G20 roadmap for carbon neutrality: The role of Paris agreement, artificial intelligence, and energy transition in changing geopolitical landscape.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in the 21st century is driving profound societal changes and playing a crucial role in optimizing energy systems to achieve carbon neutrality. Most G20 nations have developed national AI strategies and are advancing AI applications in energy, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors to meet this goal. However, disparities exist among these nations, creating an "AI divide" that needs to be addressed for regulatory consistency and fair distribution of AI benefits. Here, we look at the linear effects of AI and the Paris Agreement (AI), as well as their potential interaction on carbon neutrality. We also investigate whether geopolitical risk (GPR) can hinder or enhance efforts to attain carbon neutrality through energy transition (ET). To measure carbon neutrality of G20 countries, we employed a robust parametric Malmquist index combined with the fixed-effect panel stochastic frontier model to account for heterogeneity. Results indicate that from 1990 to 2022, carbon neutrality has improved primarily due to technological advancements. Developed G20 countries led in technological progress, while developing countries showed modest gains in carbon efficiency. Using the Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error method, we found that AI has a positive but insignificant linear effect on carbon neutrality. However, the interaction between PA and AI was positive and statistically significant, suggesting that PA augments AI's potential in accelerating carbon neutrality. Energy transition accelerates carbon neutrality in both developed and developing G20 countries. However, the role of energy transition in achieving carbon neutrality becomes negative when the interaction term between energy transition and geopolitical risk (ET × GRP) is incorporated. Regarding control variables, green innovation positively impacts carbon neutrality, whereas financial development has an insignificant effect. Industrial structure and foreign direct investment both negatively affect carbon neutrality, thereby supporting the pollution haven hypothesis. It is recommended that strategies to bridge the "AI divide" and uphold geopolitical stability are crucial to achieve carbon neutrality.

Monetary policy impact on sustainability: Analyzing interest rates and corporate carbon emissions.

This study aims to investigate the impact of monetary policy on firms' carbon emissions. The primary focus is on the effect of increasing interest rates on the carbon footprint of companies, both prior to and following the implementation of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The results show that there is a positive relationship between interest rates and carbon emissions indicating that in the face of increasing interest rates, companies are more likely to choose short-term financial stability above long-term sustainability objectives. This positive relationship is less prevalent following the Paris Agreement suggesting that policymakers should continue to strengthen global climate initiatives as a pressure for companies to invest in green activities. Additional evidence suggests that the impact of interest rates on carbon emissions is particularly noticeable in situations characterized by elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, weak corporate governance quality, and poor investor protection. These results are robust to endogeneity concerns, alternative measures of interest rates, carbon emission, and alternative samples.

Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets.

Droughts are increasingly frequent as the Earth warms, presenting adaptation challenges for ecosystems and human communities worldwide. A strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the integration of adaptation strategies into policies, plans, and programs (PPP) are two important approaches for enhancing climate resilience and fostering sustainable development. This study developed an innovative approach to strengthen the SEA of droughts by quantifying the impacts of future temperature increases. A novel method for projecting drought events was integrated into the SEA process by leveraging multiple data sources, including atmospheric reanalysis, reconstructions, satellite-based observations, and model simulations. We identified drought conditions using terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies and applied a random forest (RF) model for disentangling the drivers behind drought events. We then set two global warming targets (2.0 °C and 2.5 °C) and analyzed drought changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). In a 2.0 °C warming world, over 50 % of the global surface will face increased drought risk. With an additional 0.5 °C increase, >60 % of the land will be prone to further drought escalation. We utilized copulas to build the joint distribution for drought duration and severity, estimating the joint return periods (JRP) for bivariate drought hazard. In tropical and subtropical regions, JRP reductions exceeding half are projected for >33 % of the regional land surface under 2.0 °C warming and for >50 % under 2.5 °C warming. Finally, we projected the impacts of drought events on population and gross domestic product (GDP). Among the three SSPs, under SSP370, population exposure is highest and GDP exposure is minimal under 2.0 °C warming. Global GDP and population risks from drought are projected to increase by 37 % and 24 %, respectively, as warming continues. This study enhances the accuracy of SEA in addressing drought risks and vulnerabilities, supporting climate-resilient planning and adaptive strategies.

Can Mercury Influence Carbon Dioxide Levels? Implications for the Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

The Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention on Mercury are two of the most important environmental conventions being implemented concurrently, with a focus on reducing carbon and mercury emissions, respectively. The relation between mercury and carbon influences the interactions and outcomes of these two conventions. This perspective investigates the link between mercury and CO2, assessing the consequences and exploring the policy implications of this link. We present scientific evidence showing that mercury and CO2 levels are negatively correlated under natural conditions. As a result of this negative correlation, the CO2 level under the current mercury reduction scenario is predicted to be 2.4-10.1 ppm higher than the no action scenario by 2050, equivalent to 1.0-4.8 years of CO2 increase due to human activity. The underlying causations of this negative correlation are complex and need further research. Economic analysis indicates that there is a trade-off between the benefits and costs of mercury reduction actions. As reducing mercury emission may inadvertently undermine efforts to achieve climate goals, we advocate for devising a coordinated implementation strategy for carbon and mercury conventions to maximize synergies and reduce trade-offs.

Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term.

The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO2 emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO2 emissions recovery for different sectors.

A bibliometric analysis on climate finance: current status and future directions.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, different countries have implemented various measures to achieve climate governance. This has attracted significant attention from the academic community, resulting in a rapid increase in climate finance literature. This study conducts bibliometric analysis and systematic review to identify the development trends and research hotspots in the field of climate finance. The empirical findings reveal that climate finance research primarily focuses on environmental science, energy fuels, economics, and finance. However, there is limited coverage of climate finance content in finance journals. Moreover, scholars in developing countries show less interest in climate finance compared to them in developed countries, and there is limited cross-regional collaboration among scholars from developing countries. Finally, this paper analyzes clustering results to identify and categorize the focal areas dispersed across research articles, and provides future directions for the advancement of climate finance.

Unraveling the non-linear impact of financial development on environmental sustainability: insights from developing countries agreeing the accord.

This study delves into the intricate relationship between financial development and environmental sustainability by considering the role of the Paris Agreement in the context of developing countries. By employing advanced econometric techniques method of moment quantile regression (MMQR) and considering a period spanning from 1996 to 2021, this research unravels the non-linear impact of financial development on environmental degradation while considering population and GDP as control variables. The study reveals an inverted N-shaped relationship between financial development and environmental degradation, indicating that environmental degradation (ED) decreases as financial development increases. However, this is followed by a rise in ED before eventually witnessing a further decline. Additionally, the study highlights the positive correlation between GDP and population with ED across all quantiles, with a more pronounced impact observed in higher quantiles. Furthermore, the coefficient of the Paris Agreement demonstrates its effectiveness in decreasing environmental degradation, particularly at higher quantiles of ED. The findings of this study hold practical implications for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of designing and implementing coherent environmental and economic policies in developing countries. This study contributes to understanding the complex dynamics between financial development and environmental sustainability, offering valuable insights for fostering sustainable development pathways.

Naming and shaming as a strategy for enforcing the Paris Agreement: The role of political institutions and public concern.

Enforcement is a challenge for effective international cooperation. In human rights and environmental law, along with many other domains of international cooperation, "naming and shaming" is often used as an enforcement mechanism in the absence of stronger alternatives. Naming and shaming hinges on the ability to identify countries whose efforts are inadequate and effectively shame them toward better behavior. Research on this approach has struggled to identify factors that explain when it influences state behavior in ways that lead to more cooperation. Via survey of a large (N = 910) novel sample of experienced diplomats involved in the design of the Paris Agreement, we find support for the proposition that naming and shaming is most accepted and effective in influencing the behavior of countries that have high-quality political institutions, strong internal concern about climate change, and ambitious and credible international climate commitments. Naming and shaming appears less effective in other countries, so further enforcement mechanisms will be needed for truly global cooperation. We also find that the climate diplomacy experts favor a process of naming and shaming that relies on official intergovernmental actors, in contrast with studies suggesting that NGOs, media, and other private actors are more effective at naming and shaming. We suggest that these tensions-the inability for naming and shaming to work effectively within the countries least motivated for climate action and the preference for namers and shamers that seem least likely to be effective-will become central policy debates around making cooperation on climate change more enforceable.

Road map for sustainable and effective carbon pricing: bridging the gap of realities and ambitions.

An increase in policy ambition is needed to close the gaps related to climate change mitigation and those required to meet the targets of Paris Agreement. This article examines the contemporary situation of carbon pricing and suggests how carbon costs would help countries adopt comprehensive climate policies. This paper explores the carbon pricing imitative across different regions and the associated issues and proposes how to format holistic, ambitious approaches for effective implementation of carbon pricing. The carbon taxes and emission trading programs are the primary tools for implementation costs. Carbon taxes, fuel taxes, subsidies for fossil energy, and emission trading systems (ETSs) all contribute to these costs. Different countries have adopted different approaches to adopt and mitigate the adverse effect of carbon emissions, but coordinated and integrated efforts are needed. This paper emphasizes the effective carbon pricing and integrating role of finance departments in climate policy; new synergies can be developed to boost government agencies' ability to implement climate policy. Governments may increase their involvement in carbon pricing beyond direct carbon pricing if they implement efficient carbon pricing. Governments, international organizations, and civil society can all play a role in pushing for effective carbon prices to encourage more ambitious targets. Furthermore, the article stresses the need for open communication and a proper understanding of carbon pricing potential to implement climate policy.

Digital transformation and carbon intensity reduction in transportation industry: Empirical evidence from a global perspective.

Digital transformation has become an inevitable trend in industrial development, but research on its environmental benefits has not been conducted in-depth. This paper focuses on the impact and mechanisms of the digital transformation of the transportation industry on its carbon intensity. Empirical tests are conducted based on the panel data of 43 economies from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity, but only the digital transformation that relies on domestic digital sources is significant. Second, technological progress, upgrading the industry's internal structure and improving energy consumption are the main channels through which the digital transformation of the transportation industry reduces its carbon intensity. Third, in terms of subdividing industries, the digital transformation of basic transportation has a more significant effect on reducing carbon intensity. For segmentation digitization, the carbon intensity reduction from digital infrastructure is more significant. This paper serves as a reference for countries to formulate development policies for the transportation industry and implement the Paris Agreement.

A short history of the successes and failures of the international climate change negotiations.

The last 35 years have been a period of intense and continuous international negotiations to deal with climate change. During the same period of time humanity has doubled the amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There has, however, been progress and some notable successes in the negotiations. In 2015, at COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 196 countries adopted the Paris Agreement stating that they would limit global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and would pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The first review of the Paris Agreement was at COP26 in Glasgow with many countries pledging to go to net zero emissions by the middle of the century. But currently these pledges, if fulfilled, will only limit the global average temperature to between 2.4°C and 2.8°C. At COP27 in Egypt the core agreements from the Glasgow Climate Pact were maintained and countries finally agreed to set up a loss and damage facility - although details of who will provide the finance and who can claim are still be to be worked out. This article reviews the key moments in the history of international climate change negotiations and discusses what the key objectives are for future COP meetings.

Climate policy and the concept of co-benefits in India.

Until the late 1990s, developing countries had perceived the pursuit of development as coming into conflict with the mitigation of climate change. Research showed that mitigation and development can go hand in hand, giving rise to the co-benefits approach. In this paper, the relationship between aiming for development and aiming for climate change mitigation is analyzed from the perspective of the developing country India. While industrialized countries prefer the approach of co-benefits of mitigation, developing countries tend to follow the development-first paradigm with mitigation co-benefits, as a literature and document study show. India had a long way to come from the notion that mitigation was threatening economic growth to adopting the co-benefits approach. The paradigms of "differentiated responsibilities" and of having a right to emit as much as the industrialized countries are deeply rooted. This is also shown by India's reaction to the current economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Does corporate carbon performance converge in the global market? Evidence from a distribution dynamic approach.

Converging corporate carbon performance (CCP) to a higher level is necessary to achieve the global goal of controlling temperature rise. However, it remains uncertain whether all international firms endeavour to improve CCP. Using a panel of 19,913 public companies from 76 countries during the 2010-2019 period and two visual tools of the distribution dynamics approach, we conduct a nascent analysis of transitional dynamics and the long-run evolution of CCP. We find that regardless of investigated period (before and after Paris Agreement) and regional location, most firms converge towards the highest CCP of 10, thereby improving carbon performance over time. After Paris Agreement, the convergence to the top CCP is more significant, whereas more companies cluster around the mediocre CCP (a value of 6.7), thus evidencing an increased heterogeneity in convergence paths. Firms from East Asia & Pacific and the North American regions drive such heightened heterogeneity. Specifically, enterprises from East Asia & Pacific show the least convergence towards the highest CCP, probably because more manufacturing firms in the region primarily rely on fossil fuels and face loose environmental regulations. Therefore, further improving CCP may require substantial investments in equipment upgrades and would result in significantly higher costs. For North America, the results can be associated with Donald Trump's policy towards climate change and bid to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, reflecting firms taking a Republican stand, most likely diverging to mediocre CCP and experiencing a decline in future carbon management. The observed convergence towards the highest CCP is nearly twice as significant among firms from OECD than non-OECD countries, which aligns with global enterprises outsourcing emissions to developing countries. The study reveals the pattern of strong convergence to the highest CCP in the global firms as evidence of collective efforts in the transition to net zero. However, divergence and increased heterogeneity may occur in some regions due to politics, industrial structure and regulations.

Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement are the two transformative agendas, which set the benchmarks for nations to address urgent social, economic and environmental challenges. Aside from setting long-term goals, the pathways followed by nations will involve a series of synergies and trade-offs both between and within these agendas. Since it will not be possible to optimise across the 17 SDGs while simultaneously transitioning to low-carbon societies, it will be necessary to implement policies to address the most critical aspects of the agendas and understand the implications for the other dimensions. Here, we rely on a modelling exercise to analyse the long-term implications of a variety of Paris-compliant mitigation strategies suggested in the recent scientific literature on multiple dimensions of the SDG Agenda. The strategies included rely on technological solutions such as renewable energy deployment or carbon capture and storage, nature-based solutions such as afforestation and behavioural changes in the demand side. Results for a selection of energy-environment SDGs suggest that some mitigation pathways could have negative implications on food and water prices, forest cover and increase pressure on water resources depending on the strategy followed, while renewable energy shares, household energy costs, ambient air pollution and yield impacts could be improved simultaneously while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, results indicate that promoting changes in the demand side could be beneficial to limit potential trade-offs.

Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model.

More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.

Identifying Emissions Reduction Opportunities in International Bilateral Emissions Trading Systems to Achieve China's Energy Sector NDCs.

Exploring more emissions reduction opportunities for China's energy sector and lowering China's decarbonisation costs are essential to fulfilling China's nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and making China's sustainable development more feasible. This study explored emissions reduction opportunities for China's energy sector in international bilateral emissions trading systems (ETSs) using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. This study revealed that linking China's ETS to those of regions with lower decarbonisation responsibilities, which tend to be developing regions, could lower China's carbon prices, thus increasing China's domestic energy supply and lowering energy prices (and vice versa). Meanwhile, the volume of emissions from regions linked to China also significantly affected the degree of the change in China's carbon prices. Among these, ETS links to India and Russia could reduce China's carbon price from 7.80 USD/ton under domestic ETS to 2.16 USD/ton and 6.79 USD/ton, allowing the energy sector and energy-intensive sectors to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 1.14% and 7.05%, respectively, without falling short of meeting its NDC targets. In contrast, as a consequence of links with the United States and the European Union, China's carbon price could increase to 5.37 USD/ton and 1.79 USD/ton, respectively, which would limit China's energy and energy-intensive sectors to emitting 5.45% and 2.24% fewer greenhouse gases in order to meet its NDC targets.

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached.

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments-though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability: assessing carbon reduction mitigating measures from the aviation industry.

As many business activities-especially those associated with the energy-intensive industries-continue to be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and hence significantly contributing to global warming, there is a perceived need to identify ways to make business activities eventually carbon neutral. This paper explores the implications of a changing climate for the global tourism business and its intertwining global aviation industry that operates in a self-regulatory environment. Adopting a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the domain of global tourism and climate change (772 articles), the paper reveals the underlying sustainability issues that entail unsustainable energy consumption. The aviation industry as a significant source of carbon emission within the sector is then examined by analyzing the top 20 largest commercial airlines in the world with respect to its ongoing mitigating measures in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. While self-regulatory initiatives are taken to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as alternative fuel production and consumption for drastically reducing carbon emission, voluntary alignment and commitment to long-term targets remain inconsistent. A concerted strategic approach to building up complementary sustainable infrastructures among the global network of airports based in various international tourist destination cities to enable a measurable reduction in carbon emission is necessary to achieve a transformational adaptation of a business sector that is of essence to the recovery of the global economy while attempting to tackle climate change in a post-COVID-19 era.

Construing Climate Change Adaptation as Global Public Good Under International Law: Problems and Prospects.

Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation.

Evolutionary Challenges to Humanity Caused by Uncontrolled Carbon Emissions: The Stockholm Paradigm.

This review paper discusses the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) as a theoretical framework and practical computational instrument for studying and assessing the risk of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) as a result of climate change. The SP resolves the long-standing parasite paradox and explains how carbon emissions in the atmosphere increase parasites' generalization and intensify host switches from animals to humans. The SP argues that the growing rate of novel EID occurrence caused by mutated zoonotic pathogens is related to the following factors brought together as a unified issue of humanity: (a) carbon emissions and consequent climate change; (b) resettlement/migration of people with hyper-urbanization; (c) overpopulation; and (d) human-induced distortion of the biosphere. The SP demonstrates that, in an evolutionary way, humans now play a role migratory birds once played in spreading parasite pathogens between the three Earth megabiotopes (northern coniferous forest belt; tropical/equatorial rainforest areas; and hot/cold deserts), i.e., the role of "super-spreaders" of parasitic viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa. This makes humans extremely vulnerable to the EID threat. The SP sees the +1.0-+1.2 °C limit as the optimal target for the slow, yet feasible curbing of the EID hazard to public health (150-200 years). Reaching merely the +2.0 °C level will obviously be an EID catastrophe, as it may cause two or three pandemics each year. We think it useful and advisable to include the SP-based research in the scientific repository of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since EID appearance and spread are indirect but extremely dangerous consequences of climate change.