Disturbance and vegetational structure in an urban forest of Indian Siwaliks: an ecological assessment.

Urban forests face multiple human-mediated pressures leading to compromised ecosystem structure and functioning. Therefore, understanding ecosystem structure in response to ongoing pressures is crucial for sustaining ecological integrity and human well-being. We aim to assess the disturbance and its effects on the vegetation structure of urban forests in Chandigarh using a combination of remote sensing techniques and vegetation surveys. The disturbance was evaluated as a change in NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) from 2001 to 2021 by applying the BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend) algorithm to the MODIS satellite imagery data. A vegetation survey was conducted to compare the species composition, taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity as measures of forest vegetational structure. While signals of disturbance were evident, the changes in vegetation structure were not well established from our study. Further, this analysis indicated no significant differences in vegetation composition due to disturbance (F1,12 = 0.91, p = 0.575). However, the phylogenetic diversity was substantially lower for disturbed plots than undisturbed plots, though the taxonomic diversity was similar among the disturbed and undisturbed plots. Our results confirmed that disturbance effects are more prominent on the phylogenetic than taxonomic diversity. These findings can be considered early signals of disturbance and its impact on the vegetation structure of urban forests and contribute to the knowledge base on urban ecosystems. Our study has implications for facilitating evidence-based decision-making and the development of sustainable management strategies for urban forest ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal patterns, sustainability, and primary drivers of NDVI-derived vegetation dynamics (2003-2022) in Nepal.

Understanding the vegetation dynamics and their drivers in Nepal has significant scientific reference value for implementing sustainable ecological policies. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variations in vegetation cover in Nepal from 2003 to 2022 using MODIS NDVI data and explores the effects of climatic factors and anthropogenic activities on vegetation. Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the significant trend in NDVI and was integrated with the Hurst exponent to predict future trends. The driving factors of NDVI dynamics were analyzed using Pearson's correlation, partial derivative, and residual analysis methods. The results indicate that over the last 20 years, Nepal has experienced an increasing trend in NDVI at 0.0013 year-1, with 80% of the surface area (vegetation cover) showing an increasing vegetation trend (~ 28% with a significant increase in vegetation). Temperature influenced vegetation dynamics in the higher elevation areas, while precipitation and human interventions influenced the lower elevation areas. The Hurst exponent analysis predicts an improvement in the vegetation cover (greening) for a larger area compared to vegetation degradation (browning). A significantly increased area of NDVI residuals indicates a positive anthropogenic influence on vegetation cover. Anthropogenic activities have a higher relative contribution to NDVI variation followed by temperature and then precipitation. The results of residual trend and Hurst analysis in different regions of Nepal help identify degraded areas, both in the present and future. This information can assist relevant authorities in implementing appropriate policies for a sustainable ecological environment.

Association of residential greenness with incident pneumonia: A prospective cohort study.

Residential greenness is considered beneficial to human health, and its association with respiratory function has been found in previous studies. However, its link with pneumonia remains unclear. To explore the association of residential greenness with incident pneumonia, we conducted a prospective cohort study based on participants of the UK Biobank, followed from 2006 to 2010 to the end of 2019. Residential greenness was measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within 500 m and 1000 m buffer. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to assess the association, and restricted cubic spline models were also constructed to estimate their exposure-response relationship. Results demonstrate that residential greenness was negatively related to the risk of incident pneumonia. An interquartile (IQR) increase in NDVI 500-m buffer was associated with 4 % [HR (95 % CI) =0.96 (0.94, 0.97), P < 0.001] lower risk of incident pneumonia. Compared to the lowest greenness quartile (Q1), the highest quartile (Q4) had a lower risk of incident pneumonia, with the HR (95 % CI) estimated to be 0.91 (0.87, 0.95) (P values <0.001). Analyses based on NDVI 1000-m buffer obtained similar results. Furthermore, a significant effect of modifications by age and income on the linkage between residential greenness and incident pneumonia was found. These findings propose a potential effective prevention of incident pneumonia and provide the scientific basis for promoting the construction of residential greenness.

Pollen metabarcoding reveals the origin and multigenerational migratory pathway of an intercontinental-scale butterfly outbreak.

Migratory insects may move in large numbers, even surpassing migratory vertebrates in biomass. Long-distance migratory insects complete annual cycles through multiple generations, with each generation's reproductive success linked to the resources available at different breeding grounds. Climatic anomalies in these grounds are presumed to trigger rapid population outbreaks. Here, we infer the origin and track the multigenerational path of a remarkable outbreak of painted lady (Vanessa cardui) butterflies that took place at an intercontinental scale in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa from March 2019 to November 2019. Using metabarcoding, we identified pollen transported by 264 butterflies captured in 10 countries over 7 months and modeled the distribution of the 398 plants detected. The analysis showed that swarms collected in Eastern Europe in early spring originated in Arabia and the Middle East, coinciding with a positive anomaly in vegetation growth in the region from November 2018 to April 2019. From there, the swarms advanced to Northern Europe during late spring, followed by an early reversal toward southwestern Europe in summer. The pollen-based evidence matched spatiotemporal abundance peaks revealed by citizen science, which also suggested an echo effect of the outbreak in West Africa during September-November. Our results show that population outbreaks in a part of species' migratory ranges may disseminate demographic effects across multiple generations in a wide geographic area. This study represents an unprecedented effort to track a continuous multigenerational insect migration on an intercontinental scale.

Exposure to Residential Greenness, Perceived Stress, and Depressive Symptoms in a North American Preconception Cohort.

BACKGROUND: /Aims: Studies suggest that greater exposure to natural vegetation (i.e., greenness) is associated with better mental health. However, there is limited research on greenness and mental health in the preconception period, a critical window of exposure in the life course. We investigated the associations of residential greenness with perceived stress and depressive symptoms using cross-sectional data from a cohort of pregnancy planners. METHODS: From 2013 to 2019, we enrolled female-identified participants aged 21-45 years who were trying to conceive without the use of fertility treatment into a North American preconception cohort study (Pregnancy Study Online [PRESTO]). On the baseline questionnaire, participants completed the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and the Major Depression Inventory (MDI). Using geocoded addresses, we estimated residential greenness exposure via satellite imagery (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI]) in a 100m buffer. We estimated mean differences and 95% confidence intervals for the association of greenness with perceived stress and depression scores using linear regression models, adjusting for individual and neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics. We also evaluated the extent to which associations were modified by urbanicity and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: Among 9,718 participants, mean age was 29.9 years, 81.5% identified as non-Hispanic White, 25% had household incomes <$50,000, and mean neighborhood income was $61,932. In adjusted models, higher greenness was associated with lower stress and depression scores (mean difference per interquartile range in greenness: -0.20, 95% CI: -0.39, -0.01; and -0.19, 95% CI: -0.48, 0.10, respectively). The association was stronger among residents of lower SES neighborhoods in urban areas (PSS: -0.57, 95% CI: -1.00, -0.15; MDI: -0.72, 95% CI: -1.40, -0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Higher greenness exposure was associated with lower stress and depressive symptoms among pregnancy planners, particularly in lower-SES neighborhoods.

Effect of drought stress during seed development on charcoal rot and yield of soybean.

The primary controls for charcoal rot in soybean, caused by the fungal pathogen Macrophomina phaseolina, are to avoid drought stress and to plant a moderately resistant cultivar. The effects of irrigation and cultivar were determined in 2011 and 2013 at the Lon Mann Cotton Research Station, Marianna, AR. Four soybean cultivars (Hutcheson, Osage, Ozark, and R01581F), were planted in plots with or without added M. phaseolina inoculum and subjected to three furrow irrigation regimes: full season irrigation (Full), irrigation terminated at R5 (CutR5), and non-irrigated (NonIrr). Normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) was measured at R3 and R6. At harvest, plants and yields were collected. Roots and stems were split and the extent of visible colonization by M. phaseolina microsclerotia was assessed in the roots with a 1-5 scale (RSS) and the percent plant height stem discoloration (PHSD) measured. Precipitation in September and October was 54 and 65% below the 30-year average in 2011 and 2013, respectively. The CutR5 irrigation treatment resulted in one less irrigation than Full each year, but CutR5 NDVI's at R6 and yields were significantly lower than those with Full and not significantly different than those of NonIrr. The CutR5 RSS ratings were greater than either Full or NonIrr. Plant colonization by M. phaseolina was negatively correlated to yield in 2011 but not in 2013. No premature plant death caused by charcoal rot was observed in either year. These results indicated that late season drought stress may be more important to charcoal rot development than drought stress throughout the season, but other factors are needed to trigger early plant death and subsequent yield losses observed in grower fields.

Vegetation response to large-scale mountain excavation and city construction projects on the Loess Plateau of China.

Since 2012, the "Mountain Excavation and City Construction" (MECC) project has been implemented extensively on the Loess Plateau of China, transforming gullies into flat land for urban sprawl by leveling loess hilltops to fill in valleys. However, this unprecedented human activity has caused widespread controversy over its unknown potential ecological impacts. Quantitative assessment of the impacts of the MECC project on the vegetation is key to ecological management and restoration. Taking the largest MECC project area on the Loess Plateau, Yan'an New District (YND), as the study area, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dynamics before and after the implementation of the MECC project using a multitemporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from 2009 to 2023 and explored the response of vegetation dynamics to the large-scale MECC project. The results showed that the vegetation dynamics in the YND exhibited significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the MECC project, with the vegetation in the project-affected areas showing rapid damage followed by slow recovery. Vegetation damage occurred only in the project-affected area, and 84 % of these areas began recovery within 10 years, indicating the limited impact of the large-scale MECC project on the regional vegetation. The strong correlation between vegetation dynamics and the MECC project suggested that the destruction and recovery of vegetation in the project-affected areas was mainly under anthropogenic control, which highlights the importance of targeted ecological policies. Specifically, the MECC project induced local anthropogenic damage to the plant population structure during the land creation period, but regeneration and rational allocation of the vegetation were achieved through urbanization, gradually forming a new balanced ecological environment. These findings will contribute to a full understanding of the response of vegetation to such large-scale engineering activities and help local governments adopt projects or policies that facilitate vegetation recovery.

Leveraging browse and grazing forage estimates to optimize index-based livestock insurance.

African pastoralists suffer recurrent droughts that cause high livestock mortality and vulnerability to climate change. The index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) program offers protection against drought impacts. However, the current IBLI design relying on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) may pose limitation because it does not consider the mixed composition of rangelands (including herbaceous and woody plants) and the diverse feeding habits of grazers and browsers. To enhance IBLI, we assessed the efficacy of utilizing distinct browse and grazing forage estimates from woody LAI (LAIW) and herbaceous LAI (LAIH), respectively, derived from aggregate leaf area index (LAIA), as an alternative to NDVI for refined IBLI design. Using historical livestock mortality data from northern Kenya as reference ground dataset, our analysis compared two competing models for (1) aggregate forage estimates including sub-models for NDVI, LAI (LAIA); and (2) partitioned biomass model (LAIP) comprising LAIH and LAIW. By integrating forage estimates with ancillary environmental variables, we found that LAIP, with separate forage estimates, outperformed the aggregate models. For total livestock mortality, LAIP yielded the lowest RMSE (5.9 TLUs) and higher R2 (0.83), surpassing NDVI and LAIA models RMSE (9.3 TLUs) and R2 (0.6). A similar pattern was observed for species-specific livestock mortality. The influence of environmental variables across the models varied, depending on level of mortality aggregation or separation. Overall, forage availability was consistently the most influential variable, with species-specific models showing the different forage preferences in various animal types. These results suggest that deriving distinct browse and grazing forage estimates from LAIP has the potential to reduce basis risk by enhancing IBLI index accuracy.

Greening of Svalbard.

Svalbard, located between 76°30'N and 80°50'N, is among the regions in the world with the most rapid temperature increase. We processed a cloud-free time-series of MODIS-NDVI for Svalbard. The dataset is interpolated to daily data during the 2000-2022 period with 232 m pixel resolution. The onset of growth, with a clear phenological definition, has been mapped each year. Then the integrated NDVI from the onset (O) of growth each year to the time of average (2000-2022) peak (P) of growth (OP NDVI) have been calculated. OP NDVI has previously shown high correlation with field-based tundra productivity. Daily mean temperature data from 11 meteorological stations are compared with the NDVI data. The OP NDVI values show very high and significant correlation with growing degree days computed from onset to time of peak of growth for all the meteorological stations used. On average for the entire Svalbard, the year 2016 first had the highest greening (OP NDVI values) recorded since the year 2000, then the greening in 2018 surpassed 2016, then 2020 surpassed 2018, and finally 2022 was the year with the overall highest greening by far for the whole 2000-2022 period. This shows a rapid recent greening of Svalbard very strongly linked to temperature increase, although there are regional differences: the eastern parts of Svalbard show the largest variability between years, most likely due to variability in the timing of sea-ice break-up in adjacent areas. Finally, we find that areas dominated by manured moss-tundra in the polar desert zone require new methodologies, as moss does not share the seasonal NDVI dynamics of tundra communities.

Monitoring of toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Lalla Takerkoust reservoir by satellite imagery and microcystin transfer to surrounding farms.

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) threaten public health and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. In this study, our main goal was to explore the dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms and how microcystins (MCs) move from the Lalla Takerkoust reservoir to the nearby farms. We used Landsat imagery, molecular analysis, collecting and analyzing physicochemical data, and assessing toxins using HPLC. Our investigation identified two cyanobacterial species responsible for the blooms: Microcystis sp. and Synechococcus sp. Our Microcystis strain produced three MC variants (MC-RR, MC-YR, and MC-LR), with MC-RR exhibiting the highest concentrations in dissolved and intracellular toxins. In contrast, our Synechococcus strain did not produce any detectable toxins. To validate our Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) results, we utilized limnological data, including algal cell counts, and quantified MCs in freeze-dried Microcystis bloom samples collected from the reservoir. Our study revealed patterns and trends in cyanobacterial proliferation in the reservoir over 30 years and presented a historical map of the area of cyanobacterial infestation using the NDVI method. The study found that MC-LR accumulates near the water surface due to the buoyancy of Microcystis. The maximum concentration of MC-LR in the reservoir water was 160 µg L-1. In contrast, 4 km downstream of the reservoir, the concentration decreased by a factor of 5.39 to 29.63 µgL-1, indicating a decrease in MC-LR concentration with increasing distance from the bloom source. Similarly, the MC-YR concentration decreased by a factor of 2.98 for the same distance. Interestingly, the MC distribution varied with depth, with MC-LR dominating at the water surface and MC-YR at the reservoir outlet at a water depth of 10 m. Our findings highlight the impact of nutrient concentrations, environmental factors, and transfer processes on bloom dynamics and MC distribution. We emphasize the need for effective management strategies to minimize toxin transfer and ensure public health and safety.

Pixel walking along the boreal forest-Arctic tundra ecotone: Large scale ground-truthing of satellite-derived greenness (NDVI).

In this Technical Advance, we describe a novel method to improve ecological interpretation of remotely sensed vegetation greenness measurements that involved sampling 24,395 Landsat pixels (30 m) across 639 km of Alaska's central Brooks Range. The method goes well beyond the spatial scale of traditional plot-based sampling and thereby more thoroughly relates ground-based observations to satellite measurements. Our example dataset illustrates that, along the boreal-Arctic boundary, vegetation with the greatest Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is taller than 1 m, woody, and deciduous; whereas vegetation with lower NDVI tends to be shorter, evergreen, or non-woody. The field methods and associated analyses advance efforts to inform satellite data with ground-based vegetation observations using field samples collected at spatial scales that closely match the resolution of remotely sensed imagery.

Integration of satellite remote sensing and MaxEnt modeling for improved detection and management of forest pests.

Forest pests pose a major threat to ecosystem services worldwide, requiring effective monitoring and management strategies. Recently, satellite remote sensing has emerged as a valuable tool to detect defoliation caused by these pests. Lymantria dispar, a major forest pest native to Japan, Siberia, and Europe, as well as introduced regions in North America, is of particular concern. In this study, we used Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to estimate the defoliation area and predict the distribution of L. dispar in Toyama Prefecture, central Japan. The primary aim was to understand the spatial distribution of L. dispar. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) difference analysis estimated a defoliation area of 7.89 km2 in Toyama Prefecture for the year 2022. MaxEnt modeling, using defoliation map as occurrence data, identified the deciduous forests between approximately 35° and 50° at elevations of 400 m and 700 m as highly suitable for L. dispar. This predicted suitability was also high for larval locations but low for egg mass locations, likely due to differences in larval habitats and ovipositing sites. This study is the first attempt to utilize NDVI-based estimates as a proxy for MaxEnt. Our results showed higher prediction accuracy than a previous study based on the occurrence records including larvae, adults, and egg masses, indicating better discrimination of the distribution of L. dispar defoliation. Therefore, our approach to integrating satellite data and species distribution models can potentially enhance the assessment of areas affected by pests for effective forest management.

Green space exposure and Chinese residents' physical activity participation: empirical evidence from a health geography perspective.

Background: With continuous efforts made to promote the strategic goals of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, it is crucial to meet the growing and diversified needs of the public for fitness by practicing the concept of green development and promote the combination of national fitness and ecological civilization. Methods: To achieve this purpose, an OLS regression model was applied to estimate the role of green space exposure in Chinese residents' participation in physical activity and its underlying mechanisms, using the microdata from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) data and the Provincial Vegetation Cover Index (NDVI) matched macrostatistical data. Results: The empirical results show that green space exposure significantly increases the probability of residents' physical activity participation, and creating a green environment is conducive to creating a favorable physical activity environment for residents. Also, the core conclusions still hold after the year-by-year regression test is passed and the endogeneity problem is addressed. As revealed by mechanistic studies, green space exposure has indirect effects on the physical activity participation of residents through the independent mediating roles of reducing carbon emissions and promoting social interaction. According to heterogeneity results, males, those in marriage, and urban dweller groups are more inclined to perform physical activity in green spaces. Conclusion: The results show that the exposure of green space can help increase the probability of residents' participation in physical exercise, and can that it achieved through two channels: reducing carbon emissions and enhancing social interaction. It is necessary to further strengthen the protection of the ecological lifestyle, give full play to the advantages of greenness and low-carbon, and create favorable conditions for the green development of a new model of national fitness.

The Uncertainty Assessment by the Monte Carlo Analysis of NDVI Measurements Based on Multispectral UAV Imagery.

This paper proposes a workflow to assess the uncertainty of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a critical index used in precision agriculture to determine plant health. From a metrological perspective, it is crucial to evaluate the quality of vegetation indices, which are usually obtained by processing multispectral images for measuring vegetation, soil, and environmental parameters. For this reason, it is important to assess how the NVDI measurement is affected by the camera characteristics, light environmental conditions, as well as atmospheric and seasonal/weather conditions. The proposed study investigates the impact of atmospheric conditions on solar irradiation and vegetation reflection captured by a multispectral UAV camera in the red and near-infrared bands and the variation of the nominal wavelengths of the camera in these bands. Specifically, the study examines the influence of atmospheric conditions in three scenarios: dry-clear, humid-hazy, and a combination of both. Furthermore, this investigation takes into account solar irradiance variability and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the camera. Through Monte Carlo simulations, a sensitivity analysis is carried out against each of the above-mentioned uncertainty sources and their combination. The obtained results demonstrate that the main contributors to the NVDI uncertainty are the atmospheric conditions, the nominal wavelength tolerance of the camera, and the variability of the NDVI values within the considered leaf conditions (dry and fresh).

3U CubeSat-Based Hyperspectral Remote Sensing by Offner Imaging Hyperspectrometer with Radially-Fastened Primary Elements.

This paper presents findings from a spaceborne Earth observation experiment utilizing a novel, ultra-compact hyperspectral imaging camera aboard a 3U CubeSat. Leveraging the Offner optical scheme, the camera's hyperspectrometer captures hyperspectral images of terrestrial regions with a 200 m spatial resolution and 12 nanometer spectral resolution across a 400 to 1000 nanometer wavelength range, covering 150 channels in the visible and near-infrared spectrums. The hyperspectrometer is specifically designed for deployment on a 3U CubeSat nanosatellite platform, featuring a robust all-metal cylindrical body of the hyperspectrometer, and a coaxial arrangement of the optical elements ensures optimal compactness and vibration stability. The performance of the imaging hyperspectrometer was rigorously evaluated through numerical simulations prior to construction. Analysis of hyperspectral data acquired over a year-long orbital operation demonstrates the 3U CubeSat's ability to produce various vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). A comparative study with the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 L2A data shows a strong agreement at critical points, confirming the 3U CubeSat's suitability for hyperspectral imaging in the visible and near-infrared spectrums. Notably, the ISOI 3U CubeSat can generate unique index images beyond the reach of Sentinel-2 L2A, underscoring its potential for advancing remote sensing applications.

Facing the challenge of NDVI dataset consistency for improved characterization of vegetation response to climate variability.

Non-linear trend detection in Earth observation time series has become a standard method to characterize changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, results are largely dependent on the quality and consistency of the input data, and only few studies have addressed the impact of data artifacts on the interpretation of detected abrupt changes. Here we study non-linear dynamics and turning points (TPs) of temperate grasslands in East Eurasia using two independent state-of-the-art satellite NDVI datasets (CGLS v3 and MODIS C6) and explore the impact of water availability on observed vegetation changes during 2001-2019. By applying the Break For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST01) method, we conducted a classification typology based on vegetation dynamics which was spatially consistent between the datasets for 40.86 % (459,669 km2) of the study area. When considering also the timing of the TPs, 27.09 % of the pixels showed consistent results between datasets, suggesting that careful interpretation was needed for most of the areas of detected vegetation dynamics when applying BFAST to a single dataset. Notably, for these areas showing identical typology we found that interrupted decreases in vegetation productivity were dominant in the transition zone between desert and steppes. Here, a strong link with changes in water availability was found for >80 % of the area, indicating that increasing drought stress had regulated vegetation productivity in recent years. This study shows the necessity of a cautious interpretation of the results when conducting advanced characterization of vegetation response to climate variability, but at the same time also the opportunities of going beyond the use of single dataset in advanced time-series approaches to better understanding dryland vegetation dynamics for improved anthropogenic interventions to combat vegetation productivity decrease.

Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy.

Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Domestic (re)infestation risk with the main vector Triatoma infestans increases with surrounding green vegetation and social vulnerability in the Argentine Chaco.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is still a public health problem in Latin America and in the Southern Cone countries, where Triatoma infestans is the main vector. We evaluated the relationships among the density of green vegetation around rural houses, sociodemographic characteristics, and domestic (re)infestation with T. infestans while accounting for their spatial dependence in the municipality of Pampa del Indio between 2007 and 2016. METHODS: The study comprised sociodemographic and ecological variables from 734 rural houses with no missing data. Green vegetation density surrounding houses was estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We used a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression composed of fixed effects and spatial random effects to estimate domestic infestation risk and quantile regressions to evaluate the association between surrounding NDVI and selected sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Qom ethnicity and the number of poultry were negatively associated with surrounding NDVI, whereas overcrowding was positively associated with surrounding NDVI. Hierarchical Bayesian models identified that domestic infestation was positively associated with surrounding NDVI, suitable walls for triatomines, and overcrowding over both intervention periods. Preintervention domestic infestation also was positively associated with Qom ethnicity. Models with spatial random effects performed better than models without spatial effects. The former identified geographic areas with a domestic infestation risk not accounted for by fixed-effect variables. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic infestation with T. infestans was associated with the density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses and social vulnerability over a decade of sustained vector control interventions. High density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses was associated with households with more vulnerable social conditions. Evaluation of domestic infestation risk should simultaneously consider social, landscape and spatial effects to control for their mutual dependency. Hierarchical Bayesian models provided a proficient methodology to identify areas for targeted triatomine and disease surveillance and control.

Longitudinal Impacts of Precision Greenness on Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: The potential for greenness as a novel protective factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires further exploration. OBJECTIVES: This study assesses prospectively and longitudinally the association between precision greenness - greenness measured at the micro-environmental level, defined as the Census block - and AD incidence. DESIGN: Older adults living in consistently high greenness Census blocks across 2011 and 2016 were compared to those living in consistently low greenness blocks on AD incidence during 2012-2016. SETTING: Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. PARTICIPANTS: 230,738 U.S. Medicare beneficiaries. MEASUREMENTS: U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Condition Algorithm for AD based on ICD-9 codes, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, age, sex, race/ethnicity, neighborhood income, and walkability. RESULTS: Older adults living in the consistently high greenness tertile, compared to those in the consistently low greenness tertile, had 16% lower odds of AD incidence (OR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.94, p=0.0014), adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood income. Age, neighborhood income and walkability moderated greenness' relationship to odds of AD incidence, such that younger ages (65-74), lower-income, and non-car dependent neighborhoods may benefit most from high greenness. CONCLUSIONS: High greenness, compared to low greenness, is associated with lower 5-year AD incidence. Residents who are younger and/or who reside in lower-income, walkable neighborhoods may benefit the most from high greenness. These findings suggest that consistently high greenness at the Census block-level, may be associated with reduced odds of AD incidence at a population level.