to limit the number of (more expensive) sensors. This research estimates a data fusion algorithm to enhance the functionality of a CMS featuring Wi-Fi sensors by means of a small number of automated counting systems. Here, the goal is to estimate the pedestrian flow rate accurately based on real-time Wi-Fi traces at one sensor location, and historic flow rate and Wi-Fi trace information gathered at other sensor locations. Several data fusion models are estimated, amongst others, linear regression, shallow and recurrent neural networks, and Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMAX) models. The data from the CMS of a large four-day music event was used to calibrate and validate the models. This study establishes that the RNN model best predicts the flow rate for this particular purpose. In addition, this research shows that model structures that incorporate information regarding the average current state of the area and the temporal variation in the Wi-Fi/count ratio perform best.

[The evaluation of inter-departmental interaction in ensuring sanitary hygienic security under realization of mass events].

The article presents results of assessment of the algorithm of interdepartmental interaction related to complex security during mass events as exemplified by experience of the Department of Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) in the Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan) during the preparation and holding of matches of the FIFA world Cup 2018 and the FIFA Confederations Cup 2017 in Kazan. The structure of management and interaction concerning security issues included three levels: the Federal level, the subject regional level and the regional departmental level. The vertical interaction was carried out on the departmental level as well as between the interdepartmental operational headquarters and regional interdepartmental operational headquarters through their heads. The horizontal interaction was carried out between departments at the subject regional level. The parallel transmission of information on the horizontal and vertical levels of interaction between the headquarters was previously worked out in Kazan conditions of mass events in 2013 and 2015. The model of interdepartmental horizontal interaction at the level of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation provided algorithm of coordination of activities of security on the part of responsible Agency. For operational prevention of possible security menaces and implementation of planned tasks ensuring comprehensive security directly during the mass events the operational interdepartmental management centers composed of representatives of all interested departments in the subject of the city-participant were created. The key areas of activities ensuring security during preparation and holding of the matches of the FIFA World Cup 2018 and the FIFA Confederations Cup 2017 in Kazan were included into interdepartmental plans of actions since the establishment of the coordinating body and at the end of the event, as well as in the minutes of meetings of the established interdepartmental body. The regulations of activities of interdepartmental operational bodies allowed to implement effective interaction in reaching objectives of safety in the subject of the Russian Federation.

Operational and Financial Considerations of Using Drones for Medical Support of Mass Events in Poland.

OBJECTIVE: The implementation of drones in the medical security system requires a proper planning of the cooperation of different services, dividing the area into sectors, assessing potential risks, and other factors. This study refers to the cost analysis of using drones in the medical support of mass events. The aim of this research is to analyze the costs of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) implementation in the mass event medical support system. METHODS: The description includes purchase and maintenance costs of UAVs. The analysis also involves ways of raising funds for projects related to the UAV sector. Apart from the financial aspect, staff and drone operator training issues are the subjects of this analysis as well. RESULTS: This study is based on a specialist research involving drones and referring to reports on the current situation in Poland and in the world. CONCLUSIONS: The presented funds required for such projects and the way of raising these funds illustrate the range of the project and its requirements. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:527-532).

[Large trade clusters as areas of intensified occurrences of states of rapid health worsening in Poland].

INTRODUCTION: In the modern world, people gather more increasingly in large clusters such as shopping centres, markets, cinema centres, operas, ferries, liners, recreation areas and resorts. Such clusters predispose to intensified occurrences of states of rapid health worsening and health hazard. THE AIM: The main aim is to indicate that in trade space, especially in municipal markets, states of rapid health worsening and health hazard appear, as well as to characterize the individual incidents and types of medical interventions. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The empirical material originates from the sheets of records of first-aid concerning life-saving actions, the nurse work register, as well as the security agency reports. Records of first-aid of events taking place during one selected weekend day, for 6 hours of highest population density, underwent a retrospective analysis. The analysis of the material was carried out in terms of reasons of interventions, in states of rapid health worsening and health hazard, as well as the frequency of calls of medical first-aid service. RESULTS: During 2011, there were approximately 100 such states in the municipal markets which underwent the study. In shopping centres there were 95% of such states. In each of the three analysed areas, the internal factors responsible for rapid health worsening constitute over 60%. Among interventions caused by a disease, states related to circulatory system and nervous system occurred most frequently. Big municipal market themselves are potential areas of an increased occurrence of states of rapid health worsening and health hazard. They can be compared to religious ceremonies described in the subject bibliography. CONCLUSIONS: Large trade spaces, especially municipal markets in city centres, generate a high risk of occurrences of states of rapid health worsening and health hazard, in comparison to shopping malls. The risk increases with the age of customers. The incidences related to sicknesses are the majority of interventions in trade areas.

Eventos de massa, desastres e Saúde Pública / Mass events, disasters and public health

O Brasil tem sediado eventos de massa (EM) e seus participantes estão sujeitos a riscos à saúde. Objetivou-se sistematizar as principais relações, de interesse da Saúde Pública, entre eventos de massa e ocorrência de desastres. Foram realizadas três estratégias metodológicas: revisão da literatura de EM, com busca sistemática, sistematização das principais informações sobre EM e seleção e sistematização das Referências que tratavam do tema desastre em suas palavras-chave, título ou Resumo. Foram selecionadas 28 Referências sobre EM, a maioria artigo científico, revisão de literatura, de 2012 e de natureza esportiva. Os principais assuntos abordados foram sistemas de vigilância e planejamento dos EM. Evidenciou-se a pouca informação analítica sobre os EM, bem como a importância de eventos não transmissíveis para a ocorrência de desastres, com destaque aos relacionados à multidão. O risco de desastres deve ser considerado no planejamento dos EM, para aumentar a capacidade de resposta considerando áreas estratégicas como: emergência médica, vigilância de doenças transmissíveis e vetores, segurança alimentar e dos serviços de saúde, saúde ambiental e laboratório. Ressalta-se a importância de pesquisas analíticas e de registro das experiências relacionadas aos EM, para a redução de risco de desastres.

Brazil has hosted mass event (ME) and participants are exposed to health risks. The scope of this paper is to systematize the main relationships between ME and the occurrence of disasters of interest to Public Health. Three methodological strategies were used: systematic search and review of the literature on ME; systematization of the main information on ME; and selection and systematization of the references located for the theme of disaster in the search for key words, title or abstract. 28 references for ME were selected, mostly scientific papers, literature reviews, publications in 2012 and sports events. The main subjects addressed were surveillance systems and planning of ME. There was little analytical information about ME, as well as the importance of non-communicable events for the occurrence of disasters with emphasis on those related to crowds. It is important to consider the risk of disasters when planning ME to increase response time. Strategic areas such as medical emergencies, surveillance of communicable diseases and vectors, food and health service security, environmental health and laboratories should be considered. The importance of analytical research and registration of experience acquired in ME should be stressed for disaster risk reduction.