A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios.

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

High climatic ancestral affinity between the lineages of the Leishmania vector Psathyromyia shannoni sensu stricto (Diptera: Phlebotominae).

Psathyromyia (Psathyromyia) shannoni sensu stricto (Dyar) is a vector of Leishmania parasite and the second sandfly of medical importance with a wide geographical but discontinuous distribution in America. Preliminary genetic structure analysis using a mitochondrial marker shows that the species integrated by at least four lineages could be the result of ecological adaptations to different environmental scenarios, but this hypothesis had never been proven. The aim of the present study was to analyse whether the genetic structure that detected Pa. shannoni ss. is associated with divergence or conservatism niche. Using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) theory, we estimated the potential distribution for each genetic lineage, and then, we evaluated the equivalency niche for assessing whether climatic niche was more different than expected. The ENMs identify different suitable distribution areas but the same climatic or ecological conditions for the genetic lineages of Pa. shannoni (conservatism niche). Our findings allow us to speculate that other potential processes or events could be related to the genetic differentiation of Pa. shannoni. These studies are important because they allow us to identify the factors that could restrict the potential distribution of the different lineages whose vectorial competence is still unknown.

The Andean Ibis (Theristicus branickii) in South America: potential distribution, presence in protected areas and anthropic threats.

The avifauna of South America is one of the most widely studied groups of vertebrates. However, certain species, such as the Andean Ibis (Theristicus branickii), have received limited attention regarding their ecological patterns, biology, current distribution, and environmental requirements. This study analyzed observation data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) on the Andean Ibis in four countries to identify and understand critical variables that determine the species' presence, assess the proportion of its habitat within protected areas and identify possible threats to the species. Additionally, this study considered environmental and ecological variables to model ecological niches using the maximum entropy approach in MaxEnt to map the suitable habitat of the species. The findings revealed the extent of suitable Andean Ibis habitats in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile. The variables that most determined the presence of the species were: altitude (36.57%), distance to lakes (23.29%) and ecological isothermality (13.34%). The distribution area of the Andean Ibis totaled 300,095.00 km2, spanning both sides of the Andean mountains range. Human activities have left a significant impact on the Andean Ibis habitat, with 48% of this area impacted by the human footprint and only 10% of the territory falling within protected areas designated by the respective countries. The results of this study show that the Andean Ibis presents characteristics of a specialist species due to its adaptation to the climate conditions of the plateau and highlands, including low temperatures, herbaceous vegetation and the presence of water bodies. The species is distributed in disconnected Andean landscape areas, whose functionality could be compromised by increased human activities. Complementary studies will be necessary to understand the ecological role and effectiveness of protected areas for conserving the species.

Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient.

Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have studied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (Capsicum annuum) in its center of origin (domestication). C. annuum is a major crop species globally whose center of domestication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a constant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domestication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes.

Presence of the Eucalyptus snout beetle in Ecuador and potential invasion risk in South America.

Eucalyptus snout beetles are a complex of at least eight cryptic species (Curculionidae: Gonipterus scutellatus complex), native to mainland Australia and Tasmania, that defoliate Eucalyptus trees and are considered important pests. Since the 19th century, three species of the complex have been introduced to other continents. Here, we document the presence of Eucalyptus snout beetles in Ecuador. We used DNA data for species identification and unambiguously demonstrated that the Ecuadorian specimens belong to the species Gonipterus platensis, which has low genetic diversity compared with other species in the complex. We analyzed G. platensis' potential distribution in South America with ecological niche models and found several areas of high to intermediate climatic suitability, even in countries where the pest has not been registered, like Peru and Bolivia. Accurate identification of species in the G. scutellatus complex and understanding of their potential distribution are essential tools for improved management and prevention tactics.

Los gorgojos del eucalipto son un complejo de al menos ocho especies crípticas (Curculionidae: complejo Gonipterus scutellatus), nativos de Australia continental y Tasmania, que defolian árboles de eucalipto y son considerados como plagas de importancia. Desde el siglo 19, tres especies de este complejo se han introducido a otros continentes. En este trabajo reportamos la presencia de gorgojos del eucalipto en Ecuador. Usamos datos genéticos para la identificación específica y demostramos claramente que los especímenes ecuatorianos pertenecen a la especie Gonipterus platensis, la cual tiene baja diversidad genética comparada con otras especies en el complejo. Analizamos la distribución potencial de G. platensis en América del Sur con modelos de nicho ecológico y encontramos varias áreas con idoneidad ambiental alta a intermedia, incluso en países donde esta especie no ha sido registrada, como Perú y Bolivia. La correcta identificación de las especies del complejo Gonipterus scutellatus y una mejor comprensión de su distribución potencial constituyen herramientas fundamentales para optimizar medidas de manejo y prevención.

Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis.

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

Mapping Brazilian Expansion Risk Levels of Mango Weevil (Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius) Based on MaxEnt.

The mango weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae (Fabricius) (Curculionidae), pest present in Brazil and is restricted to some municipalities in the Rio de Janeiro State. This curculionid attacks the mango crop exclusively and puts mango production globally at risk, especially those destined for export. Using ecological modeling tools, this study is the first to map the potential risk of S. mangiferae in Brazil. We aimed to identify the potential distribution of this pest in Brazilian states, drawing up thematic maps of regions that present suitable and unsuitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the pest using the MaxEnt ecological niche model. The average annual temperature, the annual precipitation, the average daytime temperature range, and the annual temperature range were the variables that contributed most to the selected model. The MaxEnt model predicted highly suitable areas for S. mangiferae throughout the Brazilian coast, especially on the northeast coast. The region responsible for more than 50% of mango production in Brazil, the São Francisco Valley, was classified by the model with suitability for the pest; it can impacts exportations due to the imposition of phytosanitary barriers. This information can be used in strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of this pest in new areas and monitor programs in areas with recent occurrence. In addition, the model results can be used in future research plans on S. mangiferae in worldwide modeling studies and climate change scenarios.

Neglected tropical diseases risk correlates with poverty and early ecosystem destruction.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored. METHODS: This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007-2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared. RESULTS: Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages. CONCLUSIONS: Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.

"Does a Respiratory Virus Have an Ecological Niche, and If So, Can It Be Mapped?" Yes and Yes.

Although the utility of Ecological Niche Models (ENM) and Species Distribution Models (SDM) has been demonstrated in many ecological applications, their suitability for modelling epidemics or pandemics, such as SARS-Cov-2, has been questioned. In this paper, contrary to this viewpoint, we show that ENMs and SDMs can be created that can describe the evolution of pandemics, both in space and time. As an illustrative use case, we create models for predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19, viewed as our target "species", in Mexico through 2020 and 2021, showing that the models are predictive in both space and time. In order to achieve this, we extend a recently developed Bayesian framework for niche modelling, to include: (i) dynamic, non-equilibrium "species" distributions; (ii) a wider set of habitat variables, including behavioural, socio-economic and socio-demographic variables, as well as standard climatic variables; (iii) distinct models and associated niches for different species characteristics, showing how the niche, as deduced through presence-absence data, can differ from that deduced from abundance data. We show that the niche associated with those places with the highest abundance of cases has been highly conserved throughout the pandemic, while the inferred niche associated with presence of cases has been changing. Finally, we show how causal chains can be inferred and confounding identified by showing that behavioural and social factors are much more predictive than climate and that, further, the latter is confounded by the former.

3D organoid modeling of extramedullary hematopoiesis.

BACKGROUND: Under certain clinical and experimental conditions hematopoiesis occurs in other site than bone marrow (BM), such as the liver. Here, we develop a 3D organoid that mimics several components of the hematopoietic niche present during liver extramedullary hematopoiesis. AIM: To evaluate the capacity of a 3D hematopoietic organoid (3D-HO) to function as a hematopoietic like-niche allowing for blood cell production outside of the BM. METHODS: The 3D-HO is constituted by liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSEC) as the stromal component, BM isolated from 5-FU treated mice (FU-BMCs), collagen microspheres and plasma clot as scaffolds. The ability of the 3D-HO to support the survival and functionality of FU-BMCs was investigated by using confocal microscopy, histology analysis, flow cytometry, and clonogenic assays. RESULTS: After 15 and 30 days, post-ectopic implantation, histological studies of the 3D-HO showed the presence of cells with myeloid and lymphoid lineage morphology. Flow cytometry analysis of these cells showed the presence of cells expressing hematopoietic stem progenitor cells (HSPC) (Sca-1+/c-Kit+), myeloid (Gr-1+) and lymphoid (B220+ and CD19+) markers. Clonogenic assays showed that cells from the 3D-HO formed hematopoietic colonies. Expression of the Sry gene by cells from the 3D-HO, implanted for 30 days in female mice, indicated that male donor cells persist in this model of extramedullary hematopoiesis. CONCLUSIONS: The 3D-HO constitutes an extramedullary hematopoietic-like niche which supports the survival and functionality of FU-BMCs. It may constitute an efficient model for investigating, in vitro and in vivo, those factors that control hematopoiesis outside BM.

Choosing among correlative, mechanistic, and hybrid models of species' niche and distribution.

Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

Thermal tolerance in Drosophila: Repercussions for distribution, community coexistence and responses to climate change.

Here we combined controlled experiments and field surveys to determine if estimates of heat tolerance predict distributional ranges and phenology of different Drosophila species in southern South America. We contrasted thermal death time curves, which consider both magnitude and duration of the challenge to estimate heat tolerance, against the thermal range where populations are viable based on field surveys in an 8-year longitudinal study. We observed a strong correspondence of the physiological limits, the thermal niche for population growth, and the geographic ranges across studied species, which suggests that the thermal biology of different species provides a common currency to understand how species will respond to warming temperatures both at a local level and throughout their distribution range. Our approach represents a novel analytical toolbox to anticipate how natural communities of ectothermic organisms will respond to global warming.

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. METHODS: We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis. RESULTS: We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.

Physiology, niche characteristics and extreme events: Current and future habitat suitability of a rhodolith-forming species in the Southwestern Atlantic.

Given the ecological and biogeochemical importance of rhodolith beds, it is necessary to investigate how future environmental conditions will affect these organisms. We investigated the impacts of increased nutrient concentrations, acidification, and marine heatwaves on the performance of the rhodolith-forming species Lithothamnion crispatum in a short-term experiment, including the recovery of individuals after stressor removal. Furthermore, we developed an ecological niche model to establish which environmental conditions determine its current distribution along the Brazilian coast and to project responses to future climate scenarios. Although L. crispatum suffered a reduction in photosynthetic performance when exposed to stressors, they returned to pre-experiment values following the return of individuals to control conditions. The model showed that the most important variables in explaining the current distribution of L. crispatum on the Brazilian coast were maximum nitrate and temperature. In future ocean conditions, the model predicted a range expansion of habitat suitability for this species of approximately 58.5% under RCP 8.5. Physiological responses to experimental future environmental conditions corroborated model predictions of the expansion of this species' habitat suitability in the future. This study, therefore, demonstrates the benefits of applying combined approaches to examine potential species responses to climate-change drivers from multiple angles.

Does the African Citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), Represent a Phytosanitary Threat to the Citrus Industry in Mexico?

The African citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), is a vector of Candidatus Liberibacter africanus (CLaf), a pathogen that causes huanglongbing (HLB) in Africa. Trioza erytreae has invaded areas of Asia and Europe and has threatened citrus production due to its biological habits and the transmission of CLaf. Mexico is a country where citrus production has a vital role from the economic and social point of view. Therefore, ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to determine if Mexico has the environmental availability that will allow T. erytreae invasion. We analyzed whether or not the distribution of Casimiroa edulis La Llave (Rutaceae) in the country could be a factor that enables the dispersal of T. eytreae. The environmental connectivity between five points of entry into the country (two ports and three airports) was explored to determine possible routes of dispersal of T. erytrae. The results showed that Mexico has wide availability for the invasion of the African citrus psyllid, which coincides with essential citrus areas of the country and with the distribution of C. edulis. Of the entry points studied, the Port of Veracruz showed nearby areas with environmental connectivity. Preventive monitoring measures for T. erytreae in Mexico should focus on Veracruz state because it has an entry point, ideal environmental availability, citrus areas, and specimens of C. edulis.

Predicted distribution of sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) species involved in the transmission of Leishmaniasis in São Paulo state, Brazil, utilizing maximum entropy ecological niche modeling.

Leishmaniasis is a public health problem worldwide. We aimed to predict ecological niche models (ENMs) for visceral (VL) and cutaneous (CL) leishmaniasis and the sand flies involved in the transmission of leishmaniasis in São Paulo, Brazil. Phlebotomine sand flies were collected between 1985 and 2015. ENMs were created for each sand fly species using Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling software, and 20 climatic variables were determined. Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912), the primary vectors involved in CL and VL, displayed the highest suitability across the various regions, climates, and topographies. L. longipalpis was found in the border of Paraná an area currently free of VL. The variables with the greatest impact were temperature seasonality, precipitation, and altitude. Co-presence of multiple sand fly species was observed in the cuestas and coastal areas along the border of Paraná and in the western basalt areas along the border of Mato Grosso do Sul. Human CL and VL were found in 475 of 546 (86.7%) and 106 of 645 (16.4%) of municipalities, respectively. Niche overlap between N. intermedia and L. longipalpis was found with 9208 human cases of CL and 2952 cases of VL. ENMs demonstrated that each phlebotomine sand fly species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, and the occurrence of the primary vectors of CL and VL overlapped. These data can be used by public authorities to monitor the dispersion and expansion of CL and VL vectors in São Paulo state.

Modelling the present and future distribution of Biomphalaria species along the watershed of the Middle Paranapanema region, São Paulo, Brazil.

The Middle Paranapanema region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, is an area with high diversity for Biomphalaria species, with municipalities historically marked by cases of schistosomiasis transmission. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the current distribuition and predict the future distribution of habitats of Biomphalaria species at a high spatial resolution along 114 freshwater sites in the Middle Paranapanema watershed. The modelling encompassed 55 municipalities of the Middle Paranapanema region, which were analyzed through the maximum entropy algorithm. All geographic coordinates of the Biomphalaria species collected from 2015-2018 and environmental data were obtained through WorldClim, HydroSHEDS, TOPODATA and Secretaria do Meio Ambiente for the 1970-2017 period. For the 2041-2060 period we used the HadGEM2-ES climate model. Due to climate change, MaxEnt showed that there was a high probability for the maintenance of B. glabrata habitats near Ourinhos and Assis, an expansion of scattered spots, and a 50% probability that the species will spread throughout new suitable areas. The results showed that the geographical range of B. straminea will most likely expand in the future along the Middle Paranapanema hydrographic basin, especially in the municipalities near Ourinhos. For B. glabrata and B. straminea, the geographic expansion was related to the predicted increase in the annual temperature range. The habitats suitable for B. tenagophila and B. peregrina seemed to slightly expand around the west border of the Middle Paranapanema region. Biomphalaria occidentalis may have a small reduction in its distribution due to climate change. The variables that contributed the most to the future modelling for these three species were precipitation and temperature. Identifying the sites with intermediate hosts for schistosomiasis may guide public health measures to avoid or reduce future transmissions in this region.

Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru.

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of "high", "moderate" and "low" potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. "High" potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while "moderate" and "low" potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The "moderate", "low" and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while "high" potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

Population expansion of the invasive Pomacentridae Chromis limbata (Valenciennes, 1833) in southern Brazilian coast: long-term monitoring, fundamental niche availability and new records.

Human-mediated species invasions are recognized as a leading cause of global biotic homogenization and extinction. Studies on colonization events since early stages, establishment of new populations and range extension are scarce because of their rarity, difficult detection and monitoring. Chromis limbata is a reef-associated and non-migratory marine fish from the family Pomacentridae found in depths ranging between 3 and 45 m. The original distribution of the species encompassed exclusively the eastern Atlantic, including the Azores, Madeira and the Canary Islands. It is also commonly reported from West Africa between Senegal and Pointe Noire, Congo. In 2008, vagrant individuals of C. limbata were recorded off the east coast of Santa Catarina Island, South Brazil (27° 41' 44″ S, 48° 27' 53″ W). This study evaluated the increasing densities of C. limbata populations in Santa Catarina State shoreline. Two recent expansions, northwards to São Paulo State and southwards to Rio Grande do Sul State, are discussed, and a niche model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was performed to evaluate suitable C. limbata habitats. Brazilian populations are established and significantly increasing in most sites where the species has been detected. The distributional boundaries predicted by the model are clearly wider than their known range of occurrence, evidencing environmental suitability in both hemispheres from areas where the species still does not occur. Ecological processes such as competition, predation and specially habitat selectivity may regulate their populations and overall distribution range. A long-term monitoring programme and population genetics studies are necessary for a better understanding of this invasion and its consequences to natural communities.

The Establishment Risk of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in the United States and Globally.

Native to Asia, the spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White), is an emerging pest of many commercially important plants in Korea, Japan, and the United States. Determining its potential distribution is important for proactive measures to protect commercially important commodities. The objective of this study was to assess the establishment risk of L. delicatula globally and in the United States using the ecological niche model MAXENT, with a focus on Washington State (WA), where large fruit industries exist. The MAXENT model predicted highly suitable areas for L. delicatula in Asia, Oceania, South America, North America, Africa, and Europe, but also predicted that tropical habitats are not suitable for its establishment, contrary to published information. Within the United States, the MAXENT model predicted that L. delicatula can establish in most of New England and the mid-Atlantic states, the central United States and the Pacific Coast states, including WA. If introduced, L. delicatula is likely to establish in fruit-growing regions of the Pacific Northwest. The most important environmental variables for predicting the potential distribution of L. delicatula were mean temperature of driest quarter, elevation, degree-days with a lower developmental threshold value of 11°C, isothermality, and precipitation of coldest quarter. Results of this study can be used by regulatory agencies to guide L. delicatula surveys and prioritize management interventions for this pest.