Altitude characteristics in the response of rain-on-snow flood risk to future climate change in a high-latitude water tower.

Global warming is profoundly impacting snowmelt runoff processes in seasonal freeze-thaw zones, thereby altering the risk of rain-on-snow (ROS) floods. These changes not only affect the frequency of floods but also alter the allocation of water resources, which has implications for agriculture and other key economic sectors. While these risks present a significant threat to our lives and economies, the risk of ROS floods triggered by climate change has not received the attention it deserves. Therefore, we chose Changbai Mountain, a water tower in a high-latitude cold zone, as a typical study area. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT is coupled with CMIP6 meteorological data, and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) are selected after bias correction, thus quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Changbai Mountain region as well as future evolution of the ROS flood risk. The results indicate that: (1) Under future climate change scenarios, snowmelt in most areas of the Changbai Mountains decreases. The annual average snowmelt under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 is projected to be 148.65 mm, 135.63 mm, 123.44 mm, and 116.5 mm, respectively. The onset of snowmelt is projected to advance in the future. Specifically, in the Songhua River (SR) and Yalu River (YR) regions, the start of snowmelt is expected to advance by 1-11 days. Spatially, significant reductions in snowmelt were observed in both the central part of the watershed and the lower reaches of the river under SSP585 scenario. (2) In 2021-2060, the frequency of ROS floods decreases sequentially for different scenarios, with SSP 126 > SSP 245 > SSP 370 > SSP 585. The frequency increments of ROS floods in the source area for the four scenarios were 0.12 days/year, 0.1 d/yr, 0.13 days/year, and 0.15 days/year, respectively. The frequency of high-elevation ROS events increases in the YR in the low emission scenario. Conversely, in high emission scenarios, YR high-elevation ROS events will only increase in 2061-2100. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the Tumen River (TR), where floods become more frequent with increasing elevation.

A methodological framework for assessing sea level rise impacts on nitrate loading in coastal agricultural watersheds using SWAT+: A case study of the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina, USA.

This study addresses the urgent need to understand the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems by demonstrating how to use the SWAT+ model to assess the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on agricultural nitrate export in a coastal watershed. Our framework for incorporating SLR in the SWAT+ model includes: (1) reclassifying current land uses to water for areas with elevations below 0.3 m based on SLR projections for mid-century; (2) creating new SLR-influenced land uses, SLR-influenced crop database, and hydrological response units for areas with elevations below 2.4 m; and (3) adjusting SWAT+ parameters for the SLR-influenced areas to simulate the effects of saltwater intrusion on processes such as plant yield and denitrification. We demonstrate this approach in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, a coastal watershed in eastern North Carolina, USA. We calibrated the model for monthly nitrate load at Washington, NC, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.61. Our findings show that SLR substantially alters nitrate delivery to the estuary, with increased nitrate loads observed in all seasons. Higher load increases were noted in winter and spring due to elevated flows, while higher percentage increases occurred in summer and fall, attributed to reduced plant uptake and disrupted nitrogen cycle transformations. Overall, we observed an increase in mean annual nitrate loads from 155,000 kg NO3-N under baseline conditions to 157,000 kg NO3-N under SLR scenarios, confirmed by a statistically significant paired t-test (p = 2.16 × 10-10). This pioneering framework sets the stage for more sophisticated and accurate modeling of SLR impacts in diverse hydrological scenarios, offering a vital tool for hydrological modelers.

A hybrid approach to improvement of watershed water quality modeling by coupling process-based and deep learning models.

Watershed water quality modeling to predict changing water quality is an essential tool for devising effective management strategies within watersheds. Process-based models (PBMs) are typically used to simulate water quality modeling. In watershed modeling utilizing PBMs, it is crucial to effectively reflect the actual watershed conditions by appropriately setting the model parameters. However, parameter calibration and validation are time-consuming processes with inherent uncertainties. Addressing these challenges, this research aims to address various challenges encountered in the calibration and validation processes of PBMs. To achieve this, the development of a hybrid model, combining uncalibrated PBMs with data-driven models (DDMs) such as deep learning algorithms is proposed. This hybrid model is intended to enhance watershed modeling by integrating the strengths of both PBMs and DDMs. The hybrid model is constructed by coupling an uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). SWAT, a representative PBM, is constructed using geographical information and 5-year observed data from the Yeongsan River Watershed. The output variables of the uncalibrated SWAT, such as streamflow, suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP), as well as observed precipitation for the day and previous day, are used as training data for the deep learning model to predict the TP load. For the comparison, the conventional SWAT model is calibrated and validated to predict the TP load. The results revealed that TP load simulated by the hybrid model predicted the observed TP better than that predicted by the calibrated SWAT model. Also, the hybrid model reflects seasonal variations in the TP load, including peak events. Remarkably, when applied to other sub-basins without specific training, the hybrid model consistently outperformed the calibrated SWAT model. In conclusion, application of the SWAT-LSTM hybrid model could be a useful tool for decreasing uncertainties in model calibration and improving the overall predictive performance in watershed modeling. PRACTITIONER POINTS: We aimed to enhance process-based models for watershed water-quality modeling. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Long Short-Term Memory hybrid model's predicted and total phosphorus (TP) matched the observed TP. It exhibited superior predictive performance when applied to other sub-basins. The hybrid model will overcome the constraints of conventional modeling. It will also enable more effective and efficient modeling.

Improving hydrological modeling to close the gap between elevated CO2 concentration and crop response: Implications for water resources.

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) affect crop growth and the associated hydrological cycle through physiological forcing, which is mainly regulated by reducing stomatal conductance (gs) and increasing leaf area index (LAI). However, reduced gs and increased LAI can affect crop water consumption, and the overall effects need to be quantified under elevated [CO2]. Here we develop a SWAT-gs-LAI model by incorporating a nonlinear gs-CO2 equation and a missing LAI-CO2 relationship to investigate the responses of water consumption of grain maize, maize yield, and losses of water and soil to elevated [CO2] in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB; 492,000 km2). Results exhibited enhanced maize yield with decreased water consumption for increases in [CO2] from 495 ppm to 825 ppm during the historical period (1985-2014). Elevated [CO2] promoted surface runoff but suppressed sediment loss as the predominant impact of LAI-CO2 leading to enhanced surface cover. A comprehensive analysis of future climate change showed increased maize water consumption in comparison to the historical period, driven by the more pronounced effects of overall climate change rather than solely elevated [CO2]. Generally, future climate change promoted maize yield in most regions of the UMRB for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Surface runoff was shown to increase generally in the future with sediment loss increasing by an average of 0.39, 0.42, and 0.66 ton ha-1 for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. This was due to negative climatic change effects largely surpassing the positive effect of elevated [CO2], particularly in zones near the middle and lower stream. Our results underscore the crucial role of employing a physically-based model to represent crop physiological processes under elevated [CO2] conditions, improving the reliability of predictions related to crop growth and the hydrological cycle.

Response of hydrology and nutrient losses to different extreme rainfall conditions in a coastal watershed influenced by orchards.

Global warming is altering the frequency of extreme rainfall events and introducing uncertainties for non-point source pollution (NPSP). This research centers on orchard-influenced planting areas (OIPA) in the Wulong River Watershed of Shandong Province, China, which are known for their heightened nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution. Leveraging meteorological data from both historical (1989-2018) and projected future periods (2041-2100), this research identified five extreme rainfall indices (ERI): R10 (moderate rain), R20 (heavy rain), R50 (rainstorm), R95p (Daily rainfall between the 95th and 99th percentile of the rainfall), and R99p (>99th percentile). Utilizing an advanced watershed hydrological model, SWAT-CO2, this study carried out a comparison between ERI and average conditions and evaluated the effects of ERI on the hydrology and nutrient losses in this coastal watershed. The findings revealed that the growth multiples of precipitation in the OIPA for five ERI varied between 16 and 59 times for the historical period and 14 to 65 times for future climate scenarios compared to the average conditions. The most pronounced increases in surface runoff and total phosphorus (TP) loss were observed with R50, R95p, and R99p, showing growth multiples as high as 352 and 330 times, and total nitrogen (TN) growth multiples varied between 4.6 and 30.3 times. The contribution rates of R50 and R99p for surface runoff and TP loss in the OIPA during all periods exceeded 55%, however, TN exhibited the opposite trend, primarily due to the dominated NO3-N leaching in the sandy soil. This research revealed how the OIPA reacts to different ERI and pinpointed essential elements influencing water and nutrient losses.

A deep learning-based model for estimating pollution fluxes from rivers into the sea and its optimization.

Pollution fluxes from rivers into the sea are currently the main source of pollutants in nearshore areas. Based on the source-sink process of the basin-estuary-coastal waters system, the pollution fluxes into the sea and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity were estimated. A deep learning-based model was established to simplify the estimation of pollution fluxes into the sea, with socio-economic drivers and meteorological data as input variables. A method for estimating the contribution rate of pollution fluxes from different spatial gradient was proposed. In this study, we found that (1) the pollution fluxes into the sea of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from the Bohai Sea Rim Basin (BSRB) in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 25.38 × 104, 26.12 × 104, 27.27 × 104, 29.82 × 104, 25.31 × 104 and 1.32 × 104, 2.14 × 104, 2.09 × 104, 1.87 × 104, 1.68 × 104 tons, respectively. (2) The proportion of rural life and livestock to the TN was the highest, accounting for 39.18 % and 21.19 %, respectively. The proportion of livestock to the TP was the highest, accounting for 39.20 %, followed by rural life, accounting for 24.72 %. The results indicated that the pollution fluxes in the BSRB were related to human economic activities and relevant environmental protection measures. (3) The deep learning-based model established to estimate runoff pollution fluxes into the sea had the accuracy of over 90 %. (4) As for contribution rate, in terms of the elevation, the range of 0-100 m had the highest proportion, accounting for 39.65 %. The range of 50-100 km from the coastline had the highest proportion, accounting for 18.11 %. In terms of the district, coastal area has the highest proportion, accounting for 38.00 %. This study revealed the changing trends and driving mechanisms of pollution fluxes into the sea over the past 40 years and established a simplified deep learning-based model for estimating pollution fluxes into the sea. Then, we identified regions with high pollution contribution rate. The results can provide scientific references for the adaptive management of the nearshore areas based on the ecosystem.

Spatiotemporal evolution of runoff and sediment and their dominant driving factors in the Lower Jinsha River basin.

The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) contributes a significant amount of sediment to the Yangtze River; however, an imbalance exists between runoff and sediment. The underlying mechanisms and primary factors driving this imbalance remain unclear. In this study, the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) and Geographical Detector Model (GDM) were employed to quantify the importance of the driving factors for water yield (WYLD) and sediment yield (SYLD) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in the JRB. The results indicated that the SWAT model performed well in simulating runoff and sediment, with R2 > 0.61 and NSE > 0.5. Based on the simulated data, SYLD exhibited strong spatiotemporal linkages with WYLD. Temporally, both sediment and runoff showed decreasing trends, with the sediment decrease being more pronounced. Spatially, WYLD and SYLD displayed similar distribution patterns, with low values in the southwest and high values in the northeast. By quantifying the driving factors, we found that climatic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were the main influencing factors for WYLD and SYLD across the entire region, though their contributions to the two variables differed. For WYLD, climatic factors accounted for 70 % of the total influencing factors, whereas their contribution to SYLD was 50 %. Furthermore, soil type and land-use type played significant roles in the SYLD, with importance values of 16 % and 12 %, respectively. Under the influence of surface conditions, the proportion of SYLD in the JRB to the total SYLD in the Yangtze River Basin was greater than that of WYLD. The findings of this study provide scientific evidence and technical support for local environmental impact assessments and the formulation of soil and water conservation plans.

Evaluation of fish habitat suitability based on stream hydrodynamics and water quality using SWAT and HEC-RAS linked simulation.

The objective of this study was to evaluate fish habitat suitability by simulating hydrodynamic and water quality factors using SWAT and HEC-RAS linked simulation considering time-series analysis. A 2.9 km reach of the Bokha stream was selected for the habitat evaluation of Zacco platypus, with hydrodynamic and water quality simulations performed using the SWAT and HEC-RAS linked approach. Based on simulated 10-year data, the aquatic habitat was assessed using the weighted usable area (WUA), and minimum ecological streamflow was proposed from continuous above threshold (CAT) analysis. High water temperature was identified as the most influential habitat indicator, with its impact being particularly pronounced in shallow streamflow areas during hot summer seasons. The time-series analysis identified a 28% threshold of WUA/WUAmax, equivalent to a streamflow of 0.48 m3/s, as the minimum ecological streamflow necessary to mitigate the impact of rising water temperatures. The proposed habitat modeling method, linking watershed-stream models, could serve as a useful tool for ecological stream management.

Coupled natural-social water system in a subwatershed of the Tennessee River Basin.

Regional water cycle systems are increasingly characterized by the dual effect of natural and social processes, which have profound impacts on global water security. However, accurately interpreting the changes in the coupled natural-social water system and identifying the driving factors pose significant challenges. Here, we attempted to model a coupled natural-social water system in the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) watershed of the Tennessee River, United States. The study area features two social water cycle components: a local water transfer project and the Oak Ridge Wastewater Treatment Facility (ORWTF). We conducted the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling in the open-source light-weight QGIS software, with the synthesis of various climate and land use change scenarios in both historical periods (1980-2016) and future periods (2017-2050). We achieved more accurate and realistic model simulations when considering the social water cycle components, indicating that the social water cycle accounted for 13-18 % of the observed streamflow. Climate variation/change dominates natural runoff changes. Though land use and cover change (LUCC) had minimal effect on natural runoff, it had a profound impact on the process of runoff generation, i.e., surface runoff (RS) and subsurface runoff (RSS). Specifically, LUCC would be responsible for 152 % and 45 % of the changes in RS and RSS, respectively, in future periods. This study highlights the significance of artificial water discharge and withdrawal impacts on the water cycle and emphasizes the need for water resources management measures that fully consider natural-social hydrological processes.

Neonicotinoid insecticides in a large-scale agricultural basin system-Use, emission, transportation, and their contributions to the ecological risks in the Pearl River Basin, China.

Neonicotinoid pollution has increased rapidly and globally in recent years, posing significant risks to agricultural areas. Quantifying use and emission, transport and fate of these contaminants, and risks is critical for proper management of neonicotinoids in river basin. This study elucidates use and emissions of neonicotinoid pesticides in a typical large-scale agriculture basin of China, the Pearl River Basin, as well as the resulting agricultural non-point source pollution and related ecological risks using market surveys, data analysis, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Neonicotinoid use in the basin was estimated at 1361 t in 2019, of which 83.1 % was used in agriculture. After application, approximately 99.1 t neonicotinoids were transported to the Pearl River, accounting for 7.2 % of the total applied. Estimated aquatic concentrations of neonicotinoids showed three seasonal peaks. Several distinct groups of neonicotinoid chemicals can be observed in the Pearl River, as estimated by the model. An estimated 3.9 % of the neonicotinoids used were transported to the South China Sea. Based on the present risk assessment result, several neonicotinoids posed risks to aquatic organism. Therefore, the use of alternative products and/or reduced use is deemed necessary. This study provides novel insights into the fate and ecological risks of neonicotinoid insecticides in large-scale watersheds, and underscores the need for greater efficiency of use and extensive environmental monitoring.

Hydrological modelling using SWAT for the assessment of streamflow dynamics in the Ganga River basin.

Growing concerns over water availability arise from the problems of population growth, rapid industrialization, and human interferences, necessitating accurate streamflow estimation at the river basin scale. It is extremely challenging to access stream flow data of a transboundary river at a spatio-temporal scale due to data unavailability caused by water conflicts for assessing the water availability.Primarily, this estimation is done using rainfall-runoff models. The present study addresses this challenge by applying the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) for hydrological modelling, utilizing high-resolution geospatial inputs. Hydrological modelling using remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information System) through this model is initiated to assess the water availability in the Ganga River basin at different locations. The outputs are calibrated and validated using the observed station data from Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). To check the performance of the model, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination (R2), and RSR efficacy measures are initiated in ten stations using the observed and simulated stream flow data. The R2 values of eight stations range from 0.82 to 0.93, reflecting the efficacy of the model in rainfall-runoff modelling. Moreover, the results obtained from this hydrological modelling can serve as valuable resources for water resource planners and geographers for future reference.

Water availability and extreme events under climate change scenarios in an experimental watershed of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Climate change has diversified negative implications on environmental sustainability and water availability. Assessing the impacts of climate change is crucial to enhance resilience and future preparedness particularly at a watershed scale. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water balance components and extreme events in Piabanha watershed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In this study, extreme climate change scenarios were developed using a wide array of global climate models acquired from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6). Two extreme climate change scenarios, DryHot and WetCool, were integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model to evaluate their impacts on the hydrological dynamics in the watershed. The baseline SWAT model was first developed and evaluated using different model performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSC), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The model results illustrated an excellent model performance with metric values reaching 0.89 and 0.64 for monthly and daily time steps respectively in the calibration (2008 to 2017) and validation (2018 to 2023) periods. The findings of future climate change impacts assessment underscored an increase in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. In terms of streamflow, high-flow events may experience a 47.3 % increase, while low-flows could see an 76.6 % reduction. In the DryHot scenario, annual precipitation declines from 1657 to 1420 mm, with evapotranspiration reaching 54 % of precipitation, marking a 9 % rise compared to the baseline. Such changes could induce water stress in plants and lead to modifications on structural attributes of the ecosystem recognized as the Atlantic rainforest. This study established boundaries concerning the effects of climate change and highlighted the need for proactive adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts in the study watershed.

Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface runoff from urban land use (city of Lublin) under climate change.

An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026-2035 and 2046-2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%-32 022 kg/year and 89%-2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads.

Enhancing the SWAT model for creating efficient rainwater harvesting and reuse strategies to improve water resources management.

Rain barrels/cisterns are a type of green infrastructure (GI) practice that can help restore urban hydrology. Roof runoff captured and stored by rain barrels/cisterns can serve as a valuable resource for landscape irrigation, which would reduce municipal water usage and decrease runoff that other stormwater infrastructures need to treat. The expected benefits of rainwater harvesting and reuse with rain barrels/cisterns are comprehensive but neither systematically investigated nor well documented. A comprehensive tool is needed to help stakeholders develop efficient strategies to harvest rainwater for landscape irrigation with rain barrels/cisterns. This study further improved the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in simulating urban drainage networks by coupling the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)'s closed pipe drainage network (CPDN) simulation methods with the SWAT model that was previously improved for simulating the impacts of rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation with rain barrels/cisterns. The newly improved SWAT or SWAT-CPDN was applied to simulate the urban hydrology of the Brentwood watershed (Austin, TX) and evaluate the long-term effects of rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation with rain barrels/cisterns at the field and watershed scales. The results indicated that the SWAT-CPDN could improve the prediction accuracy of urban hydrology with good performance in simulating discharges (15 min, daily, and monthly), evapotranspiration (monthly), and leaf area index (monthly). The impacts of different scenarios of rainwater harvesting and reuse strategies (rain barrel/cistern sizes, percentages of suitable areas with rain barrels/cisterns implemented, auto landscape irrigation rates, and landscape irrigation starting times) on each indicator (runoff depth, discharge volume, peak runoff, peak discharge, combined sewer overflow-CSO, freshwater demand, and plant growth) at the field or watershed scale varied, providing insights for the long-term multi-functional impacts (stormwater management and rainwater harvesting/reuse) of rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation with rain barrels/cisterns. The varied rankings of scenarios found for achieving each goal at the field or watershed scale indicated that tradeoffs in rainwater harvesting and reuse strategies exist for various goals, and the strategies should be evaluated individually for different goals to optimize the strategies. Efficient rainwater harvesting and reuse strategies at the field or watershed scale can be created by stakeholders with the assist of the SWAT-CPDN to reduce runoff depth, discharge volume, peak runoff, peak discharge, CSO, and freshwater demand, as well as improve plant growth.

Interpretable machine learning guided by physical mechanisms reveals drivers of runoff under dynamic land use changes.

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their "black box" nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25 °C, and 15 °C, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

Balancing river water pollution and agricultural development: A tradeoff threshold approach.

Balancing environmental protection and social-economic development in agricultural land use management is a dilemma for decision-makers. Based on the modelling of the impacts of land use changes on river water pollution by SWAT model, the tradeoff between tea plantation expansion and river water quality was detected. SWAT model performs well in simulating the non-point source (NPS) pollution in agricultural watershed. The results showed that the tea plantation area expanded dramatically from 44 km2 in 2000 to 169 km2 in 2020 at the high cost of forest land. Consequently, the mean contents of NO3--N and TN have significantly increased by 100% and 91% respectively in the past 20 years. And the NO3--N in river water accounted for over 80% of TN in the tea plantation area. The NO3--N and TN concentrations were positively related with the proportions of tea plantation area (Tea%) at different periods. The high pollution levels of NO3--N and TN are priority control targets for river water quality management. The results indicated that the proportion of tea plantation thresholds lead to abrupt changes in river water quality. When the Tea% exceeded 3.0% in 2000, the probability of N pollution increased sharply. Whereas in 2020, it is suggested that the Tea% should not exceeds 18% to avoid sudden deterioration of water quality. The critical interval value of the Tea% for sudden change in N pollution showed an obvious increase tendency. The accelerating of nutrient pollution in rivers reduced the sensitivity of water quality to tea plantation expansion. Our results can provide new insights and empirical evidence for balancing the tradeoff between agricultural development and river water quality protection by demonstrating the carrying capacity threshold of river water environment for the expansion tea plantation.

Enhanced SWAT calibration through intelligent range-based parameter optimization.

Hydrological models are vital tools in environmental management. Weaknesses in model robustness for hydrological parameters transfer uncertainties to the model outputs. For streamflow, the optimized parameters are the primary source of uncertainty. A reliable calibration approach that reduces prediction uncertainty in model simulations is crucial for enhancing model robustness and reliability. The optimization of parameter ranges is a key aspect of parameter calibration, yet there is a lack of literature addressing the optimization of parameter ranges in hydrological models. In this paper, we introduce a parameter calibration strategy that applies a clustering technique, specifically the Self-Organizing Map (SM), to intelligently navigate the parameter space during the calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for monthly streamflow simulation in the Baishan Basin, Jilin Province, China. We selected the representative algorithm, the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), from the commonly used SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs for comparison. We developed three schemes: SUFI-2, SUFI-2-Narrowing Down (SUFI-2-ND), and SM. Multiple diagnostic error metrics were used to compare simulation accuracy and prediction uncertainty. Among all schemes, SM outperformed the others in describing watershed streamflow, particularly excelling in the simulation of spring snowmelt runoff (baseflow period). Additionally, the prediction uncertainty was effectively controlled, demonstrating the SM's adaptability and reliability in the interval optimization process. This provides managers with more credible prediction results, highlighting its potential as a valuable calibration tool in hydrological modeling.

The water cycle of small catchments impacted with tailings mudflows: A study in the Ferro-Carvão watershed after the breakup of B1 dam in Brumadinho.

The B1 tailings dam of Córrego do Feijão iron-ore mine owned by Vale, S.A. company collapsed in 25 January 2019 releasing to the Ferro-Carvão stream watershed (32.6 km2) as much as 11.7 Mm3 of mine waste. A major share (8.9 Mm3) has been deposited along the stream channel and margins forming a 2.7 km2 patch. The main purpose of this study was to question whether the tailings deposit impacted the local water cycle and how. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model, the water balance components of 36 hydrologic response units (HRU) were calculated for pre- (S1) and post- (S2) B1 dam rupture scenarios represented by appropriate soil, land use and tailings cover. The results revealed an increase of evapotranspiration from S1 to S2, related to the sudden removal of vegetation from the stream valley and replacement with a blanket of mud, which raised the exposure of Earth's surface to sunlight and hence soil evaporation. For 11 HRU (10.3 km2) located around the tailings deposit, a decrease in lateral flow was observed, accompanied by an increase in percolation and a slight increase in groundwater flow. In this case, the water balance changes observed between S1 and S2 reflected a barrier effect imposed to the lateral flows by the tailings, which shifted the flows towards the vertical direction (percolation). Thus, the water followed an easier vertical route until reaching the shallow aquifer and being converted into groundwater flow. As per the modelling outcomes, the hydrologic impacts of B1 dam rupture are relevant because they affected 1/3 of Ferro-Carvão stream watershed, and hence claim for the complete removal of the tailings.

The response of non-point source pollution to climate change in an orchard-dominant coastal watershed.

China is the largest global orchard distribution area, where high fertilization rates, complex terrain, and uncertainties associated with future climate change present challenges in managing non-point source pollution (NPSP) in orchard-dominant growing areas (ODGA). Given the complex processes of climate, hydrology, and soil nutrient loss, this study utilized an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT-CO2) to investigate the impact of future climate on NPSP in ODGA in a coastal basin of North China. Our investigation focused on climate-induced variations in hydrology, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) losses in soil, considering three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Research results indicated that continuous changes in CO2 levels significantly influenced evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield in ODGA. Influenced by sandy soils, nitrate leaching through percolation was the principal pathway for N loss in the ODGA. Surface runoff was identified as the primary pathway for P loss. Compared to the reference period (1971-2000), under three future climate scenarios, the increase in precipitation of ODGA ranged from 15% to 28%, while the growth rates of P loss and surface runoff were the most significant, both exceeding 120%. Orchards in the northwest basin proved susceptible to nitrate leaching, while others were more sensitive to N and P losses via surface runoff. Implementing targeted strategies, such as augmenting organic fertilizer usage and constructing terraced fields, based on ODGA's response characteristics to future climate, could effectively improve the basin's environment.

Calibration using R-programming and parallel processing at the HUC12 subbasin scale in the Mid-Atlantic region: Development of national SWAT hydrologic calibration.

The first phase of a national scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model calibration effort at the HUC12 (Hydrologic Unit Code 12) watershed scale was demonstrated over the Mid-Atlantic Region (R02), consisting of 3036 HUC12 subbasins. An R-programming based tool was developed for streamflow calibration including parallel processing for SWAT-CUP (SWAT- Calibration and Uncertainty Programs) to streamline the computational burden of calibration. Successful calibration of streamflow for 415 gages (KGE ≥0.5, Kling-Gupta efficiency; PBIAS ≤15%, Percent Bias) out of 553 selected monitoring gages was achieved in this study, yielding calibration parameter values for 2106 HUC12 subbasins. Additionally, 67 more gages were calibrated with relaxed PBIAS criteria of 25%, yielding calibration parameter values for an additional 150 HUC12 subbasins. This first phase of calibration across R02 increases the reliability, uniformity, and replicability of SWAT-related hydrological studies. Moreover, the study presents a comprehensive approach for efficiently optimizing large-scale multi-site calibration.