Determining factors on length of stay in primary total knee arthroplasty patients using enhanced recovery protocol after surgery (ERAS) pathway. / Factores determinantes de la duración de la estancia hospitalaria en pacientes operados de artroplastia primaria total de rodilla usando un protocolo de recuperación mejorada (ERAS).

INTRODUCTION: There is an increase in degenerative arthropathies because of the increase in the longevity of world's population, making primary knee arthroplasties a procedure to recover quality of life without pain. There are factors associated with the length of hospital stay after this procedure. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk factors influencing the hospital stay during the postoperative period of patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty with an enhanced recovery after surgery protocol (ERAS). METHODS: A retrospective study is carried out on patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty at a University Hospital in the period 2017-2020 using the ERAS protocol, during which 957 surgeries were performed. RESULTS: Average age of 71.7 ± 8.2 years, 62.4% were women and the 77.3% were classified as ASA II. The significantly associated factors to an increased length of stay are: age (P = .001), ASA scale (P = .04), day of surgery (P < .001), blood transfusion (P < .001), postoperative haemoglobin level at 48-72 h (P < .001), the time of first postoperative mobilization to ambulate and climb stairs (P < .001), the need for analgesic rescues (P = .003), and the presence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: There are statistically significant and clinically relevant factors associated with hospital stay. Determining these factors constitutes an advantage in hospital management, in the development of strategies to improve and optimize the quality of care and available health resources.

Predictors of adherence to follow-up and treatment success in childhood obesity.

INTRODUCTION: Management of childhood obesity, based upon behavioural, physical activity and dietary guidance, usually achieves limited success and is hindered by a high attrition rate. The identification of potential predictors of either weight loss or early weight management attrition could help develop personalised management plans in order to improve patient outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in a cohort of 1300 patients with obesity managed in speciality clinics for up to 5 years with outpatient conservative treatment. We studied the family background and personal characteristics (demographic, behavioural, psychosocial, anthropometric and metabolic) of patients who dropped out before completing the first year of the programme and patients who achieved significant weight loss, with a separate analysis of patients who achieved substantial reductions in weight compared to the rest of the cohort. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients in the cohort was 10.46 years (SD, 3.48) the mean BMI z-score 4.01 (SD, 1.49); 52.8% of the patients were male, 53.3% were prepubertal, 75.8% were Caucasian and 19% Latin. We found a higher proportion of Latinla ethnicity and compulsive eating in the group of patients with early attrition from the weight management follow-up. In the group of patients with substantial weight loss, a greater proportion were male, there was a higher frequency of dietary intake control at home and obesity was more severe, and the latter factor was consistently observed in patients who achieved substantial weight loss at any point of the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Some family and personal characteristics in childhood obesity are associated with an increased risk of early withdrawal from follow-up or a greater probability of successful outcomes; however, the predictive value of these variables is limited.

Associated factors with the occurrence of in-hospital cardiac arrest in patients admitted to internal medicine wards for non-cardiovascular causes. / Factores asociados a la ocurrencia de paro cardiaco intrahospitalario en pacientes ingresados en salas de medicina interna por causas no cardiovasculares.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has a low survival rate, so it is essential to recognize the cases with the highest probability of developing it. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with the occurrence of IHCA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A single-center case-control study was conducted including 65 patients admitted to internal medicine wards for non-cardiovascular causes who experienced IHCA, matched with 210 admitted controls who did not present with IHCA. RESULTS: The main reason for admission was pneumonia. The most prevalent comorbidity was arterial hypertension. Four characteristics were strongly and independently associated with IHCA presentation, these are electrical left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (OR: 13.8; 95% IC: 4.7-40.7), atrial fibrillation (OR: 9.4: 95% CI: 4.3-20.6), the use of drugs with known risk of torsades de pointes (OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.3-5.5) and the combination of the categories known risk plus conditional risk (OR: 17.1; 95% CI: 6.7-50.1). The first two detected in the electrocardiogram taken at the time of admission. CONCLUSION: In admitted patients for non-cardiovascular causes, the use of drugs with a known risk of torsades de pointes, as well as the detection of electrical LVH and atrial fibrillation in the initial electrocardiogram, is independently associated with a higher probability of suffering a IHCA.

Response predictors to cardiac resynchronization therapy in chronic heart failure: a 10-year-cardiovascular center experience.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has been established as an effective therapy for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Randomized clinical trials have shown its impact on mortality and HF hospitalizations, as well as improvement of symptoms and quality of life. OBJECTIVES: Finding clinical, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic variables that may predict the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). METHODS: We performed a single-center, observational, analytic, and retrospective study that included 102 patients with heart failure (HF) diagnosis who underwent CRT according to guideline-directed therapy from January 2010 to April 2020 in a third-level center. CRT response was defined as an improvement of New York Heart Association functional class in at least 1 category associated with a recovery of ≥ 5% in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). RESULTS: Our study population was 102 patients of which 61 (59.8%) were men. The mean age at HF diagnosis was 54 ± 18.7 years. Ischemic heart disease was the etiology in 37 (36.3%) cases. Fifty-one (50%) patients were classified as responders. Responders had wider QRS, and lower LVEF and right ventricular fractional area change at baseline. After CRT, responders had a greater reduction of QRS duration, and improvement in LVEF, global longitudinal strain, and echocardiographic dyssynchrony parameters. Multivariate regression analysis showed that left bundle branch block (LBBB), left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and baseline difference of pre-ejection periods were predictors of a positive response to CRT in this population. CONCLUSIONS: LBBB, TAPSE, LVEDV, and pre-ejection time difference are independent variables that can predict adequate response to CRT.

ANTECEDENTES: La terapia de resincronización cardíaca (TRC) se ha establecido como una terapia efectiva para la insuficiencia cardíaca con fracción de eyección reducida. Ensayos clínicos aleatorizados han demostrado su impacto en la mortalidad y hospitalizaciones por insuficiencia cardíaca, así como la mejora de los síntomas y la calidad de vida. OBJETIVOS: Determinar las variables clínicas, electrocardiográficas y ecocardiográficas que puedan predecir la respuesta a la terapia de resincronización cardíaca (TRC). MÉTODO: Estudio unicéntrico, observacional, analítico, retrospectivo, que incluyó 102 pacientes con diagnóstico de IC sometidos a TRC y terapia dirigida por guías, de enero de 2010 a abril de 2020, en un centro de tercer nivel. La respuesta a TRC fue definida como mejoría de la clase funcional de la New York Heart Association en al menos 1 categoría, asociado con una recuperación ≥ 5% en la fracción de expulsión del ventrículo izquierdo (FEVI). RESULTADOS: Incluimos a 102 pacientes, 61 (59.8%) fueron hombres. El promedio de edad al diagnóstico de IC fue 54 ± 18.7 años. La cardiopatía isquémica fue la etiología en 37 (36.3%) pacientes. 51 (50%) pacientes, fueron clasificados como respondedores. Los respondedores presentaron QRS amplio, menor FEVI y menor fracción de acortamiento del ventrículo derecho al inicio del estudio. Después de la TRC, los respondedores tuvieron una mayor reducción en la duración del QRS, mejoría en la FEVI, strain longitudinal global y parámetros de disincronía ecocardiográfica. El análisis de regresión multivariado mostró que el bloqueo de rama izquierdo (BRI), el volumen telediastólico del ventrículo izquierdo (VTDVI) la excursión sistólica del plano anular tricuspídeo (TAPSE) y la diferencia basal del período expulsivo fueron predictores de respuesta positiva a TRC. CONCLUSIONES: BRI, TAPSE, VTDVI y la diferencia basal de períodos preexpulsivos son variables independientes que predicen respuesta adecuada a TRC.

Response predictors to cardiac resynchronization therapy in chronic heart failure: a 10-year-cardiovascular center experience / Predictores de respuesta a la terapia de resincronización cardíaca en insuficiencia cardíaca crónica: 10 años de experiencia en un centro cardiovascular

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has been established as an effective therapy for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Randomized clinical trials have shown its impact on mortality and HF hospitalizations, as well as improvement of symptoms and quality of life. Objectives: Finding clinical, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic variables that may predict the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Methods: We performed a single-center, observational, analytic, and retrospective study that included 102 patients with heart failure (HF) diagnosis who underwent CRT according to guideline-directed therapy from January 2010 to April 2020 in a third-level center. CRT response was defined as an improvement of New York Heart Association functional class in at least 1 category associated with a recovery of ≥ 5% in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Results: Our study population was 102 patients of which 61 (59.8%) were men. The mean age at HF diagnosis was 54 ± 18.7 years. Ischemic heart disease was the etiology in 37 (36.3%) cases. Fifty-one (50%) patients were classified as responders. Responders had wider QRS, and lower LVEF and right ventricular fractional area change at baseline. After CRT, responders had a greater reduction of QRS duration, and improvement in LVEF, global longitudinal strain, and echocardiographic dyssynchrony parameters. Multivariate regression analysis showed that left bundle branch block (LBBB), left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and baseline difference of pre-ejection periods were predictors of a positive response to CRT in this population. Conclusions: LBBB, TAPSE, LVEDV, and pre-ejection time difference are independent variables that can predict adequate response to CRT.

Resumen Antecedentes: La terapia de resincronización cardíaca (TRC) se ha establecido como una terapia efectiva para la insuficiencia cardíaca con fracción de eyección reducida. Ensayos clínicos aleatorizados han demostrado su impacto en la mortalidad y hospitalizaciones por insuficiencia cardíaca, así como la mejora de los síntomas y la calidad de vida. Objetivos: Determinar las variables clínicas, electrocardiográficas y ecocardiográficas que puedan predecir la respuesta a la terapia de resincronización cardíaca (TRC). Método: Estudio unicéntrico, observacional, analítico, retrospectivo, que incluyó 102 pacientes con diagnóstico de IC sometidos a TRC y terapia dirigida por guías, de enero de 2010 a abril de 2020, en un centro de tercer nivel. La respuesta a TRC fue definida como mejoría de la clase funcional de la New York Heart Association en al menos 1 categoría, asociado con una recuperación ≥ 5% en la fracción de expulsión del ventrículo izquierdo (FEVI). Resultados: Incluimos a 102 pacientes, 61 (59.8%) fueron hombres. El promedio de edad al diagnóstico de IC fue 54 ± 18.7 años. La cardiopatía isquémica fue la etiología en 37 (36.3%) pacientes. 51 (50%) pacientes, fueron clasificados como respondedores. Los respondedores presentaron QRS amplio, menor FEVI y menor fracción de acortamiento del ventrículo derecho al inicio del estudio. Después de la TRC, los respondedores tuvieron una mayor reducción en la duración del QRS, mejoría en la FEVI, strain longitudinal global y parámetros de disincronía ecocardiográfica. El análisis de regresión multivariado mostró que el bloqueo de rama izquierdo (BRI), el volumen telediastólico del ventrículo izquierdo (VTDVI) la excursión sistólica del plano anular tricuspídeo (TAPSE) y la diferencia basal del período expulsivo fueron predictores de respuesta positiva a TRC. Conclusiones: BRI, TAPSE, VTDVI y la diferencia basal de períodos preexpulsivos son variables independientes que predicen respuesta adecuada a TRC.

Predictors of first-year postoperative complications after fixation of low-energy ankle fractures: A single-center, retrospective cohort study of 663 consecutive fractures. / [Artículo traducido] Predictores de las complicaciones postoperatorias en el primer año tras la fijación de fracturas de tobillo de baja energía. Estudio de cohortes retrospectivo sobre 663 fracturas intervenidas consecutivamente en un único centro.

INTRODUCTION: Rotational ankle fractures are common, have diverse personalities and affect both robust and fragile patients. Postoperative complications are frequent, creating a sizeable economic burden. The primary purpose of this study was to expand current knowledge on predictors of postoperative complications after low-energy ankle fracture fixation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective single-center cohort study was completed of patients undergoing internal fixation OF low-energy ankle fractures. The primary outcome was first-year postoperative complications, classified as major (surgical) or minor (non-surgical). Data on patients, their injuries, and treatments were collected. To identify potential predictors of outcomes, logistic regression methods were used, with a backward-stepwise method used for model fitting. RESULTS: In total, 663 patients of median age 59 years were analysed. We found a high rate of complications (28.4%), with wound-healing issues and infections predominant. Overall, 14.8% had minor complications, while 13.6% required an unplanned reoperation. On multivariable analysis, the most consistent predictors of complications were older age (OR: 1.02 per year), longer operating time (3.32 per hour), and smoking (2.91). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients and smokers who sustain fractures requiring more complex surgery are at higher risk of postoperative complications.

Determining factors on length of stay in primary total knee arthroplasty patients using enhanced recovery protocol after surgery (ERAS) pathway. / Factores determinantes de la duración de la estancia hospitalaria en pacientes operados de artroplastia primaria total de rodilla usando un protocolo de recuperación mejorada (ERAS).

INTRODUCTION: There is an increase in degenerative arthropathies because of the increase in the longevity of world's population, making primary knee arthroplasties a procedure to recover quality of life without pain. There are factors associated with the length of hospital stay after this procedure. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk factors influencing the hospital stay during the postoperative period of patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty with an enhanced recovery after surgery protocol (ERAS). METHODS: A retrospective study is carried out on patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty at an University Hospital in the period 2017-2020 using the ERAS protocol, during which 957 surgeries were performed. RESULTS: Average age of 71.7±8.2years, 62.4% were women and the 77.3% were classified as ASAII. The significantly associated factors to an increased length of stay are: age (P=.001), ASA scale (P=.04), day of surgery (P<.001), blood transfusion (P<.001), postoperative hemoglobin level at 48-72h (P<.001), the time of first postoperative mobilization to ambulate and climb stairs (P<.001), the need for analgesic rescues (P=.003), and the presence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (P=.008). CONCLUSIONS: There are statistically significant and clinically relevant factors associated with hospital stay. Determining these factors constitutes an advantage in hospital management, in the development of strategies to improve and optimize the quality of care and available health resources.

Predictors of mechanical ventilation and mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia / Predictores de ventilación mecánica y mortalidad en pacientes críticos con neumonía por COVID-19

Objective To determine if potential predictors for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are also determinants for mortality in COVID-19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (C-ARDS). Design Single center highly detailed longitudinal observational study. Setting Tertiary hospital ICU: two first COVID-19 pandemic waves, Madrid, Spain. Patients or participants : 280 patients with C-ARDS, not requiring IMV on admission. Interventions None. Main variables of interest : Target: endotracheal intubation and IMV, mortality. Predictors: demographics, hourly evolution of oxygenation, clinical data, and laboratory results. Results The time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the APACHE II score, the ROX index, and procalcitonin levels in blood were potential predictors related to both IMV and mortality. The ROX index was the most significant predictor associated with IMV, while APACHE II, LDH, and DaysSympICU were the most with mortality. Conclusions According to the results of the analysis, there are significant predictors linked with IMV and mortality in C-ARDS patients, including the time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the severity of the COVID-19 waves, and several clinical and laboratory measures. These findings may help clinicians to better identify patients at risk for IMV and mortality and improve their management. (AU)

Objetivo Determinar si las variables clínicas independientes que condicionan el inicio de ventilación mecánica invasiva (VMI) son los mismos que condicionan la mortalidad en el síndrome de distrés respiratorio agudo asociado con COVID-19 (C-SDRA). Diseño Estudio observacional longitudinal en un solo centro. Ámbito UCI, hospital terciario: primeras dos olas de COVID-19 en Madrid, España. Pacientes o participantes 280 pacientes con C-SDRA que no requieren VMI al ingreso en UCI. Intervenciones Ninguna. Principales variables de interés Objetivo: VMI y Mortalidad. Predictores: demográficos, variables clínicas, resultados de laboratorio y evolución de la oxigenación. Resultados El tiempo entre el inicio de los síntomas y el ingreso en la UCI, la puntuación APACHE II, el índice ROX y los niveles de procalcitonina en sangre eran posibles predictores relacionados tanto con la IMV como con la mortalidad. El índice ROX fue el predictor más significativo asociada con la IMV, mientras que APACHE II, LDH y DaysSympICU fueron los más influyentes en la mortalidad. Conclusiones Según los resultados obtenidos se identifican predictores significativos vinculados con la VMI y mortalidad en pacientes con C-ARDS, incluido el tiempo entre el inicio de los síntomas y el ingreso en la UCI, la gravedad de las olas de COVID-19 y varias medidas clínicas y de laboratorio. Estos hallazgos pueden ayudar a los médicos a identificar mejor a los pacientes en riesgo de IMV y mortalidad y mejorar su manejo. (AU)

Predictors of mechanical ventilation and mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if potential predictors for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are also determinants for mortality in COVID-19-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (C-ARDS). DESIGN: Single center highly detailed longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Tertiary hospital ICU: two first COVID-19 pandemic waves, Madrid, Spain. PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS: 280 patients with C-ARDS, not requiring IMV on admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Target: endotracheal intubation and IMV, mortality. PREDICTORS: demographics, hourly evolution of oxygenation, clinical data, and laboratory results. RESULTS: The time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the APACHE II score, the ROX index, and procalcitonin levels in blood were potential predictors related to both IMV and mortality. The ROX index was the most significant predictor associated with IMV, while APACHE II, LDH, and DaysSympICU were the most with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: According to the results of the analysis, there are significant predictors linked with IMV and mortality in C-ARDS patients, including the time between symptom onset and ICU admission, the severity of the COVID-19 waves, and several clinical and laboratory measures. These findings may help clinicians to better identify patients at risk for IMV and mortality and improve their management.

Predictors of first-year postoperative complications after fixation of low-energy ankle fractures: A single-center, retrospective cohort study of 663 consecutive fractures.

INTRODUCTION: Rotational ankle fractures are common, have diverse personalities and affect both robust and fragile patients. Postoperative complications are frequent, creating a sizeable economic burden. The primary purpose of this study was to expand current knowledge on predictors of postoperative complications after low-energy ankle fracture fixation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective single-center cohort study was completed of patients undergoing internal fixation OF low-energy ankle fractures. The primary outcome was first-year postoperative complications, classified as major (surgical) or minor (non-surgical). Data on patients, their injuries, and treatments were collected. To identify potential predictors of outcomes, logistic regression methods were used, with a backward-stepwise method used for model fitting. RESULTS: In total, 663 patients of median age 59 years were analyzed. We found a high rate of complications (28.4%), with wound-healing issues and infections predominant. Overall, 14.8% had minor complications, while 13.6% required an unplanned reoperation. On multivariable analysis, the most consistent predictors of complications were older age (OR=1.02 per year), longer operating time (3.32 per hour), and smoking (2.91). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients and smokers who sustain fractures requiring more complex surgery are at higher risk of postoperative complications.

Las apolipoproteínas como marcadores predictivos de riesgo metabólico-vascular en pediatría

Introducción: La búsqueda de nuevos marcadores predictivos, en la estratificación de riesgos metabólicos-vasculares, es de vital importancia en la prevención, diagnóstico y tratamiento oportuno de enfermedades cardiometabólicas, al considerar que el proceso aterosclerótico se inicia desde la infancia. La revisión documental se realizó entre marzo y julio del 2022, consultadas las bases de datos PubMed/Medline, SciElo, Scopus y el Google académico como puerta de entrada de la información sobre el tema. Se revisaron 33 artículos originales en el período 2012-2021 en idioma inglés y español, referenciados 29 y los términos clave para la búsqueda fueron, riesgo metabólico-vascular, apolipoproteínas A1 y B100, marcadores predictores de riesgo metabólico-vascular, niñez, adolescencia. Objetivo: Analizar la importancia de las apolipoproteínas como marcadores predictores del riesgo metabólico- vascular pediátrico. Desarrollo: Las apolipoproteínas han surgido como una alternativa muy viable, particularmente la determinación de ApoB 100 y ApoA 1, que expresan el equilibrio entre la actividad aterogénica y la antiaterogénica y están presentes desde las edades tempranas de la vida. El diagnóstico temprano de estos marcadores, permitirá aplicar intervenciones precoces para propiciar cambios a estilos de vidas saludables, así como tratamientos preventivos que impidan las complicaciones de la enfermedad cardiometabólica. Conclusiones: Al considerar que el proceso aterosclerótico se inicia en edades tempranas, las apolipoproteínas constituyen marcadores en la predicción del riesgo metabólico-vascular, su determinación permite la identificación, estratificación del riesgo y propuesta de estrategias preventivas desde las edades pediátricas.

Introduction: The search for new predictive markers, in the stratification of metabolic-vascular risks, is of vital importance in the prevention, diagnosis and timely treatment of cardiometabolic diseases, considering that the atherosclerotic process begins in childhood. The documentary review was carried out between March and July 2022, consulting the PubMed/Medline, SciElo, Scopus and Google Scholar databases as a gateway to information on the topic. 33 original articles were reviewed in the period 2012-2021 in English and Spanish, 29 were referenced and the key terms for the search were, metabolic-vascular risk, apolipoproteins A1 and B100, markers predictive of metabolic-vascular risk, childhood adolescence. Objective: To analyze the importance of apolipoproteins as predictive markers of pediatric metabolic-vascular risk. Development: Apolipoproteins have emerged as a very viable alternative, particularly the determination of ApoB 100 and ApoA 1, which express the balance between atherogenic and antiatherogenic activity and are present from the early ages of life. Early diagnosis of these markers will allow for early interventions to promote changes to healthy lifestyles, as well as preventive treatments that prevent complications of cardiometabolic disease. Conclusions: Considering that the atherosclerotic process begins at an early age, apolipoproteins constitute markers in the prediction of metabolic-vascular risk, their determination allows the identification, risk stratification and proposal of preventive strategies from pediatric ages.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the renal relapse of lupus nephritis / Desarrollo y validación de un nomograma pronóstico para la recaída renal de la nefritis lúpica

Objectives This study aims to assess the risk of relapse after complete remission (CR) and partial remission (PR), and to develop a prognostic nomogram predicting the probability in lupus nephritis (LN) patients. Methods Data from patients with LN who had been in remission were collected as a training cohort. The prognostic factors were analyzed using the univariable and multivariable Cox model for the training group. A nomogram was then developed using significant predictors in multivariable analysis. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 100 resamples. Results A total of 247 participants were enrolled, including 108 in the relapse group and 139 in the no relapse group. In multivariate Cox analysis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), complement 1q (C1q), and antiphospholipid (aPL), anti-Sm antibody were found to be significant for predicting relapse rates. The prognostic nomogram including the aforementioned factors effectively predicted 1- and 3-year probability of flare-free. Moreover, a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities was demonstrated using calibration curves. Conclusions High SLEDAI, ESR, and positive aPL, anti-Sm antibody are potential risk factors for LN flare, while high C1q can reduce its recurrence. The visualized model we established can help predict the relapse risk of LN and aid clinical decision-making for individual patients (AU)

Objetivos Este estudio pretende evaluar el riesgo de recaída tras la remisión completa y la remisión parcial, y desarrollar un nomograma pronóstico que prediga la probabilidad en pacientes con nefritis lúpica (NL). Métodos Se recogieron datos de pacientes con NL que habían estado en remisión como cohorte de entrenamiento. Se analizaron los factores pronósticos utilizando el modelo COX univariable y multivariable para el grupo de entrenamiento. A continuación se desarrolló un nomograma utilizando los predictores significativos en el análisis multivariable. Tanto la discriminación como la calibración se evaluaron mediante bootstrapping con 100 remuestreos. Resultados Se inscribió a un total de 247 participantes, incluidos 108 en el grupo de recaída y 139 en el grupo sin recaída. En el análisis multivariante de Cox, el índice de actividad de la enfermedad lúpica eritematosa sistémica (SLEDAI), la velocidad de sedimentación globular (VSG), el complemento 1q (C1q) y los anticuerpos antifosfolípidos (aPL) y anti-Sm resultaron significativos para predecir las tasas de recaída. El nomograma pronóstico que incluía los factores mencionados predijo eficazmente la probabilidad a 1 y a 3 años de estar libre de reagudizaciones. Además, se demostró una coherencia favorable entre las probabilidades de supervivencia previstas y las reales mediante curvas de calibración. Conclusiones SLEDAI alto, VSG y aPL positivo, anticuerpos anti-Sm son factores de riesgo potenciales de reagudización de la NL, mientras que C1q alto puede reducir su recurrencia. El modelo visualizado que establecimos puede ayudar a predecir el riesgo de recidiva de la NL y ayudar a la toma de decisiones clínicas para pacientes individuales (AU)

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the renal relapse of lupus nephritis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess the risk of relapse after complete remission (CR) and partial remission (PR), and to develop a prognostic nomogram predicting the probability in lupus nephritis (LN) patients. METHODS: Data from patients with LN who had been in remission were collected as a training cohort. The prognostic factors were analyzed using the univariable and multivariable Cox model for the training group. A nomogram was then developed using significant predictors in multivariable analysis. Both discrimination and calibration were assessed by bootstrapping with 100 resamples. RESULTS: A total of 247 participants were enrolled, including 108 in the relapse group and 139 in the no relapse group. In multivariate Cox analysis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), complement 1q (C1q), and antiphospholipid (aPL), anti-Sm antibody were found to be significant for predicting relapse rates. The prognostic nomogram including the aforementioned factors effectively predicted 1- and 3-year probability of flare-free. Moreover, a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual survival probabilities was demonstrated using calibration curves. CONCLUSIONS: High SLEDAI, ESR, and positive aPL, anti-Sm antibody are potential risk factors for LN flare, while high C1q can reduce its recurrence. The visualized model we established can help predict the relapse risk of LN and aid clinical decision-making for individual patients.

Improvement of left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: Predictors and clinical impact / Impacto clínico a medio plazo de la mejoría de la fracción de eyección ventricular izquierda en pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca con fracción de eyección reducida

Background A percentage of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) improve left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the evolution. This entity, defined for the first time in an international consensus as heart failure with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF), could have a different clinical profile and prognosis than HFrEF. Our main aim was to analyze the differential clinical profile between the two entities, as well as the mid-term prognosis. Material-methods Prospective study of a cohort of patients with HFrEF who had echocardiographic data at baseline and follow-up. A comparative analysis of patients who improved LVEF with those who did not was made. Clinical, echocardiographic and therapeutic variables were analyzed, and the mid-term impact in terms of mortality and hospital readmissions for HF was assessed. Results Ninety patients were analyzed. Mean age was 66.5(10.4) years, with a male predominance (72.2%). Forty five patients (50%) improved LVEF (Group-1,HFimpEF) and forty five patients (50%) sustained reduced LVEF (Group-2,HFsrEF). The mean time to LVEF improvement in Group-1 was 12.6(5.7) months. Group-1 had a more favorable clinical profile: lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, higher prevalence of de novo HF (75.6% vs. 42.2%; p<0.05), lower prevalence of ischemic etiology (22.2% vs. 42.2%; p<0.05), with less basal dilatation of the left ventricle. At the end of follow-up (mean 19(1) months) Group-1 had a lower hospital readmission rate (3.1% vs. 26.7%; p<0.01), as well as lower mortality (0% vs. 24.4%; p<0.01). Conclusion Patients with HFimpEF seem to have a better mid-term prognosis in terms of reduced mortality and hospital admissions. This improvement could be conditioned by the clinical profile of patients HFimpEF (AU)

Introducción Un porcentaje de pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca y fracción de eyección reducida (IC-FEr) mejoran la fracción de eyección ventricular izquierda (FEVI) en la evolución. Esta entidad se ha definido por primera vez en un consenso internacional como insuficiencia cardiaca y fracción de eyección mejorada (IC-FEm), y podría tener un perfil y pronóstico diferente que IC-FEr. Nuestro objetivo fue analizar el perfil de ambas entidades y su pronóstico a medio plazo. Material y métodos Estudio prospective de una cohorte de pacientes con IC-FEr que tenían datos ecocardiográficos basales y en el seguimiento. Se hizo un análisis comparativo de pacientes con IC-FEm y pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca y IC-FEpr. Se analizaron variables clínicas, ecocardiográficas y de tratamiento; el impacto clínico a medio plazo se analizó en términos de mortalidad y reingresos hospitalarios por insuficiencia cardiaca. Resultados Se analizaron 90 pacientes, edad media 66,5 (10,4) años (72,2% mujeres). La mitad de los pacientes mejoraron su FEVI, con un tiempo medio hasta la mejoría de 12,6 (5,7) meses. El grupo IC-FEm tenía un perfil clínico más favorable: menor proporción de factores de riesgo cardiovascular, prevalencia más elevada de IC-novo (75,6 vs. 42,2%; p < 0,05), y menor proporción de isquemia (22,2 vs. 42.2%; p < 0,05). Los pacientes con IC-FEm en el seguimiento a medio plazo tenían menor tasa de reingresos (3,1 vs. 26,7%; p < 0,01), y mortalidad (0 vs. 24,4%; p < 0,01). Conclusión Pacientes con IC-FEm parecen tener un mejor pronóstico en términos de mortalidad y reingresos hospitalarios por insuficiencia cardiaca (IC). Esta mejoría clínica podría estar condicionada por el perfil de los pacientes con IC-FEm (AU)

Parent-led stepped care for traumatised children: parental factors that predict treatment completion and response.

Background: Stepped care cognitive behavioural therapy for children after trauma (SC-CBT-CT; aged 7-12 years) can help to increase access to evidence-based trauma treatments for children. SC-CBT-CT consists of a parent-led therapist-assisted component (Step One) with an option to step up to standard therapist-led treatment (Step Two). Studies have shown that SC-CBT-CT is effective; however, less is known about what parent variables are associated with outcome of Step One.Objective: To examine parent factors and their relationship with completion and response among children receiving Step One.Method: Children (n = 82) aged 7-12 (M = 9.91) received Step One delivered by their parents (n = 82) under the guidance of SC-CBT-CT therapists. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate whether the following factors were associated with non-completion or non-response: the parents' sociodemographic variables, anxiety and depression, stressful life experiences and post-traumatic symptoms, negative emotional reactions to their children's trauma, parenting stress, lower perceived social support, and practical barriers to treatment at baseline.Results: Lower level of educational achievement among parents was related to non-completion. Higher levels of emotional reactions to their child's trauma and greater perceived social support were related to non-response.Conclusions: The children seemed to profit from the parent-led Step One despite their parents` mental health challenges, stress, and practical barriers. The association between greater perceived social support and non-response was unexpected and warrants further investigation. To further increase treatment completion and response rates among children, parents with lower education may need more assistance on how to perform the interventions, while parents who are very upset about their child's trauma may need more emotional support and assurance from the therapist.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04073862; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04073862. Retrospectively registered 03 June 2019 (first patient recruited May 2019).

The children seemed to profit from Step One despite parents' mental health challenges and practical barriers.Response may improve if parents' emotional reactions to a child's trauma is addressed.Parents with lower education may need more assistance in performing Step One.

Improvement of left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: Predictors and clinical impact.

BACKGROUND: A percentage of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) improve left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the evolution. This entity, defined for the first time in an international consensus as heart failure with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF), could have a different clinical profile and prognosis than HFrEF. Our main aim was to analyze the differential clinical profile between the two entities, as well as the mid-term prognosis. MATERIAL-METHODS: Prospective study of a cohort of patients with HFrEF who had echocardiographic data at baseline and follow-up. A comparative analysis of patients who improved LVEF with those who did not was made. Clinical, echocardiographic and therapeutic variables were analyzed, and the mid-term impact in terms of mortality and hospital readmissions for HF was assessed. RESULTS: Ninety patients were analyzed. Mean age was 66.5(10.4) years, with a male predominance (72.2%). Forty five patients (50%) improved LVEF (Group-1,HFimpEF) and forty five patients (50%) sustained reduced LVEF (Group-2,HFsrEF). The mean time to LVEF improvement in Group-1 was 12.6(5.7) months. Group-1 had a more favorable clinical profile: lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, higher prevalence of de novo HF (75.6% vs. 42.2%; p<0.05), lower prevalence of ischemic etiology (22.2% vs. 42.2%; p<0.05), with less basal dilatation of the left ventricle. At the end of follow-up (mean 19(1) months) Group-1 had a lower hospital readmission rate (3.1% vs. 26.7%; p<0.01), as well as lower mortality (0% vs. 24.4%; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Patients with HFimpEF seem to have a better mid-term prognosis in terms of reduced mortality and hospital admissions. This improvement could be conditioned by the clinical profile of patients HFimpEF.

Factores predictores de resultado en tratamiento de tabaquismo en población de adultos mayores de la Comunidad Valenciana / Predictors of smoking treatment outcome in a population of older adults in the Valencian Community

El consumo de tabaco es uno de los más importantes factores de riesgo de enfermedad y muerte en España. Por ello, el objetivo de este estudio fue investigar las características epidemiológicas de 239pacientes fumadores mayores de 50 años en una unidad hospitalaria de deshabituación de tabaco, así como analizar los principales factores predictores que pueden influir en sus intentos de cese a losdoce meses. Es un estudio analítico transversal con tratamiento multicomponente combinando terapia psicológica e intervención farmacológica. Para comparar el éxito de abandono de los pacientes yconocer los posibles factores predictores, se llevó a cabo un análisis multivariante y de regresión logística binaria. De todos los pacientes, el 49,7% estableció el día D y la tasa de abandono final fue de 41,4%. Los predictores de intentos de abandono significativos fueron: índice paquetes-año entre 30 y 60, valor de cooximetría ≤ 10ppm, con una o más veces de intentos previos, tiempo máximo de cese superior a tres meses y grado alto en el test de Richmond. La escala de Minnesota con un valor inferior a 5 puntos fue el único predictor de abstinencia puntual a los doce meses. Los pacientes que consumieron menos tabaco y manifestaron intentos previos y alto grado de motivación tuvieron mayor posibilidad de tomar la decisión con éxito para dejar de fumar. Además, controlar el síndrome de abstinencia fue el aspecto más importante para tratar y reducir la tasa de recaída. (AU)

Tobacco consumption is one of the most important risk factors for disease and death in Spain. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of 239 smoking patients over 50 years of age in a hospital smoking cessation unit, as well as to analyse the main predictors that may influence their cessation attempts at 12 months. It is a cross-sectional analytical study with multicomponent treatment combining psychological therapy and pharmacological intervention. A multivariate and binary logistic regression analysis was carried out to compare patients’ cessation success and to identify possible predictors. Of all patients, 49.7% established D-day and the final quit rate was 41.4%. Significant predictors of quit attempts were: pack-year index between 30 and 60, cooximetry value ≤ 10ppm, with one or more times of previous attempts, maximum cessation time greater than three months and high grade on the Richmond test. The Minnesota scale with a value of less than 5 points was the only predictor of timely abstinence at 12 months. Patients who used less tobacco and reported previous attempts and high motivation were more likely to make a successful decision to quit smoking. In addition, controlling the withdrawal syndrome was the most important aspect to treat and reduce the relapse rate. (AU)

Predictors and moderators of treatment outcomes in phase-based treatment and trauma-focused treatments in patients with childhood abuse-related post-traumatic stress disorder.

Background: Knowledge of treatment predictors and moderators is important for improving the effectiveness of treatment for PTSD due to childhood abuse.Objective: The first aim of this study was to test the potential predictive value of variables commonly associated with PTSD resulting from a history of repeated childhood abuse, in relation to treatment outcomes. The second aim was to examine if complex PTSD symptoms act as potential moderators between treatment conditions and outcomes.Method: Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial comparing a phase-based treatment (Skills Training in Affect and Interpersonal Regulation [STAIR] followed by Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing [EMDR] therapy; n = 57) with a direct trauma-focused treatment (EMDR therapy only; n = 64) in people with PTSD due to childhood abuse. The possible predictive effects of the presence of borderline personality disorder, dissociative symptoms, and suicidal and self-injurious behaviours were examined. In addition, it was determined whether symptoms of emotion regulation difficulties, self-esteem, and interpersonal problems moderated the relation between the treatment condition and PTSD post-treatment, corrected for pre-treatment PTSD severity.Results: Pre-treatment PTSD severity proved to be a significant predictor of less profitable PTSD treatment outcomes. The same was true for the severity of dissociative symptoms, but only post-treatment, and not when corrected for false positives. Complex PTSD symptoms did not moderate the relationship between the treatment conditions and PTSD treatment outcomes.Conclusions: The current findings suggest that regardless of the common comorbid symptoms studied, immediate trauma-focused treatment is a safe and effective option for individuals with childhood-related PTSD. However, individuals experiencing severe symptoms of PTSD may benefit from additional treatment sessions or the addition of other evidence-based PTSD treatment approaches. The predictive influence of dissociative sequelae needs further research.The study design was registered in The Dutch trial register (https://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC = 5991) NTR5991 and was approved by the medical ethics committee of Twente NL 56641.044.16 CCMO.

One of first studies that aimed to identify multiple potential predictors and moderators in patients with PTSD related to childhood abuse.Only severe PTSD predicted worse treatment outcomes.The predictive influence of dissociative sequelae needs further research.

Relación del supradesnivel del segmento ST en aVR con las complicaciones cardiovasculares / Relationship of ST-segment elevation in AVR to cardiovascular complications

Introducción: El patrón de supradesnivel del segmento ST en aVR en el síndrome coronario agudo se asocia con un aumento de la mortalidad. Objetivo: Evaluar la relación entre el patrón de supradesnivel del segmento ST en aVR y las complicaciones cardiovasculares no letales. Método: Estudio observacional de corte transversal, con componente analítico de todos los pacientes ingresados con síndrome coronario agudo sin elevación del segmento ST, en el Hospital Universitario Manuel Fajardo de la Habana entre los años 2016 y 2020. Resultados: Predominó el sexo femenino en el primer grupo, con una mediana de 78 años. Hubo incidencia de cardiopatía isquémica (75 por ciento y 56,4 por ciento) e hipertensión arterial (78,8 por ciento y 85,8 por ciento ). Se determinó una relación estadística significativa entre el patrón con elevación del segmento ST en aVR y las complicaciones cardiovasculares con un riesgo relativo de 5,769 veces. Conclusiones: El patrón de supradesnivel del segmento ST en un síndrome coronario agudo sin elevación del segmento ST predice complicaciones intrahospitalarias cardiovasculares no letales(AU)

Introduction: The pattern of ST-segment elevation in aVR in acute coronary syndrome is associated with increased mortality. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between the pattern of ST-segment elevation in aVR and nonlethal cardiovascular complications. Methods: Observational cross-sectional study, with analytical component of all patients admitted with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome at the Manuel Fajardo University Hospital of Havana between 2016 and 2020. Results: Female gender predominated in the first group, with an average age of 78 years. There was incidence of ischemic heart disease (75 percent and 56.4 percent) and arterial hypertension (78.8 percent and 85.8 percent). A significant statistical relationship was determined between the pattern with ST-segment elevation in aVR and cardiovascular complications with a relative risk of 5.769 times. Conclusions: ST-segment suprathreshold pattern in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome predicts non-lethal in-hospital cardiovascular complications(AU)

Predictores de muerte materna en pacientes gestantes / Predictors of maternal death in pregnant patients

El objetivo de este artículo fue realizar una revisión de los predictores de mortalidad en pacientes gestantes y puérperas con infección COVID19 o sospecha de la misma, mediante score de predicción para contribuir con la difusión del conocimiento sobre la evolución clínica de la COVID19 .La búsqueda bibliográfica en las bases de datos bibliográficas, reflejó la utilidad del uso de predictores en logística como herramientas para el análisis de datos en investigación clínica y epidemiológica, para la evaluación médica y evitar el peor desenlace, que se relaciona indudablemente, a determinantes en salud. Agrupadas a las causas directas de muerte materna. Junto a los factores geográficos y la falta de un sistema de transporte eficiente plantean grandes dificultades para buscar una atención adecuada y oportuna en los países en vías de desarrollo.

The objective of this article was to carry out a review of the predictors of mortality in pregnant and postpartum patients with COVID19 infection or suspicion thereof, using a prediction score to contribute to the dissemination of knowledge about the clinical evolution of COVID19. The bibliographic search in the bibliographic databases reflected the usefulness of the use of logistic predictors as tools for data analysis in clinical and epidemiological research, for medical evaluation and avoiding the worst outcome, which is undoubtedly related to determinants in health. Grouped to the direct causes of maternal death. Together with geographical factors and the lack of an efficient transportation system, they pose great difficulties in seeking adequate and timely care in developing countries.