Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method: We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased health care utilisation due to Covid on this supply. RESULTS: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of Covid on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multi-professional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. CONCLUSION: It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances.

Expansion of apple cultivation increases the abundance of codling moth (Cydia pomonella) in agricultural landscapes of China.

BACKGROUND: Agricultural land-use change is an important driver of pest population dynamics, and can alter source-sink dynamics and the concentration-dilution effects of the landscape. Understanding the effects of land use on pests at both landscape and regional levels is essential for the development of sustainable pest management strategies given the large changes occurring in cropping systems in China. At the landscape level, we investigated the impacts of landscape composition and edge density on pheromone trap catch of codling moth (Cydia pomonella) in apple orchards, in Aksu, Xinjiang, China. At the regional scale, we conducted a meta-analysis using data from studies performed across the Aksu area in recent decades, to assess the relationship between trends in codling moth abundance and the area of apple cultivation. RESULTS: Both extensive planting of apple and large areas of annual crops in the landscape increased the abundance of codling moth, whereas the presence of secondary host plants (peach, pear, walnut, plum, and apricot) had a negative effect. Seminatural habitats and landscape edge density did not significantly affect codling moth abundance. The responses of different generations of codling moth to landscape factors were varied. At the regional level, codling moth occurrence was positively correlated with the expansion of apple production areas. CONCLUSION: Expansion of apple cultivation increases the abundance of codling moth in agricultural landscapes. We recommend decreasing the area devoted to monocultures of apple when designing agricultural landscapes and increasing plantings of secondary host crops to dilute and reduce the abundance of codling moth. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Adequate nutrient intake mitigate the toxic effects of bromate on the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus.

Bromate is receiving increased attention as a typical disinfection by-product in aquatic environments, but bromate toxicity tests on invertebrate such as Brachionus calyciflorus rotifer are inadequate. In the present study, the long-term toxicity tests on B. calyciflorus were performed during 21 days under the exposure of different bromate concentrations and two algal density conditions. Furthermore, we evaluated the feeding behaviors of the rotifers under the impact of bromate. The maximum population density of rotifers was significantly reduced at 100 and 200 mg/L bromate exposure at the two algal density conditions. However, we observed that the maximum population density and population growth rate of rotifers were higher at 3.0 × 106 cells/mL algal density than those at 1.0 × 106 cells/mL under the same conditions of bromate exposure. These results suggest that higher food density may have alleviated the negative effects of bromate on rotifers. Meanwhile, the ingestion rate at an algal density of 3.0 × 106 cells/mL was higher than that at 1.0 × 106 cells/mL. The present study provides a basic reference to comprehensively evaluate the toxic effects of bromate on aquatic organisms.

Economical Evaluation of Reduced Herbicide Doses Application Rates to Control Phalaris brachystachys (Short-Spiked Canary Grass) in a Biennial Wheat-Sunflower Rotation in Mediterranean Dryland: A Modelling Approach.

Phalaris brachystachys (short-spiked canary grass) is considered to be among the most troublesome cereal weeds in Mediterranean areas. A bioeconomic model, based on population dynamics, competition and economic sub-models, was developed to simulate the long-term economic consequence of using herbicide-based strategies: no herbicide application, full herbicide dose (standard rate) and two reduced dose rates (75 and 50% of the standard rate) to control P. brachystachys in a biennial wheat-sunflower rotation. Simulation results indicated that only herbicide application at a full dose (90% control) and 3/4 dose (80% control) produced positive economic results, with the full dose being the best strategy (EUR 98.65 ha-1 year-1). A sensitivity analysis showed that the economic outcome, in terms of annualized net return, was strongly influenced by changes in yield, price, and fixed costs. In addition, the annualized net return was more sensitive to parameter changes at reduced herbicide doses than at full rate. In the wheat-sunflower rotation system, the application of the full dose of herbicide was the most economical and stable strategy in the long-term. Reduced doses are not a recommended option from an economic point of view. Bioeconomic models provide practical insight into different management approaches for effective weed control.

Research on multi-strategy improved sparrow search optimization algorithm.

To address the issues with inadequate search space, sluggish convergence and easy fall into local optimality during iteration of the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), a multi-strategy improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA), is developed. First, the population dynamic adjustment strategy is carried out to restrict the amount of sparrow population discoverers and joiners. Second, the update strategy in the mining phase of the honeypot optimization algorithm (HBA) is combined to change the update formula of the joiner's position to enhance the global exploration ability of the algorithm. Finally, the optimal position of population discoverers is perturbed using the perturbation operator and levy flight strategy to improve the ability of the algorithm to jump out of local optimum. The experimental simulations are put up against the basic sparrow search algorithm and the other four swarm intelligence (SI) algorithms in 13 benchmark test functions, and the Wilcoxon rank sum test is used to determine whether the algorithm is significantly different from the other algorithms. The results show that the improved sparrow search algorithm has better convergence and solution accuracy, and the global optimization ability is greatly improved. When the proposed algorithm is used in pilot optimization in channel estimation, the bit error rate is greatly improved, which shows the superiority of the proposed algorithm in engineering application.

The role of seasonal migration in spatial population synchrony.

Spatially synchronized population dynamics are common in nature, and understanding their causes is key for predicting species persistence. A main driver of synchrony between populations of the same species is shared environmental conditions, which cause populations closer together in space to be more synchronized than populations further from one another. Most theoretical and empirical understanding of this driver considers resident species. For migratory species, however, the degree of spatial autocorrelation in the environment may change across seasons and vary by their geographic location along the migratory route or on a nonbreeding ground, complicating the synchronizing effect of the environment. Migratory species show a variety of different strategies in how they disperse to and aggregate on nonbreeding grounds, ranging from completely shared nonbreeding grounds to multiple different ones. Depending on the sensitivity to environmental conditions off the breeding grounds, we can expect that migration and overwintering strategies will impact the extent and spatial pattern of population synchrony on the breeding grounds. Here, we use spatial population-dynamic modeling and simulations to investigate the relationship between seasonal environmental autocorrelation and migration characteristics. Our model shows that the effects of environmental autocorrelation experienced off the breeding ground on population synchrony depend on the number and size of nonbreeding grounds, and how populations migrate in relation to neighboring populations. When populations migrated to multiple nonbreeding grounds, spatial population synchrony increased with increasing environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds. Populations that migrated to the same place as near neighbors had higher synchrony at short distances than populations that migrated randomly. However, synchrony declined less across increasing distances for the random migration strategy. The differences in synchrony between migration strategies were most pronounced when the environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds was low. These results show the importance of considering migration when studying spatial population synchrony and predicting patterns of synchrony and population viability under global environmental change. Climate change and habitat loss and fragmentation may cause range shifts and changes in migratory strategies, as well as changes in the mean and spatial autocorrelation of the environment, which can alter the scale and patterns observed in spatial population synchrony.

Untangling the role of temporal and spatial variations in persistence of populations.

We consider a population distributed between two habitats, in each of which it experiences a growth rate that switches periodically between two values, 1-ɛ>0 or -(1+ɛ)<0. We study the specific case where the growth rate is positive in one habitat and negative in the other one for the first half of the period, and conversely for the second half of the period, that we refer as the (±1) model. In the absence of migration, the population goes to 0 exponentially fast in each environment. In this paper, we show that, when the period is sufficiently large, a small dispersal between the two patches is able to produce a very high positive exponential growth rate for the whole population, a phenomena called inflation. We prove in particular that the threshold of the dispersal rate at which the inflation appears is exponentially small with the period. We show that inflation is robust to random perturbation, by considering a model where the values of the growth rate in each patch are switched at random times: we prove that inflation occurs for low switching rate and small dispersal. We also consider another stochastic model, where after each period of time T, the values of the growth rates in each patch is chosen randomly, independently from the other patch and from the past. Finally, we provide some extensions to more complicated models, especially epidemiological and density dependent models.

Benthic ecosystem determines jellyfish blooms by controlling the polyp colony development.

The harmful irregular jellyfish blooms in recent years are difficult to be deciphered by macro hydrographic condition changes. To fundamentally explain the dynamic of jellyfish populations, we shifted the focus to the polyp stage of jellyfish life cycle and local benthic ecosystems. We monitored the population dynamics of Aurelia coerulea polyps in Jiaozhou Bay and other benthic biofouling species in situ to explore the adaptive mechanism of polyps and interspecific interactions in the benthic microhabitat. Our results showed that as temperature increased, the polyps multiplied on the bare substrate, however, other benthic fouling organisms simultaneously invaded the polyp colony according to their different colonisation methods and physiological characteristics. In addition, the polyps were extremely tolerant to food scarcity in the natural environment at low temperatures. Our study indicated that it is necessary to consider the local benthic ecosystem and implement ecosystem-based management strategies to predict and manage problematic jellyfish blooms.

Recent Population Dynamics of Japanese Encephalitis Virus.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) causes acute viral encephalitis in humans and reproductive disorders in pigs. JEV emerged during the 1870s in Japan, and since that time, JEV has been transmitted exclusively throughout Asia, according to known reporting and sequencing records. A recent JEV outbreak occurred in Australia, affecting commercial piggeries across different temperate southern Australian states, and causing confirmed infections in humans. A total of 47 human cases and 7 deaths were reported. The recent evolving situation of JEV needs to be reported due to its continuous circulation in endemic regions and spread to non-endemics areas. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeny and population dynamics of JEV using recent JEV isolates for the future perception of disease spread. Phylogenetic analysis shows the most recent common ancestor occurred about 2993 years ago (YA) (95% Highest posterior density (HPD), 2433 to 3569). Our results of the Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) demonstrates that JEV demography lacks fluctuations for the last two decades, but it shows that JEV genetic diversity has increased during the last ten years. This indicates the potential JEV replication in the reservoir host, which is helping it to maintain its genetic diversity and to continue its dispersal into non-endemic areas. The continuous spread in Asia and recent detection from Australia further support these findings. Therefore, an enhanced surveillance system is needed along with precautionary measures such as regular vaccination and mosquito control to avoid future JEV outbreaks.

Similar regional-scale survival of tropical and southern temperate birds from the New World.

The general assumption that the survival patterns of tropical and southern temperate birds are similar lacks empirical data from higher latitudes. Regional comparisons of New World species are rare, and this assumption has been based on data from African studies. Here, we estimate the survival rates of 88 tropical and southern temperate bird populations (69 species) from eight localities in South America to evaluate the hypothesis that the survival of these populations is homogeneous at the regional scale. We estimated survival based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model and compared values from different environments. The survival estimates ranged from 0.30 to 0.80 (0.56 ± 0.12). Apparent survival did not differ significantly between low-latitude tropical environments (03°S) and the other sites from high-latitudes (between 22° and 34°S). Despite a predicted positive trend, body size was not significantly related to survival among passerines. On the other hand, phylogenetic relationships explained more than a third of the variation in bird survival. Based on the largest available database on South American bird species, our findings support the hypothesis that bird survival is homogeneous, at the regional scale, along the southern hemisphere. In particular, we reinforce the hypothesis that climatic variation has a limited influence on bird survival in the southern hemisphere.

Effect of summer temperature on prolonged diapause of Tettigoniidae (Orthoptera) under realistic field conditions.

To face recurrent temperature changes, tettigoniids inhabiting temperate climates overwinter as eggs in a diapause stage, being able to postpone embryogenesis for one or more years. To date, it is unclear if species living in warm regions, especially under the Mediterranean climate, could exhibit a diapause for a single year or enter a prolonged diapause due to higher summer temperatures experienced by eggs immediately after oviposition. In this two-year study, we tested the effect of summer temperatures on diapause of six Mediterranean tettigoniid species under natural field conditions. We found that five species can exhibit a facultative diapause depending on mean summer temperatures. For two species, a substantial shift in egg development from 50 to 90% occurred over an interval of c. 1 °C after the first summer period. All the species increased considerably their development (nearly 90%) after the second summer period irrespective of temperatures. Overall, this study suggests that diapause strategy and the different thermal sensibility of embryonic development varies considerably across species potentially affecting their population dynamics.

Repeated stand structure inventory dataset in long abandoned deciduous forest reserves in Hungary.

Deeper understanding on natural forest dynamics requires long-term data series from forests that have not been affected by human interventions, which are often scarce especially in the Pannonian Bioregion. Unmanaged, but regularly inventoried forest reserves provide an opportunity to fill this gap. The dataset provides repeated inventory data for 233 permanent plots situated in the core areas of six forest reserves selected from primary forests (Kékes), long abandoned forests (Kecskés-galya, Szalafo, Várhegy) and abandoned ones (Hidegvíz-völgy, Nagy Istrázsa-hegy). The sampled old stands represent the four most widespread hilly forest types in Hungary: Carpathian submountainous beech forest; sessile oak-hornbeam forest; Turkey oak and sessile oak forest; downy oak forest. In each plot, stand level attributes included main mensuration variables (canopy closure, stand height, tree density, basal area, living and dead volume, lying deadwood and admixture of the main tree species). Tree level attributes (diameter at breast height, height measured and estimated, crown position in the canopy, health status, tree history of all trees or shrubs having diameter larger or equal to 5 cm) were also measured in two inventories (after 6-16 years) for a total of 6,986 individual trees sampled in all plots. Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea agg., Q. cerris L., Q. pubescens Willd., Carpinus betulus L., Acer campestre L. and Cornus mas L. were the most abundant. The individual tree history classification refers to regeneration ingrowth, growing phase, mortality, decaying phase and disappearance events, that can be used for calculation of various stand dynamics attributes. The dataset offers valuable opportunities for quantifying changes in stand structures and tree population dynamic attributes after the abandonment of management. Inventory data can be integrated with environmental and climatic information to understand the drivers of forest stand dynamics under a changing climate.

Confidence sets for dynamic poverty indexes.

In this study, we consider different poverty indexes in a dynamic framework where individuals change their rate of income randomly in time. The primary objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of the approximation of the indexes that can be obtained by applying the strong law of large numbers to an economic system composed of an infinite number of agents. The main result is a multivariate central limit theorem for dynamic poverty measures, which is obtained applying the theory of U-statistics. We also show how to get the confidence sets for the considered dynamic indexes, which show the appropriateness of the model. An application to the Italian income data from 1998 to 2012 confirms the effectiveness of the considered approach and the possibility to determine the evolution of poverty and inequality in real economies.

Population Dynamics of Abundant Three Terrestrial Snail Species in Horticultural Fields at Beheira and Giza Governorate, Egypt.

<b>Background and Objective:</b> Studying the population dynamic of the invasive terrestrial snails as agricultural pests, is essential for designing pest control program to reduce the economic losses to commercial field crops, vegetables and fruits. The population dynamic had been estimated for the three terrestrial snails <i>Theba pisana </i>(Müller, 1774) (Helicidae), <i>Eobania vermiculata </i>(Müller, 1774) (Helicidae) and <i>Monacha obstructa</i> (Pfeiffer, 1842) (Hygromiidae) on orange, apple and mango trees in horticultural fields in two locations. These locations are Nobaria City, Beheira Governorate and Mansouria Village, Giza Governorate. This study carried out during the two consecutive activity seasons September, 2018/August, 2019 and September, 2019/August, 2020. <b>Materials and Methods:</b> The population dynamic, incidence and infestation level of terrestrial snails had been recorded on economic host plants such as fruit trees and other field crops and vegetables. The correlations between climatic factors and the population density of land snails were interpreted by statistical analysis for the two seasons. <b>Results:</b> The population density of terrestrial snails increased gradually after winter to reach its maximum density during spring, while the lowest density was recorded in August. The incidence and infestation level of terrestrial snails varied according to the host plant, climatic factors and locality. <i>Eobania vermiculata</i> were the dominant land snail species in Beheira, while <i>Monacha obstructa</i> infested the majority of the examined fruit trees in Giza. <b>Conclusion:</b> Determining the activity and inactivity periods of land snails through the two seasons and their population dynamic will assist in designing effective control management program to decrease the number of pest and the economic losses of agricultural products.

Genetic diversity and population dynamic of Ziziphus jujuba var. spinosa (Bunge) Hu ex H. F. Chow in Central China.

Phylogeographic research concerning Central China has been rarely conducted. Population genetic and phylogeography of Ziziphus jujuba var. spinosa (also called sour jujube) were investigated to improve our understanding of plant phylogeographic patterns in Central China. Single-copy nuclear gene markers and complete chloroplast genome data were applied to 328 individuals collected from 21 natural populations of sour jujube in China. Nucleotide variation of sour jujube was relatively high (π = 0.00720, θ w = 0.00925), which resulted from the mating system and complex population dynamics. Analysis of molecular variation analysis revealed that most of the total variation was attributed to variation within populations, and a high level of genetic differentiation among populations was detected (F st = 0.197). Relatively low long-distance dispersal capability and vitality of pollen contributed to high genetic differentiation among populations. Differences in the environmental conditions and long distance among populations further restricted gene flow. Structure clustering analysis uncovered intraspecific divergence between central and marginal populations. Migrate analysis found a high level of gene flow between these two intraspecific groups. Bayesian skyline plot detected population expansion of these two intraspecific groups. Network and phylogeny analysis of chloroplast haplotypes also found intraspecific divergence, and the divergence time was estimated to occur at about 55.86 Ma. Haplotype native to the Loess Plateau was more ancient, and multiple glacial refugia of sour jujube were found to locate at the Loess Plateau, areas adjacent to the Qinling Mountains and Tianmu Mountains. Species distribution model analysis found a typical contraction-expansion model corresponding to the Quaternary climatic oscillations. In the future, the distribution of sour jujube may shift to high-latitude areas. This study provides new insights for phylogeographic research of temperate plant species distributed in Central China and sets a solid foundation for the application of the scientific management strategy of Z. jujuba var. spinosa.

Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized Anopheles gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will: (1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, (2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and (3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may differ from that of An. gambiae sensu lato. METHODS: A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus sensu stricto collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. The effects of density dependence and seasonality were measured through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates. RESULTS: The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An. funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations. CONCLUSION: The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species.

Regulation of dynamics and densities of whitefly Bemisia tabaci by agricultural landscapes in south China.

Agricultural landscape patterns can affect the population dynamics of pest insects. We selected four landscapes (flower field, mountain, river and urban) based on principal components analysis in Yunnan Province, south China. Through systematic investigation carried out in tomato fields, we intended to clarify the population dynamics and densities of Bemisia tabaci under different landscape types. During the main activity period of B. tabaci, the population densities of B. tabaci nymphs in tomato fields in the river and the urban landscape types were the highest compared to the other landscape types; the population densities of female adults in tomato fields in the river landscape type were also the highest. While the population densities of B. tabaci nymphs and female adults in the flower landscape type, no more than five individuals (ind.) 100 cm-2 leaf in both years, were the lowest. The density of B. tabaci nymphs in the middle position of tomato plants was higher than those in the other positions, while the density of adults in the upper position of tomato plants was higher, regardless of landscape types. Our findings showed that the population growth of B. tabaci can be easily controlled by the flower landscape type.

Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density.

Synthetic gene drive constructs are being developed to control disease vectors, invasive species, and other pest species. In a well-mixed random mating population a sufficiently strong gene drive is expected to eliminate a target population, but it is not clear whether the same is true when spatial processes play a role. In species with an appropriate biology it is possible that drive-induced reductions in density might lead to increased inbreeding, reducing the efficacy of drive, eventually leading to suppression rather than elimination, regardless of how strong the drive is. To investigate this question we analyse a series of explicitly solvable stochastic models considering a range of scenarios for the relative timing of mating, reproduction, and dispersal and analyse the impact of two different types of gene drive, a Driving Y chromosome and a homing construct targeting an essential gene. We find in all cases a sufficiently strong Driving Y will go to fixation and the population will be eliminated, except in the one life history scenario (reproduction and mating in patches followed by dispersal) where low density leads to increased inbreeding, in which case the population persists indefinitely, tending to either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. These dynamics arise because Driving Y males have reduced mating success, particularly at low densities, due to having fewer sisters to mate with. Increased inbreeding at low densities can also prevent a homing construct from eliminating a population. For both types of drive, if there is strong inbreeding depression, then the population cannot be rescued by inbreeding and it is eliminated. These results highlight the potentially critical role that low-density-induced inbreeding and inbreeding depression (and, by extension, other sources of Allee effects) can have on the eventual impact of a gene drive on a target population.

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To explore the differences between growth and population dynamics of natural Lycorma delicatula in the plantations and semi-natural forests, the susceptible stages and major suppression factors were determined to provide basis for the prediction and controlling the pest. The development duration and life table of L. delicatula in different habitats were established by using tracking method. The index of exclusion effect for lethal factors and the K-value in each development stage were calculated. The population trends were analyzed through the survival curve and key drivers of population change. The results showed that the development duration of L. delicatula in the plantation habitat and semi-natural habitat was significantly different, with thelatter being 25.7 d longer than the former. There were significant differences in the development duration of 1st-3rd-instars nymphs and pre-oviposition period of adults between these two habitats, but no significant difference in the 4th-instar nymphs. The total mortality rate in the plantation habitat and semi-natural habitat was 83.6% and 98.6%, respectively. The index of population trend in the plantation habitat was significantly higher than that in the semi-natural habitat. The population of L. delicatula increased sharply in the plantation habitat, but showed a decline trend in the semi-natural habitat. All of the survival curves of L. delicatula were Deevey-Ⅲ type, and the EIPCs of the "parasitic natural enemies" in egg stage were the highest in both habitats as 1.3 and 1.6, and the total K values were 0.2 and 0.3, respectively. The regression slopes of K-value of natural enemies were the highest (both 0.6). These findings revealed that the semi-natural habitat played an important role in the natural regulation of L. delicatula.

Ecological ramifications of adaptation to size-selective mortality.

Size-selective mortality due to harvesting is a threat to numerous exploited species, but how it affects the ecosystem remains largely unexplored. Here, we used a pond mesocosm experiment to assess how evolutionary responses to opposite size-selective mortality interacted with the environment (fish density and light intensity used as a proxy of resource availability) to modulate fish populations, prey community composition and ecosystem functions. We used medaka (Oryzias latipes) previously selected over 10 generations for small size (harvest-like selection; small-breeder line) or large size (large-breeder line), which displayed slow somatic growth and early maturity or fast somatic growth and late maturity, respectively. Large-breeder medaka produced more juveniles, which seemed to grow faster than small-breeder ones but only under high fish density. Additionally, large-breeder medaka had an increased impact on some benthic prey, suggesting expanded diet breadth and/or enhanced foraging abilities. As a consequence, increased light stimulated benthic algae biomass only in presence of large-breeder medaka, which were presumably better at controlling benthic grazers. Aggregated effect sizes at the community and ecosystem levels revealed that the ecological effects of medaka evolution were of similar magnitude to those induced by the environment and fish introduction. These findings indicate the important environmental dependency of evolutionary response to opposite size-selective mortality on higher levels of biological organizations.