Machine learning in neurological disorders: A multivariate LSTM and AdaBoost approach to Alzheimer's disease time series analysis.

Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive brain disorder that impairs cognitive functions, behavior, and memory. Early detection is crucial as it can slow down the progression of AD. However, early diagnosis and monitoring of AD's advancement pose significant challenges due to the necessity for complex cognitive assessments and medical tests. Methods: This study introduces a data acquisition technique and a preprocessing pipeline, combined with multivariate long short-term memory (M-LSTM) and AdaBoost models. These models utilize biomarkers from cognitive assessments and neuroimaging scans to detect the progression of AD in patients, using The AD Prediction of Longitudinal Evolution challenge cohort from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database. Results: The methodology proposed in this study significantly improved performance metrics. The testing accuracy reached 80% with the AdaBoost model, while the M-LSTM model achieved an accuracy of 82%. This represents a 20% increase in accuracy compared to a recent similar study. Discussion: The findings indicate that the multivariate model, specifically the M-LSTM, is more effective in identifying the progression of AD compared to the AdaBoost model and methodologies used in recent research.

Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Multivariate LSTM Model.

There are many frequent landslide areas in China, which badly affect local people. Since the 1980s, there have been more than 200 landslides in China with a death toll of 30 or more people at a time, economic losses of more than CNY 10 million or significant social impact. Therefore, the study of landslide displacement prediction is very important. The traditional ARIMA and LSTM models are commonly used for forecasting time series data. In our study, a multivariable LSTM landslide displacement prediction model is proposed based on the traditional LSTM model, which integrates rainfall and reservoir water level data. Taking the Baijiabao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the data of displacement, rainfall and reservoir water level of monitoring point ZG323 from November 2006 to December 2012 were selected for this study. Our results show that the displacement prediction results of the multivariable LSTM model are more accurate than those of the ARIMA and the univariate LSTM models, and the mean square, root mean square and mean absolute errors are the smallest, which are 0.64223, 0.8014 and 0.50453 mm, respectively. Therefore, the multivariable LSTM model method has higher accuracy and better application prospects in the displacement prediction of the Baijiabao landslide, which can provide a certain reference for the displacement prediction of the same type of landslide.

Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting the Incidence of HFMD Combined and Uncombined with Exogenous Meteorological Variables in Ningbo, China.

BACKGROUND: This study intends to identify the best model for predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Ningbo by comparing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables. METHODS: The data of daily HFMD incidence in Ningbo from January 2014 to November 2017 were set as the training set, and the data of December 2017 were set as the test set. ARIMA and LSTM models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables were adopted to fit the daily incidence of HFMD by using the data of the training set. The forecasting performances of the four fitted models were verified by using the data of the test set. Root mean square error (RMSE) was selected as the main measure to evaluate the performance of the models. RESULTS: The RMSE for multivariate LSTM, univariate LSTM, ARIMA and ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Input Variables) was 10.78, 11.20, 12.43 and 14.73, respectively. The LSTM model with exogenous meteorological variables has the best performance among the four models and meteorological variables can increase the prediction accuracy of LSTM model. For the ARIMA model, exogenous meteorological variables did not increase the prediction accuracy but became the interference factor of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate LSTM is the best among the four models to fit the daily incidence of HFMD in Ningbo. It can provide a scientific method to build the HFMD early warning system and the methodology can also be applied to other communicable diseases.

Comparison of ARIMAX and multivariate LSTM model in predicting daily death toll in Yancheng City / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To compare the effects of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model-X (ARIMAX) and multivariate Long Short Term Memory Network (multivariate LSTM) in the prediction of daily total death toll in Yancheng City. Methods Based on total death toll data, meteorological data and air quality data from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th,2017 in Yancheng City, Jiangsu province, ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were established to predict the daily total death toll from July 1st,2017 to July 14th,2017. RMSE, MAE and MAPE were used as evaluation indexes to compare the prediction effects of these two models. Results RMSE, MAE and MAPE of ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were 20.742、15.094、9.921 and 47.182、35.863、19.633, respectively. Conclusion ARIMAX model is better than multivariate LSTM model to predict the daily death toll in Yancheng city.

A Decision Support System for Water Optimization in Anti-Frost Techniques by Sprinklers.

Precision agriculture is a growing sector that improves traditional agricultural processes through the use of new technologies. In southeast Spain, farmers are continuously fighting against harsh conditions caused by the effects of climate change. Among these problems, the great variability of temperatures (up to 20 °C in the same day) stands out. This causes the stone fruit trees to flower prematurely and the low winter temperatures freeze the flower causing the loss of the crop. Farmers use anti-freeze techniques to prevent crop loss and the most widely used techniques are those that use water irrigation as they are cheaper than other techniques. However, these techniques waste too much water and it is a scarce resource, especially in this area. In this article, we propose a novel intelligent Internet of Things (IoT) monitoring system to optimize the use of water in these anti-frost techniques while minimizing crop loss. The intelligent component of the IoT system is designed using an approach based on a multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, designed to predict low temperatures. We compare the proposed approach of multivariate model with the univariate counterpart version to figure out which model obtains better accuracy to predict low temperatures. An accurate prediction of low temperatures would translate into significant water savings, as anti-frost techniques would not be activated without being necessary. Our experimental results show that the proposed multivariate LSTM approach improves the univariate counterpart version, obtaining an average quadratic error no greater than 0.65 °C and a coefficient of determination R2 greater than 0.97. The proposed system has been deployed and is currently operating in a real environment obtained satisfactory performance.