Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon / Comportamento da produção e dos preços de bovinos de corte na Amazônia Brasileira

This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.

O artigo avalia o comportamento da produção e dos preços no mercado da pecuária de corte da Amazônia brasileira. Utilizaram-se dados de séries temporais obtidos em diversas fontes e submetidos às análises de regressão múltipla e regressão polinomial. Para a análise de preços utilizou-se o modelo clássico de séries temporais com a separação dos índices sazonais e cíclicos com base na média móvel centrada em doze meses. As análises abrangem o período de 1990 a 2015, fase em que o rebanho bovino regional evoluiu a uma taxa de 5% ao ano, frente a um crescimento de 1,7% do rebanho nacional. A análise de preços revelou a existência de ciclos na pecuária bovina regional, definidos, principalmente, pela correlação inversa entre o preço do boi gordo e o abate de matrizes. Quanto às análises das variáveis determinantes do crescimento da produção, configurado na expansão do rebanho, constatou-se que a política de crédito rural assumiu papel importante ao viabilizar a oferta de recursos para o financiamento de projetos pecuários que ganharam espaço frente aos investimentos em agricultura. A criação e estruturação das agências estaduais de defesa agropecuária, a partir do final da década de 1990, representou avanço importante na esfera institucional, pois ao executarem as políticas e programas de sanidade animal tem gerado um ambiente favorável para a expansão dos investimentos na produção e processamento, além de abrir oportunidades para comercialização no mercado interno, nacional e internacional.

Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon / Comportamento da produção e dos preços de bovinos de corte na Amazônia Brasileira

This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.(AU)

O artigo avalia o comportamento da produção e dos preços no mercado da pecuária de corte da Amazônia brasileira. Utilizaram-se dados de séries temporais obtidos em diversas fontes e submetidos às análises de regressão múltipla e regressão polinomial. Para a análise de preços utilizou-se o modelo clássico de séries temporais com a separação dos índices sazonais e cíclicos com base na média móvel centrada em doze meses. As análises abrangem o período de 1990 a 2015, fase em que o rebanho bovino regional evoluiu a uma taxa de 5% ao ano, frente a um crescimento de 1,7% do rebanho nacional. A análise de preços revelou a existência de ciclos na pecuária bovina regional, definidos, principalmente, pela correlação inversa entre o preço do boi gordo e o abate de matrizes. Quanto às análises das variáveis determinantes do crescimento da produção, configurado na expansão do rebanho, constatou-se que a política de crédito rural assumiu papel importante ao viabilizar a oferta de recursos para o financiamento de projetos pecuários que ganharam espaço frente aos investimentos em agricultura. A criação e estruturação das agências estaduais de defesa agropecuária, a partir do final da década de 1990, representou avanço importante na esfera institucional, pois ao executarem as políticas e programas de sanidade animal tem gerado um ambiente favorável para a expansão dos investimentos na produção e processamento, além de abrir oportunidades para comercialização no mercado interno, nacional e internacional.(AU)

Fish and fishery products trade in Brazil, 2005 to 2015: A review of available data and trends

ABSTRACT: Along the last ten years fish and fishery product trade in Brazil has been on a downward trajectory turning a profit of US$ 98.6 million in 2005 into a loss of US$ 1.25 billion by 2014. On the other hand, the country is a leading producer of grains and has the third largest animal feed industry in the world, which has added 5.5 million hectares of freshwater reservoirs and 3.5 million km2 of an exclusive marine economic zone in the same period, a sizable potential for development of the aquaculture industry. This study aims at unveiling strategies for the reduction of the deficit in the Brazilian seafood trade balance, based on critical analysis of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of imported fishery products. The fish and fishery product trade in Brazil, from 2005 to 2015, was studied considering import and export data mined from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce databases through the Aliceweb system, and clustered as follows: processing; product species; origin; conservation; and group. The main imported products were gutted fresh fish, highest price (salmon); salted dried fish, higher price (cod); frozen fish fillets, lowest price (fish and hake). The replacement of fish imports by domestic production is not enough to enable consumers to identify the equivalence between products (technical, qualitative or organoleptic). Developing strategies for the production of fish and fishery products at competitive prices and quantities that meet consumer demand is an immediate need, and the development of the aquaculture industry a rational strategy.

Fish and fishery products trade in Brazil, 2005 to 2015: A review of available data and trends

ABSTRACT: Along the last ten years fish and fishery product trade in Brazil has been on a downward trajectory turning a profit of US$ 98.6 million in 2005 into a loss of US$ 1.25 billion by 2014. On the other hand, the country is a leading producer of grains and has the third largest animal feed industry in the world, which has added 5.5 million hectares of freshwater reservoirs and 3.5 million km2 of an exclusive marine economic zone in the same period, a sizable potential for development of the aquaculture industry. This study aims at unveiling strategies for the reduction of the deficit in the Brazilian seafood trade balance, based on critical analysis of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of imported fishery products. The fish and fishery product trade in Brazil, from 2005 to 2015, was studied considering import and export data mined from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce databases through the Aliceweb system, and clustered as follows: processing; product species; origin; conservation; and group. The main imported products were gutted fresh fish, highest price (salmon); salted dried fish, higher price (cod); frozen fish fillets, lowest price (fish and hake). The replacement of fish imports by domestic production is not enough to enable consumers to identify the equivalence between products (technical, qualitative or organoleptic). Developing strategies for the production of fish and fishery products at competitive prices and quantities that meet consumer demand is an immediate need, and the development of the aquaculture industry a rational strategy.(AU)