The female population of Chile, 1855-1964: a microcomputer balance sheet method.

PIP: This article summarizes the essential features of the inverse projection method and applies it to data on the female population of Chile for the period 1855-1964. Changes in age distribution, vital rates, life expectancy, fertility, and gross and net reproduction rates over time are described.^ieng

[Population growth rate of one percent in the year 2000: an unattainable target]. / Tasa de crecimiento poblacional de 1% en al ano 2000: una meta inalcanzable.

PIP: The author demonstrates the unattainability of Mexico's population policy target of reducing the natural increase rate to one percent by the end of this century. In order to reach this goal, the net reproduction rate would have to decrease to significantly below replacement level, or 0.667; this would produce dramatic changes in the age structure as well. The policy's objectives are also analyzed in terms of the extent of family planning necessary to reach the target growth rate.^ieng

Recent fertility trends in Suriname.

PIP: A rapid decline in fertility took place in Suriname between 1962 and 1974, and then stopped. While this sudden stabilization is surprising, it is not unusual. Similar trends have occurred in some Caribbean and Latin American countries. This article analyzes the post-1960 trend in fertility in Suriname and seeks to determine whether the 1962-74 fertility decline resulted from changes in socioeconomic conditions or was caused by the activities of the Suriname Family Planning Association. The measures used are the general fertility rate, the total fertility rate by ethnic group as well as by 5-year age groups, and gross and net reproduction rates by ethnic group. All the measures point to a rapid continuing decline of fertility between 1962 and 1974, followed by a rise. The data suggest that major socioeconomic changes had already been under way for some years, when fertility started to fall in 1962. The Suriname Family Planning Association was not founded until 1968, which implies that the organization did not start the decrease. However, once the organization was founded, it continually expanded its activities and made an obvious contribution to the use of contraceptives that increased significantly in the 1970s. It is concluded that the drop in fertility resulted from the process of modernization along with the rapid increase in the use of contraceptives.^ieng

A hypothetical study of populations under constant mortality and fertility.

PIP: 28 countries with different characteristics have been selected in order to observe the amount of time it takes for these different countries to reach stable age distributions. The individual populations by sex and age were projected for 150 years in 5-year intervals with the present constant mortality and fertility schedules by component method. Observations have been made by considering the following characteristics of population when it has acquired stability: age distribution; the rate of growth, birthrate, and mortality rate; the population change; the intrinsic rate of growth, birthrate and mortality rate; and approximate time taken to stabilize the population. The initial age distribution has a significant part in the amount of time it takes for a population to acquire stability, and its intrinsic rate of growth is mostly dependent upon the existing age distribution of that population. The time taken for a country's population to become stable depends upon the age distribution, fertility and mortality schedules at the beginning. It has been observed that countries having a higher intrinsic rate of growth take comparatively less time in acquiring stability than the countries having a lower intrinsic rate of growth. The mortality and fertility schedules of a country is another important phenomenon. The populations of the different countries at the point of stability were growing according to their rates of growth. No specific trend of population growth could be found among the groups of countries. Time taken for stabilizing the population is completely based upon age distributions, fertility and mortality schedules a particular country was having at the beginning. The range of time taken for different countries to acquire stability generally ranged from 100 to 135 years. Among the different countries the relationship for the time it takes to acquire stability has not been established. This is a hypothetical approach in order to obtain some idea as to how a population with different characteristics acts in the long run when some of its characteristics are assumed to be constant.^ieng

[Introduction to population issues: divergent views].

PIP: The population of the world today is approximately 3900 million of which 2800 million come from developing countries. What is most noteworthy about the statistics is the rate at which the population is growing. Only 25 years ago there were about 2500 million people on the earth; in the next 25 years there will be 2500 million more. The upsurge is due in great measure to decreases in mortality rates due to scientific advances without corresponding declines in fertility. The uneven declines in fertility and mortality have also rejuvenated world age structure, especially in developing countries where over 40% of the population is under 15. Such an age structure carries an implicit growth potential however drastic future reductions in fertility may be. Projections for the year 2000 are for 600 million more women between the ages of 15-44. Even developed countries with low growth rates will not achieve net reproduction rates of 1 before 2020. After a net rate of 1 is achieve it takes 50 years to arrive at zero population growth. Another aspect of world population increase is urbanization which has resulted in mass transfers of people from rural and small urban areas to ever-growing agglomerations. It is anticipated that by 2000, half the people of the world will be urban dwellers; in 1975, the figure was 38%. Such mass migration will definitely have socioeconomic consequences.^ieng

World population projections: alternative paths to zero growth.

PIP: This article discusses Frejka's analysis of alternative paths to zero population growth. A net reproduction rate (NRR) of 1 is a vital step in reaching zero growth, but because of age distribution variances, it does not necessarily represent zero growth. The projections described here include: 1)the immediate path of achieving NRR of 1 in 1970-1975: 2)rapid path of an NRR of 1 in 2000-2005: and 3)slow path of NRR of 1 in 2040-2045. The population of the world in the year 2000 would be respectively: 5,700,000,000; 6,000000,000; and 7,000,000,000. Zero growth would be reached in 2000 for the immediate path; in 2100 with a population of 8,000,000,000 in the rapid path; and in 2045 with a population of 15,000,000,000. Individual projections are also given for several countries on different continents.^ieng