The adaptability and irrigation constraints analysis of the WOFOST model for grain production in the Songhua River Basin.

BACKGROUND: The Songhua River Basin, a vital grain-producing area in China, faces challenges due to the uneven distribution of water resources and the intensive water demands of agriculture. To enhance agricultural development and effectively manage water scarcity, it is essential to identify the water-saving potential of major staple crops - corn, wheat, and rice. This study enhances the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model by refining the day of year for the developmental vegetative stage (DVS), thereby improving the representation of phenological stages for spring maize, spring wheat, and rice within the model. This refinement offers a detailed analysis of the potential and rainfed yields. RESULTS: The results from the modified WOFOST model show promising simulation outcomes for the biomass and yield of maize, wheat, and rice, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and index of agreement (IoA) values all exceeding 0.7. An analysis of photothermal potential yields (Yp) and rainfed yields (Yr) revealed minimal differences in yields for spring maize and rice across various rainfall frequencies. Specifically, the average photothermal utilization rates (LTs) are 93.57% for maize and 85.25% for rice. In contrast, the rainfed yield for wheat is lower than its photothermal yield, with an LT of 43.66%. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that in the Songhua River Basin, maize and rice offer greater potential for water conservation compared to wheat. It is recommended to judiciously reduce irrigation during the growing seasons of spring maize and rice to help alleviate agricultural water use pressures. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth.

To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations' requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000-2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P < 0.05) increase in 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to climate change in China. However, when considering population and climate changes, the predicted per capita production values were 125.3 ± 0.3, 127.1 ± 2.3 and 128.8 ± 2.7 kg during the 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050 periods under RCP4.5, or 126.2 ± 0.7, 128.7 ± 2.5, and 131.0 ± 4.1 kg, respectively, under RCP8.5. These values do not significantly differ (P > 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x.

Variation characteristics of climatic potential yield and resources utilization efficiency of maize under the background of climate change in agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu, China.

To evaluate the effects of changes in radiation, accumulative temperature, precipitation and climate resources on climate resource utilization efficiency in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, we analyzed the variations of climate potential yield loss rate, light, heat, precipitation and comprehensive utilization efficiency of climate resources in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province by the step-by-step correction and indexation method, with the 1971-2020 weather data from 45 meteorological sites and the maize phenology data. The results showed that solar radiation showed fluctuating downward trend at a rate of -22.03 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1, the accumulative ≥11 ℃ temperature showed significant upward trend at a rate of 60.89 ℃·(10 a)-1, the precipitation showed slow upward trend at a rate of 2.05 mm·(10 a)-1 during the study period. The climate potential yield loss rate due to temperature and precipitation limitations was relatively high in Gannan and the northern part of Longzhong, while it was relatively low in the most areas of Longdong. Except for the central part of the study area and part of Longdong, the climate potential yield loss rate due to temperature and precipitation limitations in other regions of the study area showed decreased trend at the rate of -2.0%·(10 a)-1 and -0.6%·(10 a)-1. The low-value areas of light and heat utilization efficiency distributed in the northern and southern parts of Longzhong and part of Gannan, the low-value area of precipitation utilization efficiency distributed in Gannan, and the low value of comprehensive utilization efficiency distributed in Lanzhou and Baiyin which were 0.41 and 0.47, respectively. Longdong was the most suitable for maize planting, where the climate resources utilization efficiency of maize was highest, followed by Gannan and Longzhong. The average tendency rate of light, heat, precipitation and climate resources comprehensive utilization efficiency in the study area showed increased trend, which were 0.1%·(10 a)-1, 0.07 kg·hm-2·â„ƒ-1·d-1·(10 a)-1, 1.17 kg·hm-2·mm-1·(10 a)-1 and 0.05 ·(10 a)-1, respectively, showing a good potential to increase maize yield.

Yield gap analysis of rainfed alfalfa in the United States.

The United States (US) is the largest alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) producer in the world. More than 44% of the US alfalfa is produced under rainfed conditions, although it requires a relatively high amount of water compared to major field crops. Considering that yield and production of rainfed alfalfa have been relatively stagnant in the country for decades, there is a need to better understand the magnitude of yield loss due to water limitation and how far from yield potential current yields are. In this context, the main objective of this study was to estimate the current yield gap of rainfed alfalfa in the US. We collected 10 year (2009-2018) county-level government-reported yield and weather data from 393 counties within 12 major US rainfed alfalfa producing states and delineated alfalfa growing season using probabilistic approaches based on temperature thresholds for crop development. We then calculated county-level growing season rainfall (GSR), which was plotted against county-level yield to determine attainable yield (Ya) using frontier function analysis, and water-limited potential yield (Yw) using boundary function analysis. Average and potential water use efficiencies (WUE) were estimated, and associated yield gap referring to attainable (YGa) or water-limited yields (YGw) were calculated. Finally, we used conditional inference trees (CIT) to identify major weather-related yield-limiting factors to alfalfa forage yield. The frontier model predicted a mean Ya of 9.6 ± 1.5 Mg ha-1 and an associated optimum GSR of 670 mm, resulting in a mean YGa of 34%. The boundary function suggested a mean Yw of 15.3 ± 3 Mg ha-1 at the mean GSR of 672 ± 153 mm, resulting in a mean yield gap of 58%. The potential alfalfa WUE was 30 kg ha-1 mm-1 with associated minimum water losses of 24% of mean GSR, which was three times greater than the mean WUE of 10 kg ha-1 mm-1. The CIT suggested that GSR and minimum temperature in the season were the main yield-limiting weather variables in rainfed alfalfa production in the US. Our study also revealed that alfalfa was only limited by water availability in 21% of the environments. Thus, future research on management practices to narrow yield gaps at current levels of water supply is necessary.

On-farm assessment of eucalypt yield gaps - a case study for the producing areas of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

The concept of yield gaps provides a basis for identifying the main sources of production losses, caused by water or management deficiencies, which may help foresters and forest companies to better plan and make decisions in their areas. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the magnitude and the major causes of yield gaps of eucalypts, being this the most planted forest genus in Brazil, in different producing regions of the state of Minas Gerais that has the largest planted area. To these ends, potential (Yp) and attainable (Ya) yields were simulated using the agroecological zone model (AEZ-FAO) adapted and calibrated for Brazilian eucalypt clones. Actual yield (Yr) data were obtained from 22 sites located in the state of Minas Gerais from 2009 to 2016, considering an average forest rotation of 6.7 years and plantings occurring between 2002 and 2010. From this, the total yield gap (YGtot), yield gap by water deficit (YGwd), and yield gap by sub-optimal management (YGman) were determined. The YGwd ranged from 37 to 69 m3 ha-1 year-1 across the 22 sites assessed, with an average value of 55 m3 ha-1 year-1. On the other hand, the YGman ranged from zero (optimal management) to 31 m3 ha-1 year-1. The eucalypt yield gap in commercial areas of Minas Gerais state was mainly caused by water deficit, which represented 77% of the total yield gap. On the other hand, the deficiencies in forest management accounted for 23% of the total yield gap.

Open Data to Support Agricultural Diversification (version October 2020).

Following the development of a database that was specifically designed to store value chain information, particularly for underutilised crops, this article describes the data that are currently stored in the database and accessible through its web portal. The data includes various datasets on utilisation status, agro-ecological requirements and season lengths, potential yield and nutritional composition of crops. The data are stored in the form of tables with fixed data elements (column attributes). This article outlines the standard procedures (SOPs) that were developed in-house for data collection, metadata creation and data curation. These processes were used to ensure the quality and reusability of the data that is made available publicly through the database interface. Various statistics and example visualisations are provided to demonstrate the significance of such data for developing solutions for sustainable agricultural diversification.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Maize Potential Yield and Yield Gaps in Northeast China from 1990 to 2015.

Maize yield has undergone obvious spatial and temporal changes in recent decades in Northeast China. Understanding how maize potential yield has changed over the past few decades and how large the gaps between potential and actual maize yields are is essential for increasing maize yield to meet increased food demand in Northeast China. In this study, the spatial and temporal dynamics of maize potential yield in Northeast China from 1990 to 2015 were simulated using the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model at the pixel level firstly. Then, the yield gaps between actual and potential yields were analyzed at city scale. The results were the following. (1) The maize potential yield decreased by about 500 kg/ha and the potential production remained at around 260 million tonnes during 1990-2000. From 2000 to 2015, the maize potential yield and production increased by approximately 1000 kg/ha and 80 million tonnes, respectively. (2) The maize potential yield decreased in most regions of Northeast China in the first decade, such as the center area (CA), south area (SA), southwest area (SWA), and small regions in northeast area (NEA), due to lower temperature and insufficient rainfall. The maize potential yield increased elsewhere. (3) The maize potential yield increased by more than 1000 kg/ha in the center area (CA) in the latter 15 years, which may be because of the climate warming and sufficient precipitation. The maize potential yield decreased elsewhere and Harbin in the center area (CA). (4) In 40 cities of Northeast China, the rates of actual yield to potential yield in 17 cities were higher than 80%. The actual yields only attained 50-80% of the potential yields in 20 cities. The gaps between actual and potential yields in Hegang and Dandong were very large, which need to be shrunk urgently. The results highlight the importance of coping with climate change actively, arranging crop structure reasonably, improving farmland use efficiency and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

[Spatial-temporal variations of spring maize potential yields in a changing climate in Northeast China.] / 气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米产量潜力的时空特征.

Based on meteorological data, agro-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data in Northeast China (NEC), by using the validated Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM-maize), the potential, attainable, potential farmers' and actual farmers' yields of spring maize during the period 1961 to 2015 were analyzed, and the effects of climate variation on maize potential yield in NEC were quantified. Results indicated that the potential yield of spring maize was 12.2 t·hm-2 during the period 1961 to 2015, with those in northeast being lower than southwest within the study region. The attainable yield of spring maize was 11.3 t·hm-2, and showed a similar spatial distribution with potential yield. Under the current farmers' management practices, mean simulated potential and actual farmers' yields were 6.5 and 4.5 t·hm-2, respectively. Assuming there were no changes in cultivars and management practices in NEC, the mean potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields of spring maize would decrease by 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t·hm-2 per decade in NEC. However, the actual farmers' yields increased with the value of 1.27 t·hm-2 per decade averaged over NEC. Due to climate variation, year-to-year variations of spring maize potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields were significant, ranging from 10.0 to 14.4, 9.8 to 13.3, 4.4 to 8.5 t·hm-2, respectively.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain.

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha(-1) year(-1), except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

An evaluation of the potential yield of indium recycled from end-of-life LCDs: A case study in China.

With the advances in electronics and information technology, China has gradually become the largest consumer of household appliances (HAs). Increasingly, end-of-life (EOL) HAs are generated in China. EOL recycling is a promising strategy to reduce dependence on virgin production, and indium is one of the recycled substances. The potential yield of indium recycling has not been systematically evaluated in China thus far. This paper estimates the potential yield of recycled indium from waste liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in China during the period from 2015 to 2030. The quantities of indium that will be used to produce LCDs are also predicted. The estimates focus on the following three key LCD waste sources: LCD TVs, desktop computers and portable computers. The results show that the demand for indium will be increasing in the near future. It is expected that 350 tonnes of indium will be needed to produce LCDs in China in 2035. The indium recycled from EOL LCDs, however, is much less than the demand and only accounts for approximately 48% of the indium demand. The sustainable index of indium is always less than 0.5. Therefore, future indium recycling efforts should focus on the development of recycling technology and the improvement of the relevant policy.

New model for sustainable management of pressurized irrigation networks. Application to Bembézar MD irrigation district (Spain).

Pressurized irrigation networks require large amounts of energy for their operation which are linked to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In recent years, several management strategies have been developed to reduce energy consumption in the agricultural sector. One strategy is the reduction of the water supplied for irrigation but implies a reduction in crop yields and farmer's profits. In this work, a new methodology is developed for sustainable management of irrigation networks considering environmental and economic criteria. The multiobjective non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II) has been selected to obtain the optimum irrigation pattern that would reduce GHG emissions and increase profits. This methodology has been applied to Bembézar Margen Derecha (BMD) irrigation district (Spain). Irrigation patterns that reduce GHG emissions or increase actual profits are obtained. The best irritation pattern reduces the current GHG emissions in 8.56% with increases the actual profits in 14.56%. Thus, these results confirm that simultaneous improvements in environmental and economic factors are possible.

Scope for improved eco-efficiency varies among diverse cropping systems.

Global food security requires eco-efficient agriculture to produce the required food and fiber products concomitant with ecologically efficient use of resources. This eco-efficiency concept is used to diagnose the state of agricultural production in China (irrigated wheat-maize double-cropping systems), Zimbabwe (rainfed maize systems), and Australia (rainfed wheat systems). More than 3,000 surveyed crop yields in these three countries were compared against simulated grain yields at farmer-specified levels of nitrogen (N) input. Many Australian commercial wheat farmers are both close to existing production frontiers and gain little prospective return from increasing their N input. Significant losses of N from their systems, either as nitrous oxide emissions or as nitrate leached from the soil profile, are infrequent and at low intensities relative to their level of grain production. These Australian farmers operate close to eco-efficient frontiers in regard to N, and so innovations in technologies and practices are essential to increasing their production without added economic or environmental risks. In contrast, many Chinese farmers can reduce N input without sacrificing production through more efficient use of their fertilizer input. In fact, there are real prospects for the double-cropping systems on the North China Plain to achieve both production increases and reduced environmental risks. Zimbabwean farmers have the opportunity for significant production increases by both improving their technical efficiency and increasing their level of input; however, doing so will require improved management expertise and greater access to institutional support for addressing the higher risks. This paper shows that pathways for achieving improved eco-efficiency will differ among diverse cropping systems.

Rendimento de grãos e eficiência no uso de água de arroz irrigado em função da época de semeadura / Grain yield and water use efficiency in irrigated rice according to sowing date

Uma das práticas desafiadoras de manejo é aumentar a produção de arroz utilizando menos água. O experimento foi realizado nas safras de 2010/11 e 2011/12 na área experimental da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul. O objetivo foi avaliar o rendimento de grãos e a eficiência do uso de água na semeadura no início e final da época recomendada. Os tratamentos foram as épocas de semeadura (01/10/10 e 01/12/10) safra 2010/11, e (27/09/11 e 07/12/11) safra 2011/12, com cinco repetições, e a cultivar utilizada foi a 'IRGA 424'. Não houve diferença no volume de água aplicado entre as épocas de semeadura, com volume médio de 5757 e 8420m³ ha-1, respectivamente, para safra 2010/11 e 2011/12. A época de semeadura afetou o rendimento de grãos, com rendimento de 13 e 24% a mais nas semeaduras do início da época (01/10/10 e 27/09/11), comparado às semeaduras do final da época (01/12/10 e 07/12/11), respectivamente. A semeadura realizada no início da época recomendada (início de outubro) proporciona maior rendimento de grãos e maior eficiência no uso de água.

One of the challenging management practices is to increase rice production using less water. The study was conducted during the harvest of 2010/11 and 2011/12 in the experimental field of Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The objective was to evaluate the yield and water use efficiency at sowing at beginning and end of the recommended time. Treatments were at planting dates (10/01/10 and 12/01/10) 2010/11 harvest, and (9/27/11 and 12/07/11) 2011/12 harvest, with five replicates, the cultivar used was the 'IRGA 424'. There was no difference in the amount of applied water between sowing times, with an average of 5757 and 8420m³ ha-1, respectively for season 2010/11 and 2011/12. The sowing date affected grain yield, with yields of 13 and 24% more in the beginning of the sowing season (10/01/10 and 9/27/11) compared to the end of the sowing date (12/01/10 and 12/07/11), respectively. Sowing early in the recommended period (early October) provides greater yield and more water use efficiency.

Eficiência agrícola da produção de soja, milho e trigo no estado do Rio Grande do Sul entre 1980 e 2008 / Agricultural efficiency of soybean, corn and wheat production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 1980 and 2008

Eficiência agrícola (EA) é utilizada como indicador do nível de desenvolvimento agrícola regional, expressando, por meio da relação entre as produtividades real e atingível, o nível tecnológico empregado nas culturas. Com base nisso, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a EA das culturas da soja, do milho e do trigo para o estado do Rio Grande do Sul, entre os anos de 1980 e 2008, identificando os principais fatores que as condicionaram. A EA foi obtida pela relação entre a produtividade atingível (PA) e a real (PR). A PR foi obtida junto ao banco de dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). A PA foi obtida pela estimativa da produtividade potencial (PPf), pelo método de Zona Agroecológica da FAO, deflacionada pelo déficit hídrico em cada uma das fases da cultura. Verificou-se que as EAs médias para as culturas do milho, da soja e do trigo para o RS foram iguais a 54, 61 e 43 por cento, respectivamente. Nas localidades de Santa Rosa, São Borja e Veranópolis, a EA para a soja foi, ao contrário das demais localidades, negativa. Os principais fatores que contribuíram para o aumento da EA, na maioria das localidades, foram: mudanças no uso e fertilidade do solo; uso de mecanização agrícola; preços pagos pelas commodities; investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento; adoção do zoneamento de risco climático; e melhoramento genético.

Agricultural efficiency (EA) is used as an indicator of the level of regional agricultural development, reflecting, by mean of the ratio between actual and achievable yields, the crop technology level. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the EA for soybean, corn and wheat crops in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 1980 and 2008, identifying the main factors which conditioned it. EA was obtained by the relationship between the achievable yield (PA) and actual crop yield (PR). PR was obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) data base. PA was obtained by estimating the potential yield (PPf) with the FAO Agroecological Zone method, penalized by the water deficit for each crop phase. Average EAs for corn, soybean and wheat crops were 54, 61 and 43 percent, respectively. On the contrary of the majority of location, in Santa Rosa, São Borja and Veranópolis EA values were negative for soybean crop. The main factors that contributed to the increase of EA, in the majority of the locations, were: change on the soil use and fertility; use of agricultural machinery; prices paid for commodities; investments in research and development; climatic risk zoning; and plant breeding.