Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Precipitation explains Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) occupancy patterns in Northern Costa Rica / Patrones de ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque (Hylocichla mustelina) explicados por la precipitación en el Norte de Costa Rica

Abstract Introduction: The Wood Thrush is a migratory bird that has experienced dramatic declines in its populations in recent decades. This species overwinters in forest fragments with intermediate levels of habitat modification in Central America. However, more studies detailing the use of remnant forests through time are needed to elucidate the threats this species faces in the wintering grounds. Objective: To understand the effects of environmental and forest structure variables on the occupancy of Wood Thrush in Northern Costa Rica. Methods: The study area was the Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG), located in Northern Costa Rica, in December 2016, and during the 2018-2019 migration season. We estimated Wood Thrush occupancy and detection probability in four locations of ACG (dry forest, cloud forest, and two locations in the wet forest) using single-season occupancy models. We also estimated Wood Thrush occupancy and probability of persistence in different months in three vegetation types (open area, secondary forest, and old-growth forest) in the wet forest of ACG using a multi-season occupancy model approach. Results: Wood Thrush occupancy was best described by precipitation in the four locations of the ACG; the probability of occupancy increased with precipitation. The average occupancy of Wood Thrushes varied with vegetation type: open area with shrubs and forest edge (0.69 ± 0.09), secondary forest (0.46 ± 0.1), and old-growth forest (0.61 ± 0.1). Wood Thrush probability of persistence responded partially to changes in precipitation, with an unexpected increase in persistence when the rainfall continued decreasing in the season. Conclusion: Wood Thrush occupancy was best predicted by changes in precipitation considering a larger spatial scale. Its probability of persistence partially varied with precipitation. An increase in persistence closer to Spring migration might be explained by the start of the breeding season of resident birds, potentially reducing territorial conflicts and conserving energy before migration. The long-term protection of wet forests in Northern Costa Rica is of paramount importance for the conservation of Wood Thrushes in their wintering grounds.

Resumen Introducción: El Zorzal del Bosque es un ave migratoria que ha experimentado caídas dramáticas en sus poblaciones en las últimas décadas. Esta especie pasa el invierno en fragmentos de bosque con niveles intermedios de modificación de hábitat en Centroamérica. Sin embargo, se necesitan más estudios que detallen el uso de los bosques remanentes a lo largo del tiempo para dilucidar las amenazas que enfrenta esta especie en las zonas de invernada. Objetivo: Comprender los efectos de variables ambientales y de estructura del bosque en la ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque en el Norte de Costa Rica. Métodos: El área de estudio fue el Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG), ubicada en el Norte de Costa Rica, en diciembre de 2016, y en la temporada migratoria 2018-2019. Estimamos la ocurrencia y la probabilidad de detección del Zorzal del Bosque en cuatro ubicaciones de ACG (bosque seco, bosque nuboso y dos ubicaciones en el bosque húmedo) utilizando modelos de ocurrencia de una sola temporada. También estimamos la ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque y la probabilidad de persistencia en diferentes meses en tres tipos de vegetación (área abierta, bosque secundario y bosque primario) en el bosque húmedo de ACG utilizando un enfoque de modelo de ocurrencia multi-estacional. Resultados: La ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque estuvo mejor descrita por la precipitación en las cuatro localidades del ACG; la probabilidad de ocurrencia aumentó con las precipitaciones. La ocurrencia media de zorzales varió con el tipo de vegetación: área abierta con arbustos y borde de bosque (0.69 ± 0.09), bosque secundario (0.46 ± 0.1) y bosque primario (0.61 ± 0.1). La probabilidad de persistencia del zorzal respondió parcialmente a cambios en la precipitación, con un aumento inesperado en la persistencia cuando las precipitaciones continuaron disminuyendo en la temporada. Conclusión: La ocurrecia del Zorzal del Bosque varió con la precipitación considerando una escala espacial mayor. Su probabilidad de persistencia varió parcialmente con la precipitación. Un aumento en la persistencia más cerca de la migración de primavera podría explicarse por el inicio de la temporada de reproducción de las aves residentes, lo que podría reducir los conflictos territoriales y conservar energía antes de la migración. La protección a largo plazo de los bosques húmedos en el norte de Costa Rica es de suma importancia para la conservación de los Zorzales del Bosque en sus zonas de invernada.

New therapeutics for the prevention or amelioration of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders: a narrative review of the preclinical literature.

Background: Ethanol consumption during pregnancy induces enduring detrimental effects in the offspring, manifesting as a spectrum of symptoms collectively termed as Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). Presently, there is a scarcity of treatments for FASD.Objectives: To analyze current literature, emphasizing evidence derived from preclinical models, that could potentially inform therapeutic interventions for FASD.Methods: A narrative review was conducted focusing on four prospective treatments: nutritional supplements, antioxidants, anti-inflammatory compounds and environmental enrichment. The review also highlights innovative therapeutic strategies applied during early (e.g. folate administration, postnatal days 4-9) or late (e.g. NOX2 inhibitors given after weaning) postnatal stages that resulted in significant improvements in behavioral responses during adolescence (a critical period marked by the emergence of mental health issues in humans).Results: Our findings underscore the value of treatments centered around nutritional supplementation or environmental enrichment, aimed at mitigating oxidative stress and inflammation, implying shared mechanisms in FASD pathogenesis. Moreover, the review spotlights emerging evidence pertaining to the involvement of novel molecular components with potential pharmacological targets (such as NOX2, MCP1/CCR2, PPARJ, and PDE1).Conclusions: Preclinical studies have identified oxidative imbalance and neuroinflammation as relevant pathological mechanisms induced by prenatal ethanol exposure. The relevance of these mechanisms, which exhibit positive feedback loop mechanisms, appear to peak during early development and decreases in adulthood. These findings provide a framework for the future development of therapeutic avenues in the development of specific clinical treatments for FASD.

Using applied social science disciplines to implement creative outdoor cat management solutions and avoid the trap of one-size-fits-all policies.

In the United States, policy conflicts have prevented successful population-level management of outdoor cats for decades. Wildlife conservation professionals have sought widespread use of humane dispatch (i.e., lethal culling applied humanely), whereas cat welfare professionals have promoted trap-neuter-return (TNR) (cats are trapped, neutered, and returned to the outdoors). These conflicts represent a policy panacea trap, which we argue drives many conservation conflicts. In these situations, the focus on defending a one-size-fits-all policy fails to account for the value differences that shape the different understandings of the problem and desired outcomes associated with each policy, as well as complexities in the social-ecological system. Over the past 5 years, a group of wildlife conservation and cat welfare professionals codeveloped a set of products that have started to be used to help organizations break out of the policy panacea trap. We used a case study to illustrate how efforts grounded in applied social science disciplines, such as science communication, social-ecological systems, and conservation marketing, can help identify a more robust set of policy options tailored to local management and cultural contexts for successful implementation. Shifting the focus to embrace a shared understanding of the broader system helped us identify areas for collaboration, broaden the policy toolbox, and allow space for policy tools originally framed as opposing panaceas. This work helped prepare all parties to have difficult but productive discussions and address shared policy needs. We suggest that many value-based conservation conflicts would benefit from similar efforts that use applied social science to transform how conflict is addressed, moving beyond policy panaceas that end in stalemate to develop shared understandings of context-specific policies, and to identify opportunities for creative cooperation that yield real conservation progress.

Uso de las disciplinas aplicadas de las ciencias sociales para implementar soluciones creativas de manejo de gatos callejeros y evitar la trampa de las políticas universales Resumen Durante décadas, los conflictos entre políticas han evitado un manejo exitoso a nivel poblacional de los gatos callejeros en los Estados Unidos. Los profesionales de la conservación silvestre han buscado el uso extenso de los sacrificios con humanidad, mientras que los profesionales del bienestar felino han promovido la captura­esterilización­liberación (CEL) de los gatos. Estos conflictos representan una trampa panacea de políticas, la cual argumentamos causa muchos conflictos de conservación. En estas situaciones, el enfoque en defender una política universal no logra considerar la diferencia de valores que forman los diferentes entendimientos del problema y los resultados deseados que se asocian con cada política, así como las complejidades dentro del sistema socio­ecológico. A lo largo de los últimos cinco años, un grupo de profesionales de la conservación silvestre y del bienestar felino desarrollaron en conjunto una serie de productos que han comenzado a ayudar a las organizaciones a salir de la trampa panacea de políticas. Usamos un estudio de caso para ilustrar cómo los esfuerzos cimentados en las disciplinas aplicadas de las ciencias sociales (p. ej.: las ciencias de la comunicación, los sistemas socio­ecológicos y el marketing de la conservación) pueden ayudar a identificar un conjunto más sólido de opciones de políticas personalizadas para el manejo local y los contextos culturales para tener una implementación exitosa. El cambio de enfoque para aceptar el entendimiento compartido del sistema más amplio nos ayudó a identificar áreas de colaboración, a ampliar las herramientas para las políticas y a permitirle espacio a las herramientas formuladas originalmente como panaceas contrarias. Este trabajo ayudó a que todas las partes se prepararan para tener discusiones difíciles pero productivas y para abordar las necesidades compartidas de las políticas. Sugerimos que muchos conflictos de conservación basados en los valores se beneficiarían de un esfuerzo similar que use las ciencias sociales aplicadas para transformar cómo se aborda el conflicto, llegando más allá de las panaceas de políticas que terminan en un punto muerto para el desarrollo del entendimiento compartido de políticas específicas al contexto, y para identificar las oportunidades de cooperación creativa que producen un progreso real de la conservación.

Simulating the efficacy of wolf-dog hybridization management with individual-based modeling.

Introgressive hybridization between wolves and dogs is a conservation concern due to its potentially deleterious long-term evolutionary consequences. European legislation requires that wolf-dog hybridization be mitigated through effective management. We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the life cycle of gray wolves that incorporates aspects of wolf sociality that affect hybridization rates (e.g., the dissolution of packs after the death of one/both breeders) with the goal of informing decision-making on management of wolf-dog hybridization. We applied our model by projecting hybridization dynamics in a local wolf population under different mate choice and immigration scenarios and contrasted results of removal of admixed individuals with their sterilization and release. In several scenarios, lack of management led to complete admixture, whereas reactive management interventions effectively reduced admixture in wolf populations. Management effectiveness, however, strongly depended on mate choice and number and admixture level of individuals immigrating into the wolf population. The inclusion of anthropogenic mortality affecting parental and admixed individuals (e.g., poaching) increased the probability of pack dissolution and thus increased the probability of interbreeding with dogs or admixed individuals and boosted hybridization and introgression rates in all simulation scenarios. Recognizing the necessity of additional model refinements (appropriate parameterization, thorough sensitivity analyses, and robust model validation) to generate management recommendations applicable in real-world scenarios, we maintain confidence in our model's potential as a valuable conservation tool that can be applied to diverse situations and species facing similar threats.

Simulación de la eficiencia de la gestión de híbridos de perro y lobo con modelos basados en individuos Resumen La hibridación introgresiva entre perros y lobos es un tema de conservación por las posibles consecuencias evolutivas deletéreas a largo plazo. Las leyes europeas requieren que estos híbridos se mitiguen mediante una gestión efectiva. Desarrollamos un modelo basado en individuos (MBI) para simular el ciclo de vida del lobo gris que además incorpora los aspectos sociales de los lobos que afectan las tasas de hibridación (p. ej.: la disolución de las manadas después de la muerte de uno o ambos reproductores) con el objetivo de guiar las decisiones de gestión de estos híbridos. Aplicamos nuestro modelo con la proyección de las dinámicas de hibridación en una población local de lobos bajo diferentes selecciones de pareja y escenarios de inmigración y contrastamos los resultados de la extirpación de individuos mezclados con su esterilización y liberación. En varios escenarios, la falta de gestión llevó a una mezcla completa, mientras que las intervenciones de gestión reactiva redujeron de forma efectiva la mezcla en las poblaciones de lobos. Sin embargo, la eficiencia de la gestión dependió en su mayoría de la selección de pareja y el número y nivel de mezcla de los individuos inmigrantes a la población de lobos. La inclusión de la mortalidad antropogénica que afecta a los individuos parentales y mezclados (p. ej.: la cacería) incrementó la probabilidad de que se disolviera la manada y por lo tanto incrementara la probabilidad del entrecruzamiento con perros o individuos mezclados, además de que aumentó la hibridación y las tasas de introgresión en todos los escenarios de simulación. Reconocemos la necesidad de refinar el modelo (parametrización adecuada, análisis detallados de sensibilidad y validación del modelo robusto) para generar recomendaciones de gestión aplicables en escenarios reales y mantenemos la confianza en el potencial de nuestro modelo como una herramienta valiosa de conservación que podría aplicarse a diferentes situaciones y especies que enfrentan amenazas similares.

[Strategies for the prevention and non-pharmacological treatment of obesity. Models of care]. / Estrategias para la prevención y el tratamiento no farmacológico de la obesidad. Modelos de atención.

The prevalence of obesity has increased in recent years worldwide. In this context, strategies for management obesity in primary care are essential. The first step in the treatment of obesity are lifestyle intervention programs. The three pillars of these programs, ideally of high intensity (high frequency of visits), are dietary intervention, exercise and behavioral therapy. There is no universal model of care for patients with obesity, but it must take into account key aspects, such as facilitating the access and adherence of the patient and a multidisciplinary and coordinated care among professionals at different levels of healthcare. The components of the model of care and its format should be defined according to the resources available and the characteristics of the population to be treated.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in Brazil: Construction of a hypothetical-deductive theoretical model / Impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 na insegurança alimentar no Brasil: Construção de um modelo teórico hipotético-dedutivo

The article addresses Brazil's return to the Hunger Map in 2022 during the COVID-19 pandemic. After public policies in 2014-2015, food insecurity worsened from 2016 onwards, intensifying during the pandemic. Social inequality, unemployment, informality and family changes contributed to the worsening. The research used hypothetical-deductive models, based on two national surveys and regional studies. The process involved formulating hypotheses, reviewing the literature, deducing predictions and identifying variables. Two general hypotheses were formulated, relating the pandemic to worsening inequalities and introducing new sociodemographic variables. Contextual variables and impact mechanisms of the pandemic were identified. Contextual and individual consequences include food insecurity, health impacts and widening inequalities. The intersection between food insecurity and social inequalities highlights the need for comprehensive public policies. The rise in food insecurity during the pandemic has had significant implications and will require a long-term, sustainable approach. The proposed theoretical model, represented by a DAG, points out paths and causal relationships between events, highlighting the complexity of the scenario. The study concludes that, in addition to trends prior to the pandemic, the health emergency introduced crucial variables for understanding food insecurity in Brazil. The hypothetical-deductive theoretical model offers a more accurate understanding of the causes and effects of the pandemic.

O artigo aborda o retorno do Brasil ao Mapa da Fome em 2022 durante a pandemia de COVID-19. Após políticas públicas em 2014-2015, a insegurança alimentar piorou a partir de 2016, intensificando-se na pandemia. A desigualdade social, desemprego, informalidade e mudanças familiares contribuíram para o agravamento. A pesquisa utilizou modelos hipotético-dedutivos, baseados em dois inquéritos nacionais e estudos regionais. O processo envolveu formulação de hipóteses, revisão da literatura, dedução de previsões e identificação de variáveis. Duas hipóteses gerais foram formuladas, relacionando a pandemia agravando desigualdades e introduzindo novas variáveis sociodemográficas. Foram identificadas variáveis contextuais e mecanismos de impacto da pandemia. As consequências contextuais e individuais incluem insegurança alimentar, impacto na saúde e ampliação das desigualdades. A interseção entre insegurança alimentar e desigualdades sociais destaca a necessidade de políticas públicas abrangentes. O aumento da insegurança alimentar durante a pandemia teve implicações significativas e exigirá abordagem sustentável a longo prazo. O modelo teórico proposto, representado por um DAG, aponta caminhos e relações causais entre eventos, destacando a complexidade do cenário. O estudo conclui que, além das tendências anteriores à pandemia, a emergência sanitária introduziu variáveis cruciais para o entendimento da insegurança alimentar no Brasil. O modelo teórico hipotético-dedutivo oferece uma compreensão mais precisa das causas e efeitos da pandemia.

Simulating drifting fish aggregating device trajectories to identify potential interactions with endangered sea turtles.

Purse-seine fishers using drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs), mainly built with bamboo, plastic buoys, and plastic netting, to aggregate and catch tropical tuna, deploy 46,000-65,000 dFADs per year in the Pacific Ocean. Some of the major concerns associated with this widespread fishing device are potential entanglement of sea turtles and other marine fauna in dFAD netting; marine debris and pollution; and potential ecological damage via stranding on coral reefs, beaches, and other essential habitats for marine fauna. To assess and quantify the potential connectivity (number of dFADs deployed in an area and arriving in another area) between dFAD deployment areas and important oceanic or coastal habitat of critically endangered leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) and hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean, we conducted passive-drift Lagrangian experiments with simulated dFAD drift profiles and compared them with known important sea turtle areas. Up to 60% of dFADs from equatorial areas were arriving in essential sea turtle habitats. Connectivity was less when only areas where dFADs are currently deployed were used. Our simulations identified potential regions of dFAD interactions with migration and feeding habitats of the east Pacific leatherback turtle in the tropical southeastern Pacific Ocean; coastal habitats of leatherback and hawksbill in the western Pacific (e.g., archipelagic zones of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands); and foraging habitat of leatherback in a large equatorial area south of Hawaii. Additional research is needed to estimate entanglements of sea turtles with dFADs at sea and to quantify the likely changes in connectivity and distribution of dFADs under new management measures, such as use of alternative nonentangling dFAD designs that biodegrade, or changes in deployment strategies, such as shifting locations.

Simulación de las trayectorias de dispositivos de concentración de peces a la deriva para identificar las interacciones potenciales con las tortugas marinas en peligro de extinción Resumen Los pescadores que usan redes de cerco con dispositivos de concentración de peces a la deriva (dFADs), hechos principalmente con bambú, boyas de plástico y redes de plástico, para concentrar y capturar atún, instalan entre 46,000 y 65,000 dFADs al año en el Océano Pacífico. Algunas de las problemáticas principales asociadas con este dispositivo de pesca de uso extenso son el enredamiento potencial de tortugas marinas y otras especies marinas en las redes de los dFADs; los desechos marinos y la contaminación; y el potencial daño ecológico por el varamiento en los arrecifes de coral, playas y otros hábitats esenciales para la fauna marina. Realizamos experimentos lagrangianos de deriva pasiva con la simulación de perfiles de deriva de los dFADs y los comparamos con áreas conocidas de importancia para las tortugas marinas. Esto fue con el objetivo de evaluar y cuantificar la conectividad potencial (número de dFADs instalados en un área que llegan a otra área) entre las áreas de instalación de dFADs y los hábitats oceánicos o costeros importantes para la tortuga laúd (Dermochelys coriacea) y la tortuga de carey (Eretmochelys imbricata), ambas en peligro crítico de extinción, en el Océano Pacífico. Hasta el 60% de los dFADs de las áreas ecuatoriales llegaron a los hábitats esenciales para las tortugas marinas. La conectividad fue menor sólo cuando se usaron áreas en donde actualmente hay dFADs instalados. Nuestras simulaciones identificaron regiones potenciales de interacción entre los dFADs y los hábitats de migración y alimentación de la tortuga laúd en el sureste tropical del Océano Pacífico; los hábitats costeros de ambas especies en el Pacífico occidental (p. ej.: zonas de archipiélagos en Indonesia, Papúa Nueva Guinea y en las Islas Salomón); y en el hábitat de forrajeo de la tortuga laúd en una gran área ecuatorial al sur de Hawái. Se requiere de mayor investigación para estimar el enredamiento de las tortugas marinas con los dFADs en el mar y para cuantificar los cambios probables en la conectividad y la distribución de los dFADs bajo nuevas medidas de manejo, como el uso alternativo de diseños que eviten el enredamiento y sean biodegradables, o cambios en las estrategias de instalación, como la reubicación.

Deductive Care Methodology: Describing and testing modes of care research.

OBJECTIVE: Define the modes of procedure of the Deductive Care Methodology (DCM) in the generation of knowledge about person's health care. METHODOLOGY: Design and test of the DCM modes based on three phases: mapping of the DCM, generation of models from this methodology and testing of the models through studies in a clinical context. RESULTS: The DCM presents five levels of abstraction with three modes broken down to 16 types. The modes are: Philosophical Mode to conceptualize and obtain generalities about reality, Mathematical Mode to operate with generalities, and Physical Mode to operationally verify, validating the results and the predictive capacity of the model. This MDC allows the creation of three models: Knowledge Model about Person Care, an ontology of care, Vulnerability Model about the person and Taxonomic Triangulation Model for knowledge management. All models generate products for computational knowledge management. In addition, the models are applied in teaching and generate research with more than a hundred participations in conferences and journals, of which five impact publications (from 2008 to 2022) classified in the categories of Nursing and Informatics are analysed. CONCLUSIONS: The DCM collects prior knowledge to work with certainties, evidence and applying inferences that do not depend on the number of cases or inductive designs. This research presents a formal structure of the DCM with an interdisciplinary orientation between Health Sciences and Computer Sciences.

Portfólio: percepção de estudantes de graduação da área da saúde / Portafolio: percepción de los estudiantes de pregrado en eláreade la salud / Portfolio: perception of undergraduate students in the healthcare field

Introdução:A formação em saúde norteia a prática profissional, incidindo diretamente na atenção e assistência à saúde ofertada à população. Nesse sentido, o uso de métodos ativos de aprendizagem e avaliação, como por exemplo, o portfólio, podem contribuir para a construção de conhecimentos crítico-reflexivos. Objetivo:Evidenciara percepção de estudantes dos cursos da área da saúde, que cursam a disciplina de Saúde e Cidadania na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte sobre o uso do portfólio enquanto instrumento de avaliação do ensino aprendizagem. Metodologia:Os dados foram obtidos por meio da formação de grupo focaleanalisados pela análise do conteúdo. Definiram-se, então, as categorias temáticas:percepção sobre o portfólio; a elaboração do portfólio e a sua contribuição para a formação; dificuldades para formulação doportfólio;o portfólio como instrumento de avaliação. Resultados:Os estudantes compreendem o portfólio como instrumento de diálogo entre docentes e discentes, através dos relatos das vivências em grupo nos equipamentos sociais e reflexões individuais na construção de conceitos e aprofundamento teórico. Ainda referem inseguranças e dúvidas acerca da estruturação e confecção do instrumento, no entanto, percebem o portfólio como potente e inovador no auxílio aconstrução do conhecimento uma vez que permite oacompanhamento do processo de ensino-aprendizagem, possibilitando maior interação entre educador-educando, com produção de uma aprendizagem significativa.Conclusões:o portfólio estimula a reflexão e a crítica acerca das vivências nos cenários de práticas onde se desenvolve o componente curricular Saúde e Cidadaniacorroborando, sobremaneira, para a construção do conhecimento dos estudantes (AU).

Introduction:A degreein healthcare guides the professional practice, directly affecting the healthcare attention and assistance offered to the population. In this sense, the use of active learning and assessment methods, such as portfolios, can contribute to the construction of critical-reflective knowledge. Objective:To highlight the perception of students from health courses, who study the Health and Citizenship discipline at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, regarding the use of the portfolio as an instrument for evaluating teaching and learning.Methodology:Data were obtained through the formation of a focus group and analyzed using content analysis. Thematic categories were then defined: perception of the portfolio; the preparation of the portfolio and its contribution to training; difficulties in formulating the portfolio; the portfolio as an assessment tool. Results:Students understand the portfolio as an instrument of dialogue between teachers and students, through reports of group experiences in social facilities and individual reflections in the construction of concepts and theoretical deepening. They still report insecurities and doubts about the structuring and creation of the instrument, however, they perceive the portfolio as powerful and innovativein helping to build knowledge as it allows the monitoring of the teaching-learning process, enabling greater interaction between educator and student, with the production of significant learning. Conclusions:The portfolio encourages reflection and criticism about the experiences in the practical scenarios where the curricular component -SACI is developed, greatly supporting the construction of students' knowledge (AU).

Introducción:La formación en salud orienta la práctica profesional, incidiendo directamente en la atención y asistencia sanitaria que se ofrece a la población. En este sentido, el uso de métodos activos de aprendizaje y evaluación, como los portafolios, puedecontribuir a la construcción de conocimiento crítico-reflexivo. Objetivo:Resaltar la percepción de estudiantes de carreras de salud, que cursan la disciplina Salud y Ciudadanía de la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Norte, sobre el uso del portafolios como instrumento de evaluación de la enseñanza y del aprendizaje. Metodología:Los datos se obtuvieron mediante la formación de un grupo focal y se analizaron mediante análisis de contenido. Luego se definieron categorías temáticas: percepción del portafolio; la elaboración del portafolio y su contribución a la formación; dificultades para formular el portafolio; el portafolio como herramienta de evaluación.Resultados:Los estudiantes entienden el portafolio como un instrumento de diálogo entre docentes y estudiantes, a través de relatos de experiencias grupales en establecimientos sociales y reflexiones individuales en la construcción de conceptos y profundización teórica. Aún reportan inseguridades y dudas sobre la estructuración y creación del instrumento, sin embargo, perciben el portafolio como poderoso e innovador para ayudar a la construcción de conocimiento ya que permite el seguimiento del proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje, posibilitando una mayor interacción entre educador y estudiante, con la producción de aprendizajes significativos.Conclusiones: El portafolio incentiva la reflexión y crítica sobre las experiencias en los escenarios prácticos donde se desarrolla el componente curricular -SACI, apoyando en gran medida la construcción del conocimiento de los estudiantes (AU).

The effect of Orem self-care model on the improvement of symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetes: A scoping review / Efecto del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en el mejoramiento de los síntomas y en la calidad de vida de pacientes con diabetes: Una revisión de alcance / Efeito do modelo de autocuidado de Orem na melhora dos sintomas e na qualidade de vida de pacientes com diabetes: uma revisão de escopo

Objective: to evaluate the association of Orem self-care model improvement of symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetes. Methods. A scoping review was carried on bibliographic databases: PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID and Magiran. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies examining the impact of the Orem self-care model on diabetic patients. Studies considered for inclusion needed to have full-text availability and be written in either English or Persian, with key words including "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life", and "Diabetes Mellitus". CONSORT checklist and STROBE statement were selected for quality assessment. Results. A total of 9 studies were included, all using quantitative methodology and focusing on adults or older adults. The majority of articles focused on quality of life and diabetic symptoms. 8 studies showed positive outcomes after implementation of the model. The findings indicate that this model led to an enhanced level of self-efficacy, improved quality of life, and better self-care practices among diabetic patients.Conclusion.Orem self-care model can reduce the diabetic symptoms and improve the quality of life, self-efficacy and self-care in these patients.

Objetivo. Evaluar la asociación del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en el mejoramiento de los síntomas y en la calidad de vida en pacientes con diabetes. Método. Se realizó una revisión de alcance empleando las bases bibliográficas PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID y Magiran. Los criterios de inclusión abarcaron estudios que examinaran el impacto del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en pacientes diabéticos. Los estudios considerados para su inclusión debían tener disponibilidad de texto completo y estar escritos en inglés o persa, con palabras clave como: "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life" y "Diabetes Mellitus". Se utilizaron para la evaluación de la calidad de los estudios la lista de comprobación CONSORT y la declaración STROBE. Resultados. Se incluyeron un total de 9 estudios, todos ellos con metodología cuantitativa y centrados en adultos y en ancianos. La mayoría de los artículos se estudiaron la calidad de vida y los síntomas diabéticos. 8 estudios mostraron resultados positivos tras la aplicación del modelo de Orem. Los hallazgos indican que este modelo condujo a un mayor nivel de autoeficacia, mejor calidad de vida y mejores prácticas de autocuidado entre los pacientes diabéticos. Conclusión.El modelo de autocuidado de Orem puede ayudar a disminuir los síntomas diabéticos y mejorar la calidad de vida, la autoeficacia y el autocuidado en estos pacientes.

Objetivo. Avaliar a associação do modelo de autocuidado de Orem na melhora dos sintomas e na qualidade de vida de pacientes com diabetes. Métodos. Foi realizada uma revisão de escopo usando os bancos de dados PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID e Magiran. Os critérios de inclusão incluíram estudos que examinaram o impacto do modelo de autocuidado de Orem em pacientes diabéticos. Os estudos considerados para inclusão tinham que estar disponíveis em texto completo e escritos em inglês ou persa, com palavras-chave como: "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life" e "Diabetes Mellitus". A lista de verificação CONSORT e a declaração STROBE foram usadas para avaliar a qualidade dos estudos. Resultados. Foram incluídos 9 estudos, todos com metodologia quantitativa e com foco em adultos e idosos. A maioria dos artigos estudou a qualidade de vida e os sintomas diabéticos. Oito estudos mostraram resultados positivos após a aplicação do modelo de Orem. Os achados indicam que esse modelo levou a um nível mais alto de autoeficácia, melhor qualidade de vida e melhores práticas de autocuidado entre os pacientes diabéticos. Conclusão. O modelo de autocuidado de Orem pode ajudar a diminuir os sintomas da diabetes e melhorar a qualidade de vida, a autoeficácia e o autocuidado desses pacientes.

Prediction and simulation of PEEP setting effects with machine learning models / Predicción y simulación de los efectos de la configuración de la PEEP con modelos de aprendizaje automático

Objective To establish a new machine learning-based method to adjust positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) using only already routinely measured data. Design Retrospective observational study. Setting Intensive care unit (ICU). Patients or participants 51811 mechanically ventilated patients in multiple ICUs in the USA (data from MIMIC-III and eICU databases). Interventions No interventions. Main variables of interest Success parameters of ventilation (arterial partial pressures of oxygen and carbon dioxide and respiratory system compliance). Results The multi-tasking neural network model performed significantly best for all target tasks in the primary test set. The model predicts arterial partial pressures of oxygen and carbon dioxide and respiratory system compliance about 45 min into the future with mean absolute percentage errors of about 21.7%, 10.0% and 15.8%, respectively. The proposed use of the model was demonstrated in case scenarios, where we simulated possible effects of PEEP adjustments for individual cases. Conclusions Our study implies that machine learning approach to PEEP titration is a promising new method which comes with no extra cost once the infrastructure is in place. Availability of databases with most recent ICU patient data is crucial for the refinement of prediction performance. (AU)

Objetivo Establecer un nuevo método basado en el aprendizaje automático para ajustar la presión positiva al final de la espiración (PEEP según sus siglas en inglés) utilizando únicamente datos ya obtenidos de forma rutinaria. Diseño Estudio retrospectivo de observación. Ámbito Unidad de cuidados intesivos (UCI) Pacientes o participantes 51811 pacientes ventilados mecánicamente en múltiples UCIs de EE.UU. (tomados de las bases de datos MIMIC-III y eICU). Intervenciones Sin intervenciones. Variables de interés principales Parametros de éxito de la ventilación (presiones parciales arteriales de oxígeno y dióxido de carbono y distensibilidad del sistema respiratorio). Resultados El modelo de red neuronal multitarea obtuvo los mejores resultados en todos los objetivos del conjunto de pruebas primario. El modelo predice las presiones parciales arteriales de oxígeno y dióxido de carbono así como la distensibilidad del sistema respiratorio con aproximadamente 45 minutos de anticipación, mostrando errores porcentuales absolutos medios de aproximadamente 21.7%, 10.0% y 15.8%, respectivamente. El uso propuesto del modelo se demostró en situaciones hipotéticas en las que se simularon los posibles efectos de los ajustes de PEEP para casos individuales. Conclusiones Nuestro estudio implica que el enfoque de aprendizaje automático para el ajuste de la PEEP es un método nuevo y prometedor que no supone ningún coste adicional una vez que se dispone de la infraestructura necesaria. La disponibilidad de bases de datos con información de pacientes de UCI más recientes es crucial para perfeccionar el rendimiento de la predicción. (AU)

Implementación de intervenciones que aborden las experiencias adversas en la infancia en atención primaria: una revisión exploratoria

Introducción: La vivencia de experiencias adversas en la infancia (EAI) se asocia a mayor riesgo de presentar conductas de riesgo y enfermedades crónicas a largo plazo. A nivel mundial, se han comenzado a pesquisar y abordar en las atenciones de salud. Sin embargo, en Chile aún no existe una sugerencia a nivel nacional para incorporarlo. El fin de este artículo es proveer de información y recomendaciones a la práctica clínica. Métodos: Se realizó una revisión exploratoria en PubMed, LILACS y PsycInfo usando el marco metodológico del Joanna Briggs Institute para identificar la literatura disponible sobre implementación de intervenciones en detección y abordaje de EAI dentro de un sistema de salud, con foco en atención infantil ambulatoria. Resultados: Se encontraron 34 estudios atingentes al tema, los que muestran que implementar mecanismos de detección y abordaje de EAI es factible y aceptable, tanto para el personal de salud como para los usuarios, pero debe ser realizado dentro de un modelo de cuidado que incorpore a las familias y comunidad, además de trabajar con los equipos en capacitación, gestión del cambio, implementación y evaluación. Conclusiones: La Atención Primaria de Salud (APS) resulta ser un lugar privilegiado para su implementación dada la cercanía y relación de confianza que se establece con las familias. Este estudio muestra que es posible implementar un modelo de detección y abordaje de EAI en APS, lo que resulta crucial dentro de su rol preventivo-promocional si se quiere generar un impacto en la salud de niños, niñas y adolescentes ahora y en el futuro.

Introduction: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with an increased risk of developing risky health behaviors and chronic diseases in the long term. Screening for ACEs is beginning to be implemented worldwide in healthcare settings due to their known impact on present and future health. However, in Chile, there are no recommendations to incorporate ACEs screening into usual care. Methods: A scoping review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodological framework to identify available literature on the implementation of interventions aimed at the detection and management of ACEs within a health system, specifically pediatric primary care. The search included PubMed, LILACS, and PsycInfo databases. Results: A total of 34 studies were included. They show that screening for ACEs is feasible and acceptable for both health care providers and users. However, it must be implemented as a part of a model of care that considers families and communities, besides working with health teams in training, change management, implementation, and evaluation. Conclusions: Primary Health Care (PHC) is a privileged setting for screening implementation because of the longitudinal and trust relationships established with families. This study concludes that it is possible to implement a model for detecting and managing ACEs in PHC, which will be crucial for its promotional and preventive role if there is a desire to generate an impact on infant and adolescent health now and in the future.

Cooperación entre médicos del departamento de emergencias y dermatólogos por telemedicina / Cooperation between emergency department physicians and dermatologists via telemedicine

Las intercurrencias dermatológicas agudas son un motivo de consulta frecuente a las centrales de emergencias, y generalmente los médicos de atención primaria se ocupan del primer nivel de atención. Puede ser necesaria una interconsulta con expertos, aunque no siempre estén disponibles. Ante la necesidad de facilitar dicha interacción a distancia, en Julio 2022 se implementó una herramienta de teledermatología en un hospital de alta complejidad en Buenos Aires, Argentina. Este servicio se limitó a días hábiles con horario restringido, permitiendo la comunicación entre médicos del departamento de emergencias y dermatólogos, a través de WhatsApp institucional. El dermatólogo podía verificar datos de salud relacionados al paciente (ej: comorbilidades y medicación crónica) mediante revisión de la historia clínica electrónica, para decidir sobre un plan de acción. Se evaluó la perspectiva de los usuarios a través de un formulario electrónico tras 3 meses de implementación. Los resultados evidenciaron que la mayoría (85%) de los profesionales conocía la herramienta, y el 57% la había usado al menos una vez. Se obtuvo una mediana de 9 puntos (de una escala de Likert del 1 al 10) sobre la recomendación hacia otro profesional. El teletriage dermatológico resultó beneficioso y fue aceptado, tanto por médicos de guardia como por especialistas. Ante las demoras en la atención ambulatoria, ha resultado una alternativa útil para evitar derivaciones innecesarias y/o acelerar aquellas que verdaderamente lo ameritan. Sin embargo, representa una forma de comunicación informal desde el punto de vista de almacenamiento de datos. Será necesario reflexionar sobre estos tópicos pendientes de esta experiencia asistencial como legalidad, seguridad y confidencialidad (AU)

Acute skin conditions are a frequent reason for consultation in emergency departments, and primary care physicians generally handle them. They might require referrals to experts, who are not always readily available. Recognizing the need to facilitate such interactions remotely, a teledermatology triage tool was implemented in July 2022 at a high-complexity hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The service was limited to business days with restricted hours, enabling communication between emergency department physicians and dermatologists through institutional WhatsApp. Dermatologists could access patient-related health data (e.g., comorbidities and chronic medication) through the electronic medical record to determine an appropriate course of action. The perspective of users was evaluated through an electronic questionnaire after three months of application. Results showed that most professionals were aware of the tool (85%), and 57% used it at least once. The median rating for recommending the tool to other professionals was 9 points (on a Likert scale from 1 to 10). Dermatological teletriage proved beneficial and was well-received by emergency physicians and specialists. In the face of delays in outpatient care, it has been a useful alternative to avoid unnecessary referrals and expedite those that are warranted. However, it represents an informal method of communication with regard to data storage. It will be necessary to rethink on improvements in pending topics such as legal limitations, security, and confidentiality of this healthcare experience (AU)

La depresión como factor de riesgo de la demencia: fisiopatología y modelos preclínicos de estudio / Depression as a risk factor for dementia: Pathophysiology and preclinical study models

El aumento de la esperanza de vida ha llevado a un incremento en la incidencia de enfermedades crónicas como la demencia. Tratar los factores de riesgo de la demencia, como la depresión, podría reducir su incidencia. Sin embargo, el tratamiento con antidepresivos no ha sido eficaz en el manejo de este síntoma, lo que aumenta el riesgo de demencia en el futuro. Es fundamental investigar las causas y el tratamiento de la depresión, y el uso de modelos animales es importante en este sentido. Este estudio busca analizar la relación entre la depresión y el riesgo de desarrollar demencia, así como los modelos preclínicos más relevantes para estudiar la depresión en roedores. (AU)

The increase in life expectancy has led to a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases, such as dementia. Treating the risk factors of dementia, such as depression, could help reduce its occurrence. However, antidepressant treatment has not proven effective in managing this symptom, thereby increasing the risk of dementia in the future. It is essential to investigate the causes and treatment of depression, and in this regard, the use of animal models is of great significance. This study aims to analyze the evidence supporting the relationship between depression and the risk of developing dementia, while also providing an update on the most relevant preclinical models for studying depression in rodents. (AU)

[Translated article] Mechanical resistance of polylactic acid bone matrices developed by 3D printing for the reconstruction of bone defects.

INTRODUCTION: Bone defects are one of the main limitations in orthopaedic surgery and traumatology. For this reason, multiple bone replacement systems have been developed, either by prosthetic implant or by substitution with osteoforming substances, whose limitations are their survival and lack of structurality, respectively. The objective of this work is the generation of a new material for the creation of biologically active structures that have sufficient tensile strength to maintain the structure during remodelling. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A new filament based on the fusion of natural polylactide acid (PLA) powder was designed for the generation of pieces by means of fused deposition modelling (FDM) on which to carry out tensile mechanical tests of osteosynthesis material. A total of 13 groups with different cortical thickness, filling and layer height were carried out, with 10 tensile tests in each group, defining the tensile breaking limit for each group. The regression lines for each group and their mechanical resistance to traction on the filament used were determined. RESULTS: The filament ratio per contact surface unit with the osteosynthesis used was the main determinant of the mechanical resistance to traction, either at the expense of the increase in cortical thickness or by the increase in the percentage of cancellous bone filling. Layer height had a minor effect on tensile strength. The regression value was high for cortical thickness and cancellous filling, being elements with a predictable biomechanical behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: The new methodology allows the creation of personalised neutral and implantable PLA bone matrices for the reconstruction of large bone defects by means of 3D printing by FDM with a mechanical resistance to traction greater than that of current biological support structures.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil / Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Avaliação do perfil de citocinas séricas e óxido nítrico na hanseníase experimental murina / Evaluation of the serum cytokines profile and nitric oxide in experimental murine leprosy

Introdução: a hanseníase é uma do-ença infecciosa crônica causada pelo Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), um para-sita intracelular obrigatório. Assim, a resis-tência do hospedeiro a esse patógeno depen-de da imunidade celular. O uso de modelos experimentais tem permitido o estudo da hanseníase do ponto de vista imunológico, microbiológico e terapêutico, entretanto, as diferenças na progressão da infecção entre os modelos mais empregados (camundongos imunocompetentes, BALB/c, e camundongos congenitamente atímicos, nude) são pouco estudadas. Objetivo: comparar a evolução da infecção pelo M. leprae em camundongos BALB/c e nude quanto à multi-plicação bacilar e avaliação do perfil inflamatório sistêmico pela quantificação sérica de citocinas e óxido nítrico (NO). Métodos: os camundongos foram inoculados com M. leprae nos coxins plantares e avaliados aos 3, 5 e 8 meses após a infecção. Resultados: camundongos nude apresentaram multiplicação bacilar progressiva nos coxins plantares. Em camundongos BALB/c, o número de bacilos foi maior aos 5 meses. Em relação à quantificação de citocinas, nos camundongos BALB/c houve aumento de IL-2 e IL-17A e diminuição de IL-6 e NO aos 8 meses de inoculação. Nos camundongos nude, verificou-se o aumento do TNF aos 8 meses de inoculação e manutenção dos níveis de NO. Conclusão: os resultados encontrados sugerem que em camundongos BALB/c ocorre a ativação de uma resposta imune capaz de controlar a multiplicação do M. leprae, em contrapartida em camundongos nude a infecção é progressiva a despeito de altos níveis de TNF. (AU)

Introduction: leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), an obligate intracellular parasite. Thus, host resistance to this pathogen depends on cellular immunity. The use of experimental models has made it possible to study leprosy from an immunological, microbiological, and therapeutic point of view. However, the differences in the progression of the infection between the most used models (immunocompetent mice, BALB/c, and congenitally athymic mice, nude) have been little studied. Objective: to compare the evolution of M. leprae infection in BALB/c and nude mice in terms of bacillary multiplication and evaluation of the systemic inflammatory profile by quantifying serum cytokines and nitric oxide (NO). Methods: the mice were inoculated with M. leprae in the footpads and evaluated at 3, 5, and 8 months after infection. Results: nude mice showed progressive bacillary multiplication in the footpads. In BALB/c mice, the number of bacilli was higher at 5 months. In terms of cytokine quantification, BALB/c mice showed an increase in IL-2 and IL-17A and a decrease in IL-6 and NO at 8 months of inoculation. In the nude mice, there was an increase in TNF at 8 months of inoculation and maintenance of NO levels. Conclusion: the results suggest that BALB/c mice activate an immune response capable of controlling the multiplication of M. leprae, whereas in nude mice the infection is progressive despite high levels of TNF. (AU)

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan / Previsão de produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelos inteligentes de dados no Paquistão

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), Willmotts index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.